Wednesday 14th March - Cheltenham Day 2

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival.

After yesterday, we’ve now got a better idea of how the ground is riding.
It’s soft, for sure – though not as bad as was feared.

It looked to me like proper winter ground (the type you normally get in December)…

The second day of the festival is invariably a relatively quiet one, from a betting perspective.

The final 3 races on the card, don’t really lend themselves to big betting, as there is minimal form to work with.

This year, the opening Ballymore hurdle and the feature Champion chase, are also races with poor betting shapes – which leaves just the RSA chase and the Coral Cup.

I’ve got a tip in both of those, plus a couple of speculative ones: in the cross country chase and the bumper, for good measure – but that’s it.

I did toy with one or two others - but I would be guessing and I think that’s best saved for the Mentions !

Therefore, here are my thoughts on the days races – including the rationale behind the tips…

Cheltenham

1:30 Today is the day of reckoning for Samcro.

The most hyped horse of the season, he went some way to justifying his reputation when winning the Grade 1 Deloitte hurdle last time.

If he manages to come home in front again this afternoon, then I suspect few doubters will remain.

That’s because, despite his reputation, he faces some really strong opponents.

I was massively impressed by Next Destination, when he won on his hurdling debut as Naas back in November – and whilst he’s not been quite as impressive in his 2 subsequent races, he still won them both (and they were grade 2 and grade 1 contests).
Willie Mullins took yesterday by storm – and I’m sure that Next Destination will be primed to the minute.

With Ruby in the saddle, he appears to be the number 1 hope for Mullins – though he has 3 other runners, in the shape of Duc de Genevieres, Scarpeta and Brahama Bull who have all got decent form – and plenty of potential.

Willie seems pretty intend on making sure that Samcro is the real deal, that’s for sure !

Away from the Mullins battalion, then Black Op heads up the English defence.

He ran a huge race in defeat last time, not quite getting home in very heavy ground. Ridden with a little more retrain – and on a slightly better surface, I’d expect him to run to the line today.

Visions des Flos is the other English challenger of real interest, as he looked much improved when hacking up at Exeter last time.

There are also a couple of rank outsiders, in the shape of Coolanly and Gowiththeflow, who I could see running well.
There is certainly some serious opposition for Samcro to overcome !

All this said, I expect him to be up to the task.
Gordon Elliott is not in the habit of talking his horses up – and Samcros last time out destruction of Paloma Blue looks all the better after that ones fine performance yesterday.

I’m also reasonably confident that Next Destination will prove to be his biggest rival – as I can see one or two of Willies runners being sacrificed to ensure there is a really strong pace.

It will be a fascinating watch, but I hope – and expect - that we will see the dawning of a new superstar…

2:10 On a day when there are limited betting opportunities this is definitely the race with greatest appeal, from a betting perspective.

It’s undoubtedly competitive – but there’s enough to build a case for a few of the runners.

The one I’ve chosen to side with, is Dounikos.

I tipped him on his most recent run, when he was fourth in the Flogas chase at the Dublin racing festival.
That race was won by Monaleee, with A Boom Photo in second – but I think Dounikos can reverse the form this afternoon.

For a start, he was arguably unlucky not to win that day (another 25/1 near miss !).

He was squeezed up on the run in, when delivering his challenge – and that cost him both ground and momentum.

Furthermore, todays race is over at additional half mile – and whilst that may suit Monalee and Al Boom Photo, I think it will suit Dounikos more.

Not that he’s only got Monalee and Al Boom Photo to worry about…

Presenting Percy is a worthy favourite for the race – and looks the one to beat.

He’s a talented, versatile horse – and Dounikos will definitely have his work cut out, if he’s to get the better of him.

I’m less convinced by the claims of the English challengers.

Black Corton has had an amazing season – but he’s been on the go for ages and won’t relish the soft ground. The form of his defeat of Ms Parfois, got boosted yesterday: but I’m still happy enough opposing him.

I’m also happy enough opposing both Elegant Escape and Ballyoptic.

Both are useful horses – but Elegant Escape lacks a bit of class – and Ballyoptic’s jumping is liable to let him down.

In short, whilst I respect his rivals – particularly Presenting Percy – I think Dounikos is capable of winning.

He’s an improving horse, who has all the right attributes to take this particular contest.

Let’s hope that he’s the second leg of an early Gigginstown/Elliott/Kennedy double !

2:50 This is the other main betting race on the day – but it’s a lot harder to work out than the RSA chase…

That’s mainly because there are 26 runners – and quite a few of them can be given a chance !

Regular readers will not be surprised to read that I always planned to be with Le Breiul in this.

He’s a horse that I’ve had on my radar, since he beat Benetar at Newbury 12 months ago, and nothing he’s done since then, has put me off.

Admittedly, he’s only run 3 times in the intervening period – but he was a big eye catcher on the second of them (his seasonal debut, back in November): and whilst he was beaten in a 4 horse race on his most recent run, he was facing a near impossible task, trying to give Black Ivory 19lb in desperate ground.

I suspect it’s significant that he’s not been seen since then.

Ben Pauling is a very good target trainer - and he knows that he’s got a well handicapped horse.
The strength of Le Breuil in the betting confirms that – as his bare form doesn’t really justify his price.

Hopefully his inexperience won’t betray him in such a big field, because I think he will go very close if it doesn’t…

I spent a fair bit of time trying to find a second tip in the race – but couldn’t come up with anything that I felt completely comfortable with…

It’s possible that Max Dynamite could take the race apart – if he is able to translate his flat form to the hurdles. However, this is a very different challenge to running in the Melbourne cup – and I can’t really warm to him.
Similarly, whilst William Henry was impressive when winning a very strong race last time, his subsequent rise in the handicap will make it hard for him to follow up.

I considered Mount Mews, on his return from fences - but he wasn’t able to win over hurdles earlier in the season; whilst Topofthegame faces a similar challenge to that faced by William Henry.
He’s probably the market leader which I like best – but I prefer Le Breuil…

There are a few at bigger prices which I was drawn to – chief amongst them, Barra and As you Were.

I like the connections of both – and they have plenty of potential for improvement. However, there is also just a bit too much guesswork involved for me to feel comfortable tipping either one.

In truth, it’s a race where it would be difficult to dismiss many of the runners with confidence – so that makes me inclined to keep involvement to a minimum.

I do want to take a risk on Le Breiul though – there’s no doubt about that !

3:30 Altior versus Douvan should really be one of the races of the decade – but that assumes both horses arrive in top form – which is far from guaranteed to be the case…

Altior has had an interrupted season – during which he has run just once, at Newbury last month. He was also found to be lame on Monday (just 2 days ago !).

I’m no expert on such matters, but apparently it was relatively trivial lameness.
All the same, it’s not what you want when you are backing an even money shot !

Douvan hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since disappointing in this race 12 months ago.

He was subsequently found to have a hair line fracture – and whilst that will have long since healed, it doesn’t explain why he’s not been out since.

It’s impossible to know what to expect from him – and difficult to know what to expect from Altior.

As a consequence, this just can’t be a betting race…

I guess, if you were desperate, you could maybe argue a case for Min by default - even though he is the inferior of the other two, when they are at their peaks.

You could also maybe argue an each way case for Politologue – but there would be far too much guesswork and supposition for me to want to do that.

One thing that does strike me about the race, is that there should be plenty of pace.

Special Tiara will want to lead – but Ar Mad might not let him !

I think that will suit Politologue (who likes to race prominently – but wouldn’t choose to front run).

The ground is also likely to be a factor, with soft not suiting either Special Tiara or Gods Own.

However, non of the above really helps progresses things !

This is likely to simply come down to which one of Altior and Douvan is in the best shape.

If they both are, then it should be some race – though I fear that probably won’t be the case…

4:10 All eyes will be on Cause of Causes in this, as he bids to win at a fourth consecutive Cheltenham festival.

And there is a strong possibility that he’ll do just that – he’s certainly a worthy favourite.

However, whether there is any margin in a quote of 3/1, in such a race – and up against a number of serious rivals, is a different matter…

Certainly a strong case can be made for The Last Samurai, based on his form over conventional fences – and the National fences: whilst Tiger Roll has to be respected as a dual festival winner, who has clearly been targeted at this race.

Jossies Orders and Auvegant are two others who have got a chance – though as they are also owned by JP McManus, the suspicion is that they are not expected to beat Cause of Causes.

However, rather than side with any of the above, I’m going to take a chance on Hurricane Darwin.

He’s only run over a Banks course once – at Punchestown last month, behind Auvergnat – but it was a very eye catching effort.

Despite being strong in the market (he went off at just 4/1), he was settled a very distant last, by Denis O’Regan.

And he pretty much stayed there until making ground, hand over fist, up the run in…

In fairness, he was still beaten 15 lengths at the line – but I’m sure that the tactics employed, gave away at least that amount of ground.

It will be fascinating to see how he’s ridden today.
My feeling at the time, was that his last run was merely a prep for today – getting him familiar with a new discipline.

I therefore expect him to show much improved form.

However, even if that is the case, there is still a question over whether he will have sufficient ability to trouble the likes of Cause of Causes and The last Samurai.

He’s rated over 20lb inferior to them over conventional fences – and that’s quite a gap to close.

That said, he’s only 8 – and is still improving – so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
Certainly at 33/1, I think he’s worth a small play to find out…

4:50 I spent quite a lot of timing looking at this race – and delving into the form of a number of the runners – but I came to the conclusion it is unfathomable !

Simply, you can’t get a proper handle on the form that is in the book – and virtually all of the runners have massive scope for improvement.

The one I was most tempted by, was Espirit de Samoza.

He was an official eye catcher on his debut at Sandown, before winning (untipped !) at Huntingdon next time.

On the back of that run, he was considered for the Triumph hurdle, but a subsequent defeat at Taunton put pay to that idea…

I do wonder if the Taunton defeat was all part of a grand plan, to get him a handicap mark which would enable him to run in this race – but maybe I’m over thinking things !

And that definitely is a danger in this race.

So many of the runners have single pieces of form which would give them a strong chance - if it could be taken literally.

Act of Valour has run We Have a dream close; Look my Way got within hailing distance of Apples Shakira (and got her off the bridle); Nube Negra got even closer to her (though she did win in a hack canter).

After the race, it will doubtless be very easy to point to the key piece of form – but pre-race, it’s hard to see the wood for the trees…

Consequently, whilst I’ve had a small bet on Esprit de Samoza, I think it makes sense to make it a watching race, officially speaking.

5:30 The bumper is another race which is often viewed as a lottery, but I’m not sure that’s the case.

True, there are 24 runners – and very little form to work with – but I suspect that the field can be narrowed down to 6 or 7…

Unfortunately (though unsurprisingly !), those 6 or 7 are mainly at the head of the market – but I still think it’s a race getting involved with.

As is invariably the case, the start point for the race, is the Willie Mullins runners.

He fields 5 this year – with this main hope looking to be Blackbow.

He won the bumper at the Dublin racing festival, at the beginning of February.
That is probably the best bumper run in Ireland this year (certainly in terms of figure recorded) – and I think it’s the race to focus on.

Balckbow beat Rhinestone by just over a length in that race – but I expect the form to be reversed this afternoon.

It’s not something I ever expected by be typing, but Patrick Mullis out rode Derek O’Connor in that race.
He got first run of Blackbow; kicking off the home turn and opening up a 3 length gap, which O’Connor and Rhinestone were unable to bridge.

My feeling at the time, was that Rhinestone was the better horse – and I’m optimistic that he’ll prove that this afternoon.

Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle today – and it’s very interesting that he’s siding with Rhinestone ahead of Didtheyleaveuoutto.

That one was massively impressive when winning a very strong bumper at Ascot last time – but Geraghty seems to have few doubts in his mind that Rhinestone is the better animal (though in fairness, the soft ground is not expected to suit Didtheyleaveuoutto).
As a consequence, the strongest home challenge is likely to come from Acey Milan.

He’s an impossible horse to knock – having dealt with every challenge put in front of him, so far.

In my mind, it comes down to whether the English or Irish bumper form is strongest – and I reckon that this year, an Irish horse will come home in front – and I think that horse will be Rhinestone !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 2:10 Dounikos 1pt win 10/1

Chel 2:50 Le Breuil 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)

Chel 4:10 Hurricane Darwin 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)

Chel 5:30 Rhinestone 1pt win 8/1

Mentions

Chel 1:30 Samcro (P )

Chel 3:30 Altior (C )

Chel 4:50 Esprit de Samoza (O )