It was nice to have a few winning selections on the blog today…
The prime purpose of the blog, is to share my views - not for me to tip (I save that for the Main service !) - but all the same, if I express a strong fancy for a horse, it’s pleasing when it runs well.
It was particularly pleasing to see Modus run so well this afternoon.
Clearly, he’s not a natural over fences - but he has an abundance of talent - and was ridden by a jockey who gave him plenty of confidence.
Clearly, he’s not a natural over fences - but he has an abundance of talent - and was ridden by a jockey who gave him plenty of confidence.
Ultimately, that combination was just about enough to get him home in front…
Tomorrows meeting at Aintree is a cracker - with a number of really interesting races.
That said, they are again races which we should be primarily watching and learning from (similar to Chepstow, a couple of weekends ago).
Obviously, it will be nice if I can pick out another winner (or two !) - but that becomes more important, from next weekend onwards..!
Anyway, here are my thoughts on each of the races on the card:
Aintree
2:00
Aye Aye Charlie sets the standard in this - and in fairness, it’s quite a high standard.
He was placed in grade 1 novice company last season - and with a rating of 142, should be more than capable of taking an average maiden, this season (or even, an above average one !).
That said, he faces a few rivals with some potential - and as a consequence, I couldn’t be interested in him at 1/2.
If he’s still that price (or shorter !) at the off, then he will almost certainly win - but there is a chance that one of his unexposed rivals could be very useful.
Stoney Mountain is the most obvious one - as he has good bumper form: though I wouldn’t be surprised to see big runs from either Present Ranger or Dorking Cock.
Very much a watching race…
Selection: Stoney Mountain at 4/1
1:15
This is the first of a series of really fascinating races on the card…
Settimo Milanese heads the market on his first run in a handicap for Dr Newland.
He’s very hard to quantify - but a mark of 125 doesn’t look unreasonable.
He’s 4/1 this evening - and if he’s well backed tomorrow, I suspect he’ll win…
That said, at the prices currently on offer, I’m more inclined to take a chance on Jump for Dough.
He won a couple of handicaps at Musselburgh, early in the year, before finishing fifth in the Pertemps qualifier at the same track.
He wasn’t seen again, until reappearing at Hexham last month.
He ran a nice race that day - looking as if the run would bring him on.
He wears a tongue tie for the first time tomorrow - and if that has the desired effect, I would expect him to run a big race.
There are plenty of others, of potential interest - so keep an eye on the betting for moves on Spiders Bite and Ready and Able, in particular…
Selection: Jump for Dough at 12/1 - danger Settimo Milanese
1:50
2 official eye catchers run in this - and the main TVB season hasn’t even started yet !
Both Beat That and Double Ross, caught the eye in a the veterans race at Chepstow 2 weeks ago - and I would expect both to run well tomorrow.
The betting has picked up on Beat That.
That’s understandable - as he still has potential (even though he is a veteran !).
That’s understandable - as he still has potential (even though he is a veteran !).
He may win - but 5/2 is too short in such a competitive race…
Double Ross on the other hand, is an 8/1 shot - and worthy of support at that price.
He caught my eye last time, simply because he looked so full of himself !
Assuming he’s not quite as exuberant tomorrow (he fell at the very first fence, last time!), I think he will run a big race.
The other one of particular interest in the race, is Pendra.
He is a very fragile horse - and he tends to run his best races, first time out.
This is his first run in a veterans chase - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him backed in to favouritism.
If you can secure the 7/1 on offer this evening, he’s definitely worth a saver….
Selection: Double Ross at 8/1 - danger Pendra
3:25
I don’t have a particularly strong view on this race (but it is still very interesting !).
Bryon Flyer looks the one to beat - but a price of 3/1 isn’t particularly tempting…
In fact, Paisley Park holds more appeal at 10/1 - though I wouldn't be surprised to see either Haul Away or Lygon rock, beat them both…
Unfortunately, the 4 named, head the market.
At the prices, Paisley Park is probably the value option - even if he may not be the most likely winner…
Selection: Paisley Park at 10/1
3:00
The big race of the day is a real cracker - tho I suspect the market has things about right…
That said, I would be prepared to take on Cloudy Dram on his debut for Donald McCain.
He’s very talented horse - but quite a polite one too (he’s generally prepared to let one of his rivals go in front of him !)
On pure weights and measure, he can’t beat Flying Angel.
That one had his measure when the 2 met over course and distance, 18 months ago - and he’s 12 lb better off tomorrow.
However, whereas Cloudy Dream is a model of consistency, Flying Angle is anything but !
That said, at respective prices of 11/4 and 11/2, you have to take a risk on Flying Angel…
Frodon is the other one of major interest - but he’s third fav behind Cloudy Dream and Flying Angel.
Certainly, I would struggle to make a strong case for any of the longer priced runners…
Selection: Flying Angel at 11/2
3:35
This is another really interesting race - but a hard one to call…
All of the runners have significant potential - so it really is a race best watched.
I’ll take Polydora and Lord du Mesnil against the field - but mainly because they offer a bit of ‘value’.
Both are completely unexposed - and I’m a fan of their respective trainers.
I don’t know whether either will prove good enough to win tomorrow - but I’ll be a little surprised if both don’t win races this season…
Selection: Lord du Mesnil at 16/1 - danger Polydora
5:10
There is too much guesswork required to offer a proper selection in this.
However, I suspect that Rebecca Curtis is going to bounce back this season - and Legends Gold looks like the kind of horse she has historically done well with.
However, I suspect that Rebecca Curtis is going to bounce back this season - and Legends Gold looks like the kind of horse she has historically done well with.
If it’s expected to win, it will be backed (even shorter than the 4/1 available this evening).
Selection: Legends Gold at 4/1
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