Thursday 15th March - Cheltenham Day 3

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival.

There has been significant overnight rain – and on ground which was already ‘soft’, we are again likely to be looking at ‘heavy’, by the start of the first race.

On the plus side, the action switches to the New course this afternoon – so the horses will be running on previously unused ground.

I wouldn’t be optimistic about conditions for tomorrow though !

So far, things haven’t gone well from a tipping perspective – though in my defence, there haven’t been that many races on the first 2 days, which I felt were set up for tipping in.

Things are a little better today – and they look even better again tomorrow.

Remember, it’s a meeting of 2 halves 😉

In terms of todays tips, then I’ve ended up with 7 across 5 races.

I’ve changed tactics slightly, with a couple EW – and even one at a single figure price !

Rest assured, it’s not an attempt on my behalf, to force anything (as is illustrated by my stance in the final race on the card) - it’s more a case of showing a bit of flexibility to respond to the opportunities on offer.

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble !

Here’s the rational for the tips – plus my other thoughts on the day…

Cheltenham

1:30 This is a pretty open looking race, in which a case can be made for most of the runners.

The market is headed by Invitation Only – and whilst he definitely has a chance, he looks too short in the betting at 3/1.

Similarly, Terrefort has a chance, but there isn’t much appeal in his price, which is just a point bigger.

Benetar could be of interest at around 8/1 – though I wonder if he’s quite got the class to win a race of this stature: and whilst Finians Oscar looked all class last year, he’s been a massive disappointment this season and now has a lot to prove.
On better ground, Modus would definitely have been of interest – but he may not appreciate the very soft conditions.

That’s certainly not the case with Shattered Love – as she relishes heavy ground.

She’s won 4 of her 5 chasing starts this season, culminating in a last time out win in a Grade 1 chase at Leopardstown, over Christmas.

She took advantage of the falls of Monalee and Rathvinden that day, but still did well to hold off Jury Duty. 

She is an improving mare, who likes to race prominently and is generally a sound jumper.

She also gets a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals (bar the 5 year old Terrefort) – and in a tight race, that could prove crucial.

I would certainly expect her to run a big race – the question is whether she will be good enough to win.

That’s hard to say with confidence – but I do think that she represents a bit of value at around 9/1.

It’s also possible to argue that Snow Falcon and Kemboy represent a bit of value – as both have a chance.

However, if this does turn into a war (which is quite possible), then I want be with Shattered Love, as her stamina and sound jumping could prove decisive.

2:10 This is not a race which I have a strong view on.

My feeling is that it will probably be won by one of the Irish horses that look to have been layed out for it – but I don’t know which one…

Glenloe, Sort it Out, Delta Work and A Great View all have the right kind of profile – but they have also been well found in the betting.

Of the English challengers, then Louis’ Vac Pouch and Forza Milan are the 2 who appear to have been specifically targeted at the race – but again, the market is wise to them.

Beyond that, it looks a bit of a lottery…

Connetable and Dadsintrouble are a couple who are moderately interesting, at big prices: whilst, as I mentioned on the forum, Wait for Me should make a decent pre-race back to lay in-running (as he travels strongly).

In truth, the best thing about the race, is probably a quote I read from Evan Williams, concerning his runner, Prime Venture. He said:

The horse went up 12lb for winning a bad race at Ffos Las and, as a relatively exposed handicapper, there was no way he'd improved by that much. There's nowhere else to go though, so he's at Cheltenham for a day out.’

Well, at least that’s one that can be crossed off the list !!

All in all, probably a race best watched…

2:50 There is a numerically disappointing turn out for this – but I think there’s a good bet in it…

Only 6 will go to post – and 3 of them are likely to have a real issue with the ground.

Cloudy Dream, Sub Lieutenant and Balco des Flos would all prefer much better ground than they are going to get.

At Championship level, then generally speaking a horse needs most things in its favour, if it is going to win.

Consequently, that leaves 3 to focus on: Un de Sceaux, Cue Card and Frodon.

Clearly Un de Sceaux is the one to beat.

He will have no issue with the ground and he won the corresponding race 12 months ago. However, it was noticeable that he only just made it up the hill that day – and the ground was a fair bit quicker than it will be today.

He probably only just has sufficient stamina to last the trip – and with Ruby unable to ride him – Paul Townend will need to get things spot on.

Cue Card is another past winner of this race – and he certainly won’t lack for stamina, no matter how heavy the going !

However, he’s now 12 – and had a very hard race at Ascot just over 3 weeks ago.

He may have recovered – but I’m not sure I would want to bet on it.

Consequently, Frodon is the one to be interested in…

He’s got a few pounds to find with the 2 principals on official ratings - but is only 6 and is still improving.

He will also relish the soft ground – and whilst he finished well behind Cue Card at Ascot last time, I suspect he’s a much better horse at Cheltenham.

Certainly, he was unbelievably good, when winning at the course in January.

He destroyed Shantou Flyer and Coo Star Sivola that day – and those 2 fought out the finish to the Ultima on Tuesday.

I’ve little doubt that Frodon was flattered by that run, because he barely put a foot wrong - however, it did show what he is capable of, if everything drops right.

And I think there’s a distinct possibility that everything will drop right for him today – and if it does, then he has to go very close.

Against 2 such talented opponents, I think it makes sense to back him EW – but with reasons why they both could under-perform, a victory for Frodon is certainly not out of the question.

3:30 TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller, runs in this and will be attempting to avenge his agonising defeat of 12 months ago (right up there in the top 5 most painful defeats incurred by TVB tips – and it’s quite a list, I can tell you !).

At the start of the season, I felt he had a real chance of going one better – and I tipped him ante-post.

However, he’s looked a little battle weary in a few of his races this season – and the very soft ground is likely to be the final nail.
I suspect his chance for success, passed 12 months ago…

In truth, this is a much hotter renewal than last years.

I’m not sure quite what has happened – but a host of serious challengers have sprung up during the season – and this has turned into a really competitive race.

Sam Spinner heads the market – and on his favoured heavy ground, he looks sure to run well.

However, whether he’ll be able to grind some very talented horses into submission, is debatable.

He’s also not likely to be helped by the presence of Donnas Diamond.

He likes to race prominently and should ensure that Sam Spinner doesn’t get a freebie on the front end.

I have a feeling that the two of them will just set things up for a closer – the question is which one…

There are plenty of talented horses in the race, but I suspect the most talented, is Yanworth.

He was actually sent off 2/1 favourite for last years Champion hurdle – but he didn’t have the pace to get involved, over the minimum trip.

He was stepped up to 3 miles for his next run at Aintree – and a battling victory over Supersundae, showed that he did have the stamina.

He is also able to cope with very heavy ground, as his massively impressive win on Trials day, 2 years ago showed…

I expect Barry Geraghty to give him a quiet waiting ride – and then look to pounce coming to the last.

The race isn’t going to be pretty – but Yanworth has guts as well as class – and hopefully they will see him home in front.

As for the others, then Supersundaes chances may have been undone by the rain; whilst you have to feel that Unowhatimenaharry, like Lil Rockerfeller, had his best chance 12 months ago.

Bacardys has possibilities – if he gets home: as does The New One.

L’Ami Serge could certainly get placed – though it’s harder to see him winning; and I would say the same about Colins Sister, who can be backed at huge odds.

In fact I did consider tipping her, as her running style could see her picking off rivals close home – as she will absolutely relish conditions.

I’m just not sure that she’s quite classy enough, in such a strong contest.

If you can get 50/1 tho – and 4 places, then she is definitely worth a speculative few quid.

4:10 I was disappointed to see that Vieux Morvan wasn’t declared for this race.

I felt he would have had a really good chance – but clearly, his connections weren’t so convinced…

I guess I could have switched to Last Goodbye in his absence – as he comfortably beat Vieux Morvan when the pair met at Leopardstown last month.

However, Last Goodbye was hit hard by the handicapper for that win – and his jumping can be a little suspect.

In short, I don’t fancy his chances as much as I did those of Vieux Morvan.

I do fancy the chances of Kings Odyssey though – particularly at the prices available early yesterday !

In truth, the case for him is quite straightforward, so I don’t understand why he was ever trading at 33/1.

He was hugely impressive winner over todays course and distance, 2 years ago – and off the same mark he runs from today.

That was also in very heavy ground – and he ploughed through it in a manner which suggested he was a horse going places.

That hasn’t really happened yet – but he’s hinted on more than one occasion that the ability remains.

In fact, he ran really well on his most recent outing, when third over today courses and distance – to Frodon !

He split Shantou Flyer and Coo Star Sivola in that race – and as I said earlier, that form was franked in no uncertain terms on Tuesday.

I can’t help but feel that Kings Odyssey has a race like this in him – and if that’s the case, then under perfect conditions, today is likely to be the day.

Ofcourse with 24 runners, you need a bit of luck – and there is always the possibility that you might bump into a horse who is thrown in.

The most likely candidates for that are Kings Socks, The Storyteller and Movewiththetimes.

Certainly it would be no surprise if one of them proved to be well ahead of its mark.

I therefore think it is worth backing Kings Odyssey EW – and there is (was !) sufficient juice in the price, to do just that.

Aside from those mentioned, there is nothing else in the race that really grabs me.

I find it interesting that connections have chosen to drop Go Conquer in trip – though I’m not completely sure that it’s a good move.

Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see Willie Boy run well: or indeed, Mercian Prince – but in terms of tips, there’s only one horse that I’m interested in – and that’s Kings Odyssey !

4:50 This is the least attractive betting race of the day, by some margin…

At the start of the week, Willie Mullins said that Laurina was his best chance of a winner.

So far, he’s registered 5 success: it’s highly likely that she will make it 6 (or maybe 7 or 8 – depending on how the earlier races have gone !).

She’s been deeply impressive on her 2 runs in Ireland – both on heavy ground. Her form also has substance to it, so she’s going to take a lot of beating…

Marias Benefit is the clear second best in the race.

She’s been a revelation this season, winning 5 on the bounce.

Her penultimate run in the soft at Taunton, suggests she will handle todays conditions – though her head strong style – and Cheltenham hill, mean that she is likely to be vulnerable, after the last.

I’ve little doubt that she’ll run her race – but she’s just likely to provide a target for Luarina to aim at…

Cap Soleil is third in the betting – and most likely to finish third in the race.

Her form isn’t outstanding – but she’s put in a few performances which suggest she’s got real talent – and she is highly rated by her connections.

The only other one worthy of a mention, is Angels Antics.

Her jumping can be poor – and she may find everything happening too quickly (particularly if Marias Benefit applies a lot of pressure).

However, she will relish the ground – and if she’s still in contention coming down the hill, nothing will come up it better !

She’s certainly one to consider in-running – provided she’s still within hailing distance at half way !!

5:30 A little bit like the 2 handicaps on the opening day, I have a something of a dilemma in this race…

I think that Mall Dini and Squouateur are the most likely winners – but it’s 11/2 the pair, and in a 22 runner handicap, that’s too short…

More than that, neither one really has the form to warrant being the price they are - it’s all about what they could be.

It was a similar situation with both horses 12 months ago – and neither delivered then.

Hopefully it will be the same story this afternoon !

With them out of the race (!), it’s a much easier to solve..!

Cleary an ability to cope with desperate conditions is going to be a pre-requisite - and Band of Blood will have no issue in that respect.

The ground couldn’t have been worse when he won on his penultimate run at Exeter – and the fact that he was able to follow up 10 days later at Doncaster on much quicker ground, showed that he was over the issued which has caused him to have 2 years off the track.

Ofcourse he has risen in the handicap for those 2 wins – but he’s still only rated 133, and I’m sure he’s a better horse than that.

He’s got a very good jockey in James King – and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close.

The other one I want on side, is Wild West Wind.

He was a good winner on heavy ground at Chepstow on his seasonal debut, before falling next time in the Welsh National.

On his most recent run, he cantered in to the lead, having jumped the third last at Haydock - but then stopped to nothing.

In a way, that was a little disconcerting – but that race was over an extra half mile – and however bad conditions are today, they won’t be as bad as they were at Haydock !

He certainly got home fine, on his seasonal debut - and hopefully that will be the case again today.

Tom Georges horses have been running really well all week – and I expect Wild West Wind to do the same.

Of the others, then The Young Master is handicapped to win – but a big revival would be required and the ground has gone against him.

Whilst Final Nudge is the other one I considered tipping. However I was a little disappointed with his effort last time and it’s unusual for horses to bounce back from poor runs, mid season.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:30 Shattered Love 1pt win 9/1

Chel 2:50 Frodon 0.5pt EW 10/1

Chel 3:30 Lil Rockerfeller 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)

Chel 3:30 Yanworth 1pt win 6/1

Chel 4:10 Kings Odyssey 0.5pt EW 33/1

Chel 5:30 Band of Blood 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)

Chel 5:30 Wild West Wind 0.5pt win 20/1