Review
For the third time in 10 days, Our Merlin absolutely bolted
up.
He ran off a mark of 103 today – and a 15 length win,
suggests he could be competitive from around 120.
I get a similar impression from just watching him, so it
will be fascinating to see how far he does progress.
That said, he’s apparently going to be given a bit of a rest
now, so it could be a few weeks before we next get sight of him…
Here’s Herbie was the best backed of the 3 outsiders of
interest, in the 2:10 – and he ran a decent race to finish fourth.
He’s could certainly be of interest next time…
Top Notch was a comfortable winner of the Peterborough
Chase.
It’s hard not to be taken by the horse – as he’s quite
small, but a real trier.
Finally, Dream Bolt provided the blog with its fourth
consecutive winning Lunchtime Nap.
He looked quite obvious to me – and whilst it’s arguable
that Couer Tantre threw the race away, Dream Bolt was still there to take advantaged
of that ones slightly wayward tendencies.
In a 6 horse race, I’m not sure how he was sent off at 6/1 –
but I’ll take it, all the same 😀
It’s been another short week on the blog, but with racing at
Cheltenham tomorrow, my attention will now switch to the Main service.
I would expect to be blogging on at least a couple of days
next week – so make sure you tune in to see if the winning run of the Lunchtime
Naps can continue !!
Lunchtime Update
There’s not a great deal to update on, from Taunton…
Overnight rain has changed the going slightly, and it’s now
soft – good to soft in places and this has resulted in a few non runners…
In the 1:35, Our Merlin has been very strong in the market –
and is now a 6/4 shot.
For those preferring a bigger price, Whin Park remains the
best alternative, at 12/1…
Non of the 3 outsiders of potential interest (Here’s Herbie,
Justification and Caviar Dallen) have been backed in the 2:10 – making them
less interesting !
Molineaux has been backed – but probably because Andy
Holding has tipped him.
Maybe the market will reveal more, closer to the off…
Top Notch remains a 2/5 shot – and remains the most likely
winner of the Peterborough chase.
Ptit Zig has been supported against him – and that’s
something I would keep an eye on…
Finally, Workbench and Notarfbad have been taken out of the
3:15 – and Dream Bolts priced has contracted as a consequence.
That’s a shame, as I was more than happy to take on both of
them.
Dram Bolt still look s the best bet on the card however –
and is therefore the Lunchtime Nap.
Lunchtime Nap: Dream Bolt 3:15 Taunton (Fair Price 5/1)
Evening Preview
After the brief, weather enforced hiatus, NH racing is back
tomorrow…
There are 4 meetings scheduled: at Taunton, Warwick and
Newcastle in the UK – plus Tramore in Ireland.
Both Warwick and Newcastle need to survive early morning
inspections – and if they do, the ground is likely to be desperate at both
tracks…
Regardless, the days best racing takes place at Taunton –
and whilst the current ‘good to soft’ ground may ease a little before racing
starts, it shouldn’t get any worse than ‘soft’…
The first race of interest, is the 1:35 – and this sees the
third appearance in 10 days of Our Merlin…
He was a winning Lunchtime nap, a week last Monday: and
followed up under a penalty, 3 days ago…
Following his first win, the official assessor raised his mark
17lb – and he will be in for a further rise, after his latest victory.
In the circumstances, it’s not surprising that connections
are choosing to run him again – even under a 14lb penalty.
Clearly he is very difficult to assess – both because of the
ease of his victories – and because it’s impossible to know if the recent races
have left a mark.
From a pure handicapping perspective, he should win (nothing
else in the field will be as far ahead of its mark) – so arguably 2/1 is not a
bad price…
The other interesting aspect about the race, is that most of
his main challengers contested a race run last month, over tomorrows course,
won by Tobacco Road.
If Our Merlin can cope with Tobacco Road, he can probably
handle the others from that race…
The only other dangers I can see, are Master Vintage and
Whin Park.
The latter, in particular, looks a decent bet at 16/1 – and
could prove to be the one that Our Merlin has to fear most…
The 2:10 features an official TVB eye catcher in the shape
of Quarenta.
However, connections appear to be working on his handicap
mark – so unless he is subject to significant support, I would be inclined to
leave him alone.
In truth, it’s a hard race to call.
Of the market leaders, I like the chances of Molineaux best
– but 4/1 is too tight, in such an open contest.
If I were to get involved with the race, I’d be more
inclined to take a risk on an outsider.
Here’s Herbie, Justification and Caviar Dallen, can all be
backed at 25/1+ this evening – and a case of sorts can be made for each of
them.
Any support for them tomorrow, would add to their
attraction…
The days main event, is the re-scheduled Peterborough Chase
– and it’s no surprise to see Top Notch installed a very short priced favourite
(2/5).
He was impressive last time at Ascot, in a better race - and
is certainly the most likely winner tomorrow.
2/5 feels a bit short, when both Ptit Zig and Josses Hill
have theoretical chances of beating him.
That said, he’ll probably win…
The handicap chase at 3:15 may provide the best betting
opportunity of the day…
Dream Bolt is a horse I like – and he’s a horse who tends to
be at his best, on his first 2 races after a break…
His most recent run was at Newbury, 12 days ago – after 5
months off the track.
That was in a better race than tomorrows - and he ran really
well to finish fourth.
The handicapper has dropped him a pound for the run – and
James Bowen takes over in the saddle, claiming 5lb…
I think he can win tomorrow – and 8/1 is a good price.
Blanford Gunner is sufficiently well handicapped to be a
danger – so it is probably worth saving stakes on him.
Great week, well done pal
ReplyDelete