Wednesday October 4th

Review

As is so often the case at this time of year (when fitness can only be guessed at), the market proved extremely prophetic…

In the 2:45, It’s a Game was a huge drifter (out to 25 on BF, at the off), suggesting that the run was badly needed.

And that’s exactly how he ran…

He travelled like a well handicapped horse – even touched 2.2 in-running – but ultimately tired and finished a well beaten third…

The expectation will be that he will improve hugely for the run – and therefore be of great interest next time.

That may be the case – but equally, first time back is often the best time to catch a horse, following a long break.
As with today, the market will doubtless guide…

Grand Coureur ran disappointingly in the same race.

He was well supported in the lead up to the race (into 6/1) – however in the crucial 5 mins prior to the off, he was relatively weak in the market (BSP 9.8).

Ultimately, he didn’t run very well – and with no obvious excuse…

The market weakness of It’s a Game in the 2:45, was surpassed by that of Abbotswood in the 3:50…

He was 3/1 last night – but was sent off at 18.5 on BF !

That is a monumental drift, by anyones standard – and illustrated the risks associated with supporting horses which are making their seasonal debut…

Like It’s a Game, he ran really well, considering – and only weakened out of third place, after jumping the last.

However, he was no match for the 2 others of interest in the race…

Cuirassier Dempire was solid throughout the day – and won as he liked.

He looked a horse capable of ranking much higher…

Anteros was also very solid in the market.

12/1 last night, his SP of 5/1 suggested a big run was expected - and that’s precisely what he delivered.

He was just unlucky to bump into a rival who had at least a stone in hand of his mark…

Lunchtime update

It’s a Sting and Grand Coureur, have both been backed in the 2:45 – but in the case of the former, not as much as I thought might have been the case…

I wouldn’t have been surprised to see the 14/1 of last night, 7/1 by now – however, 12/1 is still available in a couple of places…

If he’s going to win, then I expect him to be very well backed (less than 7/1 at the off).

I guess there is still time – though I would really have expected more support to have materialised by now…

I didn’t expect Grand Coureur to be as strongly supported – so a general trimming of 12/1 into 8/1, would count as decent support.

Provided he doesn’t drift prior to the off, I would expect him to run a big race….

Cuirassier Dempire has remained rock solid in the market for the 3:50.

9/4 feels a bit too short – but if he remains at that price, he is the most likely winner…

Abbotswood has drifted out to 11/2 in a few places and is maybe worth a small risk at those odds (he did look a bit too short in the market, last night).

Anteros has been well backed, into 8/1 - pretty much scuppering the EW angle with him...

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of very interesting looking novice handicap chases, on tomorrows Bangor card…

The first of them is off at 2:45 – and I like the look of 2 of the longer priced horses (well, they are longer prices this evening !).

It’s a Sting hasn’t run for nearly 600 days – and he hardly covered himself in glory when he was last on the track.

However, he finished behind some very useful horses in all of his novice hurdles – and was sent off 3/1 fav on his chasing debut in a decent contest at Stratford, 2 years ago.

He did nothing that day – but both his hurdles form and his price that day, suggest he is capable of being much better than his current lowly rating of 105…

Oliver Sherwood has an ability to bring back horses from a long absence – and he is Leighton Aspells only ride of the day.

He’s 14/1 this evening – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him heavily backed tomorrow…

The other one of interest, is Grand Coureur.
Again, he comes with risks, as he is making his chasing debut.
However, his best run over hurdles was also at Bangor - and on that form, he is attractively handicapped off a mark of 101.

Nick Williams has won with his 2 most recent 2 runners (so is in form) – and there is a chance this one can bring up the treble.

Again, 12/1 is an attractive price (which is unlikely to last !)

Things look a little more obvious in the other race of interest, at 3:50…

Anteros is an obvious route in – as we have very fond memories of him !

He’s well handicapped on a mark of 112 – and is likely to run his race. However, he may find a couple of younger, more progressive horses too good for him…

The 2 in question are Cuirassier Dempire and Abbotswood.

The former broke his duck over fences, last time at Worcester and looks the type to keep on improving.

Abbotswood makes his chasing debut tomorrow - but is an ex PTP winner, so could well improve for fences.

The issue, is the prices: with Cuirasser 9/4 fav – and Abbotswood a 10/3 shot.

Maybe they will drift tomorrow…

Anteros is more attractive at 12/1 (in a place) – and if all 8 make it to post, he would hold a fair bit of EW appeal, at that price.