Wednesday December 6th

Review 

Sainte Ladylime unshipped Noel Fehily at Haydock – which was a bit irritating.

There was a question mark concerning her jumping – but Haydock is a relatively easy course to jump round, so I thought she would get away with it.

I was wrong…

I was right about Buster Thomas though.

He ran quite a nice race – but was well beaten when falling at the last.

There should be other days for him…

It was case of job done, with Granville Again…

His BSP was 19.35 – and he touched 7 in running, before his stamina gave out.

It’s good to remember that there are many ways to skin a cat…

Of course, the easiest way, is just backing to win – and those who did that with One for Harry, will be feeling suitably pleased…

As I said last night – with a straight bat, he was the most likely winner of the race.

In the circumstances, an SP of 5/1 (6/1 earlier), can be considered generous…

Over at Ludlow, Heavenly Promise fell before we could learn anything about him…

The mares hurdle went pretty much as expected, with Marias Benefit too good for Late Night Lily – and Midnight Jazz, well beaten.

The handicap chase also went generally as expected, with Audacious Plan coming home in front and thereby landing the third Lunchtime Nap of the week (yet another hurray !).

Crystal Lad also managed to get placed in the same race – so overall, it was a good result…

I’m sure you’ll all be disappointed to hear that there will be no blog tomorrow – and probably no blog on Friday either…

I’m off to Market Rasen tomorrow – so won’t have time to do it all justice.

Whilst on Friday, I’ll be preparing for another busy weekend…

Hopefully you’ve all done OK this week – it’s certainly been a fair bit better than last week !

All things being equal, I’ll be back blogging early next week.

Until then…

Lunchtime Update

Buster Thomas has been very well backed at Haydock – which is interesting, considering he appears to have quite a task, at the weights…

Sainte Ladylime has maintained her position in the market – and I still prefer her chances…

Granville Island is drifting nicely  in the handicap chase – the bigger the SP, the better, with him !

Obviously, I don’t know what price he will reach in running – but I would have thought something around 4. would be feasible…

In the finale, the 2 outsiders have received some support against  One for Harry – but not sufficient to really set alarm bells ringing.
Of course, there is still plenty of time for that – but I’m going to play it with a straight bat, and stick with Harry…

At Ludlow, Heavenly Promise is a major drifter - which isn’t a big surprise.

I’ll still be watching him very carefully …

Midnight Jazz is also a major drifter – which again, doesn’t surprise me.

There is too much for her to overcome today, for her to be well backed…

Finally, Audacious Plan isn’t as strong in the market as I expected.

I suspect that is partially because he was put in too short last night – and the value seekers are looking to find one to beat him.

I think he was backed late, last time – and that could easily be the case again today.

I still make him by far the most likely winner – and 5/2 is a fair price…

There are 3 possibles for todays Lunchtime Nap: Sainte Ladylime, One for Harry and Audacious Plan.

I think Harry is the best bet, at 6/1 – however, I think Audacious Plan is the likeliest of the 3, to win…

Lunchtime Nap: Audacious Plan 2:05 Ludlow (Fair price 5/2) 

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings again tomorrow; at Haydock and Ludlow.

And as with today, they are reasonable meetings, with a few interesting races at each…

There are even a couple of official TVB eye catchers running – so definitely something to look out for !

The first of them is Buster Thomas, who runs at Haydock, in the novice chase at 1:20.

He caught my eye last time at Exeter, when travelling strongly and jumping well – until making a mistake and running out of gas !

I like the fact he is dropping back in trip tomorrow – and I think Haydock will suit him.

However, he is contesting a conditions race – and isn’t favoured by the conditions ! (I would have preferred to see him in a handicap).

Also, he is likely to have competition for the lead, from Robin of Locksley.

He may be able to overcome the second issue – but I’m not so sure about him overcoming the first…

He has to give 2lb to Saint Ladylime – yet she is rated 2lb superior to him.

Couple that with the likelihood of the race being run to suit her better – and he becomes difficult to side with.

I think Saint Ladylime is the most likely winner – though a case could be made for most of the runners…

Just Georgie looks the most likely winner of the 2:25 – but she’s already favourite and it’s a tight handicap.

I’d probably be more inclined to back and lay, Granville Again…

He may not have the stamina to get home – but he’s a traveller, so could well trade quite short in running.

I could be quite keen on One for Harry is the finale – though I’ve not completely decided yet !

Part of the reason is because I think the 2 market leaders are vulnerable, off career high marks on the back of last time out wins.

He, on the other hand, is on his last winning mark – and dropping down in grade.

Its’afreebee and Aniknam, both look as if they could have physical issues (though both are dangerously well handicapped if they are right): Whist Quids in and Iolani have plenty to prove (but scope for improvement)…

There is no doubt that One for Harry is the solid option – I would just be fearful if one of the outsiders was particularly well backed…

Over at Ludlow, at quick mention for Heavenly Promise, who contests the novice handicap chase at 1:00.

He’s 5lb wrong in the weights – and has little form to recommend him – but he’s bred to be different class to today’s rivals and it’s still early days…

Again, the market may advise with him (though it may not !)

I can’t figure out the mares hurdle at 1:30.
Midnight Jazz is probably he best horse in the race – but she’s small, to be carrying top weight – particularly on her seasonal debut.

Marias Benefit may be the answer – but she’s an inexperienced novice and so difficult to assess.

Late Night Lily sets the standard – but probably won’t be quite good enough…

A watching race, I think !

Crystal Lad is the second eye catcher running on the afternoon, in the 2:05 race.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Plumpton, before disappointing last time at Sandown.

His jumping was the issue that day – and Ludlow is an easier course to jump round.

That said, it’s layout is similar to Sandown - and I’m not sure that’s ideal for him.

Also, he is stepping up markedly in trip – and whilst that may suit him. it may not…

To be honest, it could all be immaterial because I suspect Audacious Plan is going to take some beating.

He had been installed ante post favourite for a big race at Sandown on Saturday – so the fact he is running at Ludlow instead seems highly significant.

He is also the only ride on the day for Brian Hughes (subtle signs !).

More than all that, he still looks handicapped to win.
He won last time out at Sedgefield – but arguably that was as stronger race than tomorrows – and he’s only 5lb higher.

The issue will be the price. He was backed into 6/4 last time – and I can see the same thing happening tomorrow…

In terms of rivals, then aside from Crystal Lad (who may be capable of placing), only Dueling Banjos and Moss on the Mill, look as if they have much chance of spoiling the party…