Friday 27 April 2018

Saturday 28th April


There is some ridiculously competitive racing tomorrow – which I could easily spend hours pouring over !

However, I need to remind myself that the TVB season is now over – and for good reason !
Races are particularly difficult to solve at this time of year…

The rain at Sandown won’t help things either – so you should think of the following more as final day musings, rather than solid advice !

Good luck if you do choose to get involved !!


Sandown

1:50

4 against the field: Show on the Road; Burrows Edge; Friday Night Light and Going Gold.
At 28/1, the last named is probably the most interesting – but it’s a wide open race, in which most of the runners can be given a chance.

2:25

This looks between Top Notch and Art Mauresque.
The former should win – but is priced accordingly. The latter represents better value (provided the ground remains quick-ish) - and is certainly worth considering EW, if you can get 5/1…

3:00

Needless to say, Altior should win this – but he makes limited appeal at 1/4.
The question is whether it is worth taking him on…
On decent ground – and with an uncontested lead –  I would be tempted by Special Tiara. However, Ar Mad will almost certainly take him on – plus, he may not get his ground.
Diego de Charmil was really impressive at Aintree last time – even if his race probably took very little winning.
It would be a major shock if he were to beat Altior – but at least he arrives in top form…

3:35

This doesn’t strike me as an overly strong race (considering the value).
I was really keen on The Young Master when he fell at the first in last weeks Scottish national.
I don’t know how much that took out of him – but if he’s still in top form, I think he’s the one to beat.
I think Minella Daddy and Rathlin Rose have both got chances – but at a really big price, I’ll take a small chance of Relentless Dreamer.
Rebecca Curtis has had a horrible season – but she won the Scottish national – and it would be kind of typical, if she were to take this as well !

4:05

I think Call me Lord should win this – but I won’t be backing him at 7/4 !

4:40

War Sound will undoubtedly run well in this – but he’s got to be vulnerable over the trip – and with a hill at the end.
The tricky bit is finding one to beat him…
Ramonex is probably over priced at 16/1 – and could be worth a small play.

5:15

What a race to finish the season with !
Wait for Me won it last year – and must have a good chance of following up off a 5lb higher mark.
Le Breiul win last time – but was still a bit disappointing !
However, he gets first time cheek pieces tomorrow, so I have to keep him on side (as I thought he could be a really good horse).
I thought Ordo ab Chao ran well on his debut for Olly Murphy – and he would be interesting if strong in the betting.
Whilst I really fancied Landin at Aintree – but he ran no sort of a race.
Maybe first time cheek pieces will sort him out !
Another ‘short’ list of 4 !


Punchestown

2:35

I fancied Hurricane Darwin for the cross country chase at Cheltenham – but I fancy him even more for this !
8/1 is a perfectly acceptable price – even though you’ll probably get bigger tomorrow (I would suggest waiting).

3:10

Wicked Willie is a rare runner in Ireland for Nigel TD – and this looks a winnable race.
Rogue Angel and Fine Rightly  are both of some interest – maybe from a back to lay in running perspective (the former front runs, whilst the latter is a strong traveller)

3:50

Apples Jade or Benie des  Dieu..?
Apples Jade, of course ! If only they were all that simple J

4:25

It’s hard to look beyond the market principals in this…
Farclas, Mr Adjudicator and Stormy Island.
I’ll probably bide my time and see if I can get 4/1 on one of them.
I’d like it to be on Mr Adjudicator – but there really is very little between them…

5:00

Isleofhopesendreams has the form to win this – if he is in top form.
That’s far from guaranteed after a couple of recent hard races – but on the flip side, he is trained by Willie Mullins !

5:35

Time to get the pin out !
Spades are Trumps is unexposed – and his defeat of Paloma Blue reads very well.
He’s maybe worth a small risk at 20/1 (if you can get it !)

2 comments:

  1. Hi, I followed your blog last season and I'd like to join when you start again. How much please for the weekend Service for the duration of the season that you cover. Thanks Elliot

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Elliot.

    Good to hear from you again.

    If you get in touch via the contact form on the main TVB site: http://www.thevaluebettor.co.uk/contact.html
    that will provide me with an email address, which I can use to contact you.
    I’ll then get in touch, at the beginning of next month, with details of what will be on offer in the Main service, this season.

    If you want a feel for what happened in the Main service last season, all of the output – including an end of season summary report – is now available via an online blog: https://tvb2017-18-bigraces.blogspot.com/ (you can view the output from the previous 5 seasons as well – if you so wish !)

    All the best,

    Andrew.

    ReplyDelete