There’s some really good racing at Exeter and Sandown tomorrow - in fact, I would be quite happy if the racing this weekend is of a similar standard !
Exeter, is particular, puts on a couple of outstanding contests, which would grace most Saturday cards…
There’s also a meeting at Sedgefield - though it doesn’t inspire to quite the same extent !
Time is a bit tight for me this evening - so the previews are briefer than I would like.
Still, as they say, it’s quality that counts - not quantity :)
Exeter
2:05
This is the first of the exceptional races, run on the card.
It’s an incredibly strong handicap (far stronger than most class 3 races) - and I’m sure it will pay to watch it closely…
Awake at Midnight and Siruh du Lac were both impressive winners of good races last time - and neither has been harshly penalised for their win.
The issue for both, will be 2m4f on potentially heavy ground, as neither is proven in the conditions.
It doesn’t mean they won’t be able to cope with it - just that it’s impossible to be confident they will.
As a consequence, you couldn’t take too short a price on either…
Rather than side with them at relatively short prices, I’d be inclined to split stakes across Eamon An Cnoc and Zamdy Man.
They are 2 of the more exposed runners in the field - but both will relish heavy ground and will be well suited by the trip.
Eamon an Cnoc ran really well last time in the Betvictor Gold cup; and whilst Zamdy Man has more to prove on his seasonal debut, I’m sure Venetia can be counted on have him ready to do himself justice on his seasonal debut...
Selection: Eamon an Cnoc at 9/1 & Zamdy Man at 12/1
2:35
This is the second quality race on the card - though in truth, it is probably one to watch rather than bet in.
It sees Black Op make his chasing debut - and if he’s as good over fences as he was over hurdles, he will be exceptionally hard to beat.
He would be expected him to win almost any novice chase he contested - so it says much for the quality of this contest, that he’s no certainty…
Topofthegame is the first of his main rivals.
He represents Paul Nichols - and could turn out to be his best novice chaser.
He had a try at chasing last season - but fell on his only outing.
It was therefore put on hold until this season.
He did however manage to put up a series of excellent efforts in top class handicap hurdle races - so there is no doubting his ability.
White Moon is the other one of major interest.
He ran really well until falling at the last on his recent chasing debut at Cheltenham.
That was a very strong race - and despite running for the first time in a year, White Moon would have gone close to winning, without the mishap.
Assuming the incident hasn’t had a lasting effect, he sets a high standard.
Assuming the incident hasn’t had a lasting effect, he sets a high standard.
Defi de Seuil and Westend Story are good enough to win average novice chases - but they will be relative outsiders in this.
I wouldn’t really want to call the winner - though White Moon is possibly a bit of value at 7/2.
It’s really a race to be savoured, tho…
3:10
This is the third race of interest on the Exeter card - but the interest is mainly because it contains an official eye catcher…
The Two Amigos caught the eye last time, when running really well against the Some Chaos.
That one looked a very well handicapped horse (confirmed by his good run at Wincanton today) - so The Two Amigos lost little in defeat to him.
He was raised 3lb for finishing second that day - but he finished 9 lengths ahead of the third.
If Some Chaos hadn’t run in the race, then The Two Amigos would likely have got himself a 10lb rise in the handicap.
I therefore think he is probably still well handicapped.
Tomorrow's trip of 3m6f is a step into the unknown for him - particularly on heavy ground.
As a consequence, I again would be wary about taking too short a price.
That said, the opposition doesn’t look overly strong.
Garrane has a similar profile - and similar questions to answer; and whilst Firebird Flyer is potentially very well handicapped and will be well suited by the test - he is also nearly 12…
The Two Amigos looks worth a risk to me, at a price of 3/1 or bigger (I would suggest he should be about 5/2).
The Two Amigos looks worth a risk to me, at a price of 3/1 or bigger (I would suggest he should be about 5/2).
Selection: The Two Amigos at 7/2
Sandown
1:55
This is the most interesting race on the Sandown card - but it’s frighteningly competitive !
If asked to select the most likely winner, I’d side with Glen Rocco - but 5/1 is too short in a 16 runner novice handicap chase.
Lithic probably sets the form standard, on the back of his second to Springtown Lake over course and distance, last month.
8/1 is probably about the right price for him tho…
In terms of a ‘value bet’, I’d side with Secret Legacy.
He was a fair novice hurdler last season - and should have benefited from his debut run over hurdles at Bangor, last month.
He didn’t really feature that day, but should be better for the outing.
He can be backed at 20/1 this evening - and that could be worth a small risk, in what looks a relatively open contest.
Selection: Secret Legacy at 20/1
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