Thursday December 6th

There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow: at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Leicester in the UK - plus Clonmel in Ireland.

A host of racing - but it’s definitely a case of quantity over quality…

The Leicester card is again all hurdle races - and only marginally better than the card they staged on Sunday !

Things are a little better at Market Rasen - but it’s low grade stuff and relativity uncompetitive, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see favourites dominate proceedings…

The fields are bigger at Clonmel - but it’s a typical Irish mid week meeting - better watched, than punted on !

Which leaves Wincanton…

In fairness, their card is pretty good - for a mid week - though there is a big question mark concerning the state of the ground, so I would advise treading cautiously, until there is some clarity in that area (it’s currently reported to be good - but a lot of rain has been forecast).

There are 2 class 3 handicaps on the card - which are by some margin, the best 2 races of the day.

Here are my thoughts on them both…

Wincanton

1:30

Three interesting horses head the market for this - and whilst I’d be a little surprised if they finished first, second and third - I’d also be a little surprised if one of them didn’t win…

Cobolobo is the market leader, on the back of his short head defeat by Kilbricken Storm.

The winner is rated 152 - Cobolobo races off a mark of 123 tomorrow.

If the form doesn’t flatter him, he will absolutely dot up !

In fairness, it almost certainly does - but that doesn’t mean he still won’t win.

He’s very much the one to beat…

Second favourite, Some Chaos, has already won races 2 races in impressive fashion, this season.

On his seasonal debut, he hammered Cuddles McGraw - and that one won comfortably next time and is now rated 14lb higher.

Some Chaos has gone up 20lb - but he’s probably worth that rise.

Heavy ground would be an unknown: and Cobolobo a worrying opponent - but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see him win.

Reikers Island is third favourite - and it says much for the strength of the race that there are 2 ahead of him in the betting…

He ran well to finish third in a strong novice handicap at Uttoxeter, on his seasonal debut - and running off the same mark, that form would be strong enough to make him favourite for most races of this nature.

Of the 3 market leaders, he looks the one most likely to run his race - he just hasn’t quite got the upside of the other 2.

Maybe EW, at 5/1, is the best way to play things (as he should place - and could win).

It’s hard to seriously look beyond the 3 mentioned for the race winner - though if there is to be a surprise, Royal Paladium looks the one most likely to cause it.

He fell at the first on his seasonal debut: but has a very good record fresh and has run well at Wincanton in the past.

Venetia's horses are also finding their form - no doubt helped by the softening of the ground (which would also suit him).

2:05

There is an official TVB eye catcher running in this, in the shape of Our Merlin - and I would expect him to run very well…

In fact, I would nominate him as the most likely race winner - provided the forecast rain does materialise.

There is little doubt he wants soft: he finished second to Call me Lord and third to Remiluc last season, in much better races than tomorrows - and both of those were on heavy ground.

Since then, he's run 3 times on quicker ground - and has not performed as well.

However that has seen his handicap mark drop - and I thought he showed definite signs of a return to form, in his most recent run at Newbury.

That should have put him spot on for tomorrow - in which case, he could prove hard to beat.

He may also get an uncontested lead - which on a sharp track like Wincanton, will be a big bonus…

Of his rivals, then Darling Maltaix and Jaboticaba both look potentially dangerous - but both have been well found in the market.

Selection: Our Merlin at 12/1