Tuesday 24th April - Punchestown Day 1

It’s always hard to fathom the Punchestown festival - positioned at the very end of a long season…

Many of tomorrows runners will have ‘gone over the top’ – but in a lot of cases, we won’t know which ones until it is too late.

Also, the recent warm weather will have dried out the ground, so the going is likely to be a fair bit quicker than has been the case for the past few months.

All in all then, quite a few imponderables – and that’s before we get on to the races themselves !

On the flip side, the racing on day 1 is excellent – and as a consequence, I won’t be able to resist a small play or two – so thought I would share my views.

There will be no updates tomorrow (this is the TVB closed season, after all !) – but I’ll try to find time to post a few brief thoughts, the evening before each of the days…

4:20

The first of 3 grade 1 races on the card.

It’s hard to see beyond the top 3 in the market: Getabird, Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue.

Getabird is understandably favourite after an impressive win last time at Fairyhouse.

He got the run of the race that day though – so the victory may have flattered him a little.

Both Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue are the same price to place, as Getabird is to win – and I’d be more inclined to go with one of them.

I think Paloma Blue has untapped potential – provided he can be settled.

He should be able to place - and may be able to win.
At around 5/1 he's not a bad bet (EW).

4:55

A wide open handicap where confidence is limited…

Low Sun holds most appeal – though he could well end up a bit bigger than the current 12/1.

Of the outsiders, then High School Days is moderately interesting – particularly at 40/1 !

However, it’s the kind of race where there could easily be a plunge on something (probably owned by JP McManus !)

5:30

A truly fascinating contest – and I find it amazing that Douvan, Min and Un De Sceaux are up against each other !

Whilst all 3 are (or have been) top class – they all have fair sized question marks over them.

Certainly it would be hard to back Douvan at even money, on the back of a fall in his only run in over a year…

Min is a more solid option – but has had a couple of hard recent races and Paul Townend has deserted him.

The same is true of Un De Sceux – and the ground is likely to be too quick for him…

Conditions should be perfect for Special Tiara and I can see him running really well.

He may not be quite up to winning – but at 25/1, is backable EW.

6:40

As with the hurdle race, it’s hard to look beyond the top 3 in the betting: Monalee, Al Boum Photo and Shattered Love.

On various form lines, they are within a couple of lengths of each other – so it could simply be a question of which one is on the best form and relishes the conditions.

At the prices, I would have to side with Shattered Love (6/1) – even though she may prefer softer and has had a couple of recent tough races.
I’ve actually backed her for next years Gold cup, at 33/1 – and if she wins this, she won’t still be that price !

Jury Duty interests me most of the outsiders (he has form with Shattered Love) – though he too would prefer softer ground.