Thursday October 5th

Review

The market support for Herewego Herewego, in the opener at Warwick, was unrelenting – and he was eventually sent off at 8/11 (having been 11/8 at lunchtime – and 5/2 last night).

He didn’t really win like an 8/11 shot – but he did win, and ultimately that’s all the counts !
I suspect he will improve as the season progresses…

Sceau Royal was also well backed (1/2 into 1/3) – and he did win like a 1/3 shot.

Again, today is likely to be just the first step of a fruitful campaign…

I was a bit concerned that the apparent market strength of Tanarpino and Aviator in the 3:50, was actually down to the market weakness of the favourite Resolution Bay – and that proved to be the case…

Aviator was back out to 12/1 at the off: and whilst Tanarpino was sent off at 4/1, he wasn’t overly strong in the betting, close to the off.
Ultimately, neither of them was placed – but both ran reasonable races, and I would expect them to improve for the outing.

The weakness in Resolution Bay proved spot on – and he simply looked of limited ability.
I suspect he will be switched to fences, sooner rather than later…

Ballycross continued to be well supported in the 4:00 – and whilst he ran a fair race, he wasn’t quite good enough.

The market suggested that Sego Success would need the run – and that was how it looked in the race, with him just run out of it, close home.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go one better net time (particularly if a visor is applied instead of cheekpieces).

At Huntingdon, Royal Plaza travelled really well in the 2:00 – and looked likely to win (touched 1.2 in running).

However, he wasn’t quite able to hold off Deauvuille Dancer.

Finally, my ‘short list’ of 6 in the bumper, managed to proved the first 3 home – and at odds of 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 !

The forecast paid £297 – and the trifecta £2,800 !
Shame I only thought about the exotic bets, after the runners had crossed the line !!

Lunchtime update

There have been some very interesting market moves, this morning…

In the opener at Warwick, Herewego Herewego has been really strong, and has been cut from a best price of 5/2 last night, to a best price of 11/8.

The suggestion is that he will take a deal of beating…

Conversely, Resolution Bay has been really weak in the 3:50.
He was 6/4 last night – but can now be backed at 3/1.

My feeling was that 6/4 was too short – and at 3/1, he may actually represent a bit of value (the market seems to have over-reacted).

With Resolution Bay so weak, it’s not too surprising to see that a number of his rivals are now significantly shorter in the market.

The 9/1 on Tanarpino is now 4/1: whilst Aviator has also halved in price, from 14/1 to 7/1…

I suspect that the market will swing back a little (in favour of Resolution Bay), before the race gets under way…

In the 4:25, Ballycross has usurped Sego Success at the head of the market.

I don’t find that too surprising – but we will have to wait until closer to the off, for confirmation of the fitness levels of the respective horses (the current suggestion is that Ballycross is straighter than Sego Success).

At Huntingdon, Royal Plaza has drifted to 4/1in the 2:00 race…

I find that a little surprising and would certainly be tempted by him, at that price…

The market is yet revealed anything in the bumper which closes the card (5:15).
Gibeno is favourite - but that was the case last night…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of meetings tomorrow: at Warwick and Huntingdon, with the former course providing the more interesting action…

In the opener (2:15), it looks highly significant that Barry Geraghty is over, for just the one ride - and on a horse who’s not raced for 18 months…
Provided Herewego Herewego remains strong in the betting (currently 5/2, best) - suggesting he is ready to run his race - then despite the absence, he is likely to take the beating…

There’s a potentially top class novice chaser running in the 3:20, in the shape of Sceau Royal.

He was sixth in last seasons Champion hurdle – and that’s form which non of his rivals can match…

He was also quickly into his stride last season, so I wouldn’t expect fitness to be an issue.

That said, at 1/2, I’ll be watching, rather than backing him…

The 2 most interesting races of the day, from a betting perspective, are 3:50 and 4:25…

Resolution Bay has been put in very short in the 3:50 (6/4) and I couldn’t be interested in him at that kind of price…

I’d be more inclined to take a risk on Tanarpino or Aviator, at much bigger prices…

There is a chance that Tanarpino is using this as a warm up, before returning to fences.

However, he ran really well on his seasonal debut 12 months ago (over fences) – and is the only runner at he course, for Jenny Candlish and Sean Quinlan.

He’s 9/1 tonight and I would expect the market to advise on his chance…

Aviator has only run once in the past 18 months, so is quite speculative.

However, provided he retains his ability, he’s not badly treated off a mark of 118.

He could be worth a small risk at 14/1…

Sego Success is more than capable of winning the 4:25 race – if primed to do so…

The bookies are taking no chances with a price of 9/4 this evening – but it’s arguably a fair price, provided he’s ready to run his race…

Second fav, Ballycross is the other one of major interest.

Again, you are taking a risk on his fitness (though most Nigel Twiston Davies runners are raring to go, at this time of year), but he has potential – and if you can get 5/1, that’s a fair bet.

At Huntingdon, I like the look of Royal Plaza, who is making his debut for Olly Murphy in the 2:00 race.

Formerly trained by Alan King, he always looked capable of being better than his current mark of 120.

He’s a 3/1 shot this evening, which doesn’t strike me as too bad a price (though it’s quite a competitive race)…

Finally, there are lots of potentially interesting horses running in the bumper which closes the card, at 5:00.

The market will doubtless advise on the likely outcome, with Cloud Hopper, Gibeno, Normal Norman, Cuckoos Calling, Queen Montoya and Shaella, all of potential interest, if backed…