Tuesday December 4th

As you will doubtless have noticed (!), it’s been a few days since I last posted on the mid-week blog…

The thing is, when I do post, I like to cover 4 races - and there hasn’t been a mid-week day since last Monday, when there were even close to 4 races of interest !

I’m not sure why I think 4 is the ‘right’ number..

I guess it feels sufficient to engage - without being so much, as to bore !

Anyway, I can see that if I try to stick the ‘4 race' rule, I might not be posting again this week, so I’ve lowered the bar, a little..!

There are a couple of decent races at Southwell tomorrow (grade 3 events) - and whilst the Fakenham card isn’t as good, there is one reasonable race.

I’ll therefore preview just the 3 races for tomorrow (could this be the future for the mid week blog, I wonder..?!)

Southwell

1:00

I quite like the shape of this race, with 8 runners, non of whom can be completely dismissed.
That said, I think it can be broken down into 4 ‘pairs’, in terms of the likelihood of winning:

Most likely, are Another Crick and Destrier.

The former sets the form standard - but the latter could possibly improve past him to win, on his chasing debut.

The next pair are Doc Carver and Super Sid.

Doc Carver is held on form by Another Crick - but there wasn’t a lot between them when they met at Chepstow: and Another Crick may have benefited from being held up off a fast pace.

Super Sid is another chasing debutante - and whilst his form over hurdles isn’t as strong as that of Destrier, he has plenty of potential.

The third pair are Castafiore and Walsingham Grange.

Castafiore shouldn’t beat Destrier - as he finished behind him last time, over hurdles and had the benefit of a run; whilst Walsingham Grange has quite a lot to prove on his second run over fences.

The final 2 are Swift Crusader and Eureu de Boulay.

I won’t say they can’t win - but I will say that victory for either, looks relatively unlikely…

With the market dominated by the first pair, I suspect the ones to concentrate on, are Doc Carver and Super Sid.

Both have a chance - and have probably been under-estimated in the early betting.

Doc Carver can be backed at 7/1 this evening: and Super Sid at 12/1.

My inclination, would be to try and get those prices - and then see tomorrow if Another Crick and Destrier drift to around 4/1.

I’d even consider backing Walsingham Grange and Castafiore - but I’d want double figures about both of them...

2:00

I don’t think there is a stand out contender in this race, either - but at the prices this evening, Present Times makes most appeal…

I actually tipped him last season, when he disappointed badly at Exeter, on his penultimate outing (though he was subsequently found to have injured himself).

What was interesting, was that he was backed in to 3/1 that day - in a class 2 race.

His other runs last season, stand up to quite close scrutiny - and I suspect he’s well handicapped.

He won on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, so hopefully fitness won’t be an issue tomorrow.

If that’s the case, then he’s a fair bet at this evening’s price of 7/1…

Non of his rivals have a water tight case: Crosspark has been running over fences: Wemyss Point is rising up the handicap; Saint Ladylime is making her seasonal debut (possibly before returning to fences).

They all can be given a chance - but not really a compelling one.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tomngerry turn out to be the biggest danger to Present Times - assuming the last named runs as well as I hope !

Selection: Present Times at 7/1

Fakenham

1:10

Balibour is the one that interests me most in this…

He’s only run twice over fences and performed creditably on his chasing debut at Kempton, in October.

He finished third that day and on the back of that run, was sent off at just 6/1 for a relatively strong novice handicap at Chepstow, last month.
However, he never game himself a chance in that race, pulling far too hard throughout.

It’s difficult to know why that would happen, with benefit of a run under his belt and not wearing head gear.

If he does the same tomorrow, he’s unlikely to win (though Fakenham is much better suited to front runners, than Chepstow !).

It’s interesting to see Leighton Aspell replacing a 5lb claimer in the saddle - and hopefully he will be able to settle the horse.

He’ll almost certainly need to, with an extra half mile to travel.

Wood Pigeon looks the most interesting of the other runners.

He’s one of a pair in the race, trained by Olly Murphy - and Aiden Coleman in the saddle suggests he’s probably (though not definitely !) the stables number 1.

He’s making his seasonal debut - but I doubt that will be an issue: and has won at the course previously - which is a definite positive, as Fakenham is a pretty unique track !!

Selection: Balibour at 7/1