Friday November 2nd

I’ve spent most of this week, getting things ready for the start of the Main TVB season (which happens to begin today !).

Consequently, I’ve not had time to post on the midweek blog - though in truth, only Tuesday offered suitable racing…

However, there is some suitable racing tomorrow - and whilst I tend to shy away from Fridays, I’ll make an exception this week.

The best meeting of the day, takes place at Wetherby - though the best horse, runs at Down Royal…

Wetherby

1:20

This is not a race to be going mad on - but it does look to lie between the market principals…

Askari represents Gordon Elliot - and he went close last time, in a similar race at Bangor.

He should appreciate the drop back in trip tomorrow - and looks the one to beat.

However, Ballyhome may well be able to beat him, on his debut for Fergal O’Brien.

He finished second on his final run for Brendan Powell - and whilst he has been rasied 4lb for that, Conor Brace is able to claim 8lb.

3/1 is hardly a generous price in a12 runner handicap - but provided he is ready, I suspect he will prove hard to beat.

Selection: Ballyhome at 3/1

3:05

This is the best race of the day, by some margin…

I think the field can be split in 2 - those above 11st and those carrying 11st or less - and I don’t fancy any of the top weights.

The trip won’t be far enough for Delusionofgrandeur or Dingo Dollar; whilst it could be too far for Just Cameron (who also has age to contend with).
The ground is the problem for Kylemour Lough (he wants it soft); whilst Spalsh of Ginge isn’t well handicapped…

Which leaves the bottom 5 to concentrate on.

I’ve no major issue with Born Survivor - and I would expect him to run well. Similarly, if Pain Au Chocolat is fit, he could outrun his odds, as conditions should suit him fine.

However, I suspect the winner will be one of the bottom 3…

Copain de Classe is the one to beat.

He won well on his seasonal debut at Kempton - and even under a 6lb penalty tomorrow, is 4lb well in.

I guess there is a slight possibility that he may ‘bounce’ - but the main issue with him is a price of 7/4…

The 2 to focus on, are therefore Guitar Pete and Cracking Find.

The former won the corresponding race 12 months ago, off a mark 10lb lower.

He followed that up by winning the Caspain Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December - and that was from a mark just 3lb lower than he races off tomorrow.

It’s hard to think that he won’t go close - and 9/2 is a fair price.

However, Cracking Find is marginally more interesting…

He is unproven at this level - but is only 7, so has plenty of scope for improvement.

He won 3 races last season, as a novice - and finished the campaign with decent runs in better quality events.

He ran with great promise on his seasonal debut at Wetherby a fortnight ago.

That was over the bare 2 miles - and he will appreciate being stepped back up in trip tomorrow.

Sue Smiths horses tend to improve for their debut run - and I expect Danny Cook will give him a forceful ride.

He’s a general 10/1 shot this evening - and is definitely value at that price.

Selection: Cracking Find at 10/1 - danger Guitar Pete

3:40

It’s impossible to look beyond Storm Rising, for the winner in this…

He hacked up in a stronger contest at Cheltenham a week ago - and because that was a conditional jockeys race, doesn’t get a penalty tomorrow.

Assuming that race didn’t bottom him (and it certainly didn’t appear to !) - and there are no accidents along the way - it’s hard to think he won’t win again…

I guess that’s what you’d expect of a 4/7 shot - so the question is what will follow him home..?

That’s a much trickier call - but Blue Hussar looks to have a better chance than his odds imply…

He’s run well at Wetherby in the past - and has been in reasonable form on the flat.

I can’t see him testing Storm Rising - but at 25/1 (5/1 a place), he may well be able to sneak in to the frame…

Selection: Blue Hussar EW at 25/1

Down Royal

1:45

The decision has been made: Samcro stays over hurdles this season - and he makes his seasonal debut in this…

He only faces 3 rivals (one of whom has little chance) - but it could still end up quite a test for him…

Sharjah won the Galway hurdle on his most recent outing over obstacles - and on official ratings, in receipt of 8lb from Samcro, he should beat him (and that excludes race fitness advantage, which he also holds).
Of course it is rarely that simple - but suffice to say, Samcro will have to be close to his best, if he is to win.

I suspect he will win - because he looks the real deal - but at odds of 1/3, I’ll be watching, rather than betting on it !