Thursday October 5th

Review

The market support for Herewego Herewego, in the opener at Warwick, was unrelenting – and he was eventually sent off at 8/11 (having been 11/8 at lunchtime – and 5/2 last night).

He didn’t really win like an 8/11 shot – but he did win, and ultimately that’s all the counts !
I suspect he will improve as the season progresses…

Sceau Royal was also well backed (1/2 into 1/3) – and he did win like a 1/3 shot.

Again, today is likely to be just the first step of a fruitful campaign…

I was a bit concerned that the apparent market strength of Tanarpino and Aviator in the 3:50, was actually down to the market weakness of the favourite Resolution Bay – and that proved to be the case…

Aviator was back out to 12/1 at the off: and whilst Tanarpino was sent off at 4/1, he wasn’t overly strong in the betting, close to the off.
Ultimately, neither of them was placed – but both ran reasonable races, and I would expect them to improve for the outing.

The weakness in Resolution Bay proved spot on – and he simply looked of limited ability.
I suspect he will be switched to fences, sooner rather than later…

Ballycross continued to be well supported in the 4:00 – and whilst he ran a fair race, he wasn’t quite good enough.

The market suggested that Sego Success would need the run – and that was how it looked in the race, with him just run out of it, close home.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go one better net time (particularly if a visor is applied instead of cheekpieces).

At Huntingdon, Royal Plaza travelled really well in the 2:00 – and looked likely to win (touched 1.2 in running).

However, he wasn’t quite able to hold off Deauvuille Dancer.

Finally, my ‘short list’ of 6 in the bumper, managed to proved the first 3 home – and at odds of 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 !

The forecast paid £297 – and the trifecta £2,800 !
Shame I only thought about the exotic bets, after the runners had crossed the line !!

Lunchtime update

There have been some very interesting market moves, this morning…

In the opener at Warwick, Herewego Herewego has been really strong, and has been cut from a best price of 5/2 last night, to a best price of 11/8.

The suggestion is that he will take a deal of beating…

Conversely, Resolution Bay has been really weak in the 3:50.
He was 6/4 last night – but can now be backed at 3/1.

My feeling was that 6/4 was too short – and at 3/1, he may actually represent a bit of value (the market seems to have over-reacted).

With Resolution Bay so weak, it’s not too surprising to see that a number of his rivals are now significantly shorter in the market.

The 9/1 on Tanarpino is now 4/1: whilst Aviator has also halved in price, from 14/1 to 7/1…

I suspect that the market will swing back a little (in favour of Resolution Bay), before the race gets under way…

In the 4:25, Ballycross has usurped Sego Success at the head of the market.

I don’t find that too surprising – but we will have to wait until closer to the off, for confirmation of the fitness levels of the respective horses (the current suggestion is that Ballycross is straighter than Sego Success).

At Huntingdon, Royal Plaza has drifted to 4/1in the 2:00 race…

I find that a little surprising and would certainly be tempted by him, at that price…

The market is yet revealed anything in the bumper which closes the card (5:15).
Gibeno is favourite - but that was the case last night…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of meetings tomorrow: at Warwick and Huntingdon, with the former course providing the more interesting action…

In the opener (2:15), it looks highly significant that Barry Geraghty is over, for just the one ride - and on a horse who’s not raced for 18 months…
Provided Herewego Herewego remains strong in the betting (currently 5/2, best) - suggesting he is ready to run his race - then despite the absence, he is likely to take the beating…

There’s a potentially top class novice chaser running in the 3:20, in the shape of Sceau Royal.

He was sixth in last seasons Champion hurdle – and that’s form which non of his rivals can match…

He was also quickly into his stride last season, so I wouldn’t expect fitness to be an issue.

That said, at 1/2, I’ll be watching, rather than backing him…

The 2 most interesting races of the day, from a betting perspective, are 3:50 and 4:25…

Resolution Bay has been put in very short in the 3:50 (6/4) and I couldn’t be interested in him at that kind of price…

I’d be more inclined to take a risk on Tanarpino or Aviator, at much bigger prices…

There is a chance that Tanarpino is using this as a warm up, before returning to fences.

However, he ran really well on his seasonal debut 12 months ago (over fences) – and is the only runner at he course, for Jenny Candlish and Sean Quinlan.

He’s 9/1 tonight and I would expect the market to advise on his chance…

Aviator has only run once in the past 18 months, so is quite speculative.

However, provided he retains his ability, he’s not badly treated off a mark of 118.

He could be worth a small risk at 14/1…

Sego Success is more than capable of winning the 4:25 race – if primed to do so…

The bookies are taking no chances with a price of 9/4 this evening – but it’s arguably a fair price, provided he’s ready to run his race…

Second fav, Ballycross is the other one of major interest.

Again, you are taking a risk on his fitness (though most Nigel Twiston Davies runners are raring to go, at this time of year), but he has potential – and if you can get 5/1, that’s a fair bet.

At Huntingdon, I like the look of Royal Plaza, who is making his debut for Olly Murphy in the 2:00 race.

Formerly trained by Alan King, he always looked capable of being better than his current mark of 120.

He’s a 3/1 shot this evening, which doesn’t strike me as too bad a price (though it’s quite a competitive race)…

Finally, there are lots of potentially interesting horses running in the bumper which closes the card, at 5:00.

The market will doubtless advise on the likely outcome, with Cloud Hopper, Gibeno, Normal Norman, Cuckoos Calling, Queen Montoya and Shaella, all of potential interest, if backed…

Wednesday October 4th

Review

As is so often the case at this time of year (when fitness can only be guessed at), the market proved extremely prophetic…

In the 2:45, It’s a Game was a huge drifter (out to 25 on BF, at the off), suggesting that the run was badly needed.

And that’s exactly how he ran…

He travelled like a well handicapped horse – even touched 2.2 in-running – but ultimately tired and finished a well beaten third…

The expectation will be that he will improve hugely for the run – and therefore be of great interest next time.

That may be the case – but equally, first time back is often the best time to catch a horse, following a long break.
As with today, the market will doubtless guide…

Grand Coureur ran disappointingly in the same race.

He was well supported in the lead up to the race (into 6/1) – however in the crucial 5 mins prior to the off, he was relatively weak in the market (BSP 9.8).

Ultimately, he didn’t run very well – and with no obvious excuse…

The market weakness of It’s a Game in the 2:45, was surpassed by that of Abbotswood in the 3:50…

He was 3/1 last night – but was sent off at 18.5 on BF !

That is a monumental drift, by anyones standard – and illustrated the risks associated with supporting horses which are making their seasonal debut…

Like It’s a Game, he ran really well, considering – and only weakened out of third place, after jumping the last.

However, he was no match for the 2 others of interest in the race…

Cuirassier Dempire was solid throughout the day – and won as he liked.

He looked a horse capable of ranking much higher…

Anteros was also very solid in the market.

12/1 last night, his SP of 5/1 suggested a big run was expected - and that’s precisely what he delivered.

He was just unlucky to bump into a rival who had at least a stone in hand of his mark…

Lunchtime update

It’s a Sting and Grand Coureur, have both been backed in the 2:45 – but in the case of the former, not as much as I thought might have been the case…

I wouldn’t have been surprised to see the 14/1 of last night, 7/1 by now – however, 12/1 is still available in a couple of places…

If he’s going to win, then I expect him to be very well backed (less than 7/1 at the off).

I guess there is still time – though I would really have expected more support to have materialised by now…

I didn’t expect Grand Coureur to be as strongly supported – so a general trimming of 12/1 into 8/1, would count as decent support.

Provided he doesn’t drift prior to the off, I would expect him to run a big race….

Cuirassier Dempire has remained rock solid in the market for the 3:50.

9/4 feels a bit too short – but if he remains at that price, he is the most likely winner…

Abbotswood has drifted out to 11/2 in a few places and is maybe worth a small risk at those odds (he did look a bit too short in the market, last night).

Anteros has been well backed, into 8/1 - pretty much scuppering the EW angle with him...

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of very interesting looking novice handicap chases, on tomorrows Bangor card…

The first of them is off at 2:45 – and I like the look of 2 of the longer priced horses (well, they are longer prices this evening !).

It’s a Sting hasn’t run for nearly 600 days – and he hardly covered himself in glory when he was last on the track.

However, he finished behind some very useful horses in all of his novice hurdles – and was sent off 3/1 fav on his chasing debut in a decent contest at Stratford, 2 years ago.

He did nothing that day – but both his hurdles form and his price that day, suggest he is capable of being much better than his current lowly rating of 105…

Oliver Sherwood has an ability to bring back horses from a long absence – and he is Leighton Aspells only ride of the day.

He’s 14/1 this evening – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him heavily backed tomorrow…

The other one of interest, is Grand Coureur.
Again, he comes with risks, as he is making his chasing debut.
However, his best run over hurdles was also at Bangor - and on that form, he is attractively handicapped off a mark of 101.

Nick Williams has won with his 2 most recent 2 runners (so is in form) – and there is a chance this one can bring up the treble.

Again, 12/1 is an attractive price (which is unlikely to last !)

Things look a little more obvious in the other race of interest, at 3:50…

Anteros is an obvious route in – as we have very fond memories of him !

He’s well handicapped on a mark of 112 – and is likely to run his race. However, he may find a couple of younger, more progressive horses too good for him…

The 2 in question are Cuirassier Dempire and Abbotswood.

The former broke his duck over fences, last time at Worcester and looks the type to keep on improving.

Abbotswood makes his chasing debut tomorrow - but is an ex PTP winner, so could well improve for fences.

The issue, is the prices: with Cuirasser 9/4 fav – and Abbotswood a 10/3 shot.

Maybe they will drift tomorrow…

Anteros is more attractive at 12/1 (in a place) – and if all 8 make it to post, he would hold a fair bit of EW appeal, at that price.

Monday October 2nd

Review 

Stratford

Aunty Ann was ponderous over the first few fences – and never really featured in the 2:30.

There is a chance that she might want further – but there is also a chance that she’s just not that good !

Bramble Brook was backed down to a ridiculous 11/8.

In fairness, he did look like collecting – but found little when put under pressure.

As it was his seasonal debut, he could be worth another chance – though the market suggested that he was ready to do himself justice today.

Riverside Theatre travelled well, until stopping sharply.

Apparently he burst a blood vessel, so would have to be treated with caution, in the future…

Abbreviate was never in with much of a chance in the 4:00 – though he did run on late, in reasonably tenacious style.

The eye catcher in the race, was Valhalla.

He jumped and travelled really well – but didn’t get home.

As over hurdles, an aggressive ride over 2 miles, could well be the answer…

Both Rouergate and Scented Lily, ran fair races in the finale – without looking likely to win.

Both still have scope for improvement – but don’t look world beaters at this point in time.

In the 3:30 race, I thought Tanit River ran better than the result suggests.

He could be of interest, if sent back over fences, next time…

Newton Abbot

Robbie Power managed to get up a double on 2 of the Alan Potts horses, with Sizing Platinum looking the one that he had come over to ride.

He won well – despite continued market support for De Faoithesdream.

In the circumstances that one got a slightly strange ride – as he likes to race prominently, but was held up.

My feeling was that there could still be another race in him – maybe in a bigger field (possibly even at the Showcase meeting !).

Lunchtime update 

Stratford

Aunty Ann has been well backed in the 2:30 race – you can’t now beat 5/1.

That strikes me as a fair price.

Bramble Brook is now favourite – which I can understand, even if I’d struggle to support him at 3/1 !

Riverside Theatre on the other hand, is a big drifter…

Abbreviate is still the outsider of the field in the 4:00 – but a best price of 9/1 has now become 6/1.

Again, that seems fair – though there is a lot of uncertainty in the race…

In the final contest, Rouergate is out to 6/1.

That is probably significant (bearing in mind how well Andrew Brooks bumper horse was backed on Saturday, at Market Rasen) – though there is still a chance he will get backed late…

Scented Lily is a 16/1 shot – and could be worth a tiny play at that price.

Newton Abbot

Passed its early morning inspection – but the ground will be very heavy.

Robbie Power is over to ride a few Alan Potts horses, for Colin Tizzard – which is probably significant.

Heavy ground and lots of seasonal debutantes, mean that extreme caution should be exercised…

However, in the 3:20, I will be very tempted by De Faoithesdream.

He could be in decline – but he will be fitter than most of his rivals; will love the mud – and is very well handicapped.

I can see him making all in this – and whilst I was hoping for better than 11/2 (he was 9/1 yesterday evening), I can understand the market support…

Evening Preview

I’ll resist commenting on Newton Abbot until tomorrow, as it needs to pass an early morning inspection, due to very heavy ground…

There is a fair card at Stratford, however – and a few races of interest:

In the handicap chase at 2:30, Aunty Ann catches the eye, for Charlie Longsdon.

She is a winning pointer, who will be having her second run over fences – and has a 7lb claimer in the saddle (despite Johnny Burke riding at the meeting).

She’s a best price of 8/1, this evening…

Bramble Brook is also quite interesting – but that’s based more on potential, than what he’s actually achieved on the course.

Furthermore, a best price of 7/2 looks tight (though I’ve no doubt it will be shorter, if he’s really fancied !).

Riverside City is the third one worthy of a mention.

I’m sure he’ll be winning sooner rather than later, for Jonjo – but tomorrow’s trip of 2m5f looks too short, to me.

I’ll just be keeping an eye on him…

The novice chase at 4:00, looks a really right contest…

There’s only 5lb between all of the runners, on hurdles ratings – and all are young enough to improve for fences…

In the circumstances, Abbreviate hold most appeal, as outsider of the field (9/1 this evening).

He also ran well on his seasonal debut last year, suggesting that he can be effective, fresh.

I’d struggle to choose between the other 4 – but there is little incentive to do so, when you can’t beat 4/1 on any of them…

Finally, in the bumper at 5:00, Bryan Cooper is back over for a single ride for Andrew Brooks.

He rode an impressive winner for Brooks at Market Rasen on Saturday - and there must be a chance it will be same case tomorrow.

However, the bookies aren’t taking any chances, and it’s hard to recommend a price of 7/2, when you are effectively betting blind…

Scented Lily makes more appeal on debut for Charlie Longsdon.

The stable is in good form – and she’s the only ride on the card for Johnny Burke.

14/1 looks a decent price – and it’ll be interesting to see what the market eventually makes of her…

Introduction

TheValueBettor has successfully run a subscription service for the past 5 years.

Focusing on NH racing during the main months of the season (Nov-Mar), it has made a profit to advised prices, in all 5 seasons: with a total return over the period, of 139pts on 407pts staked (ROI 34%).

However, the sharp practices of the bookmakers (pricing races up early – but not really being prepared to take a bet: coupled with significant over-rounds) have made it nearly impossible to tip profitably mid-week.

Consequently, the scope of the TVB subscription service (the main service) has been reduced to simply the big races, where the bookmakers are more prepared to take a bet – and margins aren’t so great.

Aside from the Cheltenham festival and Christmas period, most of these races are run on a Saturday (Sunday in Ireland), so the purpose of this blog is to fill the mid-week void !

My intention is to preview some of the smaller mid-week races, in which it is no longer feasible for me to tip.

I won’t be previewing races every day – just when opportunities arise and time, permits.

Obviously my prime loyalty will be with the main service subscribers – and if I have any strong opinions they will be shared with them via the TVB members forum, before I publish anything on this blog.

However, I would hope that people will still find my thoughts interesting – and whilst there won’t be any ‘tips’ on this blog, I would also hope that it will be possible to use my opinions to make a profit from the mid-week races.

If you would like to join the main TVB subscription service, and receive tips/write-ups on the Big race days – plus have access to the forum (for weekly eye catchers, Racing Systems ideas, and general discussion), then please use the contact form on the TVB website – or email me at thevaluebettor@gmail.com

Here’s to an enjoyable – and profitable – journey ahead…

TVB.