Thursday 21 March 2019

Friday 22nd March

With the TVB season ending in a fortnights time, I doubt there will be many more posts on the mid week blog, this season…

The first 2 months of the year are always very quiet.
Even if the weather doesn’t takes its toll, there are precious few decent races run during the mid week…

Then ofcourse, March arrives - and brings Cheltenham - followed swiftly by Aintree…

However, tomorrow is one of those rare days, when there is some reasonable mid week racing.

It’s the first day of a 2 day meeting at Newbury, and they’ve put on an interesting and varied card…


Newbury

2:20

This isn’t an easy race to call (the case with just about every race on the card !) - but Tanit River looks quite interesting, with Richard Johnson on board…
The horse is not very reliable - but he has got significant ability and is now on a mark just 1lb higher than the one he won from at Sandown, last February.
That was a fair race - and whilst he has done little in his 3 subsequent outings, I’m not too worried about that.
He raced with a fair bit of enthusiasm last time - in first time cheek pieces.
He didn’t get home that day - and they have now been dispensed with - but they did suggest that his fire still burns.
The booking of Dickie is an interesting move - and course, trip and ground should all be fine.
Most of the otters can be given a chance - with nothing standing out as a particular danger.
Voie dans Voite is an understandable favourite, on the back of a very good run last time.
However, he has a poor win record - and holds limited appeal at a price of 5/2.

Selection: Tanit River at 10/1

4:00

Another very open looking race, where half a dozen could be given a chance.
That said, I could be quite keen on Kings Walk.
He ran very well last time, when finishing second to an extremely well handicapped horse.
He’s been raised 3lb for the effort - but that only puts him on the same mark that he won from over hurdles, last season.
The concerns are the trip (he’s unproven over 3 miles) - and the form of his stable.
As a consequence, I would be disinclined to chase his price down - even though I think he has the ability to win.
Again, most of his rivals can be given a chance - with Red Rising just about the most interesting of those, at this evenings prices (around 10/1).

Selection: Kings Walk

4:30 

A class 2 handicap during the mid week is a rare thing..!
Nube Negra is an understandable favourite - but 5/2 looks too short.
He seemed to be travelling well last time - but he fell - and it’s never appealing to take a short price on a horse running on the back of a fall…
It’s yet another race where cases can be made for quite a few - but I’d be inclined to take a small risk on a couple at decent prices…
Late Night Lilly is a stablemate of Nubre Negra - and she was noted making good late headway last time, on her first run for over a year.
If she can build on that, I could see her outrunning her odds…
Prince Charmin is the other one of interest, at the prices.
He ran well on his debut for Tim Vaughan last time - and has subsequently undergone a wind op.
The booking of a useful 7lb claimer is an interesting move - and again, he appears to have been under-estimated by the betting.
You should be able to dutch the pair of them at odds of around 6/1 - and that holds  more appeal from a betting perspective, than the likes of Sunshade, Maquisard, Zanza and William H Bonney (who are all a similar price).

Selections: Late Night Lilly at 12/1 and Prince Charmin at 12/1

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