tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22816888414331698552024-03-13T19:43:51.162-07:00TheValueBettor Mid-Week Racing BlogThe Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-54689603741524111372019-10-10T03:00:00.000-07:002019-10-10T03:06:14.440-07:00The end of the blog ! - but not of the previews...<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">For the past couple of years, I</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">’ve posted race previews on this blog, during the TVB pre-season; the TVB post season - and mid-week, during the main TVB season. </span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">The blog has served a purpose, in enabling me to get my thoughts out to a bigger audience than just the TVB subscribers - however, that has effectively been the extent of it…</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">I did originally hope that my postings might generate a bit of discussion - and whilst there have been a few comments made, most of the time, it has simply been a monologue from me.</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">Partly because of this, I have decided to stop the blog.</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">However, you will doubtless be pleased to hear (!) that I intend to continue posting my thoughts - just in a a different place…</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">Instead of the blog, all of my race previews (pre-season, post-season and mid-week), will now be posted on sub-forums in the main TVB forum: </span><a href="http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/"><u><span class="15" style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/</span></u></a><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">Posting on the TVB forum will make it easier for the existing TVB subscribers to follow (as I already post extensively on there).</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">Also, I’m hopeful that posting on a forum - rather than a blog - will encourage a few more comments (as forum as designed for inter-action - and blogs aren’t !).</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">Anyway, if you do want to keep reading my thoughts - and you are not already subscribing to the main TVB service - then you will need to </span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt;">follow the above link and register for access to the forum.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">Once you have done that, you will be able to view - and post on - all of the non-member sub-forums (and it will be in one of those, that I will post my previews).</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">I’ll look forward to seeing most of you in the TVB forum (it’s a very nice place - honestly :) )</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">TVB.</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-63603266669503935122019-04-19T13:59:00.002-07:002019-04-19T14:01:55.775-07:00Saturday April 20thThere are 3 NH meetings tomorrow - but there is little of interest at either Newton Abbot or Carlisle, so all of the attention is on Haydock...<br />
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It’ hosts the final of the Challenger series and the first six races on the card are each worth £50,000. Consequently they are competitive events !<br />
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As I mentioned last Saturday you need to tread carefully at this time of the year: the ground will be quick and it's impossible to know what form some of the horses will be in.<br />
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Certainly a few of the results at the Cheltenham midweek meeting with difficult to fathom - though unsurprisingly the market managed to work out most of them !<br />
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<b>Haydock</b><br />
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<b>1:30</b><br />
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Martila is the one that interests me most in this.<br />
She ran well on her most recent outing when fifth at Kelso.<br />
That was in a better race than tomorrow's and she was only beaten 5 lengths.<br />
Prior to that run, she had won over the same course and rather surprisingly gets to race tomorrow from a mark 1lb lower.<br />
The step up in trip is an unknown - though it may unlock some improvement.<br />
At a price of 10/1 this evening, back against her own sex, she is worth a small interest…<br />
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<i>Selection: Martila at 10/1</i><br />
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<b>2:05</b><br />
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With 16 runners this race will take a bit of figuring out !<br />
That said I quite like the look of Casa Tall.<br />
He was last seen competing in the Martin Pipe hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.<br />
Ultimately he finish well beaten in that contest - however he was still travelling strongly rounding the home turn and just seemed to run out of gas in the final couple of furlongs.<br />
He drops back half a mile in trip tomorrow and has also been dropped 2lb by the handicapper.<br />
Obviously tomorrow's race is not as strong and whilst there are 3 or 4 possible dangers Casa Tall looks like a reasonable bet at 8/1.<br />
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<i>Selection: Casa Tall at 8/1</i><br />
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<b>2:40</b><br />
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It confuses things a little that Alan King runs two in the race, but I'm sure that Salmanazar is capable of winning a race of this nature.<br />
Certainly he ran well enough last time when third at Newbury in a similar contest.<br />
He's been dropped a pound in the ratings for that run and there is no reason why he shouldn't run well again tomorrow.<br />
A price of 8/1 in an 8 horse race with no stand-out contender, makes him a ‘value’ bet.<br />
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<i>Selection: Salmanazar at 8/1</i><br />
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<b>3:15</b><br />
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The fair bit of guesswork required but I can't resist getting involved with Sunnytahliateigan again…<br />
I tipped him earlier in the season when he was a disappointing 3rd of 6 at Doncaster.<br />
That was on the back of a really promising seasonal debut run at Cheltenham, when he also finished third - but in a much more competitive race.<br />
If he can recapture that form, then he must be capable of going close tomorrow.<br />
In truth, I don't know what's gone wrong the last twice (he’s also disappointed at Warwick) but the fact has been off the course for over 100 days suggests he may have had an issue.<br />
If he's back in the form he showed at Cheltenham, then he could prove tough to beat tomorrow from a mark 4lb lower.<br />
There is a slight question mark over the trip - but hopefully that won’t prove issue.<br />
Of his rivals, then Skidoosh is the one I fear most back on his favoured quick ground.<br />
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<i>Selection: Sunnytahliateigan at 10/1</i><br />
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-53319294834632442572019-04-12T14:02:00.004-07:002019-04-13T01:10:16.808-07:00Saturday April 13thThe 2018-19 TVB season may have ended last Saturday - but the NH season itself, will continue until the end of this month.<br />
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In fairness, there is some really good NH racing during April: Ayr, today and tomorrow: Cheltenham, next week; Fairyhouse, next weekend - and then Sandown, the weekend after that.<br />
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You may well ask, why I don’t continue the TVB season until the end of April ?! - but the reality is, whilst the racing is likely to be very good - figuring out what will happen in the races, just gets harder….<br />
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Horses who have been on the go all winter, will start going ‘over the top’ in April; whilst those who have been given a winter break, will begin to hit form.<br />
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Knowing whether a particular animal is ready to do itself justice, is therefore extremely hard - yet that is arguably the most important piece of the race solving puzzle…<br />
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As a consequence, I’m disinclined to get involved with this part of the season - officially speaking anyway - though ofcourse, I invariably have a view on things…<br />
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That’s certainly the case at Ayr tomorrow, where the card kicks off with 5 excellent races - and I have an opinion, on each of them !<br />
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<b>Ayr </b><br />
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<b>1:25</b><br />
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I tipped Saint Leo on his penultimate outing, over tomorrows course and distance.<br />
He looked set to win that race - but took a crashing fall at the fourth last.<br />
Understandably, he was sent over hurdles on his most recent outing - presumably to rebuild his confidence.<br />
He didn’t run badly either, finishing sixth at Kelso. As a result however, the handicapper has reduced his mark by 2lb - and his chase mark by the same amount.<br />
If he had won on his penultimate outing, then he would probably have gone up by 6lb - so arguably, he is 8lb ‘well in’ tomorrow ! (with scope for further improvement).<br />
I accept that’s a positive take on things - but I also think it’s a legitimate argument.<br />
Certainly, I think he has a very good chance tomorrow. My main concern is with quick ground, as he is unproven on it (it may not be an issue - it’s impossible to say).<br />
Of his opponents: then I think Azzuri wants taking on, at the price (currently 3/1).<br />
I can see an argument for Magic Saint - but equally he still has a bit to prove: and whilst Duke of Navan, Forest Bihan and Nuts Well, should all run their race - they are all exposed and have little in hand of their mark.<br />
In the circumstances, Saint Leo is definitely worth a risk, at around 9/1.<br />
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<i>Selection: Saint Leo at 9/1</i><br />
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<b>1:55</b><br />
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Drinks Interval is the one that interests me most in this..<br />
She was really impressive, when winning at Chepstow back in October - and whist she’s not repeated that form in 4 subsequent outings, there have been good reasons…<br />
She fell next time out at Market Rasen; and then didn’t run too badly behind Magic of Light at Newbury (on which form, she holds Molly the Dolly); she was then unable to lead at Doncaster; before finding the RSA too hot, on her most recent outing.<br />
She ran with some credit in that race, however - and a 6lb drop in her rating now means that she is quite attractively weighted, on her first run in a handicap chase.<br />
She should relish the quick ground - and may get an uncontested lead.<br />
If she does, then she could prove hard to pass.<br />
In fairness, there are a few others in the race, who look potentially dangerous:<br />
Azzerti and Onefortheroadtom, chief amongst them. However, both are unproven over tomorrows trip, which has to be a concern.<br />
Claud and Goldie will have no issues with the trip - and I could see him running a decent race.<br />
He could easily be 20/1+ in the morning - and would hold some EW appeal at that price.<br />
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<i>Selection: Drinks Interval at 9/1</i><br />
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<b>2:25 </b><br />
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The races get harder to solve as the card progresses - and this one looks a real can of worms !<br />
I’d be happy enough to oppose favourite, Nube Negra - it’s finding one to take him on with, that’s the tricky part !<br />
Suffice to say, no result would massively surprise me, but if forced to side with one, I would probably opt for Irish challenger, Pearl of the West.<br />
He won well at Cheltenham in October - and was then given a 5 month break before reappearing on the AW at Dundalk, 2 weeks ago.<br />
He ran well enough that night, to finish second - but I suspect the main purpose of the race was to get him spot on for a return to hurdles.<br />
Conditions should be spot on for him tomorrow - it’s really just a question of whether he is good enough to win a race of this stature…<br />
Plenty of others can be given half chances, at big prices.<br />
Anemoi is probably the outsider who interests me most - and he certainly holds some appeal at 25/1 (maybe EW).<br />
Equus Amadeus, Irish Roe and Brain Power are all capable of getting involved - even if they are also equally capable of not featuring !<br />
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<i>Selection: Pearl of the West at 10/1</i><br />
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<b>3:00 </b><br />
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Relatively speaking, this is the least competitive race on the card - but still not an easy one to call.<br />
Ballywood is probably the one to beat - but there is no margin in a price of 9/4, especially with him stepping up in trip.<br />
That said, it holds more appeal than Secret Investor at the same price - particularly as the latter is held on Kempton form, by Castafiore…<br />
She finished a fair way in front of Secret Investor that day: with the pair finishing second and fourth, behind Bags Grove.<br />
On exactly the same terms it’s difficult to see why Secret Investor will turn things around tomorrow - assuming that Castafiore is in the same form.<br />
In truth, that is not guaranteed, as she subsequently ran in the JLT at the Cheltenham festival - and there is a chance that race will have left a mark.<br />
However, if it hasn’t then she is definitely the bet, at around 7/1.<br />
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<i>Selection: Castafiore at 7/1</i><br />
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<b>3:35</b><br />
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Impulsive Star provided one of the high-lights of the TVB season, when I tipped him to win the Classic chase at Warwick, in January - and I think he could be capable of winning this, as well.<br />
He followed up that win, by being pulled up in the NH chase at Cheltenham - but I don’t think the rain softened ground suited him that day.<br />
Back on a decent surface - and off a mark just 6lb higher than at Warwick, he’s got a real chance tomorrow.<br />
Big River strikes me as the most interesting of the market leaders, following his eye catching run behind Beware the Bear, at Cheltenham.<br />
He’s 14/1 on BF this evening - and looks worth having on side at that price.<br />
Chances can obviously be given to plenty of others: but at very big prices, both Brian Boranha and Kingswell Theatre, also hold some appeal.<br />
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<i>Selection: Impulsive Star at 20/1</i>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-63707321210130790852019-03-21T13:21:00.003-07:002019-03-21T13:22:03.283-07:00Friday 22nd MarchWith the TVB season ending in a fortnights time, I doubt there will be many more posts on the mid week blog, this season…<br />
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The first 2 months of the year are always very quiet.<br />
Even if the weather doesn’t takes its toll, there are precious few decent races run during the mid week…<br />
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Then ofcourse, March arrives - and brings Cheltenham - followed swiftly by Aintree…<br />
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However, tomorrow is one of those rare days, when there is some reasonable mid week racing.<br />
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It’s the first day of a 2 day meeting at Newbury, and they’ve put on an interesting and varied card…<br />
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<b>Newbury</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>2:20</b><br />
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This isn’t an easy race to call (the case with just about every race on the card !) - but Tanit River looks quite interesting, with Richard Johnson on board…<br />
The horse is not very reliable - but he has got significant ability and is now on a mark just 1lb higher than the one he won from at Sandown, last February.<br />
That was a fair race - and whilst he has done little in his 3 subsequent outings, I’m not too worried about that.<br />
He raced with a fair bit of enthusiasm last time - in first time cheek pieces.<br />
He didn’t get home that day - and they have now been dispensed with - but they did suggest that his fire still burns.<br />
The booking of Dickie is an interesting move - and course, trip and ground should all be fine.<br />
Most of the otters can be given a chance - with nothing standing out as a particular danger.<br />
Voie dans Voite is an understandable favourite, on the back of a very good run last time.<br />
However, he has a poor win record - and holds limited appeal at a price of 5/2.<br />
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<i>Selection: Tanit River at 10/1</i><br />
<br />
<b>4:00</b><br />
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Another very open looking race, where half a dozen could be given a chance.<br />
That said, I could be quite keen on Kings Walk.<br />
He ran very well last time, when finishing second to an extremely well handicapped horse.<br />
He’s been raised 3lb for the effort - but that only puts him on the same mark that he won from over hurdles, last season.<br />
The concerns are the trip (he’s unproven over 3 miles) - and the form of his stable.<br />
As a consequence, I would be disinclined to chase his price down - even though I think he has the ability to win.<br />
Again, most of his rivals can be given a chance - with Red Rising just about the most interesting of those, at this evenings prices (around 10/1).<br />
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<i>Selection: Kings Walk</i><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>4:30 </b><br />
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A class 2 handicap during the mid week is a rare thing..!<br />
Nube Negra is an understandable favourite - but 5/2 looks too short.<br />
He seemed to be travelling well last time - but he fell - and it’s never appealing to take a short price on a horse running on the back of a fall…<br />
It’s yet another race where cases can be made for quite a few - but I’d be inclined to take a small risk on a couple at decent prices…<br />
Late Night Lilly is a stablemate of Nubre Negra - and she was noted making good late headway last time, on her first run for over a year.<br />
If she can build on that, I could see her outrunning her odds…<br />
Prince Charmin is the other one of interest, at the prices.<br />
He ran well on his debut for Tim Vaughan last time - and has subsequently undergone a wind op.<br />
The booking of a useful 7lb claimer is an interesting move - and again, he appears to have been under-estimated by the betting.<br />
You should be able to dutch the pair of them at odds of around 6/1 - and that holds more appeal from a betting perspective, than the likes of Sunshade, Maquisard, Zanza and William H Bonney (who are all a similar price).<br />
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<i>Selections: Late Night Lilly at 12/1 and Prince Charmin at 12/1</i>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-1938782092484249992019-02-28T02:49:00.000-08:002019-02-28T02:49:09.629-08:00Thursday 28th February<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s not been easy finding mid-week races to preview, during February…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I don’t like to get involved with anything below class 3, because there is too much guess work required (and the races are far more susceptible to ‘plots’ !)</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, there has been very few class 3 races run this month (never mind anything better !) - so my mid-week output has been limited…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Things are a bit better today:</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 4 meetings - and whilst opportunities are limited at Musselburgh and Clonmel, there are some interesting races at both Taunton and Ludlow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Taunton</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:45 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are a couple of official ‘eye catchers’ running in this, in the shape of Whoshotwho and Bastien.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both caught the eye on their penultimate runs - before disappointing last time out (which generally isn’t the idea !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, it’s relatively easy to forgive Bastien his most recent effort, as that was in soft ground at Lingfield.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">His previous run at Huntingdon, behind Bags Groove, still reads as decent form - and he doesn’t look badly handicapped off a mark of 132.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s harder to forgive Whoshotwho his latest run.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was already beaten when unseating at Ludlow - and there was no obvious reason for the poor effort (he was sent off a short priced fav).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s been given over a month to recover - so could bounce back today.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, at the prices, I would rather be with Bastien…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Bastien at 11/2</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>4:20</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I don’t like selecting favourites - and this isn’t a particularly weak race - however, I’ll be surprised if Colonial Dreams doesn’t win…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The form of his last time out second to Ballymoy in a class 1 race at Ascot, is of a different level to that of most of his rivals in todays race.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s been raised 3lb for the run - but I’ll be surprised if he can’t win from a mark of 132.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Interestingly, he’s Nico de Boinvilles only mount on the card - and he’s chosen to ride at Taunton rather than travel Ludlow, where Nicky Henderson has a couple of fancied runners.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ignoring him, I would struggle to choose in the race, as a case could be made for most of the others.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, I do think he could be different class - and even at 11/8, I’d be tempted to get involved…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Colonial Dreams at 11/8</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ludlow</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:35</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Venetia has been in hot form recently and I think Uhlan Bute can provide her with another winner in this.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was a little unlucky not to win a similar race over course and distance a week ago - and gets to run off the same mark this afternoon.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In theory, there is a chance he might not have recovered from last weeks exertions - but Venetia is a master at turning them out again quickly…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s possible to pick holes in the case of all of his rivals - whereas he looks very solid.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Unfortunately, he’s been backed in to 9/4 this morning (not helped by the fact that Andy Holding has tipped him) - but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his price drift a little…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At around 3/1, he would represent a fair bet.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Uhlan Bute</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>4:10 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m surprised that Mish Mash can be backed at 25/1 for this.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I guess her case isn’t water tight - and she’s facing some in-form rivals - but I still think she is worth a risk.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Certainly her handicap mark looks feasible - as she’s back on the same rating that she finished second from at Hereford in November.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Todays step up in trip is a slight concern - but Ludlow is a tight track and the relatively quick ground should ensure it’s not a major stamina test.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The main attraction however, is her trainer and Jockey…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Henry Daly tends to target his horses at Ludlow, so they are always worth looking out for.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The real eye catcher though, is the booking of crack 5lb claimer Jonjo O’Neil Jr.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Today is the first time he’s ridden for Daly - and Mish Mash is his only ride on the card.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That alone piques my interest - and encourages me to try and build a case for her !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If she’s going to run well, I would expect her to be backed - so you can either wait for market support and take a shorter price with more confidence: or back her now at 25/1 and keep your fingers crossed !!</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Selection: Mish Mash at 25/1</i></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-83782525928524674672019-02-14T12:41:00.004-08:002019-02-14T12:47:07.276-08:00Friday 15th February<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Things have been very quiet on the mid-week blog, since Christmas…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The relatively poor racing at this time of year, always makes it tricky - but the lack of rain and resultant unseasonably quick ground, has seen lots of very small fields, which makes previewing the racing, a little pointless..</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Worse still, the last twice that I have posted on here, the racing hasn’t even taken place !</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">On the first occasion, because of frost - and last week, because the outbreak of equine flu.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m beginning to feel a bit fated !</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I don’t usually preview racing on a Friday, as I like to prepare for the weekend (and this one looks as if it will be particularly busy).</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, there’s very nice meeting (hopefully !) taking place at Sandown tomorrow - so, considering the lack of recent action, I thought I should make the time to preview a few of the races…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
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<b>Sandown</b></span></span><br />
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<b>12:50 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">A competitive race to start proceedings - and I’ll offer 3 against the field:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Maquisard is the class horse in the race (hence top weight ! ) - and he ran really well to finish third in a better class contest at Kempton over Christmas.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, his jumping can let him down - and I’d be a little worried about his ability to get up the Sandown hill.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Each way may be the best policy with him - and a price of 9/1 just about allows that…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The second one of interest, is Dorking Cock.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He very inexperienced, but ran well on his handicap debut last time, at Wetherby.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Off the same mark, I would expect him to run well again - though his price of 6/1 is quite tight.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The final one to note, is Extra Bald.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He is making his handicap debut, after just 3 runs over hurdles.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He could be anything - and so is quite risky.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, the fitting of first time cheek pieces is an interesting move - and he doesn’t appear too badly treated.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The market will probably advise on his chance - and he’s already a bit short to be taking a risk with (8/1).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">That said, he could easily go off even shorter, if he is fancied…!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Selection: Maquisard EW at 9/1 </span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">1:20 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Darebin is the one that interests me most in this.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He won a better class race over course and distance, on his penultimate outing - before finishing fifth, again over course and distance, on his most recent run.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He was behind stablemate. Not Another Muddle, that day - but is 11lb better off tomorrow (including his jockeys allowance).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s interesting that Gary Moore again runs both horses in the race - and Not Another Muddle heading the weights, helps Darebin.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Of the others, then Grey Gold is quite interesting.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He’s 14 now - and clearly in decline. However, he runs from a career low mark tomorrow, in ideal conditions - and has a good record fresh.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">At 16/1 this evening, he could be worth a tiny play…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">1:50 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Kalashnikov should win this - but I wouldn’t want to be taking 4/7 on him to do so…</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He faces a couple of decent rivals, in the shape of Glen Forsa and Dalila du Seuil - and I woouldn’t be too surprised too see either of them give him a real fight.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The issue for both however, could be the trip - as they would prefer further.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">That said, Dalial du Seuil in particular, doesn’t seem to lack pace, so if she fully tuned, Kalshnikov could have his work cut out, conceding her 7lb.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In truth, it’s probably a race to watch, as it may well have festival implications for all 3 of the main players…</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">2:25</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Queenohearts and Danse Idol are closely matched in this, based on their most recent run, in a listed race at Haydock.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Queenohearts came out on top in that race - but the 5lb weight turnaround, means there should be very little between the pair tomorrow.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Rather than try and choose, it might make more sense to take them both on.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Dulhallow Gesture is an option - but so to is Liberty Bella.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">She’s won her last 2 races in the style of an improving mare - and the fact she’s comes from an unfashionable stable, means that she’s likely to be under-estimated in the betting.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Certainly, the 7/1 on offer this evening, looks decent value, in what appears to be a pretty tight race.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Selection: Liberty Bella at 7/1</span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">4:05 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">This is another very open looking race, in which a case can be made for quite a few of the runners.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Strong Pursuit would certainly be of interest, if he’s well backed - but as he’s returning from a 400+ day absence, there’s a lot of guesswork required.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Certainly, his price of 4/1 this evening, is too short to be taking a risk on…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Kansas City Chief is more tempting - and it’s interesting that he’s already been backed this evening.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s not easy to decide if he’s well handicapped - as he’s generally run over hurdles, since he moved to the UK.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, a mark of 133 doesn’t seem unreasonable.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The fitting of first time cheek pieces could be significant - as could the fact that Tom Scudamore is in the saddle, when he could presumably have ridden Two Smokin Barrels.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">He can be backed at 12/1 this evening - and may be worth a small risk at that price.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
<i>Selection: Kansas City Chief at 12/1</i></span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-49391899245953756122019-02-06T13:12:00.002-08:002019-02-06T13:19:43.106-08:00Thursday 7th February<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">For the first time in over a fortnight, the weather has relented - and there is some reasonable mid-week racing taking place.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s always a danger that the weather will scupper proceedings at this time of the year - and in fairness, things have been much better this season, than they were last.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, even when the weather isn’t a problem, the quality of the mid-week racing in Jan and Feb is often poor - so it’s a relatively rare day, when both things align !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 4 meetings tomorrow: at Huntingdon, Doncaster and Ffos Las in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland - and all 4 tracks host at least a race or two of interest...</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Huntingdon</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:00</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The days best quality racing takes place at Huntingdon - and this listed race, is the best quality race on the card.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It also contains, what is likely to prove, the most talented horse running on the day, in the shape of Angels Breath.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s the current ante-post favourite for the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, on the back of his debut win at Ascot, in December.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That was a grade 2 event - and he won it very nicely - though in truth, it’s relatively easy to pick holes in the form.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, it was a very good first effort - and the fact that Nicky Henderson was prepared to run him in a grade 2 event on debut, suggests he is very decent.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We may found out tomorrow, just how decent, as all 5 of his rivals are fair sorts, all with potential themselves.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He also steps up half a mile in trip - which is an interesting move.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Huntingdon is a sharp course, so the trip is unlikely to be an issue - but we should certainly learn a bit more about him…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s impossible to oppose - but equally, unbackable at 1/2.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If there is a bet in the race, it could be I K Brunel, each way at 20/1 (or without the fav, tomorrow), as he shaped with distinct promise behind Elixir de Nutz on his hurdles debut at Cheltenham.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, this is probably more a race to watch and learn from, than it is to bet in…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:35</span></b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">With a question mark, of some sort, over all of the runners, I suspect this a race where the market will prove very revealing…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That’s certainly likely to be the case, for Master Blueyes and Misteron, who are both returning from long breaks: but also for Malaya, on the back of falls on his 2 most recent outings…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">All 3 would be dangerous at their best - but unless they are the subject of significant market support, they should probably be passed over…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eric le Rouge and Not that Fuisse, are progressive sorts who are moving up the handicap - it’s hard to know whether the handicapper has got them yet: whilst Thistle do Nicely, is making his handicap debut - and it’s hard to know whether he is well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">By a process of elimination, I end up with Townsend.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He is having his third run for Nigel Twiston Davies - and is potentially well handicapped based on his old Irish form.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He showed up quite well last time at Hereford - and has undergone a wind op since then.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He too comes with risks - but they appear to have been factored into his early price, more than is the case for most of his rivals…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s not a race you could be confident about (certainly without seeing the market moves) - but at tonight’s prices, I think he’s just about the best bet.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Townsend at 7/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Doncaster</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:45 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This looks an open race, where a case of sorts can be made for most of the runners…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sliding Doors strikes me as just about the most interesting one, in first time cheek pieces.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran well last time, to be beaten just a neck, at Ludlow - and now has a 7lb claimer in the saddle.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is s slightly stronger race - but he seems to be improving and so should go close…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The 2 others of major interest at tonights prices, are Skidoosh (8/1) and Dans le Vent (10/1).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Like the main selection, they are relatively unexposed, and so should have room for improvement.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dans Le Vent is also wearing first time blinkers - and the way he races (lazily !), suggests they could have a positive impact.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My inclination will be to spread small stakes across the 3 of them, if their prices drift a little, in the morning…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Sliding Doors at 6/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ffos Las</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:35</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is probably the best betting race of the day - and it contains the days best bet !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Johanos ran really well in a decent race at Newbury, in December.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He finished fourth that day - but travelled strongly for most of the contest.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It wasn’t surprising that he tired eventually, as it was his first run for 18 months.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ordinarily, there would be a concern on a second run back, after a break - however he’s been given 50 days to recover - which should be plenty.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It also strike me as interesting that he is running at Ffos Las.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s a course renowned for it’s heavy winter ground - and Johanoss 2 career wins have both been achieved on heavy going.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">With his stable in really good form: and a 7lb claimer taking over in the saddle, Johanos has plenty to recommend him.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, it’s a competitive enough race, with 18 runners - but only half of them probably count, so 8/1 isn’t too bad a price.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ice Cool Champs, Cobolobo and Scotchtown, strike me as the main dangers - with Lord Bryan an outsider to note, if seriously backed…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Selection: Johanos at 8/1</span></span></i></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-46781180055168777282019-01-22T14:09:00.002-08:002019-01-22T23:39:58.363-08:00Wednesday 23rd January<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’ll only be previewing one day on the blog, this week…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There was little of interest either yesterday or today: whilst I be covering Thursday on the Main service (it’s Thystes chase day at Gowran Park) - and I tend to opt out of Fridays, as I like to spend the time to preparing for the weekend…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">When I looked at tomorrows cards earlier in the week, I was quite optimistic.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are a couple of class 3 handicaps (which is what I tend to target, during the mid-week) on both the Catterick and Hereford cards.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However the final declarations for 3 of the 4 races, have proved to be disappointing…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The 2 Catterick races have only yielded 7 runners between them: whilst there is only 4 declared for one of the races at Hereford.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is a decent field for the other Hereford race - but to complete tonights preview, I’ve had to look at a couple of novice events on the Hereford card…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In truth, whilst the 3 races I’ve ended up looking at, are all fair contests, I don’t have a particularly strong view on any of them - so if you do choose to follow the selections, I would suggest keeping stakes to a minimum !!</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hereford</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:45 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d be disinclined to support Mulcahys Hill at 6/4 in this - the question is, what to take him on with…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Second favourite, Sully D’Oc AA (what a ridiculous name !) is making his UK debut - so it’s all guesswork with him (though the market will probably guide).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Aintree My Dream is the obvious one to side with - though I might be more inclined to take a chance with Wilde Blue Yonder…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s been struggling to jump hurdles recently - never mind fences - and hit one early, on his chasing debut last time out.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However that was in a fair race at Newbury - and he did mange to get round..</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If he’s learnt from that experience, I could see him running well tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I think it adds to his case that he’s already 10 and has had plenty of issue, so connections won’t want to be messing around with him. I suspect that every race he runs in, he’ll be trying to win (and alas, you can’t say that of every runner that steps on a track !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s 13/2 this evening - but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see closer to 8/1, at some point tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Wilde Blue Yonder </i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:15 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is a really interesting novice hurdle - in which I could give at least half a dozen a chance (which is unusual for a race of this nature).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">More than that, I would struggle to choose between the 6 - though that’s mainly because there is limited form to assess.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Morning Vicar, Bold Plan and Diomed des Mottes, have all got a chance - but the market is wise to them.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d be more inclined to take a chance on Lord du Mesnil, Talktomenow or Mahari.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The last named would be very interesting, if Kerry Lee was in any kind of form - but she’s not, so he can only be watched.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Talktome now disappointed last time - but has a definite chance on the form of his hurdling debut behind Getaway Trump at Plumpton (that one is now vying for favouritism for the Betfair hurdle).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, if forced, I would probably side with Lord du Mesnil.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He travelled strongly in a good class handicap last time - but didn’t get home.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s subsequently had a wind op - and drops back 3 furlongs tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s more exposed than most of his rivals - but arguably has just about the best form in the book.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I think he has a very good chance of placing - and a fair chance of winning (though it is quite possible that one of his rivals will improve past him). </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Lord du Mesnil at 8/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:20 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I hoped I might be able to fathom this race - but I’m struggling…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Henryville was an official eye catcher on his most recent start - and I tipped him 10 days ago, when he was due to run at Kelso.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, he bolted before the start that day - and was thankfully, withdrawn…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">After those antics, it would be hard to support him again - even though I’m sure he is very well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It also doesn’t add to his case the fact that he will be running tomorrow, over a trip that will stretch him - on ground that’s likely to be a bit too soft.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He is still half tempting at a big price (around 20/1) - but objectively, he should probably just be watched (though he could make a good back to lay in running play - assuming he consents to start !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The trouble is, I’m struggling to find anything in the race which I can make a solid case for:</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dr Des and Conna Cross could both be interesting, if they stay the trip - but that is far from guaranteed; </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Arthur's Gift is also quite interesting - but the ran poorly last time.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">And it’s the same story with just about all of the runners - as there is a significant question mark hanging over each of them.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Obviously, one will positively answer their question - it’s just not easy to figure out which one it will be !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bramble Brook strikes me as maybe the best option. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The issue with him is his most recent outing (last in a 3 horse race) - but prior to that he had run well on his seasonal debut, in a fair contest at Uttoxoter.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He should be fine with the trip and ground - so if his last run is ignored, he can be given a good chance.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s 12/1 this evening - but could easily be a bit bigger tomorrow - and maybe worth a small involvement.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Bramble Brook</i></span></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-47309838820577302832019-01-16T13:55:00.000-08:002019-01-16T13:55:25.166-08:00Thursday 17th January <div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">’ve no idea why, but there is a glut of decent races tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Up until yesterday, there had barely been a mid-week race of interest, since New Years Day - but, without exaggeration, I could easily have previewed 10 of tomorrows races.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Ofcourse, that’s not what I do on the mid-week blog - that level of effort is saved for the weekends !</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The mid-week is supposed to be a relaxing amble through the following day races - so I’ve restricted the preview to 4 races.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Ofcourse, I still had the issue of deciding which 4 ! </span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">However, there are 2 official eye catchers running (and I like the chances of them both) so that was a couple of races taken care of.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I could easily have selected the 2 others from an excellent Market Rasen card - but instead I opted to go to Wincanton…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Here are my relatively brief thoughts !</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ludlow</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:15 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Whoshotwho was an eye catcher on his most recent outing, at Haydock, behind Daklondike</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I tipped the winner that day - but turning for home, I would happily have jumped ship to Whoshotwho !</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He was travelling very powerfully - but he didn’t get home in the heavy ground.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He was also running over a trip further than he’d run over previously, so returned to 2m4f on decent ground, I would expect him to run a very big race.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The question is really whether there is anything sufficiently well handicapped to beat him…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The market likes Gortroe Joe - but I prefer Whoshotwho.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Truckers Highway is in good form - but he’s up in the weights, and in class.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">More Buck’s and Town Parks would both have a shout on their best of their form - but there are reasons for doubting they will produce that tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">If you can get 5/2 in the morning (and I think you should be able), then he would strike me as a fair bet…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Whoshotwho </span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Market Rasen</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:45</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Sands Cove was an eye catcher last time, when he ran at Hereford.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He was also a speculative tip that day - and I briefly thought he might provide a big priced win.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Unfortunately that didn’t happen - but he did run well - and I was left with the feeling that we were probably on him a run too soon…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I knew that was a risk when I tipped him - but at the odds, felt it was worth it.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I like the fact that he’s been given a month to recover from that run - and that he’s running at Market Rasen, a course where his trainer does well.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Trip and ground should be ideal for him - and he’s now embarrassingly well handicapped !</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The only negatives are that he’s 12 years old - and he has to shoulder 12st7lb.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">However, he can be backed at 7/1 this evening, so in a 7 runner race, those negatives are certainly factored into the price.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The race should take very little winning - and if Sands Cove can build on his last run (and handle the weight), I think he will win.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Sands Cove at 7/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Wincanton</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:55 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">This doesn’t appear to be a particularly deep race - and I like the look of Highest Sun.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He ran well in what was a slightly better race last time, at Cheltenham.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">That was also his handicap debut - and only his second run in the UK, so it’s reasonable to think he should be able to improve a fair bit.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">In truth, I don’t think he will need to, in order to win this.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Snapdragon Fire looks his main rival - but he was raised 5lb for finishing second last time, which looks harsh.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The other one worthy of consideration, is Peterborough.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He won last time out - but that was a a weaker race and he’s been raised 6lb.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Highest Sun has been backed a bit tonight - but 5/2 still seems a fair enough price.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Highest Sun at 5/2</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:35 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I’ve suggested a couple of shorter priced horses for tomorrow - but the odds available on Skellig Rock are more in line with most TVB selections !</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">A bit like Ulan Bhute today, the main attraction with him, is his trainer…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Rob Walford has been in great form for a few weeks now - and Skellig Rock is his only runner on the card.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Ex. Irish, the horse made his UK debut over course and distance, back in November and ran a nice race.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He was still travelling strongly jumping the cross fence but he got that wrong and was then under pressure.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Maybe unsurprisingly, he couldn’t make any inroads on the leaders up the home straight - but he ran on well enough and a 5lb drop in the handicap looks generous to me.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He can be backed at 11/1 tonight - and whilst there are a few potential dangers in the race, that strikes me as a fair bet.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Skellig Rock at 11/1</span></i></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-46506670021461325912019-01-15T13:45:00.002-08:002019-01-15T13:49:45.091-08:00Wednesday 16th January<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">For just about the first time this year, there is some half decent mid-week racing tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This time last year, fixtures were being washed (or frozen !) away - but now it’s the lack of rain, that</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> the issue.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In truth, even with perfect ground, the mid-week racing in January (and February) tends to be limited - and that</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">s certainly been the case so far this month !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, they race at Newbury tomorrow - and whilst it’s not a stellar card, there are a couple of interesting handicaps.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">s also a veterans chase at Plumpton, which is moderately interesting - so at least there is a bit of action to fend off the boredom (or to distract from the Brexit shenanigans !) </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Newbury</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:10 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As class 4 handicaps go - this is a pretty good one !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Certainly, a few of the runners have the potential to operate at a higher level - so I would expect the form to hold up.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The 3 horses that head the market are of obvious interest: and I would just side with Ar Mest over En Meme Temps and Maquisard, if forced to choose - mainly because of the 10lb claim of jockey Nial Houlihan (who is exceptionally good value for the allowance).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Beyond the head of the market, the one that interests me most, is Volpone Jelois.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Formerly trained by Paul Nicholls, he transferred in to the care of Chris Gordon, prior to his most recent outing.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He didn’t shape too badly on his stable debut - but I would still expect him to show marked improvement tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It also strikes me as very interesting that his new owner, David Maxwell, takes the ride - as he tends not to be active during the mid-week (presumably he also has a proper job that needs attending to !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In such a relatively strong race, he couldn</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’t </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">be a confident pick - but I do think he represents a bit of value at 12/1.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Volpone Jelois at 12/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:50 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Based on form, it’s impossible not to be drawn to Carlos du Fruitier in this…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He finished third on his most recent run, in a very strong novice handicap that took place on the King George under-card.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The form of that race has already been franked in no uncertain terms, by recent winners, Glen Rocco and Dell Oro.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They finished second and fourth in the race, with Carlos du Frutier sandwiched in between them.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> been raised 2lb for his efforts, but if he matches that form tomorrow, he will take a bit of beating,..</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mister Malarkky and Quarenta are the obvious dangers - but they are a similar price and it's impossible to make as compelling a case for either.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At a big price, I</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’ll also be keeping an eye on Chic Name - though he could well need the run after 3 months off the track.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Carlos du Fruitier at 3/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Plumpton</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:10 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is rain forecast for Plumpton over the next 12 hours, and if it materialises, then Ulan Bhute will take some beating in this…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s not badly handicapped - but the big positive with him is the form of his stable.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Venetia has hit one of her purple patches over the past few weeks - and it shows no sign of ending !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">When that happens, it’s generally folly to oppose her runners - particularly in lower grade handicaps.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ignoring that angle, then the race looks relatively open, and it’s possible to make a case - or at least half a case - for most of the runners.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, if Ulan Bhute is in the same form as most of his stable-mates appear to be, then that is likely to give him the edge required to win.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Enthusiasm would be slightly tempered if the rain doesn</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’t</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> materialise - but even then, I would nominate him as the most likely race winner.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Uhlan Bhute at 7/2 </i></span></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-13696738931363740172018-12-20T12:36:00.004-08:002018-12-20T14:15:11.854-08:00Friday December 21st<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow: at Ascot and Uttoxeter.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Uttoxeter meeting isn’t too bad - certainly better than many of the mid-week meetings - but it doesn’t have the quality of the Ascot card, so that is where I have focused my attention…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are only 6 races on the Ascot card: and with a bumper, a maiden hurdle , a novice hurdle and a novice chase, it doesn’t sound the most inspiring - but superficial descriptions can be mis-leading ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Every race is of interest - with the bumper looking just about the best one run so far this season.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, a fair amount of guesswork is required both for it - and the opening maiden hurdle - so I</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’ve concentrated on the other 4 races, where there is a bit more form to work with…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ascot</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:20 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There may only be 6 runners in this - but this looks a pretty open contest…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My 2 against the field are Brianstorm and Dustin des Mottes.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both are having their second runs for new trainers, having shown mild promise on their stable debuts.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Brianstorm debuted for Venetia in a handicap hurdle at Ascot, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was a bit too free that day and didn’t get home - but he could be a different proposition tomorrow, with the run under his belt.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We’re guessing on his ability to jump a fence, but assuming he can, I think he could be the one to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dustin des Mottes made his debut for Dr Newland at Newbury last month - and was blown away by Knocknanuss.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, he travelled well to a point - and the winner was probably very well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Again, I would expect him to perform much better tomorrow - and he is worth saving stakes on.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Brianstorm at 5/1 </i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:55</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Angels Breath is going to have to be a rare talent, if he’s able to win this race on his hurdling debut - and has to be opposed at around 5/2.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m sure he is very talented - and I have the utmost respect for his connections - but this is a particularly strong race…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Thomas Darby sets the standard, on his defeat of Elixir de Nutz and subsequent narrow defeat by Didtheyleaveuoutto.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That’s Supreme novice quality form - and asking Angels Breath to match it on his first attempt, is almost certainly too much…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">More than that, the likes of Danny Kirwan and Seddon, have already shown themselves decidedly useful over hurdles - and still have plenty of potential…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s almost certainly a watching race (unless you choose to lay Angels Breath !) - but if I did get involved with it, I’d probably take a small chance on Thistle do Nicely…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s actually got just about the best form in the race - though doesn’t have the potential of some of his rivals.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is also a question mark over the ground for him - if it is very soft.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">On the flip side, he’s 20/1 this evening - and must have a decent chance of at least being placed…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Certainly he holds appeal, at nearly twice the price to finish in the top 3, that Angels Breath is to win ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Thistle do Nicely at 20/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:30 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller, runs in this - but I doubt that we’ll be cheering him home in front…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran at Cheltenham last Friday - but a careless mistake saw him unship his jockey at the second fence.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Clearly, he’ll need to jump better tomorrow, if he’s to have any chance - but even if he does, I think he’ll have his work cut out to cope with Vindication…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s only run 4 times over obstacles - and just once over fences - but he looks a serious talent to me.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He beat Coolanley, Champ and Western Ryder in his 3 runs over hurdles - and all of those efforts suggest he is at least a 150 rated horse.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Furthermore, he looked just as good - if not better - on his chasing debut at Carlisle…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Tomorrows 2m4f test will suit him much better than it will, Lil Rockerfeller - and I struggle to see him beaten.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, Count Meribel is a solid rival: and Jerrysback has plenty of potential - but I’ll be surprised if they are able to beat Vindication.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As you’ve probably noticed by now, I’m not in the habit of selecting even money shots - but I think this particular one will win ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Selection: Vindication at Evens </span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:05 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is a strong looking race of its type - but I think Le Musee will be hard to beat…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran really well last time, when runner up to Champ, at Newbury.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The winner hacked up that day - but that was no refection on Le Musse, who beat 13 other rivals, very comfortably.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It was a strong field as well - with Speedo Boy third and Man of Plenty fourth.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The nice thing from Le Musee’s perspective, is that he only got a 4lb rise for his efforts - as with Champ out of the race, he would probably have gone up double that amount !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That means he is probably still well handicapped - though it’s likely he will need to be, if he is to win this…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Always Resolute looks the main danger, having bolted up on his debut for Ian Williams.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He runs from a mark 9lb higher tomorrow - but it’s guesswork as to whether that will stop him.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Selection: Le Musee at 5/1</span></i></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-76173012948906435312018-12-18T13:37:00.001-08:002018-12-18T14:36:15.227-08:00Wednesday December 19th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">It</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">’s been a few weeks since there has been any decent mid week racing - but there is some tomorrow…</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;">They race at Newbury and Ludlow - and in years gone by, the former track would almost certainly have provided the main fixture - but not nowadays…</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ludlow has been punching above its weight for a few seasons now - and it’s the same again tomorrow, where its card is superior to the Newbury one.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, there are some interesting novice races at Newbury - as you would expect for a track located close to the main NH training centres - but if its competitive races you are after (and generally, I am !) - then the focus has to be on Ludlow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The potential big issue for the day, is rain…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They’ve had quite a bit at both tracks - and I’m sure they’ll get more. Consequently, it’s difficult to know how the ground will ride.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m guessing it’ll be on the the soft side - but it is guesswork.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If you do get involved, then you should try and establish the state of the ground - and ensure it is suitable for whatever you are supporting… (I’ll try to provide updates in the forum for main service subscribers).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ludlow </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:25</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This Class 2 event is the most valuable of the day - and has drawn a decent field.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Capeland is favourite, on the back of his good run last week, at Taunton.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s 5lb ‘well in’ for tomorrows contest - and provided he’s not feeling the effects of his recent run, he is the one to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, I can resist 11/4 in a tight looking 11 runner handicap…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Robinshill is quite interesting: as he has good course form; isn’t badly handicapped - and should handle the ground (whatever it is !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, at tonigths prices, the best bet in the race, is Un Prophet…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s not the most consistent (few of Venetias are !) - but he has form which suggests he could go close: has won over course and distance - and is potentially well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The form of Venetias stable is also a positive.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3 falls in his last 6 runs, is a worry - but the Ludlow fences are amongst the easiest in the country.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">His defeat of Keeping Moving at Exeter, last season, stands up to close scrutiny - as does his second to Champagne at Midnight.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s certainly not guaranteed to run his race - but if he does, then he could just about win - and as a consequence, is worth a risk at 12/1.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Un Prophet at 12/1 </i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:35 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The state of the ground is likely to have a big bearing on this race…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If it’s good, then Spiders Bite should be the one to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was taken out of an engagement at Carlisle on Sunday, on account of soft ground - so it will be interesting to see whether he’s allowed to participate tomorrow, if there has been a lot of rain.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I personally think he will be fine on soft - and connections may possibly let him take his chance, as it’s their local course.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In that scenario, I wouldn’t surprise me to see his price drift massively - which would be tempting !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, for the purposes of this preview, I will assume he will be taken out on account of soft ground (quite an assumption, I know - but such is life, if you preview the night before !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In his absence, Fox Appeal is the one that interests me most.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He won this race a couple of seasons back - and from a pound higher mark. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In truth he’s probably in slight decline now - though he shaped well enough on his seasonal debut at Taunton and holds Beau de Brizais on that run.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, this is quite a trappy looking race (even ignoring the state of the ground): as I could make half cases for a few:</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Tenor Nivernais could be very interesting - particularly on soft ground; whilst I think that Silverhow still has potential - though I’m not sure he will be fulfilling it tomorrow !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Opening Batsman and Holly Bush Henry are two more who could possibly run well.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In summary then, not a race to be going mad with - with Fox Appeal the token selection.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Fox Appeal at 15/2 (Spiders Bite, if he runs !)</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:05 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d be quite a bit sweeter on Honest Vic in this - and he strikes me as the bet of the day…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Certainly, his fifth place in a much better race than this at Cheltenham in April, gives him a very good chance: as does his sixth place at Market Rasen, the following month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The form of his season debut run at Chepstow, doesn’t read quite as well - but it was a relatively strong race and he was quite well fancied,</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It was also over the bare 2 mile trip - and I’m pretty sure he will benefit from stepping back up to 2m5f tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Henry Daly loves to get a winner at Ludlow - and Alice Stevens is a very interesting jockey booking.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In short, Honest Vic has ticks in plenty of boxes - and tonights 7/1 is a good price.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I would ordinarily, just go with him - however, Burrows Park for Venetia, looks potentially dangerous, on his second run back after a long absence.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In the circumstances, I would suggest saving stakes on him…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Honest Vic at 7/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Newbury</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:40 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is the most interesting race on the card - but not an easy one to call…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Most of the runners can be given a chance - and if I were to get involved, I’d be inclined to take a chance on a couple of the outsiders…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Vodka all the Way has his second run over fences, having unseated on his chase debut at Chepstow, 11 days ago.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was weak in the betting that day - but has Dickie on board tomorrow, which I suspect will result in more interest ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s not an easy one to assess, based on form - but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t ultimately prove better than his current rating of 125.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">His price tonight is 14/1 - and he would be worth a small risk at those odds.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Vieux Lille is a similar price - and again, that holds some appeal.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He will be having his first outing for Jamie Snowden - having transferred from the stable of Philip Hobbs.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He finished second to Yala Enki in the 2016 Tommy Whittle chase at Haydock - and runs tomorrow from a mark 10lb lower.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That means he is potentially well handicapped - if his new connections have him primed.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I suspect the market will advise on expectations with him…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Selection: Vodka all the Way at 14/1 & Vieux Lille at 14/1</span></i></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-88174805319201387182018-12-12T12:58:00.001-08:002018-12-12T13:00:33.791-08:00Thursday December 13th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’ll only be covering the racing for 1 day, on the blog, this week…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s been pretty uninspiring week, so far (plus I've had a few things on) - and with the weekend effectively starting at Cheltenham on Friday, it only leaves tomorrow for me to preview…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 4 meetings taking place: at Warwick, Taunton and Newcastle in the UK - plus Tamore in Ireland.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The best racing takes place at Taunton, where the likely decent ground, has resulted in some very competitive fields.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In truth, I can’t see any stand out bets - but there are certainly a few horses of interest running - and maybe one of those can find a way of coming home in front..! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Taunton</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:10 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Christmas in April is probably the most interesting runner in the race, on his chasing debut - but he makes scant appeal at the 7/2 on offer this evening, in a race where few can be safely dismissed…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It maybe a mistake (!) - but I’ll probably give Hugos Horse another chance.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I supported him last time at Ludlow, when he made his chasing debut.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was incredibly weak in the betting that day - and ultimately finished well beaten.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, he travelled powerfully through the race and traded close to even money, in running.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s clearly got plenty of talent: and Paul Nicholl applies cheek pieces for the first time tomorrow. He has also booked a 7lb claimer - and the horse has been dropped a pound.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He definitely has the ability to win a race of this nature - I just don’t know whether it will be tomorrow !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’ll back him pre-race (he’s 12/1 this evening) - and lay him off in running.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If he wins - great: if he doesn’t get home - I’ll hopefully not lose on him !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Most of the other runners can be given a chance of some sort, so it really isn’t a race over which you could feel confident.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Hugos Horse</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:45 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is another open looking race - though Majestic Touch looks the form pick, based on his latest run.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That was at Newbury, is a better race than tomorrows, when he finished second to French Crusader.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Our Merlin was a couple of lengths back in third, that day - and he went on to frank the form, with a good win, last week.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Majestic Touch is stepped up in trip tomorrow- and I think that will suit: he has also been dropped a pound in the handicap (and that always helps !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The issue, is a price of 5/1 in a competitive 13 runner handicap. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s maybe about right - but there isn’t much of a margin.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Don’t Ask is the other one of some interest - but he’s already been backed this evening and again, the current 8/1 looks about right.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Majestic Touch</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:15 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The third competitive handicap in a row - at least this one offers a moderately attractive bet (at tonight's prices).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I thought Western Miller ran a nice race on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, 3 weeks ago.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He tried to make all that day - and jumped well - but was swallowed up after jumping the third last and ultimately finished well beaten.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I would expect him to improve for the run - and he’s been dropped 3lb. Paul O’Brien also replaces Johnny Burke in the saddle - meaning he’s effectively 6lb lower.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are plenty of potential dangers - but I will be surprised if Western Miller doesn’t run well - and a price of 12/1, even lends itself to an EW play.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Otter Moons is probably the most interesting of his rivals - but again, it’s a race where few can be ruled out with confidence.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Western Miller at 12/1 </i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Warwick</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:05</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I was really impressed by Hard Station, when he won at Market Rasen 3 weeks ago, as he beat a couple of bang in form horses.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was also backed to do so, suggesting connections knew they had a well handicapped horse.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s 8lb higher tomorrow - and running over a shorter trip.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, Dickie takes over in the saddle and I suspect he is the one to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hoke Colburn is second favourite - but I’m more interested in Keep Moving…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s a horse who I’ve watched closely on every run, since he made his UK debut at Newbury over 2 years ago.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s got loads of ability - and is definitely much better than his current mark - but things just won’t seem to click for him.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If they do tomorrow, he will win - it’s just a question of whether they do !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s a 5/1 shot this evening, which is about right.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Maybe back him and save stakes on Hard Station…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Keep Moving at 5/1</i></span></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-86163031534425002282018-12-06T13:53:00.002-08:002018-12-06T13:53:49.486-08:00Friday December 7th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s some really good racing at Exeter and Sandown tomorrow - in fact, I would be quite happy if the racing this weekend is of a similar standard ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Exeter, is particular, puts on a couple of outstanding contests, which would grace most Saturday cards…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There’s also a meeting at Sedgefield - though it doesn’t inspire to quite the same extent !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Time is a bit tight for me this evening - so the previews are briefer than I would like.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Still, as they say, it’s quality that counts - not quantity :)</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Exeter</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:05 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is the first of the exceptional races, run on the card.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s an incredibly strong handicap (far stronger than most class 3 races) - and I’m sure it will pay to watch it closely…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Awake at Midnight and Siruh du Lac were both impressive winners of good races last time - and neither has been harshly penalised for their win.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The issue for both, will be 2m4f on potentially heavy ground, as neither is proven in the conditions.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It doesn’t mean they won’t be able to cope with it - just that it’s impossible to be confident they will.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As a consequence, you couldn’t take too short a price on either…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rather than side with them at </span>relatively<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> short prices, I’d be inclined to split stakes across Eamon An Cnoc and Zamdy Man.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They are 2 of the more exposed runners in the field - but both will relish heavy ground and will be well suited by the trip.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eamon an Cnoc ran really well last time in the Betvictor Gold cup; and whilst Zamdy Man has more to prove on his seasonal debut, I’m sure Venetia can be counted on have him ready to do himself justice on his seasonal debut...</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Eamon an Cnoc at 9/1 & Zamdy Man at 12/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:35 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is the second quality race on the card - though in truth, it is probably one to watch rather than bet in.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It sees Black Op make his chasing debut - and if he’s as good over fences as he was over hurdles, he will be exceptionally hard to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He would be expected him to win almost any novice chase he contested - so it says much for the quality of this contest, that he’s no certainty…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Topofthegame is the first of his main rivals.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He represents Paul Nichols - and could turn out to be his best novice chaser.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He had a try at chasing last season - but fell on his only outing.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It was therefore put on hold until this season. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He did however manage to put up a series of excellent efforts in top class handicap hurdle races - so there is no doubting his ability.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">White Moon is the other one of major interest.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran really well until falling at the last on his recent chasing debut at Cheltenham.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That was a very strong race - and despite running for the first time in a year, White Moon would have gone close to winning, without the mishap.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Assuming the incident hasn’t had a lasting effect, he sets a high standard.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Defi de Seuil and Westend Story are good enough to win average novice chases - but they will be relative outsiders in this.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I wouldn’t really want to call the winner - though White Moon is possibly a bit of value at 7/2.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s really a race to be savoured, tho…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:10</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is the third race of interest on the Exeter card - but the interest is mainly because it contains an official eye catcher…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Two Amigos caught the eye last time, when running really well against the Some Chaos.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That one looked a very well handicapped horse (confirmed by his good run at Wincanton today) - so The Two Amigos lost little in defeat to him.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was raised 3lb for finishing second that day - but he finished 9 lengths ahead of the third. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If Some Chaos hadn’t run in the race, then The Two Amigos would likely have got himself a 10lb rise in the handicap.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I therefore think he is probably still well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Tomorrow's trip of 3m6f is a step into the unknown for him - </span>particularly<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> on heavy ground.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As a consequence, I again would be wary about taking too short a price.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, the opposition doesn’t look overly strong.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Garrane has a similar profile - and similar questions to answer; and whilst Firebird Flyer is potentially very well handicapped and will be well suited by the test - he is also nearly 12…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Two Amigos looks worth a risk to me, at a price of 3/1 or bigger (I would suggest he should be about 5/2).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: The Two Amigos at 7/2 </span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sandown</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:55 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is the most interesting race on the Sandown card - but it’s frighteningly competitive !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If asked to select the most likely winner, I’d side with Glen Rocco - but 5/1 is too short in a 16 runner novice handicap chase.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lithic probably sets the form standard, on the back of his second to Springtown Lake over course and distance, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8/1 is probably about the right price for him tho…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In terms of a ‘value bet’, I’d side with Secret Legacy.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was a fair novice hurdler last season - and should have benefited from his debut run over hurdles at Bangor, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He didn’t really feature that day, but should be better for the outing.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He can be backed at 20/1 this evening - and that could be worth a small risk, in what looks a relatively open contest.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Selection: Secret Legacy at 20/1</span></span></i><i><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-37844932877320649832018-12-05T11:46:00.000-08:002018-12-05T11:46:10.156-08:00Thursday December 6th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow: at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Leicester in the UK - plus Clonmel in Ireland.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A host of racing - but it</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s definitely a case of quantity over quality…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Leicester card is again all hurdle races - and only marginally better than the card they staged on Sunday !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Things are a little better at Market Rasen - but it’s low grade stuff and relativity uncompetitive, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see favourites dominate proceedings…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The fields are bigger at Clonmel - but it’s a typical Irish mid week meeting - better watched, than punted on !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Which leaves Wincanton…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, their card is pretty good - for a mid week - though there is a big question mark concerning the state of the ground, so I would advise treading cautiously, until there is some clarity in that area (it’s currently reported to be good - but a lot of rain has been forecast).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 2 class 3 handicaps on the card - which are by some margin, the best 2 races of the day.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Here are my thoughts on them both…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Wincanton</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:30 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Three interesting horses head the market for this - and whilst I’d be a little surprised if they finished first, second and third - I’d also be a little surprised if one of them didn’t win…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Cobolobo is the market leader, on the back of his short head defeat by Kilbricken Storm.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The winner is rated 152 - Cobolobo races off a mark of 123 tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If the form doesn’t flatter him, he will absolutely dot up ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, it almost certainly does - but that doesn’t mean he still won’t win.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s very much the one to beat…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Second favourite, Some Chaos, has already won races 2 races in impressive fashion, this season.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">On his seasonal debut, he hammered Cuddles McGraw - and that one won comfortably next time and is now rated 14lb higher.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Some Chaos has gone up 20lb - but he’s probably worth that rise.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Heavy ground would be an unknown: and Cobolobo a worrying opponent - but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see him win.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Reikers Island is third favourite - and it says much for the strength of the race that there are 2 ahead of him in the betting…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran well to finish third in a strong novice handicap at Uttoxeter, on his seasonal debut - and running off the same mark, that form would be strong enough to make him favourite for most races of this nature.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Of the 3 market leaders, he looks the one most likely to run his race - he just hasn’t quite got the upside of the other 2.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Maybe EW, at 5/1, is the best way to play things (as he should place - and could win).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s hard to seriously look beyond the 3 mentioned for the race winner - though if there is to be a surprise, Royal Paladium looks the one most likely to cause it.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He fell at the first on his seasonal debut: but has a very good record fresh and has run well at Wincanton in the past.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Venetia's horses are also finding their form - no doubt helped by the softening of the ground (which would also suit him).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:05</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is an official TVB eye catcher running in this, in the shape of Our Merlin - and I would expect him to run very well…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fact, I would nominate him as the most likely race winner - provided the forecast rain does materialise.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is little doubt he wants soft: he finished second to Call me Lord and third to Remiluc last season, in much better races than tomorrows - and both of those were on heavy ground.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Since then, he's run 3 times on quicker ground - and has not performed as well. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However that has seen his handicap mark drop - and I thought he showed definite signs of a return to form, in his most recent run at Newbury.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That should have put him spot on for tomorrow - in which case, he could prove hard to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He may also get an uncontested lead - which on a sharp track like Wincanton, will be a big bonus…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Of his rivals, then Darling Maltaix and Jaboticaba both look potentially dangerous - but both have been well found in the market.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Selection: Our Merlin at 12/1</span></span></i></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-40828966388804609342018-12-03T13:14:00.001-08:002018-12-03T13:14:44.450-08:00Tuesday December 4th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">As you will doubtless have noticed (!), it</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">’s been a few days since I last posted on the mid-week blog…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The thing is, when I do post, I like to cover 4 races - and there hasn’t been a mid-week day since last Monday, when there were even close to 4 races of interest ! </span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I’m not sure why I think 4 is the ‘right’ number..</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I guess it feels sufficient to engage - without being so much, as to bore ! </span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Anyway, I can see that if I try to stick the ‘4 race' rule, I might not be posting again this week, so I’ve lowered the bar, a little..!</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">There are a couple of decent races at Southwell tomorrow (grade 3 events) - and whilst the Fakenham card isn’t as good, there is one reasonable race.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I’ll therefore preview just the 3 races for tomorrow (could this be the future for the mid week blog, I wonder..?!)</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Southwell</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:00 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I quite like the shape of this race, with 8 runners, non of whom can be completely dismissed.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, I think it can be broken down into 4 ‘pairs’, in terms of the </span>likelihood<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> of winning:</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Most likely, are Another Crick and Destrier.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The former sets the form standard - but the latter could possibly improve past him to win, on his chasing debut.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The next pair are Doc Carver and Super Sid.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Doc Carver is held on form by Another Crick - but there wasn’t a lot between them when they met at Chepstow: and Another Crick may have benefited from being held up off a fast pace.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Super Sid is another chasing </span>debutante<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> - and whilst his form over hurdles isn’t as strong as that of Destrier, he has plenty of potential.</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The third pair are Castafiore and Walsingham Grange.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Castafiore shouldn’t beat Destrier - as he finished behind him last time, over hurdles and had the benefit of a run; whilst Walsingham Grange has quite a lot to prove on his second run over fences.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">The final 2 are Swift Crusader and Eureu de Boulay.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I won’t say they can’t win - but I will say that victory for either, looks relatively unlikely…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">With the market dominated by the first pair, I suspect the ones to concentrate on, are Doc Carver and Super Sid.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Both have a chance - and have probably been under-estimated in the early betting.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Doc Carver can be backed at 7/1 this evening: and Super Sid at 12/1.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">My inclination, would be to try and get those prices - and then see tomorrow if Another Crick and Destrier drift to around 4/1.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d even consider </span>backing<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> Walsingham Grange and Castafiore - but I’d want double figures about both of them...</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:00 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">I don’t think there is a stand out contender in this race, either - but at the prices this evening, Present Times makes most appeal…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I actually tipped him last season, when he disappointed badly at Exeter, on his penultimate outing (though he was subsequently found to have </span>injured<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> himself).</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">What was interesting, was that he was backed in to 3/1 that day - in a class 2 race.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">His other runs last season, stand up to quite close scrutiny - and I suspect he’s well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He won on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, so hopefully fitness won’t be an issue tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">If that’s the case, then he’s a fair bet at this evening’s price of 7/1…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Non of his rivals have a water tight case: Crosspark has been running over fences: Wemyss Point is rising up the handicap; Saint Ladylime is making her seasonal debut (possibly before returning to fences).</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">They all can be given a chance - but not really a compelling one.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tomngerry turn out to be the biggest danger to Present Times - assuming the last named runs as well as I hope !</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Present Times at 7/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Fakenham</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:10 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Balibour is the one that interests me most in this…</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He’s only run twice over fences and performed creditably on his chasing debut at Kempton, in October.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He finished third that day and on the back of that run, was sent off at just 6/1 for a relatively strong novice handicap at Chepstow, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">However, he never game himself a chance in that race, pulling far too hard throughout.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">It’s difficult to know why that would happen, with benefit of a run under his belt and not wearing head gear.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">If he does the same tomorrow, he’s unlikely to win (though Fakenham is much better suited to front runners, than Chepstow !).</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s interesting to see Leighton Aspell </span>replacing<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> a 5lb claimer in the saddle - and hopefully he will be able to settle the horse.</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He’ll almost certainly need to, with an extra half mile to travel.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">Wood Pigeon looks the most interesting of the other runners.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He’s one of a pair in the race, trained by Olly Murphy - and Aiden Coleman in the saddle suggests he’s probably (though not definitely !) the stables number 1.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;">He’s making his seasonal debut - but I doubt that will be an issue: and has won at the course previously - which is a definite positive, as Fakenham is a pretty unique track !!</span><span style="font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Balibour at 7/1</span></i></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-76853430483821593112018-11-25T12:55:00.004-08:002018-11-25T12:58:50.232-08:00Monday November 26th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is some decent racing tomorrow - for a Monday - and in truth, it should probably be even better than it is…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Kempton host the feature meeting - with the high-light, a listed mares hurdle.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, it</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s only attracted 4 runners.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Still, that’s 1 more than in the first 2 races on the card !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Fortunately, the fields have stood up a bit better in the 3 handicaps that close the card…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The days other 2 meetings are at Ludlow and Musselbrough.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Relatively small fields are also the order of the day at Ludlow: and whilst field sizes are better at Mussselburgh, the racing is of a lower standard…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Kempton</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:35</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is the best race of the day - and it contains the days best bet !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Deauville Dancer was due to run at Exeter today, but was pulled out on account of the softening ground.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Assuming it stays quick tomorrow at Kempton, then he looks the one to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is no disputing the fact he is well handicapped, on a mark 12lb lower than when contesting a similar race over the course, in February.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran a good race that day, on ground too soft, over a trip too short - and returning from a break.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He also ran well at Sandown in April, when fourth in a better class contest.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That was from a mark 10lb higher than he races from tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He made his seasonal debut at Stratford at the beginning of this month - and again ran with promise.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That run should have put him spot on for tomorrow - and he looks a fair bet at the 8/1 available this evening.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Deauville Dancer at 8/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:10 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A price of 4/1 is a bit tight - but I like the look of Its got Legs, in this…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran well last time, when second in a hot (for the grade) novice handicap hurdle at Ascot.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He had no chance with the well handicapped winner, that day - but still finished ahead of 12 fairly reasonable rivals.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He gets to run from the same mark tomorrow - which is a bonus: and steps up in trip - which I’m sure will help.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The only concern I have is with the fitting of a first time visor. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I have no issue with that itself - but I don’t like it when combined with an increase in distance (as it’s likely to make the horse race more freely).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The answer is probably to put in a low in running lay, in case he doesn’t last home…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I suspect he will be available at 5/1, at some point tomorrow - and I’d be prepared to take a risk on him at that price (laying to get my stake back, at around even money).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Its Got Legs</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ludlow</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:05 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Again, I wouldn’t want to get sucked into taking too short a price (and 5/2 this evening is probably too short !) - but I’ll find it hard to resist Hugos Horse in this…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s making his chasing debut under rules, having run just twice over hurdles.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, there is every reason to think he’ll improve for the bigger obstacles, as he’s a PTP winner in Ireland.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Paul Nicholls doesn’t train many horses who are only rated 100 - and Andy Stweart doesn’t own many.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d be confident connections expect him to ultimately rate a fair bit higher…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The other slight concern, is that that this could be quite a strong race (relatively speaking).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Balkinstown and The Ogle Gogle Man have both got chances: whilst I would be particularly fearful of Baron du Plesis.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was backed into favouritism last time, on his seasonal debut, in a stronger race than this.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was also going well enough, when making a race ending mistake at the third last.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s clearly considered well handicapped by connections - so it’s unlikely to be easy for Hugos Horse to make a winning chasing debut…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Hugos Horse - danger Baron de Plesis</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:40 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is another tough race to call - considering there are only 6 runners !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I think the 2 to focus on, are Robinshill and Vivaccio.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The former is 3 from 3 at Ludlow - and is potentially well handicapped.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, he ran deplorably on his seasonal debut - when drifting like a barge…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That makes me wary: but with 3lb off his mark - and 5lb claimer Zac Baker on his back - returning to his favourite venue, I wouldn’t expect to see that situation repeated !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Assuming he is back to form, then from a mark 2lb lower than the one he was successful from, in the corresponding race 12 months ago, he will take a lot of beating.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Vivaccio is a potential danger, on old form.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If he can return to his best, then he is even better handicapped than Robinshill.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, he was badly out of form last season - so supporting him would require a bit of an act of faith…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Robinshill at 9/2</i></span></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-45882302128123404852018-11-22T13:03:00.001-08:002018-11-22T13:03:21.624-08:00Friday November 23rd<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Ascot, Ffos Las and Catterick.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The meetings at Ffos Las and Catterick aren</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">t bad - certainly when compared to those on offer at the start of the week ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">That said, neither can compare to the action on offer at Ascot.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The 6 race card is varied and of good quality.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fact, it’s a shame that one or two of the races aren</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’t</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> being run on Saturday, as I might have fancied tipping in them ! (provided of course, that I could get the prices !) </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Instead, I</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">ll just have to content myself with previewing a few of the races - using the info and prices available this evening - and you</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’ll then have to decide yourselves, whether anything becomes worth a bet tomorrow !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ascot</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:00 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s difficult to oppose Wenyerreadyfreddie after his demolition job in a novice handicap at this course, 3 weeks ago.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He really couldn’t have been more impressive that day - and if he runs to the same level of form tomorrow, he will take a bit of beating.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, he is taking on potentially better class rivals - and has to give them weight.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">So whilst he has an experience and fitness advantage, it might not be a formality for him…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Kildisart strikes me as the one most likely to upset the favourite.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">His rating of 143 over hurdles is only 2lb shy of Wenyerreadyfreddies rating of 145 over fences - yet Freddie has to give him 5lb.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is a question mark over Kildisart’s fitness, so that would temper enthusiasm - but if he is ready to go, then I suspect he will be quite capable of giving the favourite a race.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Kildisart at 5/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:40 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is a chance that Royal Regatta might take this race apart…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rated as high as 158, 2 years ago - he gets to run from a mark of just 145 tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The reduction in rating, is because he was disappointing on his 2 runs last season - but that was a case for a lot of the the runners from Philip Hobbs’s stable.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s a horse who has run all of his best races at Ascot - and who likes to attack from the front.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If he’s fit enough to do himself justice - and is in the lead over the first fence - I suspect he won’t see a rival !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">All this said, he does come with risks…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s not run for a year - and doesn’t have a amazing record fresh.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He also wasn’t that keen to set off, the last time he did run !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If you support him, it’s a bit of an act of faith in Philip Hobbs training ability.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The horse is more than capable of winning - but he’s no certainty !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If he does disappoint, then Cobra de Mai may be the one to take advantage.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s likely to be overlooked in the betting, as he appears the stable second string, on jockey bookings.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, William Marshalls 10lb claim more than offsets the rise he got for his last win - and the form of most of his runs prior to that win, would put him right in the mix, under what should be ideal conditions.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Royal Regatta at 4/1 - value alternative Cobra de Mai </i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:15</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are fitness or well-being doubts over just about all of the runners in this, which makes it a tricky race to get involved with…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Minella Daddy is handicapped to win - if he returns to action in top form. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The betting is likely to advise on that score.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Battle of Shiloh is also making his seasonal debut - but I’d feel more confident that he will be ready to do himself justice.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He has a good record fresh - and strikes me as a relatively fragile horse, with whom, connections won’t want to waste runs.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s not badly handicapped either - and ground/trip should be fine.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Whether there is any value in his current price of 9/2, is debatable - but it might drift a little tomorrow !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Battle of Shiloh</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:50</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Off a pound lower mark than when winning the 2017 Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival , I think Flying Tiger is the one to beat in this.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I expected that victory to be a spring board for greater things - but it’s not happened.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran some fair races over hurdles last season - but was ultimately disappointing: and he’s not really taken to fences this season…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In a way, this is his last chance saloon - but I’m pretty sure that he retains all of his old ability - and I’m hopeful that Dickie will be able to get him to delver.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, he faces potentially strong opposition, so he’ll need to be close to top form.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Chatez is thrown in on his flat form: Whilst Distingo ran very well on his seasonal debut.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jolly’s Cracked it is very well handicapped - if he retains his old ability, after 2 years off the track; whilst I expect Scheu Time to run a big race under Jonjo O’Neil Jnr.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As a consequence, you would need a price on Flying Tiger - and 4/1 is tight.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Perhaps he’s another who will drift tomorrow !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Flying Tiger at 4/1</span></i></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-59272375039630211722018-11-21T13:38:00.000-08:002018-11-21T13:38:00.115-08:00Thursday November 22nd<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The lack of rain - and consequential quick ground - is really messing up fixtures at the moment - particularly during the mid week. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At Warwick today, the 2 feature chases managed a total of just 6 runners between them.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s not a good situation…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Things aren’t great at 2 of tomorrows meetings, either.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both Wincanton and Thurles have the word ‘firm’ in their going description - and as a result, there are a number of small field, uncompetitive races.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Thankfully, a bit of the wet stuff seems to have fallen at Market Rasen - and their ‘good to soft’ ground has been rewarded by competitive races…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Market Rasen</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>12:55 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Martila caught my eye on her most recent outing, staying on into fourth place behind Le Patriote, at Ayr.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">She had won the corresponding contest, 12 months earlier - and was well backed to repeat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, she hadn’t run for nearly 4 months and I suspect that caught her out.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">With the run under her belt, I would expect her to go close this afternoon - and Pauline Robson sends her a long way for the race.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A price of 4/1 is tight against 2 or 3 interesting rivals - but probably about right..</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Martila at 4/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:25 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Pertemps qualifier is the high-light of the card - and I quite fancy Aaron Lad.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was progressive last season, before disappointing on his final run at Haydock.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, he shaped nicely on his return this season, when sixth in a competitive race at Cheltenham.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I would expect that run to have brought him on - in which case, he should go close tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Interestingly, he is trained by Dr Newland, who has a decent strike rate at the Lincolnshire venue - and he is the only runner the good Doctor has at the meeting…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The general 7/1 this evening, strikes me as fair.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Aaron Lad at 7/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:00 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is a intriguing novice handicap chase - in which the runners have a real range of experience over fences…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At one end of the spectrum, First Drift is making his chasing debut under rules (though he has won a PTP): whilst at the other, Arctic Gold has already run 10 times over fences (without success !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I like Drovers Hill best - but he is favourite and there is minimal margin in a price of 3/1.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lisdoonvarna Lad is more interesting, at a price, for Charlie Longsdon.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He made his chasing debut at Warwick last month, in the race won by Kalashnikov.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Unsurprisingly, he never featured that day - but with that experience under his belt - and over an extra half mile, I would expect him to do much better tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Lisdoonvarna Lad at 9/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:05</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As a class 5 event, this is certainly not a race to be going mad with (as it could easily be the subject of a plot !) - however, with a straight bat, I quite like the look of Filemon…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s shown ability over fences - but has struggled with his jumping.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s therefore interesting that connections put him back over hurdles tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds for his last run, which will help: and he also has the services of one the best jockeys in the race, in the shape of Page Fuller.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m a little unsure about the drop in trip, to 2 miles - but he’ll probably get a way with it.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are very few in the race who you can fancy, based on what they’ve shown on the track - so at 4/1 he strikes me as a fair bet.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Selection: Filemon at 4/1</i></span></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-84204692289585567872018-11-13T13:52:00.000-08:002018-11-13T13:55:53.170-08:00Wednesday November 14th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 4 NH meetings taking place tomorrow, and whilst there</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s not much of note at either Ayr or Fairyhouse (assuming you ignore Sean Bowens 5 rides for Gordon Elliot, at the former venue !), then Exeter and Bangor both put on some decent races - and there is a potential start turn running at each venue…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Marias Benefit has her second run over fences at Bangor; whilst Black Op begins his chasing career at Exeter.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both horses have the potential to be top class and could easily end up major players in championship races at the big spring festivals.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Needless to say, I would expect them to win tomorrow (even though victory for neither, is a formality).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The best race of the day, is the Anne Duchess of Westminster memorial chase at Bangor (1:50). </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s attracted a really good class field - and if it was being run on a Saturday or Sunday, would definitely be classed as a TVB ‘Big’ race ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Run on a Wednesday, however, the early market is unlikely to be particularly strong. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That coupled with the fact that it’s a very open looking race, dissuaded me from getting involved with it - ‘officially’ speaking, anyway ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bangor</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>1:50 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This race certainly wouldn’t look out of place on a Saturday card - and a case of sorts, can be made for all 12 runners…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sir Mangan won the race 12 months ago - and looks to have been primed for a repeat bid.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He also somehow finds himself running from a mark 7lb lower - so really should have a very good chance.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The only issue is, this looks to be a much more competitive renewal than last years - and whilst I’m sure he will run well, he just might find one or two of his progressive rivals, a bit too good.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are 5 second season novice chasers in the race - and my feeling is that one of them will win.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The market favours Barney Dwan - and whilst I respect his claims, he usually finds a way to lose and is also plenty short enough in the betting.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Of more interest, are Rolling Dylan and Back to the Thatch.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The former could easily show improvement this campaign, with his stable in such good form; whilst the latter is likely to have been targeted at the race, by his shrewd trainer.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Full Irish and Sparkling River are the 2 others second season novices - and both have also got a chance. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The latter certainly looks over-priced, at 33/1…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It really isn’t an easy race to solve, as non of the 6 remaining runners can be completely dismissed.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At tonight's prices, I’d be inclined to side with Back to the Thatch - and maybe have a small EW play on Sir Mangan, to cover stakes…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Back to the Thatch at 10/1 - danger Sir Mangan EW at 10/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:55</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is another very tricky race - and again, a case can be made for most of the runners…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Whatmore and Present Ranger head the market - and whilst that is fair enough, I’m not sure I’d want to be backing anything in the race at 4/1 or under…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If I was to get involved, I’d maybe take a chance on Wilde Blue Yonder.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s definitely got the ability to win off his current mark - but he’s had injuries and is also making his seasonal debut.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The market will probably advise on stable expectations - but if he is fit and fancied, then tonights 8/1 would be decent value.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The other one of interest, is Ballyhill.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He reverts to hurdles tomorrow, having lost his way over fences.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s potentially well handicapped, running off a mark 1lb lower than when he won over fences, at Cheltenham on New Years day.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Again, the market is likely to advise on whether this is a confidence building exercise - or if he will be really going for it.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: Wilde Blue Yonder at 8/1</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Exeter</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:35 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m not surprised to see Just a Sting installed the short priced favourite for this, after his recent win at Uttoxeter.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He may well be capable of following up - but he’s 6lb higher and it’s a deep race.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Certainly at a best price of 5/2, I’m happy to look elsewhere…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Gunfleet is the obvious alternative - but we are guessing on his fitness, and again , the price isn’t great.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d rather take a chance on Vodka all the Way and Merry Milan.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Somewhat oddly, they have the same owner - but different trainers.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The former is trained by Philip Hobbs and has Dickie in the saddle. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I suspect he will do better on his chasing debut than he did on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Newton Abbott, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Merry Milan is making both his seasonal debut and his chasing debut - after just 3 runs over hurdles. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He’s a former PTP winner however, and it’s interesting that connections are keen to get him over fences asap.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He clearly comes with risks - but most 16/1 chances do !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: </span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Merry Milan at 16/1</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:40</b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Trans Express was an official eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He ran perfectly well there, in a better race - and I’m pretty sure the objective that day, was simply to get him spot on for today.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He should certainly strip fitter for the run - and the handicapper also generously dropped him 2lb.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Cheek pieces are reapplied tomorrow - so he must have a very good chance, at a course where he has historically performed well (3 wins and 2 seconds, from 7 runs).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m not surprised that he has been well backed - as the early 10/1 was too big.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Even the current 13/2 doesn’t look too bad - as I’ll be a little surprised if he’s out of the frame…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Whether he is good enough to win however, is a different matter.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sue Gardners few runners haven’t performed particularly well - and he also faces at least a couple of decent rivals, in the form of Nayati and Casterly Rock.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My inclination is to have a small bet on him - possibly EW - but no more than that…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Trans Express at 13/2</i></span></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-88268287658708128872018-11-12T13:53:00.002-08:002018-11-12T13:53:06.929-08:00Tuesday November 13th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I had no expectations for tomorrows racing, so It was a very pleasant surprise to look at the overnight declarations and see not 1; not even 2 - but 3 very decent meetings..!</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ofcourse, they are decent by mid week standards - but even so, each meeting has at least an interesting race or two on the card - and whilst I would recommend treading very carefully, there may possibly be one or two bets lurking…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Somewhat surprisingly, the best card is at Hereford - and they also host the best race of the day, in the handicap chase at 3:30.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hereford</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:30 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I do like novice handicap chases (a stroke of genius, by whoever invented them !) - and this is a nice example…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The top 3 look like the ones to focus on (probably) - though choosing between them isn’t easy…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Great things were expected of Brelan Das over fences, last season - but he was a big disappointment and ended the season back over hurdles.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He tries the bigger obstacles again tomorrow - and over a shorter trip.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s potentially well handicapped on a mark of 130, as he won a hurdle race off the same mark, 2 years ago.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, whether he’ll be able to replicate that level of form over fences tomorrow, is a different matter…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jurby is just about favourite - and I would expect him to run well.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, he’s already 8 - which is quite old to be making the switch to fences…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d rather side with the 5 year old, Irish Prophecy.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He bumped in to Kalashnikov last season - and then, If the Cap Fits.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He wasn’t disgraced either race - and doesn’t face a rival of their calibre tomorrow (please note clever play on words there :) )</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Irish Prophecy at 7/2 </span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:30</span></b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Emma Lavelle could be in for a double tomorrow afternoon, as I like her De Rasher Counter in this…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was a fair novice hurdle last season - but it’s his debut effort over fences, last time, which catches the eye.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That was in a hot novice chase at Uttoxeter, where he finished third behind Lil Rockerfeller and Wenyerreadyfreddie.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both of those have won good races since and whilst De Rasher Counter was beaten a fair way - he also shaped with a deal of promise…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s a chance that his inexperience could catch him out tomorrow against more seasoned rivals - but if his jumping holds, then I think he will take a bit of beating.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, he faces plenty of interesting rivals, so it won't be a formality.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I wouldn</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’t</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> be surprised to see big runs from both Hogans Height and Creep Desbois - whilst Conna Cross and Too Many Diamonds can also both be given a chance…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: De Rasher Counter at 5/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Huntingdon </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:10 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is just about the best race on the Huntingdon card - and Banditry looks a worthy favourite.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He is potentially very well handicapped - not based on his hurdles form - but on his more recent runs on the flat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s been competitive off a mark of 102 on the flat - and you can usually add about 40 to that to get an equivalent hurdle mark. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He actually runs tomorrow off a mark of 124 - so could have 20lb in hand.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The only trouble is, on his last run over hurdles (12 months ago), he was beaten off a mark of 125.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Of course he may have improved in the interim - or conversely, he just might not be as good over hurdles !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">On balance, at a price of 6/4, I’d be inclined to take him on…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both Distingo and Embole have plenty of scope for improvement - and I’d be inclined to side with one of them.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Of the 2, I would have a slight preference for Embole - and that would increase, if he’s strong in the betting !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: Embole at 5/1</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lingfield</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:20 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Evron catches my eye in this, on his second run for Warren Greatrex.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He disappointed on his stable debut at Carlisle - but should be better for that experience.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The handicapper has dropped him 5lb to a mark of 114 - and he is likely to appreciate the softer ground tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It would be unusual for Munir/Souede to have a poor horse - and I will be a little surprised if Evron isn’t capable of winning off his current mark (and probably a bit higher !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Forecast sets the standard for the race - but he may not appreciate the soft ground.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">And whilst it’s hard to get handle on most of the others - I’m sure the betting will provide a good guide !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Selection: Evron at 5/1</span></span></i></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-45987487163745325562018-11-07T12:43:00.001-08:002018-11-07T12:44:39.122-08:00Thursday November 8th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The word </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">‘soft’ appears in the going description at Newbury tomorrow - and what a difference it’s made to the fields !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">All 7 races on the card, have attracted plenty of runners - and a decent quality.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s quite different from what’s been happening at many of the recent meetings - and hopefully signals a change, which will see the new season move up a gear…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In addition to Newbury, there are also NH meetings at Market Rasen, Sedgefield and Thurles.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">And whilst non of the other 3 can match Newbury for quality, they all host reasonable racing - with the mares chase at Market Rasen, a particular high-light.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Newbury </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12:40 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">New Quay was a massively impressive winner at Ascot on Saturday, and it’s no surprise to see him installed an odds on favourite for this, under a 7lb penalty.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The handicapper saw fit to raise him 17lb for that win, so he is effectively 10lb well in tomorrow…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In the circumstances, Dan Skelton had little option other than to run him - and that concerns me.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The horse is dropping back in trip - and it’s only 5 days since his Ascot win.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He appeared to win with any amount in hand - but we won’t know how much the race took out of him, until it is too late…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In the circumstances, I couldn’t entertain backing him - the trouble is, nothing jumps out to take him on with…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Capitaine is potentially well handicapped back over hurdles - but this looks like a pipe opener, prior to a return to fences; whilst Majestic Touch is probably the most solid option (if a little uninspiring !).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If Rob Walford has shown any form this season, I would be very interested in Our Merlin.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was a big improver last season - and is not badly handicapped off a mark of 123.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He is likely to lead the field, so should make a decent in-running play.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I would suggest backing him pre-race and then laying off during the race, for either ‘free’ bet or a profit - hopefully ! </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1:50</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This is just about the best novice chase run so far this season…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">La Bague au Roi, Lostintranslation and Thomas Campbell are all rated 150+ over hurdles - and all 3 make their chasing debuts in this.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We have to guess on their ability to jump a fence - but my guess is that they'll all be pretty good at it !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That being the case, we could be in for a cracking race !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Le Bague au Roi has won on her seasonal debut for the past 4 seasons - and in receipt of the 7lb sex allowance from her rivals, looks the one to beat.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9/4 isn’t a massive price - but I would have her favourite, so she is worth supporting.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The other 3 runners shouldn’t be good enough to feature (though Talkischeap, isn’t totally out of things).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, I’ll be keeping a particularly close eye on Absolute Power, who will be having his first run for a year, having shown distinct promise over hurdles…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Selection: La Bague au Roi at 9/4</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2:55</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A little like with the opening contest, this race has a short price favourite, who won his most recent race impressively - and who is running here before his new mark kicks in.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This time, it is Ready and Able, who won at Aintree, 11 days ago.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Because that was a conditional jockeys race, Ready and Able escapes a penalty tomorrow: he’s also had a week and half to recover - and is running over the same trip as last time.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In short, I think his credentials are stronger than those of New Quay.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">On the flip side, he faces stronger opposition - but I guess you can’t have everything !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He is likely to take a bit of beating - helped by the fact that a few of his rivals appear to be running in the race, primarily to gain fitness.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That’s not the case with Clondaw Cian - and I was quite taken by his seasonal debut effort at Newton Abbot, last month.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If I were to take on the favourite, it would probably be him that I would side with…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That said, Pilansberg and Rio Quinto could both be of interest, on their return to action, if they came in for significant market support…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3:30 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I can understand why Kapcorse is favourite for this - but he looks a bit short in the market to me, at around 5/2.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He won at Bangor on his chasing debut, in the spring - and still has loads of untapped potential.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, that was a weak race - and he runs off a 12lb higher mark tomorrow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m not saying he can’t win - but based on what we know (and we may not know everything !), he’s no value at tonights price…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d rather take a chance on Silverhow.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He won a decent race at Sandown, on the final day of last season - and whilst he never featured on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, he should be better for that run and will appreciation the drop back in distance.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We are guessing on the fitness for most of the others - but I’m sure the market will advise, close to the off !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Selection: Silverhow at 10/1</span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-44954271896100301862018-11-05T14:02:00.000-08:002018-11-05T14:03:57.613-08:00Tuesday November 6th<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">’s Haldon Gold cup day tomorrow - the biggest day of the season at Exeter.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I did originally wonder whether I might be tipping in the race - but having seen the declarations, I then wondered if it was even worth posting on the blog !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There are just 5 runners in the big race - and most of the other races on the card, are equally uncompetitive .</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It was a similar story at Ascot and Wetherby (in particular), this weekend - we really need some rain, so that trainers are prepared to run their horses…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Exeter </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>2:05 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It really is a disappointing turn out for a race with a rich history.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, it’s still not an easy race to call !</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A peak form God’s Own would win it, off a mark of 156.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A right hand track and good ground are his ideal conditions - the question is whether he will be sufficiently fit (and to a lesser extent, if he is now in decline).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Diego du Charmil and Ozzie the Oscar dispute favourtism, at around 2/1 - but I’d be prepared to take them both on.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Diego, looks harshly handicapped off a mark of 157, as there must be a chance that he was flattered by his Aintree victory at the end of last season (which saw his mark rise by a stone).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I would be much more tempted by Paul Nichols other runner, San Benedtio.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He finished second in this race 12 months ago - beaten only by Politologue (who went on to win a grade 1 chase on his next outing).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">San Benedito gets to run off the same mark tomorrow - and whilst his debut run this season was underwhelming, it was almost certainly just a pipe-opener.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He is the value in the race at 5/1 this evening.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The final runner in the race, is Theo - for Dr Newland - and he also has a chance. That said, I prefer the claims of both San Benedito and Gods Own.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i>Selection: San Benedito at 5/1 - danger Gods Own</i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>3:15 </b></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">With the main supporting event (the novice chase at 2:40) having only attracted 3 runners, this is the only other race on the card, warranting a preview.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Again, its a tough one to call - with it hard to make a particularly strong case for any of the 8 runners.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bottom weight, Canyouringmeback is the one I like most.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was still travelling quite nicely when unseating last time at Wincanton.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He was stepping up in trip that day, so his stamina remains unproven - however, he should enjoy the quick ground and has a progressive profile.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At a bigger price, then Carlos de Fruitier is quite interesting…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ben Pauling runs 2 in the race - and I would expect David Bass to be riding the stable first string.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s therefore interesting that he is partnering Carlos - even though Powerful Symbol is half his price.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In fairness, Carlos has had a bit of an issue with his jumping, so he’s not one you could be confident about.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">However, Exeter is a very fair track - and based on his hurdling form he would definitely stand a chance, if his jumping did click.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He can be backed at 14/1 this evening, which strikes me as a bit of value (even if just as a saver).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Selection: Canyouringmeback at 9/2 </span></i></span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-41093917784611430262018-11-01T11:43:00.001-07:002018-11-01T12:39:05.925-07:00Friday November 2nd<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I’ve spent most of this week, getting things ready for the start of the Main TVB season (which happens to begin today !).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Consequently, I’ve not had time to post on the midweek blog - though in truth, only Tuesday offered suitable racing…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, there is some suitable racing tomorrow - and whilst I tend to shy away from Fridays, I’ll make an exception this week.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The best meeting of the day, takes place at Wetherby - though the best horse, runs at Down Royal…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Wetherby<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>1:20 </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This is not a race to be going mad on - but it does look to lie between the market principals…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Askari represents Gordon Elliot - and he went close last time, in a similar race at Bangor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He should appreciate the drop back in trip tomorrow - and looks the one to beat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, Ballyhome may well be able to beat him, on his debut for Fergal O’Brien.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He finished second on his final run for Brendan Powell - and whilst he has been rasied 4lb for that, Conor Brace is able to claim 8lb.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">3/1 is hardly a generous price in a12 runner handicap - but provided he is ready, I suspect he will prove hard to beat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Ballyhome at 3/1</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>3:05</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This is the best race of the day, by some margin…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I think the field can be split in 2 - those above 11st and those carrying 11st or less - and I don’t fancy any of the top weights.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The trip won’t be far enough for Delusionofgrandeur or Dingo Dollar; whilst it could be too far for Just Cameron (who also has age to contend with).<br />The ground is the problem for Kylemour Lough (he wants it soft); whilst Spalsh of Ginge isn’t well handicapped…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Which leaves the bottom 5 to concentrate on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I’ve no major issue with Born Survivor - and I would expect him to run well. Similarly, if Pain Au Chocolat is fit, he could outrun his odds, as conditions should suit him fine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, I suspect the winner will be one of the bottom 3…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Copain de Classe is the one to beat. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He won well on his seasonal debut at Kempton - and even under a 6lb penalty tomorrow, is 4lb well in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I guess there is a slight possibility that he may ‘bounce’ - but the main issue with him is a price of 7/4…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The 2 to focus on, are therefore Guitar Pete and Cracking Find.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The former won the corresponding race 12 months ago, off a mark 10lb lower. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He followed that up by winning the Caspain Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December - and that was from a mark just 3lb lower than he races off tomorrow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">It’s hard to think that he won’t go close - and 9/2 is a fair price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">However, Cracking Find is marginally more interesting…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He is unproven at this level - but is only 7, so has plenty of scope for improvement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He won 3 races last season, as a novice - and finished the campaign with decent runs in better quality events.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He ran with great promise on his seasonal debut at Wetherby a fortnight ago.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">That was over the bare 2 miles - and he will appreciate being stepped back up in trip tomorrow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Sue Smiths horses tend to improve for their debut run - and I expect Danny Cook will give him a forceful ride.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He’s a general 10/1 shot this evening - and is definitely value at that price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Cracking Find at 10/1 - danger Guitar Pete</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>3:40 </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">It’s impossible to look beyond Storm Rising, for the winner in this…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He hacked up in a stronger contest at Cheltenham a week ago - and because that was a conditional jockeys race, doesn’t get a penalty tomorrow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Assuming that race didn’t bottom him (and it certainly didn’t appear to !) - and there are no accidents along the way - it’s hard to think he won’t win again…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I guess that’s what you’d expect of a 4/7 shot - so the question is what will follow him home..?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">That’s a much trickier call - but Blue Hussar looks to have a better chance than his odds imply…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He’s run well at Wetherby in the past - and has been in reasonable form on the flat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I can’t see him testing Storm Rising - but at 25/1 (5/1 a place), he may well be able to sneak in to the frame…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Selection: Blue Hussar EW at 25/1</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Down Royal<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>1:45 </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The decision has been made: Samcro stays over hurdles this season - and he makes his seasonal debut in this…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He only faces 3 rivals (one of whom has little chance) - but it could still end up quite a test for him…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Sharjah won the Galway hurdle on his most recent outing over obstacles - and on official ratings, in receipt of 8lb from Samcro, he should beat him (and that excludes race fitness advantage, which he also holds).<br />Of course it is rarely that simple - but suffice to say, Samcro will have to be close to his best, if he is to win.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I suspect he will win - because he looks the real deal - but at odds of 1/3, I’ll be watching, rather than betting on it !</span></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2281688841433169855.post-66154039032667416122018-10-27T13:19:00.002-07:002018-10-27T13:42:09.516-07:00Sunday October 28th<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">It was nice to have a few winning selections on the blog today…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">The prime purpose of the blog, is to share my views - not for me to tip (I save that for the Main service !) - but all the same, if I express a strong fancy for a horse, it’s pleasing when it runs well.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">It was particularly pleasing to see Modus run so well this afternoon.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><br /></span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Clearly, he’s not a natural over fences - but he has an abundance of talent - and was ridden by a jockey who gave him plenty of confidence.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Ultimately, that combination was just about enough to get him home in front…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Tomorrows meeting at Aintree is a cracker - with a number of really interesting races.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That said, they are again races which we should be primarily watching and learning from (similar to Chepstow, a couple of weekends ago).</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Obviously, it will be nice if I can pick out another winner (or two !) - but that becomes more important, from next weekend onwards..!</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Anyway, here are my thoughts on each of the races on the card:</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Aintree</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">2:00</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Aye Aye Charlie sets the standard in this - and in fairness, it’s quite a high standard.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He was placed in grade 1 novice company last season - and with a rating of 142, should be more than capable of taking an average maiden, this season (or even, an above average one !).</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That said, he faces a few rivals with some potential - and as a consequence, I couldn’t be interested in him at 1/2.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">If he’s still that price (or shorter !) at the off, then he will almost certainly win - but there is a chance that one of his unexposed rivals could be very useful.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Stoney Mountain is the most obvious one - as he has good bumper form: though I wouldn’t be surprised to see big runs from either Present Ranger or Dorking Cock.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Very much a watching race…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Stoney Mountain at 4/1</span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">1:15</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">This is the first of a series of really fascinating races on the card…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Settimo Milanese heads the market on his first run in a handicap for Dr Newland.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He’s very hard to quantify - but a mark of 125 doesn’t look unreasonable.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He’s 4/1 this evening - and if he’s well backed tomorrow, I suspect he’ll win…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That said, at the prices currently on offer, I’m more inclined to take a chance on Jump for Dough.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He won a couple of handicaps at Musselburgh, early in the year, before finishing fifth in the Pertemps qualifier at the same track.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He wasn’t seen again, until reappearing at Hexham last month.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He ran a nice race that day - looking as if the run would bring him on.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He wears a tongue tie for the first time tomorrow - and if that has the desired effect, I would expect him to run a big race.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">There are plenty of others, of potential interest - so keep an eye on the betting for moves on Spiders Bite and Ready and Able, in particular…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Jump for Dough at 12/1 - danger Settimo Milanese</span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">1:50</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">2 official eye catchers run in this - and the main TVB season hasn’t even started yet !</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Both Beat That and Double Ross, caught the eye in a the veterans race at Chepstow 2 weeks ago - and I would expect both to run well tomorrow.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">The betting has picked up on Beat That.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><br /></span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That’s understandable - as he still has potential (even though he is a veteran !).</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He may win - but 5/2 is too short in such a competitive race…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Double Ross on the other hand, is an 8/1 shot - and worthy of support at that price.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He caught my eye last time, simply because he looked so full of himself !</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Assuming he’s not quite as exuberant tomorrow (he fell at the very first fence, last time!), I think he will run a big race.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">The other one of particular interest in the race, is Pendra.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He is a very fragile horse - and he tends to run his best races, first time out.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">This is his first run in a veterans chase - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him backed in to favouritism.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">If you can secure the 7/1 on offer this evening, he’s definitely worth a saver….</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Double Ross at 8/1 - danger Pendra</span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">3:25</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">I don’t have a particularly strong view on this race (but it is still very interesting !).</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Bryon Flyer looks the one to beat - but a price of 3/1 isn’t particularly tempting…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">In fact, Paisley Park holds more appeal at 10/1 - though I wouldn't be surprised to see either Haul Away or Lygon rock, beat them both…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Unfortunately, the 4 named, head the market.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">At the prices, Paisley Park is probably the value option - even if he may not be the most likely winner…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Paisley Park at 10/1</span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">3:00</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">The big race of the day is a real cracker - tho I suspect the market has things about right…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That said, I would be prepared to take on Cloudy Dram on his debut for Donald McCain.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">He’s very talented horse - but quite a polite one too (he’s generally prepared to let one of his rivals go in front of him !)</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">On pure weights and measure, he can’t beat Flying Angel.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That one had his measure when the 2 met over course and distance, 18 months ago - and he’s 12 lb better off tomorrow.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">However, whereas Cloudy Dream is a model of consistency, Flying Angle is anything but !</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">That said, at respective prices of 11/4 and 11/2, you have to take a risk on Flying Angel…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Frodon is the other one of major interest - but he’s third fav behind Cloudy Dream and Flying Angel.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Certainly, I would struggle to make a strong case for any of the longer priced runners…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Flying Angel at 11/2</span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">3:35</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">This is another really interesting race - but a hard one to call…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">All of the runners have significant potential - so it really is a race best watched.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">I’ll take Polydora and Lord du Mesnil against the field - but mainly because they offer a bit of ‘value’.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Both are completely unexposed - and I’m a fan of their respective trainers.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">I don’t know whether either will prove good enough to win tomorrow - but I’ll be a little surprised if both don’t win races this season…</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Lord du Mesnil at 16/1 - danger Polydora</span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">5:10</span></b><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">There is too much guesswork required to offer a proper selection in this.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><br /></span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">However, I suspect that Rebecca Curtis is going to bounce back this season - and Legends Gold looks like the kind of horse she has historically done well with.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">If it’s expected to win, it will be backed (even shorter than the 4/1 available this evening).</span><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0pt;">Selection: Legends Gold at 4/1</span></i><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div>
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0