Tuesday December 5th

Review 

There was plenty of woodwork rattling at Southwell, with Ronnie Lawson, Bad Boy du Pouldu and Raz de Maree, all finishing second…

There can be little doubt that Ronnie Lawson was meant to win the opener.
Backed in to 2/1 at the off, Dickie tried to make every post a winning one and was only caught after jumping the last…

My reading of the novice handicap chase was spot on, with the 3 confirmed front runners, doing each other, no favours…

That played perfectly in to the hands of Bad boy du Pouldu – but Nightfly pounced even later, and took the spoils.

Raz de Maree bumped into one in the handicap hurdle.

Red Rising did have that kind of profile – and whilst he could have been backed at 9/2 last night, his SP of 9/4 suggested someone meant business.

He was made to fight for his win by Bobo Mac – but I still think he would have won even if that one hadn’t taken a fall at the second last. I suspect he will be able to handle a step up in grade...

At Lingfield, Clayton landed the second successive Lunchtime Nap (hurray, again !).

It was a straight battle between him and Sea Wall, all the way up the straight – and he was just strong enough to prevail.

Finally, Allthegear no Idea didn’t show much in the veterans chase.

The finish was fought out by the 3 greys in the field – which made for quite a sight (particularly in December  - if you are that way inclined !).

Lunchtime Update

There have been some very interesting market moves in the first 2 races at Southwell…

In the opener, Ronnie Lawson has been well backed (into 9/4) – and usurped Irish Octave at the head of the market.

The race looks to be between the 2 of them – and Irish Octave is now quite tempting, at 11/4…

Castletown has been really well backed in the 12:50.

The interesting thing with him is that a pace war will suit.

I think the money could be significant (which isn’t always the case with morning gambles).

There’s not much to report in the 1:50: with Skipthecuddles and Raz de Maree just trimmed the mandatory point or two…

At Lingfield, there has been money for Dinsdale in the 2:30, which I didn’t foresee…

His chance doesn’t look that obvious…

Whilst not much of interest, betting-wise, has occurred in the market for the veterans chase.

I’m very tempted by Irish Octave as the Lunchtime Nap, as I think the market has probably over-reacted to the possibility of Ronnie Lawson.

However, I’m going to stick with my original plan and suggest Clayton – despite the support for Dinsdale.

Lunchtime Nap: Clayton Lingfield 2:30 (Fair Price 7/2) 

Evening Preview 

The are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow: at Southwell and Lingfield – and the quality of the racing takes a surprising step upwards…

In fact, the Southwell card is as good as I can recall seeing there – with 2 or 3 very decent races…

The opening contest (12:20) isn’t the best - but it might be the easiest to work out !

Irish Octave is the obvious  one, chasing a 4 timer – but I think he could be vulnerable…

The trouble is, he has little to beat – except perhaps for Ronnie Lawson…

He’s an ex PTP winner, who has acquired a handicap mark over hurdles – and now switches to fences.

He could easily be well handicapped over fences – and if he is, he’s likely to win.

4/1 tonight is a fair price, for the risk…

The 12:50 is a really good race – a fair bit better than you normally see at Southwell.

There are 4 or 5 potentially decent novice chasers up against each other – so it will take a bit of winning.

I have a feeling that tactics could be crucial – as the top 3 in the market all won last time, from the front.

More than that, I suspect all 3 need to lead, to be seen at their best…

We saw at Newbury on Friday, that such a situation can be overcome – but Newbury is a much wider course than Southwell – and I think there will be issues tomorrow.

In the circumstances, I can’t be with Eyesopenwideawake (who I think will lead), Get Rhythm or Cracking Find.

Instead, I’ll side with Bad boy du Pouldu.

He was beaten by Eyeopenwideawake, last time – but may be able to reverse the form tomorrow, if the race unfolds as I expect…

There’s another really good race at 1:50 – and Raz de Maree is a bizarre runner in it…

He’s an Irish trained 3 mile chaser, who likes the mud: so what he’s doing in the UK over hurdles on decent ground, is anyones guess !

He’s well handicapped though – which makes him potentially dangerous…

Ignoring him (!) I like Skipthecuddles best – but there are 4 or 5 others who could also be of interest, in the race…

Things aren’t quite so competitive at Lingfield…

Superficially, Sea Wall looks the one to be with him the 2:30 – but it also looks to me as if he’s handicapped to the limit of his ability…

He may get away with it if non of his rivals are well handicapped – but if they are, he’s beatable…

Looking through the runners, his most dangerous opponent seems to be Clayton.

He is potentially well handicapped  - if he can refind his form.

I thought there was plenty of promise in his most recent run at Fontwell and he could prove too hot for Sea Wall…

Finally, there’s a veterans chase at 3:00 (2 in 3 days – and I though it was still 3 weeks to Christmas !).

This is a slightly odd one however, in that most of the runners look past it (not putting it too politely !).

The exception is Allthegear no Idea – but, bizarrely, he’s still a maiden over fences…

He may be able to change that situation tomorrow – though it does look a slightly dangerous race to be betting in…