Wednesday 25th April - Punchestown Day 2

The results at Punchestown yesterday, were just about as unpredictable as I expected – and that’s excluding the novice chase ! (which had one of the most bizarre finishes I’ve ever seen !).

The rain softening the ground, didn’t help things – but I think it was mainly a case of a number of the horses not running up to form, after a long season on the go.

All this said, it was interesting that Mullins & Elliott still managed to win the 5 main races on the day between them – just not with their most obvious candidates !

The ‘system’ seems obvious then: stick to lesser fancied representatives of the ‘big 2’ !

3:40

I’ve no idea what will win this: my only observation is that Icanstay should make a good pre-race back, to lay in-running – assuming he jumps off OK (which isn’t totally guaranteed !)

4:20

Using the ‘system’ described above, Good Thyne Tara could be quite interesting.

She has some form with Samcro, which reads well: she also ran third at this meeting last year, staying on well to finish just over a length behind Pravalaguna.

At 9/1 she looks a fair bet (maybe EW)

4:55

Next Destination is very much the one to beat – but 13/8 is too short about anything, at this meeting…

The Mullins third strong, Brahma Bull looks quite interesting for a 25/1 shot – particularly as he may improve for his run at Cheltenham.

Similarly, the Gordon Elliot third string, Lackaneen Leader, could be over priced, also at 25/1…

Both horses have a lot to prove – but I doubt they would be running, if their trainers didn’t feel they were capable of being competitive.

5:30

Road to Respect is the right favourite – even though he is held by Outlander on their Down Royal run from November !

Outlander has disappointed on his 2 most recent runs – but if he bounces back to form, he’s got a definite chance.

Djakadam should run his race – and looks a good bet to place (less good to win !): whilst Sizing Granite could definitely be worth a small speculative play at 33/1 in a race which looks nearly impossible to call with any confidence.

6:05

Yet another very difficult race to call (do you notice a theme ?!).

5 of the first 6 from the Cheltenham bumper, do battle again – and simply choosing which one of those will come out on top this time, is a very tricky task !

Rather than get involved with that formline, I’d maybe take a chance on Dorking Boy.

His trainer Tom Lacey could hardly be in better form – and it seems significant that he’s brought the horse over to contest this race.

Confidence couldn’t be high – but at 16/1 he’s maybe worth a small play.

6:40

I was quite keen on Polidam, last time at Aintree – but he didn’t handle the big fences.
Back over conventional obstacles, he’s worth giving another chance, at the general 12/1.

The other one of interest is Woodland Opera.

He’s won at the past 2 Punchestown festivals – so has probably has this on his agenda for quite some time (unlike many of his opponents).

A price of 8/1 is tight enough – but probably not far off the mark.