Wednesday 7 November 2018

Thursday November 8th

The word ‘soft’ appears in the going description at Newbury tomorrow - and what a difference it’s made to the fields !

All 7 races on the card, have attracted plenty of runners - and a decent quality.
It’s quite different from what’s been happening at many of the recent meetings - and hopefully signals a change, which will see the new season move up a gear…

In addition to Newbury, there are also NH meetings at Market Rasen, Sedgefield and Thurles.
And whilst non of the other 3 can match Newbury for quality, they all host reasonable racing - with the mares chase at Market Rasen, a particular high-light.


Newbury

12:40

New Quay was a massively impressive winner at Ascot on Saturday, and it’s no surprise to see him installed an odds on favourite for this, under a 7lb penalty.
The handicapper saw fit to raise him 17lb for that win, so he is effectively 10lb well in tomorrow…
In the circumstances, Dan Skelton had little option other than to run him - and that  concerns me.
The horse is dropping back in trip - and it’s only 5 days since his Ascot win.
He appeared to win with any amount in hand - but we won’t know how much the race took out of him, until it is too late…
In the circumstances, I couldn’t entertain backing him - the trouble is, nothing jumps out to take him on with…
Capitaine is potentially well handicapped back over hurdles - but this looks like a pipe opener, prior to a return to fences; whilst Majestic Touch is probably the most solid option (if a little uninspiring !).
If Rob Walford has shown any form this season, I would be very interested in Our Merlin.
He was a big improver last season - and is not badly handicapped off a mark of 123.
He is likely to lead the field, so should make a decent in-running play.
I would suggest backing him pre-race and then laying off during the race, for either ‘free’ bet or a profit - hopefully !

1:50

This is just about the best novice chase run so far this season…
La Bague au Roi, Lostintranslation and Thomas Campbell are all rated 150+ over hurdles - and all 3 make their chasing debuts in this.
We have to guess on their ability to jump a fence - but my guess is that they'll all be pretty good at it !
That being the case, we could be in for a cracking race !
Le Bague au Roi has won on her seasonal debut for the past 4 seasons - and in receipt of the 7lb sex allowance from her rivals, looks the one to beat.
9/4 isn’t a massive price - but I would have her favourite, so she is worth supporting.
The other 3 runners shouldn’t be good enough to feature (though Talkischeap,  isn’t totally out of things).
That said, I’ll be keeping a particularly close eye on Absolute Power, who will be having his first run for a year, having shown distinct promise over hurdles…

Selection: La Bague au Roi at 9/4

2:55

A little like with the opening contest, this race has a short price favourite, who won his most recent race impressively - and who is running here before his new mark kicks in.
This time, it is Ready and Able, who won at Aintree, 11 days ago.
Because that was a conditional jockeys race, Ready and Able escapes a penalty tomorrow: he’s also had a week and half to recover - and is running over the same trip as last time.
In short, I think his credentials are stronger than those of New Quay.
On the flip side, he faces stronger opposition - but I guess you can’t have everything !
He is likely to take a bit of beating - helped by the fact that a few of his rivals appear to be running in the race, primarily to gain fitness.
That’s not the case with Clondaw Cian - and I was quite taken by his seasonal debut effort at Newton Abbot, last month.
If I were to take on the favourite, it would probably be him that I would side with…
That said, Pilansberg and Rio Quinto could both be of interest, on their return to action, if they came in for significant market support…

3:30

I can understand why Kapcorse is favourite for this - but he looks a bit short in the market to me, at around 5/2.
He won at Bangor on his chasing debut, in the spring - and still has loads of untapped potential.
However, that was a weak race - and he runs off a 12lb higher mark tomorrow.
I’m not saying he can’t win - but based on what we know (and we may not know everything !), he’s no value at tonights price…
I’d rather take a chance on Silverhow.
He won a decent race at Sandown, on the final day of last season - and whilst he never featured on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, he should be better for that run and will appreciation the drop back in distance.
We are guessing on the fitness for most of the others - but I’m sure the market will advise, close to the off !
  
Selection: Silverhow at 10/1

7 comments:

  1. New blog reader
    Good reading best of luck
    Jimmy

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cheers, Jimmy.
    New blog readers are always welcome :)

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  3. Missed a few winners on here by the looks of things, I'll be keeping a close eye on this blog. I've noticed a break between April and September, any particular reason?
    Regards Jimmy

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  4. It’s a long story, Jimmy - maybe worth you reading the very first blog post…

    Briefly: I run a subscription service - for NH racing, only (running Nov-Apr)
    I used to tip during the week - but it became impossible, due to the weak markets. Therefore, I now just tip at the weekends - and post thoughts on here, during the week…

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  5. Ok I understand, your blog will worth closely following then until April, good stuff
    Regards Jimmy

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  6. Thank you.

    I should be back on the blog, tomorrow or Wednesday- I'm recovering from the weekend exertions today !

    ReplyDelete