Sunday, 29 October 2017

Monday October 30th


Robintheaulad remained strong in the market at Ayr – and was sent off a 9/2 shot. However, it was a very competitive race – and he wasn’t good enough...
He ran an honest race, but was well beaten, when falling at the final fence.

Chu Chu Percy drifted back to 10/1 at the off – but he ran really well.
He hadn’t got the pace to go with the winner when he quickened clear early in the home straight. However, he was closing him down, as the line came and was ultimately only beaten just over a length.
Given a bit more of a stamina test, he should be able to go one better…

At Galway, The Plotting Shed did drift a little before the off – and was returned at 2/1 (a little bigger on BF).

He ran well – but Presenting Percy was too good for him.
It will be interesting to see how far the winner can go over fences – as he certainly looks a horse of considerable potential.

I thought that 2/1 was a bit short for Call it Magic – but after a morning drift, he was back into that price at the off.

And in truth, he looked a good bet, for most of the race; jumping well and travelling strongly.
He won with a fair bit in hand, and whilst he may not be in the same league as Presenting Percy, it will also be interesting to see how far he can progress.

Dromnea tried to keep tabs on him, but wasn’t up to the job.
He started to feel the pinch about half a mile form home – at which point, mistakes began to creep in.
He appeared to have quite a hard race in defeat…

Lunchtime Update

I did very well when I looked  at Ayr, last night – as I managed to high-light the 2 best backed horses on the entire card !

In the novice handicap chase at 2:40, Robintheaulad has been backed in from 10/1 last night – to a best price of 5/1 (generally 4/1); whilst in the 3:15 race, Chu Chu Percy has been backed in from 14/1 last night, to a best price of 13/2 (6/1 generally).

Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean they will win ! – the market moves are most likely to be either  corrections to price errors in the early prices – or as a result of this blog having more of an impact on the early market, than I anticipated ! (in truth, I suspect the former !)

The key with both horses, will be whether they remain strong in the market at the off – as there is a danger they will both drift, as they have arguably now been over-backed…

At Galway, De Plotting Shed is very strong in the market for the beginners chase (1:45).
He’s now a 6/4 shot, which strikes me as too short (it has possibly been caused by Andy Holding tipping him).
Again, the later market moves will be the key ones.
I would be inclined to lay him at 6/4 – and hope that his price drifts close to the off (at which point, I’d back him)…

Call it Magic has drifted in the 2:25 race, which is what I expected.
Dromnea hasn’t been backed – but that doesn’t really bother me.
I think he’s a fair bet at the 7/1 available now…

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Galway and Wexford in Ireland – and Ayr in Scotland…

The best racing takes place at Galway – with the high light of the card, the Beginners chase at 1:45

Presenting Percy and Mall Dini give Patrick Kelly a very strong hand (you would have thought he could have found separate races for his 2 stable stars !).
Davy Russell rides the former, which suggests he’s the more fancied (though Ruby isn’t a bad reserve, for Mall Dini !).
De Plotting Shed appears to be Gordon Elliotts main hope – though Free Expression and Sutton Manor are also both very useful.
It’s a race where you would have to be guided by the betting – but it looks likely to be a fascinating contest…

The following race offers a better chance for a wager…
Call it Magic is arguably under-priced – as he is unexposed and has Ruby on board.
He maybe good enough to win – but 2/1 is not much of a price…
I’d rather side with Dromea.
He caught my eye travelling very strongly last time, in the Munster National.
He didn’t get home in that race – but he’s dropped back 2 furlongs in trip, tomorrow – and that’s sure to help.
He finished second in the corresponding race last year, off a 6lb lower mark – but I think he’s in better for this season (as most of Mouse Morris’s horses are).
6/1 this evening, is a fair enough price…

There’s a really interesting novice handicap chase at Ayr, off at 2:40.
Royal Plaza has been installed favourite on the back off a good run last time.
The trouble is, he’s a bit of a professional loser - and it is likely to take all of Dickies ‘cajoling’ to get him home in front…
Also, there are plenty of potential dangers in the race…
Socksy, Star Tackle and Robintheaulad look the 3 main ones.
The latter is Danny Cooks only ride of the day – and at 10/1 this evening, he looks a decent bet…

Chu Chu Percy is the one that interests me most in the following conditional jockeys handicap hurdle…
He’s making his handicap debut, having been well-backed last time he ran, in a novice event, last December.
He will need to have improved since then – but the eye catching booking of James Bowen, suggests that may well be the case.
If he’s well supported in the market (14/1 this evening), it’s probably worth taking the hint…

Thursday, 26 October 2017

Friday October 27th


I just love Cheltenham ! and I particularly love Derek O Connor !!

The guy isn’t top notch – he’s different class !

He may have been on the best horse in the 4:20 race, in the shape of What Happens Now – but he still gave him a sublime ride.

Simply, O Connor wins races that other wouldn’t, because he makes moves that others wouldn’t.
He’s not afraid to take the initiative – and his judgement of pace and a stride, is peerless.

As you can probably tell, I’m a fan !!

Indian Castle ran a very good race to follow him home – with Petite Power also running well to finish fourth.

3 in the first 4 (out of 4 mentions), wasn’t a bad effort…

I didn’t do too badly in 3:10 race either…

I was slightly put off by Tim Vaughans Cheltenham losing streak of 153 – but as I said, he was bound to have a winner eventually !

And on his only ride of the day, Dickie Johnson steered home Master Dancer to a comfortable 10 length win.
Quite a way for Vaughan to break his losing streak !

KK Lexion ran well to finish third in the same race: as did Trans Express to finish fifth (he was also subject to some serious late market support).

It was all a bit too much for Golan Fortune – but there will be other days for him…

The market accurately predicted events in the novice chase at 2:35.
Movewiththetimes was friendless – and ran as if needing the outing: whilst North Hill Harvey was subject to strong market support and just managed to get the better of favourite, Sceau Royal.

Beat That took a novicey fall in the novice chase (3:45) – which was a shame, as I thought he was travelling quite well at the time.
I somehow doubt the horse is every going to reach the heights that I once envisaged…

Finally, High Expectations crossed the line first in the concluding handicap hurdle – but without his jockey on top !

He unshipped him at the third last and then proceeded to get in the way of most of the other runners.
This all played into the hands of race leader, Bobble Emerald – who was a gutsy, if slightly fortuitous winner.
Instant Karma ran a reasonable race – but not really one to suggest that a win is imminent… 

Lunchtime Update 

The market seems to be favouring Sceau Royal in the novice chase at 2:35.
It’s likely to be a watching race for me though, regardless…

One Forty Seven has been subject to huge market support in the handicap hurdle at 3:10.
He’s certainly got the profile of a potential improver – and NTD does like to target his horses at this meeting.
I’d be inclined to take the support seriously…

Golan Fortune has held his place in the market, which is nice to see: whilst Eaton Hill has drifted (probably as a consequence of the support for One Forty Seven).

KK Lexion is another who has remained solid – but Trans Express has been very weak…

As with the previous contest, I think a watching brief is the best advice…

Beat That is weak in the market for the novice chase at 3:45 – he’s another one who I’m likely to just watch…

There’s been a lot of support for both Indian Castle and Bugsie Malone in the 4:20 race.
I can understand the former (he’s got that kind of profile) – but the latter is more interesting (I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him drift).
In the circumstances, it could be worth having Bugsie Malone on side.

I’d also be inclined to stick with What Happens Now.
He’s a 12/1 shot – and with 17 runners, bookmakers will pay ¼ odds on the first 4.
As I said last night, he really should run his race - so that price holds some appeal…

Instant Karma can now be backed at 33/1 in places for the 5:30 race – but that’s OK,  I didn’t really expect him to be supported.
The apparent lack of support for High Expectations is more concerning – though there is a chance the money will arrive late…

Evening Preview 

Whilst there’s a temptation to get stuck in tomorrow - just because it’s Cheltenham - I don’t think that would be wise…

We are still very much in the 'pre-season': almost half of tomorrows runners will be  making their seasonal debut, and whilst there should be a little less guesswork, with regard to fitness (because some of the trainers will have targeted their horses at the meeting), there will still be more of it required than ideal…

Consequently, I’m inclined to mainly suggest horses which should be monitored, with a view to a future – though I guess you could take a small risk on one or two of them (if you are that way inclined !)

There is a cracking novice chase at 2:35 – and I’ll be a little surprised if it’s not won by one of the 2 market leaders…
Sceau Royal has already won on his fencing debut at Warwick – but he has to give 5lb to the potentially high class Movewiththetimes, and that is a big ask…
He could be up to it – and the market will doubtless have a view close to the off.
At this point in time however, I would rather sit on the fence…

The first of the days big field handicaps is off at 3:10.
There are plenty of interesting runners – and I’ll be keeping a close eye on the betting for quite a few of them…
Top weight, KK Lexion interests me – as he was very impressive when winning at Wincanton last season, before going off the boil.
I could also be interested in Master Dancer – if it weren’t for Tim Vaughans dreadful Cheltenham record.
I guess he’ll get a winner at the course one day – and the horse is Dickies only ride of the day…
Trans Express is another of interest, following his seasonal debut win at Exeter.
Though, he’s 7lb higher in the weights tomorrow, and steps up in trip – so has a bit to prove.
Eaton Hill is the race favourite - and certainly has some form which justifies that: however the one of most interest to me, is Golan Fortune.
He’s completely unexposed under rules, having only run twice over hurdles.
That inexperience could catch him out – but it’s fascinating that he’s running in this race (and not a novice event).
He could go either way, but at 20/1, may be worth a tiny risk…

I’ve always liked Beat That as a horse and it will be interesting to see if he can get his career back on track in the 3:45.
He’s held by favourite, Fagan, on Perth running – but may be capable of better than he showed that day.

In the amateur riders race at 4:20, I’ll take 4 against the field:
What Happens Now, is the most solid – particularly with Derek O Connor on board.
He really should run his race…
Indian Castle is handicapped to win – but hasn’t run for over 500 days.
He has Sam Waley-Cohen in the saddle, which again, looks a statement of intent.
I like the profile of Bugsie Malone best – but he is unproven over the course: whilst the fourth one I want onside, is Petite Power – primarily because it is trained by Fergal O’Brien (who has a very good Cheltenham record)
Prices this evening are 9/1, 9/1, 10/1 and 16/1 – for reference purposes…

The final race of interest on the card, is the closing handicap hurdle.
A bit like with Master Dancer, I could be interested in Our Kylie, if it weren’t for the poor Cheltenham record of Brian Ellison.
High Expectations for Gordon Elliott looks more than capable of winning – particularly if backed (he’s 6/1 this evening).
Whilst I’m also quite interested in Instant Karma, on his first run for Jamie Snowden.
He’s potentially well handicapped, if he has been brought back to form – and the fitting of a tongue tie is an interesting move.
He can be backed at 20/1 this evening…

Wednesday, 25 October 2017

Thursday October 26th


Barlow was eventually well backed for the handicap chase at Ludlow (2:30) – though maybe not quite as well backed as his SP of 4/1 suggests (he was 5/1 on BF).

He ran like a horse in need of the outing: finding himself outpaced, before getting his second wind; and then fading in the home straight.
Assuming the run has brought him on, then he could well be of interest next time.

Valhalla was very well backed in the 3:00 (SP of 6/4) – but there was an early pace war and he couldn’t get to the front.
He never looked happy settled in behind and ultimately ran disappointingly.
He has ability but looks like a horse to tread carefully with…

Grand Coureur should arguably have won the 4:05.
He travelled really strongly and appeared the winner, turning in. However he had done too much, too soon and faded up the home straight.
He’s another who could be of interest next time (given a more patient ride).

At Southwell, Twist of Ginge ran well to finish runner up in he 2:40.
He’s gradually finding his feet over fences and should be able to pick up a race.

Bohernagore did manage to lead in the 3:45 – but he was never able to race easily and was beaten turning in.
Maybe he needs a break…

Finally, Kap Jazz was weak in the betting at Carlisle (4:25) – and he ran as if the race was needed.
I would expect him to do better next time…

Lunchtime Update

At Ludlow, there hasn’t been much morning support for Barlow (2:30) – and I would view that as a negative…
The important money tends to be placed just before the off – but I still suspect he would have been backed down from his current 7/1, if he was fancied…

Valhalla (3:00) has been backed – but Darebin has been subject to even stronger support…
In truth, I don’t even see it as a 2 horse race, so my enthusiasm for Valhalla at his current price of 9/4, is limited…

I didn’t mention Grand Coureur last night (4:05).
I was interested in him when he made his seasonal debut at Bangor, at the start of the month.
He ran really poorly that day, so it’s interesting to see him so strong in the market this morning.
If there was a good explanation for his Bangor run, I could see him going close.

At Southwell, there has been a NR in Twist on Ginges race (2:40) – and he can now be backed at 7/2.
That strikes me as about the right price.

Bohernagore is out to 12/1 in the 3:45 – and I think he’s interesting at that price (even if only as an in-running trade).

Finally, at Carlisle, in the face of good support for Bigirononhiship, Kap Jazz has drifted out to 6/1 in the 4:25 race.
He could be worth a small risk at that price…

Evening Preview 

It was interesting to see Aunty Ann win the opener at Worcester today.
She was one of the horses I was interested in, in my first post of the season:

She wasn’t up to the job that day – but stepped up a little in trip today, she came good.
Hopefully the blog will pick out a few more similar types, over the next few weeks…

There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow – but it’s a question of quantity over quality (as you would expect at this time of the year).

The best meeting of the day is probably at Ludlow, where there are a couple of races of interest…

If Emma Lavelle has got Barlow back to anything close to his best, then he should dot up in the handicap chase at 2:30.
He was rated 126 in his peak – and is still only 10.
We can only guess as to why he was sent to the pointing field early (he was only 7) – but off a mark of just 100 today, he could easily have 2 stone in hand.
The trip, track and ground will suit him well – and if he’s backed, I’d take the hint (he’s a 13/2 shot this evening).

Valhalla was an unofficial eye catcher last time, when he made his seasonal debut at Stratford.
I felt he travelled really well that day but didn’t get home over the 2m6f trip.
He’s dropped to the minimum distance tomorrow (3:00) – a tactic that worked over hurdles at Taunton, earlier in the year.
He got an aggressive front running ride that day - and if Harry Cobden does the same tomorrow, he is likely to take a bit of catching.
He’s 11/4 this evening – which isn’t overly generous in a tight looking 6 runner race – but I reckon he’s the most likely winner…

In the 2:40 at Southwell, Twist on Ginge looks to build on his debut run over fences at Newton Abbot, a couple of weeks ago.
He ran a fair race that day and if that has brought him on, he should go close tomorrow.
It’s another tight little handicap – but 11/2 strikes me as a fair price…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:45, Bohernagore is the one that interests me most…
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Kelso, when he did too much too soon.
He was a faller last week at Huntingdon and is now in danger of being written off, after 2 ‘disappointing’ runs…
In fairness, he has got a bit to prove – but I think he could be worth a small risk at the 9/1 available this evening.
Regardless, he’s likely to be a good back to lay in-running, as he will almost certainly lead (and travel strongly).

Finally, at Carlisle, the race of greatest interest is the handicap chase at 4:25.
Kap Jazz for Venetia is the one I like most - though I would have preferred a slightly bigger price (he’s a 5/1 shot).
In truth, I would not be surprised to see him drift tomorrow - and he would definitely be of interest at around 7/1.
He’s young and unexposed – and whilst the takes on a few dangerous looking rivals (Bigirononhiship, Courtown Oscar and Shanrow Santos) he is the one I like the look of most…

Monday, 23 October 2017

Tuesday October 24th


Aside from Yanworth, it wasn’t easy to find the winners at Exeter today…

Harefield was very well backed pre-race in the novice hurdle (into 4/1 from 10/1 at lunchtime) – but he was too free early and had nothing left when the race developed in earnest.
With Kapcorse disappointing (as the market predicted), it was the apparent JP McManus second string, Onefortheroadtom, who got the better of favourite, Lalor.
Harefield could only plug on into a distant fourth place…

Vieux Lille went off a very well backed favourite for the handicap chase at 3:20 but he never really featured.
Duelling Banjos was also well backed (in to 11/2 at the off) and he ran a big race, leading to the final fence.
Bindon Mill was weak in the betting (SP of 12/1) and clouted a couple of fences, so in the circumstances, he did well to finish fourth
There should be a race in him off his current mark.

Sutters Mill remained strong in the market for the 3:50 – but was very disappointing and never featured.
The race was won by seasonal debutante, Midnight Request, under excellent 7lb claimer, James Bowen.
Forgethesmalltalk was the one to take out of the race, however…

Finally, Yanworth put up a very professional performance to get the better of Sternrubin.
I felt he had a job on today, against the talented, race fit runner-up, so the fact he despatched him relatively easily, must augur well for the season ahead.

After Petit Mouchoir and Death Duty last week, there is a chance that we might have seen the winners of the 3 Cheltenham novice championship chase events, in the past few days !

Lunchtime Update

Lalor is very strong on the market for the 2:50 – which suggests that Kapcourse isn’t particularly fancied.
Harefield, EW at 10/1, looks the bet in the race…

The most notable market moves in the 3:20 have been for Vieux Lille and Zephyros Bleu.
Both are seasonal debutantes, so the money could be significant – equally, it could be tipster driven…
In truth, it’s a very open contest – and not one which I’ve got a particularly strong view on…

Sutters Mill is a strong 4/1 shot in the 3:50, which isn’t too surprising, as he has few question marks against him.
He really should run his race and be there or thereabouts…

Finally in the 4:50 race, Sternrubin can still be backed at 4/1 to upset Yanworth, which, all things being equal, should be an EW bet to nothing…

Evening Preview 

There’s another interesting card at Exeter tomorrow – though again, it is more one to watch, than to bet in…

There are quite a few interesting runners in the novice hurdle at 2:50 – chief amongst them first and second favourites, Lalor and Kapcorse…
That said, I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss Harefield: whilst Onefortheroadtom and Snapdragon Fire are also of some interest…

There are also plenty of potential interest in the 3:20 race – though the fitness of most of them, has to be taken on trust…
Bindon Mill is the one of that interests me most  – but he’s not run for over 200 days.
He’s a 9/1 shot this evening and the market may advise on his readiness…
Duelling Banjos, Vieux Lille, Sartorial Elegance and Umberto Dolivate are others of interest – but again, all are making their seasonal debut, so you are guessing on their fitness…
I would expect the market to provide some pointers – but probably only close to the off…

Sutters Mill has least question marks against him in the 3:50 race – as he is progressive and race fit.
However, there is a chance that one or two of his rivals could improve past him – and he’s only a 5/1 shot.
I guess he could be backed EW at that price, with no loss if he places – which may not be a bad bet…

The reappearance of Yanworth in the beginners chase at 4:50, is the high-light of the card.
He’s rated 163 over hurdles, which gives him 20lb in hand of his nearest rival- Sternrubin.
However, Sternrubin will be fit from the flat – and maybe better suited to tomorrows test.
Provided he jumps round, Sternrubin should finish no worse than second – which could make him of interest, if the price is right (currently 4/1 at best).

Sunday, 22 October 2017

Monday October 23rd


It was fascinating to watch both the racing –and the betting – at Plumpton, this afternoon…

The money continued to pour on to both Cheque en Blanc and Cheltenham de Vaige in the 3:30.
They were sent off at 6/4 and 5/2 respectively – which meant that between them, they accounted for nearly 70% of the market in a seemingly open looking 11 runner handicap !  (the equivalent of a 1/2  shot)
However, neither of them could reel in all the way winner, Kenyan – which just goes to show the danger of piling in at short prices…

Ridgeway Flyer got the best of a tight finish to the 4:00 race.
He was a drifter this morning – but was strong in the pre-race market (SP of 7/2).
That’s not the first time in the past week, that a horse has drifted during the morning – but been backed late, before winning (Vic de Touzaine and Ballotin, spring to mind).

I think it is simply demonstrating market dynamics.
When a horse has been put in short on the opening show, it will often drift during the morning, before strengthening come the off.
It does mean that there should be a bit of value available around lunchtime – which is good news, as that’s generally a time when the bookmakers are reasonably happy to accept bets…

Teak was a NR in the 4:30 – leaving just Invicta Lake and Kris Spin to represent the ‘old brigade’.
The pre-off market suggested that Invicta Lake would need the run – and that seemed to be the case (in fact, I wonder how much ability he retains).
Kris Spin also ran as if he needed the run – though he did run pretty well.
Given the right circumstances, he could be one to be interested in, next time...

Lunchtime Update

The price of Cheque en Blanc has been completely destroyed in the 3:30 race !
He was 14/1 in a place, when I posted last night – but you can’t now beat 7/4 !
That’s some punt !
I was concerned about the lack of headgear – but it would seem that is not considered an issue !
Market moves like that, show why I’m so reticent about getting involved with the low-grade mid-week racing…

In response to the support for Cheque en Blanc, the price of Cheltenham de Vaige has drifted slightly – but only a touch (he is now 10/3).
If you aren’t in the know, it’s not a race that you can consider getting involved with…

Unlike Cheque en Blanc, his stablemate, Crystal Lad, has been a big drifter in the 4:00
He was 8/1 last night – but is an easy to back, 16/1 shot now – the suggestion being that he will need the run…
Ridgeway Flyer is also quite weak in the betting; with Accord and Theos Charm, the two for money.
The latter is particularly interesting, as he is a good quality animal – and there must be a chance that he’s been primed for today, as he is trained by Nick Gifford, whose father Josh, is remembered in the name of one of the earlier races on the card…

Invicta Lake and Teak, have both been solid in the market for the 4:30 – but it’s the late moves that will count (particularly with the latter).
Kris Spin is a drifter, suggesting he may need the run…

Evening Preview

There are some interesting horses running at Plumpton tomorrow – though most of the races look minefields, so it’ll be more a question of watching (both the horses - and the betting !) and learning…

Cheltenham de Vaige is very much the one of interest in the 3:30 race, on his debut for Fergal O’Brien – though you couldn’t really get involved with him at the early 3/1, without at least a bit of inside knowledge…
Cheque en Blanc also looks quite interesting, on his first run for Gary Moore – though he goes without his usual headgear, which raises a note of concern.
I’m sure the market will advise !

The 4:00 is a nearly impossible race to call – full of seasonal debutantes and stable switchers…
I like Crystal Lad best – but he may need the run; as too could Ridgeway Flyer on his debut for Paul Nicholls - and top weight Theos Charm.
That said, all 3 are capable of going close, if straight enough…
Accord is probably the one to beat – but is also probably beatable !
The other one of interest, at a price (14/1), is Apple of our Eye.
That said, it really is a race to watch, with an eye to the future…

The 4:30 looks equally trappy – but for a slightly different reason…
The 3 most interesting runners, are the 3 oldest: Teak, Invicta Lake and Kris Spin.
I suspect all 3 would have been capable of wining it, when at their peaks – the question is how much ability remains…
Kris Spin is making his seasonal debut: whilst Invicta Lake is returning from nearly 2 years off the track.
If Invicta Lake retains most his old ability (and is sufficiently fit), he should win – but the jockey booking sends mixed messages.
Tom O’Brien and Paddy Brennan have ridden the horse in the past – but Jack Sherwood rides tomorrow. More positively, Jack Sherwood has a reasonable record for Suzy Smith…
Teak is probably the safest option of the 3 – with a saver on Invicta Lake (and an eye on any market moves !)

Saturday, 21 October 2017

Saturday October 21st


Cracksman got all the plaudits – but the star of the day for me, was The New One.

As brave as ever he recorded his 19th career win in the Welsh Champion hurdle.
Cracksman and Enable can’t muster that many wins between them ! – which in a nutshell, is the difference between NH and flat racing…

Elsewhere, there was a lot of woodwork rattling !

Non more so than Giveaway Glance at Stratford.
I thought she was the best bet on a tricky day – and despite a late market drift, she got within a short head of proving me right…

Bristol de Mais absence made life a lot easier for Romain de Senam - but he only just got the better of Burtons Well.
I suspect his winning run will stop at 2 (unless he’s given a long rest)…

Itshardto No drifted to a backable price – which was a shame, as he never really featured in a race won well by El Terremoto.

Jurby was well backed in the 4:45 – but ran green and couldn’t quite get past an enterprisingly ridden winner.

Sultana Belle was even better backed in the finale, with an unbelievable SP of 7/2.
She ran OK – but never looked likely to win.

At Market Rasen, Legende Volante also ran OK (for a 100/1 shot !)..
She definitely has ability – and may appreciate a drop back to 2 miles.

McKenzies Friend is definitely becoming an enigma.
Backed in to 4/1 at one point, he was out to 12/1 at the off (on BF) – and ran as the betting suggested he would.
He really can only be watched (with interest, though !).
Cry Wolf on the other hand, ran really well to finish third.

Finally, West Approach made quite an impressive debut over fences – it’ll be interesting to see how far he can go.

Whilst Al Dancer completed the woodwork rattling, with a close second in the Ffos Las finale…

Lunchtime update

There’s not been much movement of interest in the morning markets – just a few of the more speculative ones getting backed (the key will be whether they remain strong to the off).


The price of Giveaway Glance (2:30) has remained unchanged at 8/1.
She’s worth a small risk at those odds.

Walk in the Mill (3:00) has had a few points shaved off his price (now 10/1) – but that could easily be ‘value hunters’…

Itshard to No (3:35) has shortened a fraction in price (now 5/1) – I’ll have to wait a little longer for the drift !

Jurby (4:45) has been trimmed from 8/1 to 6/1 – and that is quite interesting.
Further support would almost certainly be significant.

Similarly, Sultana Belle (5:45) is now a best price of 6/1.
I suspect she’s not travelled over for a day out !

Ffos Las

Brelan Das (3:20) has usurped West approach at the head of the market – but you pay your money and make your choice.

There’s been a bit of support for the 2 outsiders in the Welsh Champion hurdle (4:25)  – but again, it’s probably just people trying to get some value.

Duc Kauto has been backed in to 5/1, to beat Cereal Killer (5:35) – but I doubt it is significant money…

Market Rasen

Legende Volante (1:10) can now be backed at 100/1 in a place – and there are still 8 runners in the race.
I’ve backed her EW…

Money has unsurprisingly come for MacKenzies Friend (2:50); whilst Cry Wolf remains roughly the same price as first thing (with the NRs taken into consideration).

Early Morning Preview 

With Champions day taking place at Ascot, today is the final Saturday before the end of March, when the flat racing is more significant than the jumps.

There are no ‘big’ jumps races today – so rather than produce a full write-up, I’ve decided to just put a few thoughts and pointers on the mid-week blog (accepting it isn’t actually the mid week !).

I’ll look to update them at lunchtime – and review this evening…


Alan King tends to do well with mares – and well at Stratford – and Giveaway Glance is his only runner on today card (2:30).
She’s had a pipe opener on the flat – and despite this being a relatively competitive event, looks a fair bet at 8/1…

Romain de Senam won well at Chepstow last Sunday – but runs in a stronger race here (3:00).
In fairness, he will have a fitness edge over his main rivals – and that may see him home in front again – but I wouldn’t bet on it, at even money…
Bristol de Mai is the class act in the field – and if he’s fully tuned, he would be a good bet at 4/1.
Burtons Well could also go close – if he’s ready to do himself justice; whilst Walk in the Park is the value option, at 14/1…

I’m most attracted to Itshard to No in the 3:35 race – but not sufficiently attracted to get involved at a best price of 11/2.
Maybe he’ll drift a little during the morning…

Jurby interests me in the 4:45 – on his debut for Oliver Sherwood.
There’s too much guesswork to be confident – but he’s Leighton Aspells only ride on the day and if he’s backed, it’s likely to be significant.
He’s currently an 8/1 shot.

Sultana Belle has already been hammered in the betting for the 5:45 – which is a shame (though understandable !).
She’s a potentially well handicapped horse, having her first run for a trainer who does well in the UK. Top Irish conditional, Rachael Blackmore, has also come over for the one ride…
She opened at 25/1 last night – but you’ll struggle to beat 8/1 now.
Maybe she’ll drift back out a little, because her profile is appealing…

Ffos Las

There’s a very interesting beginners chase at 3:20 – but it’s a watching race rather than a betting race…
West Approach was the best of the runners over hurdles – and is the one to beat.
However, Brelan Das could literally be anything.
Kimberlite Candy is the third one of interest – though jockey bookings suggest he’s not expected to beat Brelan Das

As with the beginners chase, the Welsh Champion hurdle (4:25), isn’t really a betting race…
It will be interesting to see if The New One can give away lumps of weight to some decent rivals.
If he’s fully tuned, I suspect he can – but we’re guessing on that score and he’s only a 5/2 shot.
Clyne and Ossie the Oscar look the 2 for him to beat – though I couldn’t confidently dismiss any of the runners…

Duc Kauto is the most interesting runner in the closing bumper (5:35).
He’s owned by Alan Potts and is the only ride on the card for Bryan Cooper.
There’s a lot of guesswork – but 7/1 doesn’t seem too bad a price.
Al Dancer is the other one of interest, for course owner Dai Walters.
I’d certainly take those 2 against the favourite, Cereal Killer…

Market Rasen

I’m quite interested in Legend Volante, in the opening race (1:10).
She’s making her debut over hurdles, having not shown much in a couple of bumpers.
However, she’s very well bred; comes from a stable I like (Amy Murphy) and has a hood applied for the first time (she ran too freely in the bumpers).
Clearly, there’s a huge amount of guesswork – but at a general 66/1, she could be worth a tiny EW play (assuming all 8 go to post)…

I have to give a quick mention to Mackenzies Friend in the 2:50 race.
He’s one from last season, who has transferred to the stable of Phil Kirby.
He ran a shocker on his seasonal debut at Kelso and couldn’t be recommended on the back of that run.
However, he steps up in trip and I’m sure the ability is there for him to win off his current mark.
He’s invariable backed – so market support wouldn’t be particularly significant.
Rather than side with him, I’ll probably take a chance on Cry Wolf at 16/1.
The horse should be fit; has potential – and James Evan does well at Market Rasen.

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Thursday October 19th


It wasn’t too surprising to see Minella Rocco struggle at Punchestown – in fact it wasn’t too surprising to see all of the big names struggling (as they have a long season ahead and were therefore unlikely to be cherry ripe today)…

With hindsight, I really should have suggested the race fit, front-runner, Kilcarry Bridge – at very least, as a back to lay in-running option.
As it turned out, he wasn’t quite good enough to hold off Road to Respect (who just keeps on improving) – but he certainly got very close to causing a ‘shock’…

Hartside drifted back out to 11/1 at the off, in the Carlisle opener – and never really featured (he was under pressure quite early in the race).
I would need to see a return to form before I could consider supporting him.

A little like in the Bobby Renton yesterday, the morning market moves were contradicted – to an extent – by the late ones in the 3:15 race.

Having been weak this morning, Vic de Touzaine was well backed close to the off.
He went off 4/1 jt fav – and just got up close home.
Federici on the other hand, drifted back out to 5/1 – and ran as if he needed the outing.
I guess all the market was doing this morning, was adjusting the over-night prices (when Vic de Touzaine had been put in a bit short: and Federici a bit long)…

Report to Base was quite weak in the betting for the 4:55 (out to 6/1 at the off) and was another who ran is if the race was needed.

Shinooki ran a cracker in the 3:25 at Uttoxeter – and briefly looked like he might win, never mind place !
However, he faded between the final 2 flights and eventually only managed fifth  (which was a shame, as I got 66/1 on him EW, pre-race !)

Will o the West also ran really well in the 3:55 race, without quite managing to place.
He was settled out the back, but ran on late to take an encouraging fourth place.
Bennys Mist on the other hand, was very disappointing and was pulled up.

Lunchtime Update


Minella Rocco has been relatively weak in the morning betting – which I don’t find particularly surprising.
The price of Zabana hasn’t changed much (he can still be backed ay 9/1)
I suspect this is a race where the late market moves will tell all…


Hartside appears to have been well backed in the opener (in to 9/1 from 16/1 yesterday evening) – though his market strength isn’t completely backed up on BF.
Maybe he has been tipped up by somone…

Federici has been well backed in the 3:15 – and is now disputing favouritism.
I didn’t expect that, so would be inclined to take notice (particularly if he remains strong in the market, through to the off).
Vic de Touzaine is relatively weak – and again, I would be inclined to be guided by the market with him…

Report to Base has remained quite solid in the market, which considering the strength of support for Beau Bay and Creivehill, suggests he is not unfancied.
This looks a fair race, but I’ll be a bit surprised if the winner comes from outside the 3 mentioned…


All 8 are still intending to run in the 3:25 – and Shinooki can be backed at 8/1 to place.
That strikes me as fair value…

In the 3:55, Bennys King has been backed in to 8/1 (form 10/1): whilst Will o the West has drifted to 14/1 (from 12/1).
That said, I wouldn’t read too much into either move…
The money for Another Venture looks more significant – he’s halved in price from 9/1 this morning…

Evening Preview 

There is more good racing taking place tomorrow – particularly at Punchestown, where the Irish Daily Star chase has attracted a top class field…


There are some potentially good horses running earlier on the card – but the race of the day is at 4:10.
Based on Official ratings, Minella Rocco is very much the one to beat – though I suspect he may be vulnerable, tomorrow…
The 3 Gigginstown runners (Outlander, Sub Lieutenant & Road to Respect) all have chances – of the 3, I like Sub Lieutenant best.
However, at tonight’s prices, Zabana holds most appeal (he’s a 9/1 shot)


Old TVB favourite, Hartside, is handicapped to win the opener.
He likes the course and should be fit following a recent run.
Ryan Winks is replaced in the saddle by Tom Broughton, which is an interesting move (though I’m not quite sure how to read it !).
He’s a 16/1 shot this evening – and will definitely be backed if he’s expected to go close…

There are a few of interest in the 3:15 – with Vic De Touzaine, possibly the most interesting of all.
He ran well in better class races than this, last season – and still has potential.
However, 7/2 is short enough for him on his seasonal debut…
Federici is of more appeal at tonight’s prices (9/1) – as he is reasonably handicapped and can go well fresh.

I was really taken by Report to Base over hurdles last season – and he could be even better over fences (as he’s a PTP winner).
He runs in the 4:50 race and the bookies aren’t taking much of a chance with an opening price of 4/1 – though I doubt he’ll be much bigger, if he does win.


No Hassle Hoff and Secret Door are clearly the two to beat in the 3:10 – but provided all 8 go to post, there is still third place up for grabs…
There’s a few I don’t fancy, which means that Shinooki could offer a bit of place value at 33/1, this evening.

The 3:55 is not an easy race to call, but I’ll be keeping an eye on 2 of the longer priced runners…
Will o the West ran really well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham 12 months ago – an could go well, provided he takes to the fences.
Similarly, Bennys Mist has some good hurdles form (including a win at Uttoxeter) and probably isn’t badly handicapped.
They are 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, this evening…

Tuesday, 17 October 2017

Wednesday October 18th


As it transpired, the morning market moves didn’t provide too good an indicator of the afternoons events at Wetherby (this can happen, it’s the late market moves which tend to be the most significant)

That said Cyrius Moriviere never looked like wining the 2:45 contest.
Instead, Popleys Girl showed massive improvement on her chasing debut, to fend off Cooking Fat.
Finding the winner wouldn’t have been easy, whatever method you had used!

Ballotin defied the morning market weakness to win the feature race at 3:45.
In fairness, he wasn’t quite so weak in the late market, returning an SP of 13/2.
He just managed to hold off Monbeg River, who was sent off a relatively well backed 4/1 shot.

Lough Salt remained suitably strong in the market – and won the 4:20 at 11/2.
He was definitely backable…

Seamor and Keep in Line were both well backed in the finale – but they couldn’t get to Master of Irony.
Both of the placed horses looked as if they would benefit from a step up in trip…

Lunchtime Update

There have been some really significant market moves this morning, in the Wetherby races – and it will be fascinating to see how many of them foretell the outcome of the races…

According to the market, Cyrius Moriviere can’t win the 2:45 !
He was 2/1 last night – but is double that price now, on BF.
The market says the race is between Minella Aris, Cracking Find and Cooking Fat – with Cracking Find probably the best backed (16/1 last night, in to 5/1).

The market is suggesting that Ballotin will need the run in the 3:45: he’s drifted from 4/1 to 8/1.
Monbeg River on the other hand, is very strong (6/1 in to 4/1)…

Lough Salt has been quietly backed in the 4:20 and is now a 7/1 chance.
I do like his profile…

Whilst in the finale: Seamor, Keep in Line and Top Ville Ben have all been backed – with just Utility weak in the market (of the ones I mentioned).

Evening Preview 

They race at Wetherby and Punchestown tomorrow – and it’s the former card which has the best betting opportunities…


Cyrius Moriviere is the one of most interest, in the novice chase at 2:45.
He could be much better than he’s shown so far over fences – but things will need to go right for him  (and that didn’t happen last season).
That said, 2/1 is tight on his seasonal debut – and I’d be more tempted by the 8/1 on offer this evening, about Cooking Fat…

The Bobby Renton chase at 3:45 is the high light of the Wetherby card – and top weight Ballotin is the most interesting runner.
He’s been bought from France and had some good form over there.
The jockey booking (a 7lb claimer rather than Richard Johnson) is a little off putting – but I’m sure the market will advise (he’s 9/2 this evening)…
Monbeg River is the other one of interest – particularly as he can go well fresh.
A general price of 6/1 about him, seems fair…

In the 4:20, Lough Salt is the most interesting one, on his second run (first over hurdles) for Richard Guest.
He can be backed at 9/1 this evening – and that’s tempting.

The final race on the card, is arguably the most interesting of the lot…
Cases can be made for Seamor, Utility, Keep in Line, Top Ville Ben and even Ballyalton.
The market will almost certainly advise on this one – so I’ll be keeping a keen eye on developments (Seamor and Keep in Line are the 2 of most interest, with regard to tomorrows race).


Just a quick mention for the novice chase, at 4:10, where the top class Petit Mouchoir makes his fencing debut.
He’ll probably win – though he does face at least one very talented rival in the shape of Brelade (who also has chasing experience).
It’ll very much be a race to watch, with an eye to the future…

Thursday, 12 October 2017

Friday 13th October


In the 3:10 race, Ballyoptic was sent off at 3/1 (the same price he opened at last night); whilst Winningtry drifted to an SP of 6/1 - and the lack of market strength behind them proved prophetic, as they both ran as if the race was needed.
I would expect improved performances next time…

Similarly, the market was right not to be interested in either Flying Angel (out to 9/2) or Frodon (out to 6/1) in the 3:45, as they too both ran as if the outing was required.
Knockgraffon remained strong in the betting and was sent off 3/1.
However he ran disappointingly (too keen) and was ultimately well beaten.

Twist of Ginge remained strong in the market (SP of 13/2) for the 4:55 and ran a fair race – but could only finish third.
There may be some improvement in him – though he does look quite limited…

Lunchtime Update

Whilst you have to be careful about reading too much into morning price moves (they are often caused by tipsters, who have spotted a bit of value - and pointed it out to numerous others !), there have been a couple of interesting market moves at Newton Abbot, this morning…

Most interesting is Knockgraffon in the 3:45 race.
He was 8/1 early yesterday evening – but is only half that price now.
To balance that, Frodon and Flying Angel (in particular) are very weak, suggesting that both are likely to need the run.
Black Corton is strong in the market and may well prove to be the one that Knockgraffon has to beat…

Twist on Ginge was backed over night, for the 4:55 – which is always an interesting thing (I’m not sure who would be responsible for that !)
He’s remained solid at 7/1, through the morning, suggesting he’s ready to produce a good run.
Nothing else in that field has moved either way, in the morning betting…

There’s not been much market movement in the 3:10 race, either…
Both Ballyoptic and Winningtry remain at the prices they were available at yesterday evening (3/1 and 4/1 respectively).
I wouldn’t have been surprised to see one of them backed down to closer to 2/1 – but the current suggestion is that both may improve for the outing (though the market may take a stronger opinion, closer to the off)

Evening Preview 

There’s a decent card at Newton Abbot tomorrow (for the time of year), which features a couple of quality races (one over hurdles and one over fences):

The hurdle race is off at 3:10 – and Ballyoptic and Winningtry, look very much the pair to focus on (though unfortunately, they head the betting).

The former is a graded animal - and I’m sure he would be capable of defying a mark of 157 – particularly with Zac Bakers 5lb allowance taken into consideration.
In theory, there is a question mark over his fitness - though he won first time last year and NTD usual has his ready.
However, even if he is spot on, he may struggle to concede 26lb to Winningtry.
He looked a horse on the up, last spring and his current mark of 131 could significantly under-estimate his ability.
Ballyoptic is a 3/1 shot this evening – with Winningtry available at 4/1 in places.
The market will doubtless tell the tale – but Winningtry doesn’t strike me as a bad bet at that price (accepting the unknown concernig his fitness).

The next race on the card (3:45) is a good quality intermediate chase.
Based purely on handicap marks, Black Corton is the one to beat - but I don’t like the fact that STD seems to have chosen Frodon ahead of him (leaving 5lb claimer Brony Frost, who is unable to claim, on Black Corton).
Flying Angel is the class act in the field – but he was very inconsistent last season.
The market will likely advise on his chances.
At the prices available this evening, Knockgraffon is the most attractive option. He’s held by Flying Angle on his final run from last season – but I’m not sure that was his form.
He had earlier been very impressive, when winning at Newbury – and if Dan Skelton has got him back to that level, he’ll be tough to beat.
15/2 is the best price currently on offer…

The other race of interest on the card, is the novice handicap chase at 4:55.
It’s an open looking contest, but I quite like the look of Twist of Ginge.
He’s currently the outsider of the field – and will be making his debut over fences.
He’s never won a race - but he’s not had many tries and doesn’t look badly handicapped on his hurdles form.
If he improves for fences – and is fit enough to do himself justice, then he should run well.
10/1 is the price this evening…

Tuesday, 10 October 2017

Wednesday October 11th


It was another day when it paid to be guided by the market…


In the opener, Sonic Wind was sent off at 7/1 (half the price available last night) – however her BSP was over 10/1, suggesting that the main interest in her was from an EW perspective.
She did look like reaching the frame, as she moved into contention approaching the home turn – but her stamina then ran out and ultimately she finished well beaten.
Tracks don’t come much sharper than Ludlow – so if she can’t stay 2 miles round there, you do wonder whether she has a future over hurdles…

The race was won comfortably by The Statesman, who looks a useful recruit to the game…

On Demand was backed in to 2/1 in the 2:25 race – and ran well – but looked as if she’d improve for the outing…

There was no money for Forever Field in the 3:00 – and he ran accordingly (never in the hunt).
Mount Royale was also friendless in the market - but he ran well and only just missed out on third place.

Status Quo drifted like a barge in the 3:30 – eventually going off at 9/1 (15 on BF !).
He ran precisely the race you would have expected – coming there travelling at the third last, before fading.
He could well be one for next time (assuming the market signs are more positive).


Castafiore was a NR in the 3:10 – and Hollywood Road ran so poorly, he may as well not have bothered turning up !

However, Coppperfacejack finally got off the mark over fences in the 4:10 – after 15 tries.
He was backed to do so, as well – going off at just 5/2 (having drifted to 4/1 at lunchtime).
It’s funny the difference having the champion jockey in the saddle, can make..!

Lunchtime Update

There hasn’t been much significant market activity this morning – just a bit of trimming of a few of last nights prices...

In fact, the most notable thing to happen since yesterday evening, is the breaking of the news, that Bryan Cooper will ride the Alan Potts horses in the UK.
That’s a big deal for Cooper, who could really do with a break, after a series of nasty injuries, over the past few years…


Sonic Wind has been well backed in the opener (14/1 in to 10/1) – but that could easily be people trying to avail themselves of some EW 'value'.
The Statesman has been relatively weak – though he’s still at 4/6 shot !!

With a NR in the 2:25, On Demand is now in to 5/2.
That’s a ‘watching’ price…

The market has revealed very little in the 3:00,which I find quite surprising (I’m sure it’ll change by the off time !).
Forever Field can be backed at 9/1 in places – and may be worth a small risk at that price (though if money doesn’t materialise for him, I doubt he will win).
Mont Royal is probably a bit of EW value at 20/1, in a race that could be run to suit (lots of front runners, taking each other on).

Status Quo has been backed in to 5/1 in the 3:30 – but I was half expecting stronger support.
The jury remains out on his chances (though late money would again be significant).


Hollywood Road and Castafiore are both slight drifters in the 3:10 – and the latter in particular may be worth a small play at 15/2.

Finally, Copperfacejack is out to 4/1 in places in the 4:10 – and has a bit of a look of an EW bet to nothing…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow – at Ludlow and Towcester – with a few decent races, particularly at the former venue…


It’s interesting to see Bryan Cooper over for a brace of rides for Colin Tizzard/Alan Potts.
Exxaro (3:00) and Mick Thonic (4:00), both have chances – though my feeling is that if they were really fancied, Robbie Power would have come over to ride them…

On his hurdling debut, The Statesman has been installed a short priced favourite for the opener (2:00).
He is very decent on the flat (rated 93) and has been in good form, recently.
If he is able to show the same level of ability over hurdles, he will take a bit of beating.
That said, I’m more interested in Sonic Wind (at the prices, anyway !).
Sabrina Harty brings just him, over from Ireland – and that strikes me as a significant move.
He’s 14/1 this evening – and would be worth a risk (EW), at that kind of price.

In the 2:25 race, I’m most interested in On Demand.
She was very progressive last season – and I can see that continuing this season.
She’s a front-runner, so will be suited by the track – and I suspect she’ll be ready to do herself justice.
She’s a best price of 7/2, this evening…

The best race of the day, is off at 3:00.
A case can be made for a number of the runners (including Exxaro), with Always on the Run, Bob Tucker and Mont Royale, of definite interest (particularly the latter, given the form of Jonjos stable).
That said, Forever Field is possibly the most interesting of all, for Nicky Henderson.
He makes his handicap debut over fences tomorrow - but isn’t badly weighted, based on his hurdles form.
He’s a general 8/1 shot this evening – and if he’s going to win, I would expect that to be taken…

I wouldn’t expect the 13/2 on Status Quo in the 3:30, to last either...
He makes his handicap debut for Harry Fry tomorrow, having shown very little in 4 runs in novice hurdles last season.
However that’s seen him given an opening mark of 105 – which compares favourably with his flat rating of 72.
The application of a tongue tie and hood, suggest that connections mean business – though the market will likely confirm/deny that !


Harry Skelton is at Towcester to ride a couple for brother Dan, and I would expect both to run big races…

The 3:10 race looks quite open, with Hollywood Road and Castafiore, the 2 of most interest.
The former has crack 7lb claimer, James Bowen, in the saddle: whilst the latter is the only ride on the card for Johnny Burke.
They are priced up at 3/1 and 7/1 respectively, this evening…

Finally, I’ll be intrigued to see whether Richard Johnson can get Copperfacejack home in front in the 4:10.
The horse is massively consistent – though yet to win in 15 tries over fences.
He’s finished second, 7 times tho – and Dickie replaces Charlie Poste and a 10lb claimer in the saddle...
3/1 is the price on offer, this evening…

Saturday, 7 October 2017

Sunday October 8th


Today gave us a number of fine examples, of why you just have to pay attention to the market at this time of year (or you’ll end up very poor !).


Champoleon was a massive drifter in the 2:15 – his BSP was 92 !
Maybe not too surprisingly, he never featured (though the did run on, to take a distant 4th place).
The Birdie Crowe wasn’t quite as weak in the market – but he didn’t feature either…

On form, Some Plan could reasonably have been sent off favourite in the 3:55 – so the fact he actually went off 5/1 outsider of 4, was always likely to be significant.
And sure enough, he ran like a horse who needed the outing: travelling well in the lead, until making a mistake and weakening rapidly.
He’s likely to be a different proposition next time…

In stark contrast to Champoleon and Some Plan, Total Recall was backed as if defeat was out of the question in the Munster National.
An SP of 2/1 in a competitive 16 runner handicapped chase is bordering on ridiculous – but he won doing hand springs…
Alpha Des Obeaux was the only horse backed against him – and he finished second, well clear of the rest of the field.
I suspect the first 2 are very decent – and I could certainly see them making their mark in graded company…


McKenzies Friend went off a well backed 5/1 shot – but started in last place – and stayed there !
The horse is in danger of becoming an enigma.
I’ll be intrigued to see what is changed, the next time he runs (expect a step up in distance – and some head gear).

Just Cameron was very weak in the betting in the 4:20 (SP of 20/1) – and was another who ran accordingly.
I suspect connections will want to see his mark dropped a few pounds before he’s allowed to take a real interest in his races…

Whilst Topham Bay was a little disappointing in the finale…
Ultimately, he finished fifth – but was never in with a chance of winning.
I would expect him to be stepped up further in trip, next time…


Solstice Star ran the solid race I expected in the beginners chase at 3:30.
He finished third behind another solid one, in the shape of Aqua Dude.
I suspect it was a decent contest and Templeross, Deauville Crystal and Allee Bleu are all likely to improve for the experience…

Finally, Audacious Plan was another to be backed as if defeat was out of the question (SP of 7/4).
And he did indeed look like collecting for most of the race (touched 1.03 in-running).
However, he didn’t quite get home and was caught after the last.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go one better, next time…

Lunchtime update


Champoleon and The Birdie Crowe remain the outsiders of the field in the 2:15 – but that’s fine, I wasn’t expecting them to be backed.
They are worth a tiny interest at best prices (25/1 & 50/1)

Childrens List is weak in the betting in the 3:55, which is understandable – but so too is Some Plan…
The latter is now at a very backable 4/1 – though negative market vibes are always worrying, for a seasonal debutante…

Total Recall is solid enough in the market for the Munster National – but On Fiddlers Green is very weak (presumably on account of the soft ground).
The late market moves are likely to be key in this contest…


There has been money for McKenzies Friend in the opener (1:35) – but that’s nothing new !
I certainly wouldn’t chase him down to a silly price (he’s 4/1 in a place, now)

Bohernagore is a NR in the 2:05.

Just Cameron can now be backed at 18/1 in the 4:20 – I did say his price might double !
He’ll probably need the run – though he is likely to make a decent pre-race back to lay in running, at current odds…

Topham Bay has remained solid in the market for the 5:20.
He’s looks a good EW call at 9/1…


Solstice Star has been well backed for the beginners chase at 3:30 (in to 8/1).
That said, I suspect it’s mainly because he is the most likely to run his race (so was decent EW value).

Finally, Audacious Plan is now in to 7/4 in the 4:35 (he actually opened at 5/1, yesterday evening).
I couldn’t back him at that price – but it won’t stop him from winning ! 

Evening Preview 

It may not be the ‘mid-week’, but there’s some really interesting races tomorrow – at 3 different courses – and I can’t resist offering an opinion or two !


I’ve already posted my view on the Munster national (4:25) in the forum – but just to confirm, I think Total Recall, now under the care of Willie Mullins, is very much the one to beat.
If he is beaten, then I think it will most likely be by On Fiddlers Green...
They can be backed at 9/2 and 12/1, this evening – which strikes me as very fair.

The novice hurdle at 2:15, looks a lot more open than the betting implies…
No result would particularly surprise me, so I’d be inclined to go with the 2 outsiders in the field: Champoleon and The Birdie Crowe.
They can be backed at 22/1 and 40/1 respectively – and are both worth a very small risk at those prices..

Over a trip short of his best - and on his seasonal debut, Childrens List looks a suspect favourite in the 3:55 – the question is what to take him on with…
I think Some Plan is probably the best horse in the race – and hopefully his stamina will last out…
He can be backed at 9/4 this evening. 


In the opener (1:35), it’s fascinating to see McKenzies Friend making his debut for Phil Kirby…
I tipped him at Wincanton last season, when he was trained by Oliver Sherwood, and he was backed off the boards.
However, he was very disappointing – and that was also the case on his finally run for Sherwood…
If Kirby can find the key to him, I have little doubt he can win this – and 10/1 seems a price worthy of a small risk…

In the 2:05, Bohernagore, is the one that interests me most…
He did too much, too soon last time – and could benefit from a more patient ride tomorrow and/or a drop back in trip.
He’s 7/1 this evening and that’s a fair price…

The 4:20 race is a cracker – but not really one in which you can have a strong opinion…
Most of the principals are making their seasonal debut, so it’s guess work as to which one will be fittest.
I’m a big fan of Just Cameron – and 8/1 could be a good price. Though if he’s not fully tuned, you’ll probably be able to get double that, close to the off !

The first ‘eye catcher;’ of the season runs in the finale: Topham Bay.
He caught the eye last time, when staying on really well over a trip, 2 furlongs shorter than tomorrow.
Everything looks  in place for him to run a big race tomorrow – but he faces at least a  couple of very dangerous opponents in the shape of Betancourt and Chapel Stile.
In fairness, neither of them is bomb proof - but equally both could be big improvers.
Market moves will be interesting (it's currently 9/4 Betancourt; 6/1 Chapel Stile; 9/1 Topham Bay).


There’s a fascinating novice chase at 3:30 – but all of the principals are making their seasonal debuts, so it’s not an easy one to solve…
It’s probably a race to watch, with an eye to the future,  though Deauville Crystal is quite interesting, in receipt of a lot of weight; Whilst Solstice Star has plenty of chasing experience, and that could give him an edge.
They are 7/1 and 10/1 respectively, this evening.

Audacious Plan has already been backed in the 4:35 – but that’s not too surprising…
He makes his debut for Dr Newland tomorrow – and is handicapped to win.
If he’s ready to do himself justice (and I would guess that he is), then 3/1 is a fair price…