Saturday April 20th

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow - but there is little of interest at either Newton Abbot or Carlisle, so all of the attention is on Haydock...

It’ hosts the final of the Challenger series and the first six races on the card are each worth £50,000. Consequently they are competitive events !

As I mentioned last Saturday you need to tread carefully at this time of the year: the ground will be quick and it's impossible to know what form some of the horses will be in.

Certainly a few of the results at the Cheltenham midweek meeting with difficult to fathom - though unsurprisingly the market managed to work out most of them !

Haydock

1:30

Martila is the one that interests me most in this.
She ran well on her most recent outing when fifth at Kelso.
That was in a better race than tomorrow's and she was only beaten 5 lengths.
Prior to that run, she had won over the same course and rather surprisingly gets to race tomorrow from a mark 1lb lower.
The step up in trip is an unknown - though it may unlock some improvement.
At a price of 10/1 this evening, back against her own sex, she is worth a small interest…

Selection: Martila at 10/1

2:05

With 16 runners this race will take a bit of figuring out !
That said I quite like the look of Casa Tall.
He was last seen competing in the Martin Pipe hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Ultimately he finish well beaten in that contest - however he was still travelling strongly rounding the home turn and just seemed to run out of gas in the final couple of furlongs.
He drops back half a mile in trip tomorrow and has also been dropped 2lb by the handicapper.
Obviously tomorrow's race is not as strong and whilst there are 3 or 4 possible dangers Casa Tall looks like a reasonable bet at 8/1.

Selection: Casa Tall at 8/1

2:40

It confuses things a little that Alan King runs two in the race, but I'm sure that Salmanazar is capable of winning a race of this nature.
Certainly he ran well enough last time when third at Newbury in a similar contest.
He's been dropped a pound in the ratings for that run and there is no reason why he shouldn't run well again tomorrow.
A price of 8/1 in an 8 horse race with no stand-out contender, makes him a ‘value’ bet.

Selection: Salmanazar at 8/1

3:15

The fair bit of guesswork required but I can't resist getting involved with Sunnytahliateigan again…
I tipped him earlier in the season when he was a disappointing 3rd of 6 at Doncaster.
That was on the back of a really promising seasonal debut run at Cheltenham, when he also finished third - but in a much more competitive race.
If he can recapture that form, then he must be capable of going close tomorrow.
In truth, I don't know what's gone wrong the last twice (he’s also disappointed at Warwick) but the fact has been off the course for over 100 days suggests he may have had an issue.
If he's back in the form he showed at Cheltenham, then he could prove tough to beat tomorrow from a mark 4lb lower.
There is a slight question mark over the trip - but hopefully that won’t prove issue.
Of his rivals, then Skidoosh is the one I fear most back on his favoured quick ground.

Selection: Sunnytahliateigan at 10/1

Saturday April 13th

The 2018-19 TVB season may have ended last Saturday - but the NH season itself, will continue until the end of this month.

In fairness, there is some really good NH racing during April: Ayr, today and tomorrow: Cheltenham, next week; Fairyhouse, next weekend - and then Sandown, the weekend after that.

You may well ask, why I don’t continue the TVB season until the end of April ?! - but the reality is, whilst the racing is likely to be very good - figuring out what will happen in the races, just gets harder….

Horses who have been on the go all winter, will start going ‘over the top’ in April; whilst those who have been given a winter break, will begin to hit form.

Knowing whether a particular animal is ready to do itself justice, is therefore extremely hard - yet that is arguably the most important piece of the race solving puzzle…

As a consequence, I’m disinclined to get involved with this part of the season - officially speaking anyway - though ofcourse, I invariably have a view on things…

That’s certainly the case at Ayr tomorrow, where the card kicks off with 5 excellent races - and I have an opinion, on each of them !


Ayr 

1:25

I tipped Saint Leo on his penultimate outing, over tomorrows course and distance.
He looked set to win that race - but took a crashing fall at the fourth last.
Understandably, he was sent over hurdles on his most recent outing - presumably to rebuild his confidence.
He didn’t run badly either, finishing sixth at Kelso. As a result however, the handicapper has reduced his mark by 2lb - and his chase mark by the same amount.
If he had won on his penultimate outing, then he would probably have gone up by 6lb - so arguably, he is 8lb ‘well in’ tomorrow ! (with scope for further improvement).
I accept that’s a positive take on things - but I also think it’s a legitimate argument.
Certainly, I think he has a very good chance tomorrow. My main concern is with quick ground, as he is unproven on it (it may not be an issue - it’s impossible to say).
Of his opponents: then I think Azzuri wants taking on, at the price (currently 3/1).
I can see an argument for Magic Saint - but equally he still has a bit to prove: and whilst Duke of Navan, Forest Bihan and Nuts Well, should all run their race - they are all exposed and have little in hand of their mark.
In the circumstances, Saint Leo is definitely worth a risk, at around 9/1.

Selection: Saint Leo at 9/1

1:55

Drinks Interval is the one that interests me most in this..
She was really impressive, when winning at Chepstow back in October - and whist she’s not repeated that form in 4 subsequent outings, there have been good reasons…
She fell next time out at Market Rasen; and then didn’t run too badly behind Magic of Light at Newbury (on which form, she holds Molly the Dolly); she was then unable to lead at Doncaster; before finding the RSA too hot, on her most recent outing.
She ran with some credit in that race, however - and a 6lb drop in her rating now means that she is quite attractively weighted, on her first run in a handicap chase.
She should relish the quick ground - and may get an uncontested lead.
If she does, then she could prove hard to pass.
In fairness, there are a few others in the race, who look potentially dangerous:
Azzerti and Onefortheroadtom, chief amongst them. However, both are unproven over tomorrows trip, which has to be a concern.
Claud and Goldie will have no issues with the trip - and I could see him running a decent race.
He could easily be 20/1+ in the morning - and would hold some EW appeal at that price.

Selection: Drinks Interval at 9/1

2:25 

The races get harder to solve as the card progresses - and this one looks a real can of worms !
I’d be happy enough to oppose favourite, Nube Negra - it’s finding one to take him on with, that’s the tricky part !
Suffice to say, no result would massively surprise me, but if forced to side with one, I would probably opt for Irish challenger, Pearl of the West.
He won well at Cheltenham in October - and was then given a 5 month break before reappearing on the AW at Dundalk, 2 weeks ago.
He ran well enough that night, to finish second - but I suspect the main purpose of the race was to get him spot on for a return to hurdles.
Conditions should be spot on for him tomorrow - it’s really just a question of whether he is good enough to win a race of this stature…
Plenty of others can be given half chances, at big prices.
Anemoi is probably the outsider who interests me most - and he certainly holds some appeal at 25/1 (maybe EW).
Equus Amadeus, Irish Roe and Brain Power are all capable of getting involved - even if they are also equally capable of not featuring !

Selection: Pearl of the West at 10/1

3:00 

Relatively speaking, this is the least competitive race on the card - but still not an easy one to call.
Ballywood is probably the one to beat - but there is no margin in a price of 9/4, especially with him stepping up in trip.
That said, it holds more appeal than Secret Investor at the same price - particularly as the latter is held on Kempton form, by Castafiore…
She finished a fair way in front of Secret Investor that day: with the pair finishing second and fourth, behind Bags Grove.
On exactly the same terms it’s difficult to see why Secret Investor will turn things around tomorrow - assuming that Castafiore is in the same form.
In truth, that is not guaranteed, as she subsequently ran in the JLT at the Cheltenham festival - and there is a chance that race will have left a mark.
However, if it hasn’t then she is definitely the bet, at around 7/1.

Selection: Castafiore at 7/1

3:35

Impulsive Star provided one of the high-lights of the TVB season, when I tipped him to win the Classic chase at Warwick, in January - and I think he could be capable of winning this, as well.
He followed up that win, by being pulled up in the NH chase at Cheltenham - but I don’t think the rain softened ground suited him that day.
Back on a decent surface - and off a mark just 6lb higher than at Warwick, he’s got a real chance tomorrow.
Big River strikes me as the most interesting of the market leaders, following his eye catching run behind Beware the Bear, at Cheltenham.
He’s 14/1 on BF this evening - and looks worth having on side at that price.
Chances can obviously be given to plenty of others: but at very big prices, both Brian Boranha and Kingswell Theatre, also hold some appeal.

Selection: Impulsive Star at 20/1