There is some decent racing tomorrow - for a Monday - and in truth, it should probably be even better than it is…
Kempton host the feature meeting - with the high-light, a listed mares hurdle.
However, it’s only attracted 4 runners.
Still, that’s 1 more than in the first 2 races on the card !
Fortunately, the fields have stood up a bit better in the 3 handicaps that close the card…
The days other 2 meetings are at Ludlow and Musselbrough.
Relatively small fields are also the order of the day at Ludlow: and whilst field sizes are better at Mussselburgh, the racing is of a lower standard…
This is the best race of the day - and it contains the days best bet !
Deauville Dancer was due to run at Exeter today, but was pulled out on account of the softening ground.
Assuming it stays quick tomorrow at Kempton, then he looks the one to beat.
There is no disputing the fact he is well handicapped, on a mark 12lb lower than when contesting a similar race over the course, in February.
He ran a good race that day, on ground too soft, over a trip too short - and returning from a break.
He also ran well at Sandown in April, when fourth in a better class contest.
That was from a mark 10lb higher than he races from tomorrow…
He made his seasonal debut at Stratford at the beginning of this month - and again ran with promise.
That run should have put him spot on for tomorrow - and he looks a fair bet at the 8/1 available this evening.
Selection: Deauville Dancer at 8/1
A price of 4/1 is a bit tight - but I like the look of Its got Legs, in this…
He ran well last time, when second in a hot (for the grade) novice handicap hurdle at Ascot.
He had no chance with the well handicapped winner, that day - but still finished ahead of 12 fairly reasonable rivals.
He gets to run from the same mark tomorrow - which is a bonus: and steps up in trip - which I’m sure will help.
The only concern I have is with the fitting of a first time visor.
I have no issue with that itself - but I don’t like it when combined with an increase in distance (as it’s likely to make the horse race more freely).
The answer is probably to put in a low in running lay, in case he doesn’t last home…
I suspect he will be available at 5/1, at some point tomorrow - and I’d be prepared to take a risk on him at that price (laying to get my stake back, at around even money).
Selection: Its Got Legs
Again, I wouldn’t want to get sucked into taking too short a price (and 5/2 this evening is probably too short !) - but I’ll find it hard to resist Hugos Horse in this…
He’s making his chasing debut under rules, having run just twice over hurdles.
However, there is every reason to think he’ll improve for the bigger obstacles, as he’s a PTP winner in Ireland.
Paul Nicholls doesn’t train many horses who are only rated 100 - and Andy Stweart doesn’t own many.
I’d be confident connections expect him to ultimately rate a fair bit higher…
The other slight concern, is that that this could be quite a strong race (relatively speaking).
Balkinstown and The Ogle Gogle Man have both got chances: whilst I would be particularly fearful of Baron du Plesis.
He was backed into favouritism last time, on his seasonal debut, in a stronger race than this.
He was also going well enough, when making a race ending mistake at the third last.
He’s clearly considered well handicapped by connections - so it’s unlikely to be easy for Hugos Horse to make a winning chasing debut…
Selection: Hugos Horse - danger Baron de Plesis
This is another tough race to call - considering there are only 6 runners !
I think the 2 to focus on, are Robinshill and Vivaccio.
The former is 3 from 3 at Ludlow - and is potentially well handicapped.
However, he ran deplorably on his seasonal debut - when drifting like a barge…
That makes me wary: but with 3lb off his mark - and 5lb claimer Zac Baker on his back - returning to his favourite venue, I wouldn’t expect to see that situation repeated !
Assuming he is back to form, then from a mark 2lb lower than the one he was successful from, in the corresponding race 12 months ago, he will take a lot of beating.
Vivaccio is a potential danger, on old form.
If he can return to his best, then he is even better handicapped than Robinshill.
However, he was badly out of form last season - so supporting him would require a bit of an act of faith…
Selection: Robinshill at 9/2