Wednesday November 14th

There are 4 NH meetings taking place tomorrow, and whilst there’s not much of note at either Ayr or Fairyhouse (assuming you ignore Sean Bowens 5 rides for Gordon Elliot, at the former venue !), then Exeter and Bangor both put on some decent races - and there is a potential start turn running at each venue…

Marias Benefit has her second run over fences at Bangor; whilst Black Op begins his chasing career at Exeter.
Both horses have the potential to be top class and could easily end up major players in championship races at the big spring festivals.

Needless to say, I would expect them to win tomorrow (even though victory for neither, is a formality).

The best race of the day, is the Anne Duchess of Westminster memorial chase at Bangor (1:50).

It’s attracted a really good class field - and if it was being run on a Saturday or Sunday, would definitely be classed as a TVB ‘Big’ race !

Run on a Wednesday, however, the early market is unlikely to be particularly strong.

That coupled with the fact that it’s a very open looking race, dissuaded me from getting involved with it - ‘officially’ speaking, anyway !

Bangor

1:50

This race certainly wouldn’t look out of place on a Saturday card - and a case of sorts, can be made for all 12 runners…

Sir Mangan won the race 12 months ago - and looks to have been primed for a repeat bid.

He also somehow finds himself running from a mark 7lb lower - so really should have a very good chance.

The only issue is, this looks to be a much more competitive renewal than last years - and whilst I’m sure he will run well, he just might find one or two of his progressive rivals, a bit too good.

There are 5 second season novice chasers in the race - and my feeling is that one of them will win.

The market favours Barney Dwan - and whilst I respect his claims, he usually finds a way to lose and is also plenty short enough in the betting.

Of more interest, are Rolling Dylan and Back to the Thatch.

The former could easily show improvement this campaign, with his stable in such good form; whilst the latter is likely to have been targeted at the race, by his shrewd trainer.

Full Irish and Sparkling River are the 2 others second season novices - and both have also got a chance.

The latter certainly looks over-priced, at 33/1…
It really isn’t an easy race to solve, as non of the 6 remaining runners can be completely dismissed.

At tonight's prices, I’d be inclined to side with Back to the Thatch - and maybe have a small EW play on Sir Mangan, to cover stakes…

Selection: Back to the Thatch at 10/1 - danger Sir Mangan EW at 10/1

2:55

This is another very tricky race - and again, a case can be made for most of the runners…

Whatmore and Present Ranger head the market - and whilst that is fair enough, I’m not sure I’d want to be backing anything in the race at 4/1 or under…

If I was to get involved, I’d maybe take a chance on Wilde Blue Yonder.

He’s definitely got the ability to win off his current mark - but he’s had injuries and is also making his seasonal debut.

The market will probably advise on stable expectations - but if he is fit and fancied, then tonights 8/1 would be decent value.

The other one of interest, is Ballyhill.

He reverts to hurdles tomorrow, having lost his way over fences.

He’s potentially well handicapped, running off a mark 1lb lower than when he won over fences, at Cheltenham on New Years day.

Again, the market is likely to advise on whether this is a confidence building exercise - or if he will be really going for it.

Selection: Wilde Blue Yonder at 8/1

Exeter

2:35

I’m not surprised to see Just a Sting installed the short priced favourite for this, after his recent win at Uttoxeter.
He may well be capable of following up - but he’s 6lb higher and it’s a deep race.

Certainly at a best price of 5/2, I’m happy to look elsewhere…

Gunfleet is the obvious alternative - but we are guessing on his fitness, and again , the price isn’t great.

I’d rather take a chance on Vodka all the Way and Merry Milan.

Somewhat oddly, they have the same owner - but different trainers.

The former is trained by Philip Hobbs and has Dickie in the saddle.

I suspect he will do better on his chasing debut than he did on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Newton Abbott, last month.

Merry Milan is making both his seasonal debut and his chasing debut - after just 3 runs over hurdles.
He’s a former PTP winner however, and it’s interesting that connections are keen to get him over fences asap.
He clearly comes with risks - but most 16/1 chances do !

Selection: Merry Milan at 16/1 

3:40

Trans Express was an official eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, last month.

He ran perfectly well there, in a better race - and I’m pretty sure the objective that day, was simply to get him spot on for today.

He should certainly strip fitter for the run - and the handicapper also generously dropped him 2lb.

Cheek pieces are reapplied tomorrow - so he must have a very good chance, at a course where he has historically performed well (3 wins and 2 seconds, from 7 runs).

I’m not surprised that he has been well backed - as the early 10/1 was too big.

Even the current 13/2 doesn’t look too bad - as I’ll be a little surprised if he’s out of the frame…

Whether he is good enough to win however, is a different matter.

Sue Gardners few runners haven’t performed particularly well - and he also faces at least a couple of decent rivals, in the form of Nayati and Casterly Rock.

My inclination is to have a small bet on him - possibly EW - but no more than that…

Selection: Trans Express at 13/2