Saturday April 13th

The 2018-19 TVB season may have ended last Saturday - but the NH season itself, will continue until the end of this month.

In fairness, there is some really good NH racing during April: Ayr, today and tomorrow: Cheltenham, next week; Fairyhouse, next weekend - and then Sandown, the weekend after that.

You may well ask, why I don’t continue the TVB season until the end of April ?! - but the reality is, whilst the racing is likely to be very good - figuring out what will happen in the races, just gets harder….

Horses who have been on the go all winter, will start going ‘over the top’ in April; whilst those who have been given a winter break, will begin to hit form.

Knowing whether a particular animal is ready to do itself justice, is therefore extremely hard - yet that is arguably the most important piece of the race solving puzzle…

As a consequence, I’m disinclined to get involved with this part of the season - officially speaking anyway - though ofcourse, I invariably have a view on things…

That’s certainly the case at Ayr tomorrow, where the card kicks off with 5 excellent races - and I have an opinion, on each of them !


Ayr 

1:25

I tipped Saint Leo on his penultimate outing, over tomorrows course and distance.
He looked set to win that race - but took a crashing fall at the fourth last.
Understandably, he was sent over hurdles on his most recent outing - presumably to rebuild his confidence.
He didn’t run badly either, finishing sixth at Kelso. As a result however, the handicapper has reduced his mark by 2lb - and his chase mark by the same amount.
If he had won on his penultimate outing, then he would probably have gone up by 6lb - so arguably, he is 8lb ‘well in’ tomorrow ! (with scope for further improvement).
I accept that’s a positive take on things - but I also think it’s a legitimate argument.
Certainly, I think he has a very good chance tomorrow. My main concern is with quick ground, as he is unproven on it (it may not be an issue - it’s impossible to say).
Of his opponents: then I think Azzuri wants taking on, at the price (currently 3/1).
I can see an argument for Magic Saint - but equally he still has a bit to prove: and whilst Duke of Navan, Forest Bihan and Nuts Well, should all run their race - they are all exposed and have little in hand of their mark.
In the circumstances, Saint Leo is definitely worth a risk, at around 9/1.

Selection: Saint Leo at 9/1

1:55

Drinks Interval is the one that interests me most in this..
She was really impressive, when winning at Chepstow back in October - and whist she’s not repeated that form in 4 subsequent outings, there have been good reasons…
She fell next time out at Market Rasen; and then didn’t run too badly behind Magic of Light at Newbury (on which form, she holds Molly the Dolly); she was then unable to lead at Doncaster; before finding the RSA too hot, on her most recent outing.
She ran with some credit in that race, however - and a 6lb drop in her rating now means that she is quite attractively weighted, on her first run in a handicap chase.
She should relish the quick ground - and may get an uncontested lead.
If she does, then she could prove hard to pass.
In fairness, there are a few others in the race, who look potentially dangerous:
Azzerti and Onefortheroadtom, chief amongst them. However, both are unproven over tomorrows trip, which has to be a concern.
Claud and Goldie will have no issues with the trip - and I could see him running a decent race.
He could easily be 20/1+ in the morning - and would hold some EW appeal at that price.

Selection: Drinks Interval at 9/1

2:25 

The races get harder to solve as the card progresses - and this one looks a real can of worms !
I’d be happy enough to oppose favourite, Nube Negra - it’s finding one to take him on with, that’s the tricky part !
Suffice to say, no result would massively surprise me, but if forced to side with one, I would probably opt for Irish challenger, Pearl of the West.
He won well at Cheltenham in October - and was then given a 5 month break before reappearing on the AW at Dundalk, 2 weeks ago.
He ran well enough that night, to finish second - but I suspect the main purpose of the race was to get him spot on for a return to hurdles.
Conditions should be spot on for him tomorrow - it’s really just a question of whether he is good enough to win a race of this stature…
Plenty of others can be given half chances, at big prices.
Anemoi is probably the outsider who interests me most - and he certainly holds some appeal at 25/1 (maybe EW).
Equus Amadeus, Irish Roe and Brain Power are all capable of getting involved - even if they are also equally capable of not featuring !

Selection: Pearl of the West at 10/1

3:00 

Relatively speaking, this is the least competitive race on the card - but still not an easy one to call.
Ballywood is probably the one to beat - but there is no margin in a price of 9/4, especially with him stepping up in trip.
That said, it holds more appeal than Secret Investor at the same price - particularly as the latter is held on Kempton form, by Castafiore…
She finished a fair way in front of Secret Investor that day: with the pair finishing second and fourth, behind Bags Grove.
On exactly the same terms it’s difficult to see why Secret Investor will turn things around tomorrow - assuming that Castafiore is in the same form.
In truth, that is not guaranteed, as she subsequently ran in the JLT at the Cheltenham festival - and there is a chance that race will have left a mark.
However, if it hasn’t then she is definitely the bet, at around 7/1.

Selection: Castafiore at 7/1

3:35

Impulsive Star provided one of the high-lights of the TVB season, when I tipped him to win the Classic chase at Warwick, in January - and I think he could be capable of winning this, as well.
He followed up that win, by being pulled up in the NH chase at Cheltenham - but I don’t think the rain softened ground suited him that day.
Back on a decent surface - and off a mark just 6lb higher than at Warwick, he’s got a real chance tomorrow.
Big River strikes me as the most interesting of the market leaders, following his eye catching run behind Beware the Bear, at Cheltenham.
He’s 14/1 on BF this evening - and looks worth having on side at that price.
Chances can obviously be given to plenty of others: but at very big prices, both Brian Boranha and Kingswell Theatre, also hold some appeal.

Selection: Impulsive Star at 20/1