Monday October 23rd

Review 

It was fascinating to watch both the racing –and the betting – at Plumpton, this afternoon…

The money continued to pour on to both Cheque en Blanc and Cheltenham de Vaige in the 3:30.

They were sent off at 6/4 and 5/2 respectively – which meant that between them, they accounted for nearly 70% of the market in a seemingly open looking 11 runner handicap !  (the equivalent of a 1/2  shot)

However, neither of them could reel in all the way winner, Kenyan – which just goes to show the danger of piling in at short prices…

Ridgeway Flyer got the best of a tight finish to the 4:00 race.

He was a drifter this morning – but was strong in the pre-race market (SP of 7/2).

That’s not the first time in the past week, that a horse has drifted during the morning – but been backed late, before winning (Vic de Touzaine and Ballotin, spring to mind).

I think it is simply demonstrating market dynamics.

When a horse has been put in short on the opening show, it will often drift during the morning, before strengthening come the off.

It does mean that there should be a bit of value available around lunchtime – which is good news, as that’s generally a time when the bookmakers are reasonably happy to accept bets…

Teak was a NR in the 4:30 – leaving just Invicta Lake and Kris Spin to represent the ‘old brigade’.

The pre-off market suggested that Invicta Lake would need the run – and that seemed to be the case (in fact, I wonder how much ability he retains).
Kris Spin also ran as if he needed the run – though he did run pretty well.

Given the right circumstances, he could be one to be interested in, next time...

Lunchtime Update

The price of Cheque en Blanc has been completely destroyed in the 3:30 race !

He was 14/1 in a place, when I posted last night – but you can’t now beat 7/4 !

That’s some punt !

I was concerned about the lack of headgear – but it would seem that is not considered an issue !

Market moves like that, show why I’m so reticent about getting involved with the low-grade mid-week racing…

In response to the support for Cheque en Blanc, the price of Cheltenham de Vaige has drifted slightly – but only a touch (he is now 10/3).

If you aren’t in the know, it’s not a race that you can consider getting involved with…

Unlike Cheque en Blanc, his stablemate, Crystal Lad, has been a big drifter in the 4:00…

He was 8/1 last night – but is an easy to back, 16/1 shot now – the suggestion being that he will need the run…

Ridgeway Flyer is also quite weak in the betting; with Accord and Theos Charm, the two for money.

The latter is particularly interesting, as he is a good quality animal – and there must be a chance that he’s been primed for today, as he is trained by Nick Gifford, whose father Josh, is remembered in the name of one of the earlier races on the card…

Invicta Lake and Teak, have both been solid in the market for the 4:30 – but it’s the late moves that will count (particularly with the latter).

Kris Spin is a drifter, suggesting he may need the run…

Evening Preview

There are some interesting horses running at Plumpton tomorrow – though most of the races look minefields, so it’ll be more a question of watching (both the horses - and the betting !) and learning…

Cheltenham de Vaige is very much the one of interest in the 3:30 race, on his debut for Fergal O’Brien – though you couldn’t really get involved with him at the early 3/1, without at least a bit of inside knowledge…

Cheque en Blanc also looks quite interesting, on his first run for Gary Moore – though he goes without his usual headgear, which raises a note of concern.

I’m sure the market will advise !

The 4:00 is a nearly impossible race to call – full of seasonal debutantes and stable switchers…

I like Crystal Lad best – but he may need the run; as too could Ridgeway Flyer on his debut for Paul Nicholls - and top weight Theos Charm.

That said, all 3 are capable of going close, if straight enough…

Accord is probably the one to beat – but is also probably beatable !

The other one of interest, at a price (14/1), is Apple of our Eye.

That said, it really is a race to watch, with an eye to the future…

The 4:30 looks equally trappy – but for a slightly different reason…

The 3 most interesting runners, are the 3 oldest: Teak, Invicta Lake and Kris Spin.

I suspect all 3 would have been capable of wining it, when at their peaks – the question is how much ability remains…

Kris Spin is making his seasonal debut: whilst Invicta Lake is returning from nearly 2 years off the track.

If Invicta Lake retains most his old ability (and is sufficiently fit), he should win – but the jockey booking sends mixed messages.

Tom O’Brien and Paddy Brennan have ridden the horse in the past – but Jack Sherwood rides tomorrow. More positively, Jack Sherwood has a reasonable record for Suzy Smith…

Teak is probably the safest option of the 3 – with a saver on Invicta Lake (and an eye on any market moves !)