Monday April 9th

Review 

I think I was a little premature yesterday, suggesting that the ground had sorted itself out !

It maybe wasn’t quite as bad as has been the case recently, but it was still pretty testing – and that wouldn’t have suited Mick Thonic.

Whether it was the reason he was beaten, is a more debatable.

He travelled nicely up to the home turn – but then found nothing.

The ground may have been the issue – but it’s just as likely that his breathing problems remain.

Whatever, he ended up well beaten…

That said, he still ran better than Western Climate did in the handicap chase at 2:50 !

I felt there was always a doubt over whether he would run his race, on the back of a very tough race last time.

The betting seemed to suggest he was in peak form – but it clear after just a couple of fences, that he wasn’t on his game.

He was soon detached, and was pulled up before the home turn.

So much for market confidence !

The market was much more accurate in predicting the performance of I’m a Game Changer.

He was backed early this morning – and went off 9/4 fav.

Again there were some question marks over his well-being – but he had clearly returned to action in good heart and won like a very well handicapped horse.

The final runner of interest on the day, was Strawberry Spirit.

She was a speculative one – and I would have wanted some market support in order to get involved.

It never materialised – and she was sent off at 20/1 (her BSP was over 30).

She was in touch to the home turn – but backed out of things quickly from that point.

She is likely to be dropped a few pounds for the run – and I’m sure she has sufficient ability to win a race (probably over a little shorter).

Lunchtime Update

If the objective of yesterdays preview, had been to identify horses which would halve in price this morning – then I think it could be argued that I’ve done pretty well !

Unfortunately, that isn’t the objective of the preview – and all it shows, is how difficult it is to preview races (or tip/back in them) when the markets aren’t mature.

In the handicap chase at 2:50, Western Climate has precisely halved in price.

He was 6/1 yesterday – and is 3/1 now.

If you knew he was fit and raring to go after his exertions at Uttoxeter, then maybe 3/1 isn’t too bad a price.

However, we are guessing on that score (though maybe those who have backed him, have a little more knowledge !).

I’m a Game Changer hasn’t quite halved in price in the 3:20 – but 3/1 in to 9/4 (best), is still a significant move.

Again, if we could be sure he was fit and raring to go after 6 months off, maybe 9/4 would be acceptable – but we don’t have that knowledge…

Mick Thonic is the third one to come is for very heavy support.

8/1 last night, you now can’t beat 9/2.

I have less of an issue with his price crash.

He was clearly too big last night – and there is less guesswork involved.

Strawberry Spirit (4:30) is the only mention from last night that hasn’t come in for serious support (that’s speculation for you !).

She was 12/1 yesterday – and has drifted to 20/1 is a place.

I’d want to see a bit of support before siding with her – but there is still time for that…

As you may have picked up last night, I am keen on Mick Thonic.

I always felt the price was far too big – and whilst it’s a little disappointing to see him shorten so much, I can understand it…

There is probably still a bit of margin in a price of 9/2 (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift a touch) – so I’ll make him the Lunchtime Nap.

Lunchtime Nap: Mick Thonic  Ludlow 3:55 (Fair Price 9/2)

  

Evening Preview 

As I said in my reply to Elliots question over the weekend, I did think that there might not be any more midweek blog entries this season…

However, there are 3 NH meetings tomorrow – all of which look likely to take place – and the ground shouldn’t be desperate.

Aintree may be looming on the horizon, but I’ve still managed to find a bit of time to look at the cards…

With meetings at Kempton, Wincanton and Ludlow, I expected the best racing to be taking place at the first named venue - but that’s not the case.

It’s not at Wincanton neither (which would have been my second guess): instead it is Ludlow which stages the days best racing.

To be fair, it’s a track that often punches well above its weight – and that’s the case again tomorrow, when they put on a really good card…

The first race of interest, is the handicap chase at 2:50.

I quite like the look of Western Climate (6/1) in this – though I would like him a fair but more if he’d not endured a gruelling race in the Midlands National, just over 3 weeks ago.

TBH, it’s anyones guess how he will have come out of that, so he’s maybe not a betting proposition.

However, if he is back to peak form, then sporting first time blinkers, and with Sean Bowen in the saddle, I think he’s the one to beat…

I like I’m a Game Changer (3/1) in the next (3:25) – but again, he has question marks over him…

He’s not run for 6 months – and comes from the stable of Philip Hobbs (which hasn’t been in good form for ages).

It’s also a negative that Dickie isn’t in the saddle (even tho Noel Fehily is good substitute).

On the plus side, he drops in class tomorrow (to class 3) – and whilst he was quite well beaten on both of his starts in the autumn (in class1 and class 2 events), he had excuses on both occasions, and ran better than the form book implies.

If he gets things right tomorrow, he could outclass his rivals…

I’m quite keen on Mick Thonic (8/1) in the 3:55 – provided the ground isn’t soft.

He was in the process of running a good race over tomorrows course and distance, back in October, until unseating at the third last.

There were reasons for his 3 subsequently disappointing runs – and I felt he performed with distinct promise on his return from an absence, at Hereford last month.

The ground would have been too soft for him that day, but he still showed up well –and the run should have put him spot on for tomorrow.

Sean Bowen is a positive jockey booking – and if he does get his ground, I think he will take a bit of beating.

There is a big field of mares assembled for the 4:30 race – and I might take a small chance on Strawberry Spirit (12/1).

I’ve been keeping an eye on her in novice events and she definitely has ability.

She makes her handicap debut tomorrow of a mark of 103 – and whilst there is plenty of guesswork involved, that feels like a reasonable mark.

It’s the kind of race where the market will need to be monitored closely – but if she does come in for some support, I’ll be inclined to take the hint !