Friday February 23rd

Lunchtime Update

I’m having lunch early today, as I want to get finished with todays racing before I move on to tomorrow.

Win, lose or draw, there will be no Review his evening – so it will be next week before I’m back on the blog (weather permitting !)

Socksy can still be backed at 11/4 in the 3:00 at Warwick.

Nothing has been strongly backed against her.

If she improves – even just slightly – on her last time out effort, I think she will take a bit of beating…

Calipto has been the one for money in the 3:30 – and that’s understandable.

As I said last night, he is more than capable of winning (and also, of not completing !).

Cobra de Mai is on the drift – and would become interesting at 5/1+: whilst Drumlee Sunset is still worth a small play, at around 8/1…

Surtee du Berlais has been well supported at Exeter – and is now in to a best price of 8/1.

I’m not sure what to make of that...
We could have been responsible (it’s unlikely to take much, in such a fragile market) – but equally, she may have been tipped up elsewhere – or just fancied by connections !

Market movements close to the off may be informative: though with a level bat, I still think there is a bit of margin in the current price.

Shotgun Paddy has been well backed in the 4:50 – but I won’t be joining in with that particular gamble.

Spookdooky can still be backed at 14/1 – and that is far more appealing.

I guess there was a chance that I might choose Surtee du Berlais as the Lunchtime Nap today – even though her price is much bigger than I normally go for…

I’m sure you’ve all picked up that I think she has a big chance – but that’s mainly on the assumption that Coo Star Sivola won’t be at his best.

If he handles the trip/ground then he will be a tough one to beat…

I don’t have many reservations about Socksy, whom I just think will take a lot of beating !

Lunchtime Nap: Socksy 3:00 Warwick (Fair Price 11/4)

Evening Preview 

There are just a couple of NH meetings tomorrow: at Exeter and Warwick.

As you are probably aware, I prefer not to get involved with the racing on a Friday, as I would rather use the day preparing for the weekend ahead.

However, there are some really good races tomorrow – so much so, that I felt obliged to offer my opinion !

The first race of interest, is this mares handicap chase at Warwick (3:00).

It’s possible to make a case for most of the runners – but despite that, I’m pretty keen on Socksy…

She won on her chasing debut at Ayr in November; and followed that up by running well behind Another Venture in a decent race at Chepstow in January.

The interesting thing about that run, was that it occurred when Fergal O’Brien’s horses were out of form.

He’s now back in form – so I would expect her to put up a better performance.

If she does, then despite there being a few potential dangers in the race, I think she’ll win.

She’s 3/1 in a place tonight – and anything above 5/2 tomorrow, is probably a fair bet…

The following race on the card (3:30) is the most valuable of the day – and also looks quite open.

There are a few in it, who are potentially well handicapped – but Warwick is a tricky course to jump round.

Calipto and Drumlee Sunset are both capable of winning – and also, of not completing !

Cobra de Mai will almost certainly run a big race – and is probably the one to beat.

At the prices on offer this evening, I would take a chance on Drumlee Sunset at 8/1 – but that might change tomorrow, when we can actually place a bet !

Over at Exeter, there is an eye catcher running in the 4:15 race – and I’m quite excited about her !

Surtee de Beralis reminds me of Tanit River, who was a winning eye catcher at Sandown last Friday.

She’s the outsider of the field, at 14/1 – but I’m sure her chances are much better than that…

She’s potentially very well handicapped – and showed definite promise last time at Chepstow (in the same race as Socksy).

It helps her case that I don’t really fancy the favourite, Coo Star Sivola.

He’s stepping down in grade, and is potentially well handicapped – but I’m far from convinced that he wants 3 miles in the Exeter mud (assuming that’s what he will get !).

I’d be more fearful of Ice Cool Champs – but he wouldn’t put me off Surtee de Berlais…

The final race of interest, is the Devon National at 4:50.

This looks really open – and I won’t be overly surprised, whatever wins…

At the very early prices, I liked Yanmare – but the 16/1 has already halved - though you’ll doubtless be able to get 16/1 about him in running at some point ! (he tends to get outpaced, before staying on late).

Thomas Patrick is a probably the right favourite – though it’s a big ask for a young, inexperienced horse.

The one I like most now, is Spookydooky.

He was favourite when third in the corresponding race 12 months ago – and runs from the same mark tomorrow.

He can be backed at 16/1 this evening – but I doubt very much he’ll be that price come the off !