Friday March 9th

Lunchtime Update

Crossed my Mind is a NR in the handicap hurdle at Leopardstown (2:25).

I always get a little suspicious when a JP owned favourite is taken out – and he has other runners in the race !

Neither Destin DAjonc or Gran Geste has been backed yet (both are available at 10/1) – but I’ll be interested to see if there is money for them, closer to the off..

Uncle Danny can still be backed at 9/1 in the handicap chase at 3:30, which surprises me a little…

General Principal has drifted out to 6/1 – but I slightly prefer the chances of Uncle Danny, regardless of the price.

Maybe both will struggle to cope with Blast of Koeman and Drumconnor Lad – but Uncle Danny may be worth a small risk, just in case…

Westend Story can now be backed at even money at Sandown, which was the target price.

However, I’m a little suspicious of the drift – considering his absence…

If he gets backed, close to the off, I think he will win – but he’s too short to take much of a risk.

Lip Service has been very well backed in the 4:45 race, which is possibly significant.

He was 4/1 last night – but you can’t beat 5/2 now.

Over at Leicester, Icing on the Cake has been supported into favouritism for the 2:40 race.
With doubts over his ability to handle the ground, I am happy to just watch at a price of 5/2.

Finally, the absence of early favourite Finnegans Garden, has helped see Lickpenny Larry promoted to the head of the market for the 3:50 race.

He was 6/1 last night – and even with a hefty R4, he should be a fair bit bigger than his current price of 5/2.

The suggestion is that he is well fancied…

If he jumps round and gets up the hill, I think he’ll win…

I was hoping to get a bigger price on Lickpenny Larry – but such is life.

I still think he is a worthy Lunchtime Nap !

Lunchtime Nap: Lickpenny Larry (Fair Price 5/2)

Win, Lose or draw, there will be no review later.

From this point on, I’ll be switching my attention to tomorrows cards – and then on to Cheltenham !

It will therefore be a fair few days before I next post on the blog.

Best of luck to you all, for the festival – I’m sure it will be a great few days, it always is !!

TVB.

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Sandown, Leicester and Ayr in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

The best racing on the day, is probably at Leopardstown, where the meeting originally scheduled for Sunday/Monday will take place.

Former Champion hurdler, Jezki, competes in the opening race on the card – but there are better betting opportunities in some of the later races…

Crossed my Mind is the one of most interest in the handicap hurdle at 2:25.

His 2 most recent runs have been in the UK – and he’s been sent off favourite on each occasions (and both times, in decent Saturday races).

Tomorrows race is almost certainly a drop in class – and with Barry Geraghty in the saddle, he is the one to beat.

That said, it’s a trappy enough looking race – and there is little margin in an early price of 3/1…

The other race of interest on the card, from a betting perspective, is the handicap chase at 3:30.

This doesn’t look as competitive – and Uncle Danny looks over priced at 9/1.

I actually tipped him on his penultimate run at Limerick, but he disappointed.

However, he bounced back to form on his most recent outing, when third in a hot handicap at the Dublin Racing festival.

He races off the same mark tomorrow – and should really have the beating of General Principal, who finished a length behind him and is no better off at the weights.

It’s therefore a little odd that General Principal is a best price of 4/1…

I would expect the prices to right themselves tomorrow – and if they don’t, I’ll be very suspicious !!

Drumconnor Lad, Blast of Koeman and Jetstream Jack are the 3 others of interest – but with a straight bat, Uncle Danny is definitely the bet in the race…

The racing isn’t as competitive at Sandown – but there are a couple of horses who I think should win (and therefore could be Lunchtime Nap material !)

Westend Story will probably end up too short in the 3:05 - but he’d be of interest at around even money…

He was an impressive winner of a fair race at Wetherby, back in January – and should be able to defy a 10lb rise, so long as there is no sinister reason for his absence since then ! (55 days).

In the final race on the card (4:45), Lip Service is the one who catches the eye on his second run for Fergal O’Brien.

He ran well on his stable debut in a strong race at Cheltenham in November – and has a big chance on that form.

His absence since then is slightly concerning – and it’s interesting to see that he’s had a wind op.

It’s not an easy race to assess with confidence – but even if he only matches his effort last time, he sets a decent standard.

If he can improve on that run, then he will be difficult to beat…

There are also a couple of very interesting races at Leicester.

The first of them is off at 2:40 – and the dilemma is whether to side with Granville Island/Newberry New, both of whom won last time and are stepping up in class: or Icing on the Cake, who was well beaten last time, but is dropped significantly in grade.

My inclination is to side with the latter – though at 4/1 on ground he may struggle with, his case isn’t as compelling as I would like…

The final race of interest is the 3:50 – and it contains probably the most interesting runner of the day !

Lickpenny Larry was a big eye catcher on his most recent outing at Towcester – so much so, I claimed that ‘he will win next time’ ! Though I did qualify it by adding ‘granted slightly less of a stamina test’.

And that could be the issue...

Whilst the hill at Leicester isn’t quite as severe as the hill at Towcester, it’s not far off – and the ground at Leicester tomorrow is likely to be as heavy as it was at Towcester.

Assuming he jumps as well as he did last time, I can see him swinging into the straight, looking sure to hose up.

The question will then be whether he can get home…

I don’t honestly know the answer on that one – but in-running lays will ease my pain if he doesn’t !

All in all then, quite an interesting days racing !