Tuesday December 19th

Review 

Enjoy Responsibly ran really well at Fakenham – but could only finish a close up fourth.

Despite having won at the course, it looked a bit sharp for him – particularly over todays trip.

Popelys Gull ran even better – but didn’t quite manage to win (he finished second).

The race was won by favourite, Creep Desbois – who was even backed in to 6/5 !

All in all, it was a frustrating race – though the frustration was only with the result.

Creep Desbois had very little in hand of 3 of his rivals – and I even managed to pick out 2 of those.

Unfortunately, he did have a little in hand – and ultimately that got him home in front…

It was a similar story in the novice chase at Catterick – but with a different ending…

I felt there was little between the 4 runners (ultimately 3) – though it’s impossible to say whether I was right, as 2 of them fell at the fifth last, leaving Almazaar to come home alone…

I felt he was the value call in the race (assuming relatively quick ground).

In novice chases, you should never underestimate the element of ‘randomness’ (caused by jumping frailties)…

Tanarpino got very close to winning the handicap hurdle (traded at 1.13 in running), but was outstayed close home by Buckle Street.

Whilst Las Tunas did travel strongly in the handicap chase (touched 7.2 in running – having been available at around 20 at lunchtime and 15 at the off) – but a couple of poor jumps down the back straight, proved costly.

He briefly threatened to get back into things jumping the third last – but weakened from that point.

He could be of interest next, with the run under his belt…

Lunchtime Update

There is precious little warranting an update, on what is a very quiet day…

The meeting at Fakenham was given the go ahead – and Enjoy Responsibly can be backed at 9/1, in places.

He’s ‘value’ at that price – and Popelys Gull is still worth a saver, at a point bigger…

In the novice chase at Catterick, I still don’t think that there is as much between the 4 runners, as the market suggests…

Alzamaar is probably the best bet in the race, at 11/2 – though if it looks to be riding on the soft side, Shades of Midnight at 10/1 would be an excellent bet.

In the handicap hurdle at 1:50, Tanarpino remains at 6/1 shot.

I couldn’t go mad on him at that price – but it’s probably fair.

Finally, in the 2:50, Las Tunas is a friendless 20/1 shot.

He’s as likely to finish last, as he is to win – but he does have a chance of winning and he should travel nicely in the race.

There is nothing that I feel sufficiently strongly about today, to warrant putting the reputation of the Lunchtime Naps, on the line !

Enjoy Responsibly strikes me as just about the best bet of the day – but all of those mentioned, are more value suggestions, than strong fancies…

As an aside, I’ve created a page, which I will use to record the performance of the Lunchtime Naps.

I’ve been advising them for just over a month now, so it felt like a fair time to take stock of how they have been performing.

If you click on the link at the top of the column on the right, you will find the detail…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow: at Catterick and Fakenham – assuming the latter track survives an early morning precautionary inspection…

I’m disinclined to put a lot of time into meetings which may be lost to the weather, so I’ve only looked closely at one of the Fakenham races.

That’s the handicap chase at 1:40, in which Ceep Desbois, has been installed a very short priced favourite…

I can buy into him being favourite – but I’m not sure he’s a 6/4 shot.

The trouble is, these days, price seems less and less relevant – it’s all about finding the winner – and a better case can be made for him, than any of his rivals.

The case revolves around the fact that he’s relatively unexposed – and performed with credit in a better race than tomorrows, last time out, at Ascot.

On the flip side, Fakenham is a quirky track, so he’s not guaranteed to reproduce that form, there…

Rather than side with him, I’d be more inclined to take a risk on Enjoy Responsibly.

He proved that he can handle the course by hacking up on his seasonal debut, 2 runs ago.

Unfortunately for him the handicapper took exception to that and raised him by 15lb.

That may have been too much – as he was well beaten on his most recent run, at Bangor.

However that was over an additional 3 furlongs, so there is also the possibility that he didn’t stay the longer trip…

It’s not a strong race tomorrow, so at 7/1, he could be worth a risk.

Popelys Gull is the other one of interest – and he could also be worth a small saver….

The racing isn’t great over at Catterick – but at least it is likely to take place !

There is a decent Beginners chase at 1:20, in which all 4 runners can be given a chance.

There have been a couple of novice chases recently which I felt looked open – and which were won by a horse who has drifted to a silly price (Sceau Royal and Kalondra).

It’s certainly worth keeping an eye out for those kind of drifts (if possible) – as when the market takes against some of these horses, there is definitely ‘value’ to be had.

Unfortunately, the ground may be riding quick at Catterick – and that could be a good reason to oppose horses.

I could certainly fancy the outsider in this field: Shades of Midnight – but he is a horse who is at his best when there is significant cut in the ground.

Quick ground would probably suit Alzammar best – and he would be worthy of consideration, if his price drifted out to 6/1+…

In the following race on the card, I’m most interested in Tanarpino…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, when running a blinder over fences at Carlisle.

That was off a mark of 126 – so off a mark of 121 tomorrow, he is handicapped to win.

He’s running over hurdles now – but I’m not sure that will make a lot of difference.

He’s certainly performed reasonably over the smaller obstacles on his 3 runs so far this season.

He sports cheek pieces for the first time tomorrow, having run in snatches on his most recent outing.

It’s not a race you can be adamant about – but at 6/1, he looks a fair shout…

The final race of interest on the card, is the handicap chase at 2:50.

I turned this one round a few times – and came to the conclusion that there was no stand out candidate !

At a price, I might be inclined to take a small risk on Las Tunas.

He’s the youngest runner in the field – but has plenty of experience.

However, most of that was gained in his native France – with him only moving to the UK, 12 months ago.

He didn’t do too badly last season – but it can take some horses a little while to acclimatise and if that is the case with him, he may be able to move his form to a higher level, this campaign.

Clearly, he’s risky – as he’s also making his seasonal debut.
However, he tends to travel strongly in his races, so I suspect that if you back him pre-race, you should be able to lay him in running and get a free bet to find out whether he has improved over the summer !!