Monday December 11th

Review 

The money never materialised for Leo Luna and he was sent off a 12/1 shot (nearly 14/1 on BF).

In fairness, he didn’t run badly – looking as if he would come on for the outing (which is effectively what the market was saying).

He could very easily win a similar race - but he is a horse who will be well backed before he does win…

Our Merlin dotted up in the next race on the card (2:45).

He was an easy winner last week, when I made him the Lunchtime Nap – but his victory was even more comprehensive today.

He looked completely different class to his rivals - and it will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to the performance (I wouldn’t be surprised to see him raised the best part of 20lb).

Finally, Bound Hill ran just the race I expected in the 3:15.

Jumping from fence to fence, he traded at almost even money before Le Couer Net fell – and as low as 1.3, once that rival had departed.

However, stamina is not his strong suit – and he couldn’t get home in the very heavy ground.

Hopefully one or two found a way to make him pay, regardless…

The meeting scheduled for Uttoxeter tomorrow has already been abandoned – and whilst racing may take place at Ayr  (there is an early morning inspection), it’s uninspiring stuff, so I’m taking the day off…

I’ll make a decision on Wednesday, at some point tomorrow (the fixtures for that day are also in doubt).

The deep mid-winter hey – who needs it ?!

Lunchtime Update

Swathes of non runners have made a bit of a nonsense of some of the races at Fontwell…

The 2:15 has not been affected – but there has been no support for Leo Luna and that tempers enthusiasm for his chances.

I guess the money might come late, but I think it will need to, if he’s going to win…

Our Merlin remains around even money for 2:45 – and that remains a fair price.

I think his chance of winning is similar to a coin toss…

The 3:15 has been decimated and now only 4 go to post.

The will greatly improve the chances of Bound Hill (and not just because he has less rival to beat !).

However, he’s now a 5/2 shot and I would be worried about both his jumping and his ability to get home.

He should still make a decent IR play though (I wouldn’t be surprised to see him trade odds on).

I’m just not feeling it with the Lunchtime Nap today – too much uncertainty.

It may be a similar story for the rest of the week – but if that is the case, then so be it. It’s a long old season, no need to force things…

Evening Preview 

It’s the first day of what could be a quiet week, racing wise, as the winter weather wreaks havoc with the planned fixtures…

Tomorrows meeting at Musselburgh has been lost to frost – leaving Fontwell as the sole surviving NH meeting.

They have put on a fair card, for a Monday – with a few reasonably interesting races…

The first of those is at 2:15, when Ramses de Teillee attempts to follow up his recent win at Chepstow.

He was massively impressive that day, on his first run over fences.

However the handicapper hasn’t missed him, as he’s been raised 15lb.

More than that, the tight turns of Fontwell are going to present a very different challenge to the galloping straights of Chepstow.
He may get away with it – but at 5/4 I’m inclined to look elsewhere…

Fergal Mael Duin is certainly an option – though I’m more attracted to Leo Luna.

He’s handicapped to win – and was declared for some better quality races over the weekend past.

He didn’t take up any of those engagements, so the fact he’s running at Fontwell on a Monday, may be significant.

If it is, he will be backed – so you can either take a risk and back him early (at 6/1) or wait to see if the support materialises (if it does, he’s likely to end up half that price !)…

Our Merlin makes a quick reappearance in the following race on the card (2:45).

He was a winning Lunchtime Nap, last week – and I’m not surprised to see connections getting him out under a penalty (as he’s likely to be raised more than the 7lb impost that he carries tomorrow).

Tomorrows race looks a little bit tougher than last weeks, as he faces 2 or 3 potentially interesting rivals.

Against that, he did dot up last week, suggesting he is very well handicapped.

He’s been put in this evening at around even money – which strikes me as the right kind of price.

I’ll make a call on him tomorrow lunchtime…

The third race of interest on the card, is the handicap chase at 3:15.

This looks relatively open, despite Stoical Patient having been installed quite a short priced favourite.

She definitely has a chance – but I’m not sure she should be as short as 2/1…

I’m more attracted to Mr Bachster at 7/1  - provided the ground is heavy (which I expect it to be).

He’s back down to his last winning mark – and a couple of runs this season, should have put him spot on.

I also quite like Bound Hill.
He should make a decent in-running play (as he tends to lead – and travel well) – assuming his jumping holds up (he can make the odd mistake).