Thursday February 8th

Review 

Dell Oro ran well at Huntington this afternoon – but wasn’t quite good enough to go with Vinndication and Western Ryder, when the pace quickened, and he could ultimately only finish fourth.

The winner looked a very useful prospect – and I suspect there was little shame for Dell Oro in defeat.

I’m sure he’ll be up to winning races in due course.

Kaddys Dream also ran a fair race in the opener.
In fact, she looked to have it won, when she kicked for home rounding the final turn.

However, she’d either been asked for her effort too soon - or she has a physical issue - because she didn’t get home (which is what happened on her previous run).

It’ll be interesting to see whether a ‘w’ appears next to her name the next time she runs (signifying a wind operation)…

I was a little concerned as to whether Midnight Target would have sufficient stamina to get home in the 1:45 – but I needn’t have worried.

I would have been tempted to take a chance and nap her regardless – if I could have got a price at Lunchtime.

However, she was a 13/8 shot at that point.

By the off, she had drifted to 3/1 (presumably on account of worries about the trip) – which was a little irritating (unless of course you had backed her – and with BOG !).

She laughed at any stamina concerns – powering home in a manner which suggested a step up in trip was exactly what she needed !

Over at Doncaster, Buster Thomas was badly impeded by a medley at the first fence  – and in the circumstances did well to still be in with a chance, turning for home.

However, he had no more to give, up the straight – and ultimately finished well beaten.

Good man Vinnie had no such excuses – and was simply well beaten…

Clondaw Native also ran a fair race in the 3:30 – but was no match to Gunfleet (which I anticipated) and Nautical Nitwit (which I didn’t !).

In the same race, Fingerontheswitch also ran quite well to finish fourth – without appearing unlucky, in any way…

Finally, Red Indian wasn’t good enough to get the better of Brillare Momento, at Towcester.

I suggested Brillare Momento for a race at Ludlow yesterday – but she was re-routed to Towcester when that meeting was abandoned.

There is no reason to think that Red Indian didn’t run his race, which suggests that Brillare Momento put in a much improved effort (which was always a possibility, following a breathing operation).

I did really fancy Red Indian and wasn’t surprised to see him backed in to odds on – but as I’ve said a few times recently, you do need something in the price to warrant a risk and it simply wasn’t there…

That’s it for another week on the blog !

There are a couple of half reasonable meetings tomorrow – but my focus will be switching to another big weekend ahead.

Furthermore, I won’t be back on the blog before the middle of next week, as I’m away for a couple of days at the beginning of the week.

At least it felt like there were a few shoots of improvement, in the air today - which will hopefully grow a little more, next week…!

  

Lunchtime Update

Most of the horses that I was interested in last night, have been backed this morning – which makes finding ‘value’ very hard…

One that hasn’t is Dell Oro, in the big race at Huntingdon – and he is still worth a small play at 20/1.

In the opener on the card, Kaddys Dream has been backed in from 5/1 to 4/1 – and that price looks quite tight.

In the 1:45, Midnight Target was 2/1 last night – but is 13/8 now…

She’s a tough one, as based on form, she should win – but there are a couple of issues with the track and the trip.

It’s therefore not easy to accept such a short price…

I’m a bit suspired by how well backed Buster Thomas has been in the Doncaster opener.

He was 10/1 last night – but is just 13/2 now.

In the same race, Good man Vinnie has been backed in from 14/1 to 9/1 (which does seem closer to the mark)…

Fingerontheswitch is another who has been surprisingly well backed (12/1 into 7/1) – and maybe that explains in part, the slight drift on Clondaw Native (out to 7/2, from 10/3).

Finally, at Towcester, Red Indian has proved very popular.

He was 2/1 last night – but is a general even money shot now.

The defection of Lady Karina is a factor in that – but he’s still been very well backed…

I had planned to make Red Indian the Lunchtime Nap – but a price of Even money leaves little margin for error.

All things being equal I think he will win – but you do need a margin in the price (and I’m not sure there is now one in his).

Similarly, Midnight Target has been backed into the point, where there is insufficient in the price to justify the risk.

The only other one worthy of consideration is Clondaw Native – but he faces strong opposition in the shape of Gunfleet – whilst the money for Fingerontheswtich could also be significant…

On balance then, I don’t think there is anything worthy of napping at the prices available at Lunchtime (hopefully one or two of you were able to secure better prices, earlier in the day).

Evening Preview 

There are 4 NH meetings scheduled for tomorrow: at Huntingdon, Doncaster and Towcester in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

Fingers crossed, it looks as if all 4 will take place – and there is some reasonable racing, as well…

The best of the action takes place at Huntington, where the high-light is the Listed Sydney bank memorial hurdle (2:15).

This looks a really open race – which I wouldn’t be surprised to see won by any of the 6 runners…

Consequently, Dell Oro has to be the one of most interest, as he is outsider of the field, at 20/1.

He’s clearly well thought of – and has reasonable form – so at that price, has to be worth a small play…

In the opener on the card (1:15), I quite like the look of Kaddys Dream.

The stable of Robin Dickin has been in really good form, recently – and the horse should be at a peak, on its third run after a long absence.

The drop in trip is a slight concern – but odds of 5/1 compensate for that…

Favourite, Midnight Target is the one of interest in the following race (1:45).

She was an intended runner at Ludlow today – but has been re-routed following the abandonment of that meeting.

The new venue is a slight concern (she has lots of form at Ludlow), as is the step up to 3 miles.

However, she is potentially very well handicapped – provided she copes with those 2 things…

There are a couple of eye catchers who will be drinking at the ‘last chance saloon’ on the Doncaster card…

The first is Buster Thomas, in the opening contest (1:55).
He caught the eye 3 runs ago at Exeter – but hasn’t performed as well on his 2 subsequent outings.

In fairness, both of those runs were on very heavy ground – which he may not have handled.

A first time tongue tie, suggests breathing issues – and if it does the trick, then he must have a very good chance from a mark 7lb lower than at Exeter.

The other one that catches my eye in the race, is Good Man Vinnie.

He still has plenty of untapped potential as a chaser – and 14/1 is a fair price about his chances…

Fingerontheswitch is the other eye catcher running on the card.

He contests the handicap hurdle at 3:30 – and whilst the quicker ground could also see him running better than he has done recently, he faces some tough opposition…

Clandaw Native and Gunfleet are both unexposed novices who get into this race off reasonable marks.

The form of the latters recent win at Ascot appears strong – and he looks the one to beat, with 10/3 a fair enough price…

Finally, there is a decent handicap hurdle, taking place at Towcester, at 2:55.

It seems significant that Ben Pauling has chosen this race for Red Indian, from a variety of options.

The recent form of the Pauling yard has been a concern – but his last 4 horses have all won, which suggests things can’t be too dire !

Admittedly they were all at short prices – and his comeback will be better tested today, when he saddles a few less fancied runners.

Red Indian is relatively well fancied – but his last time out third place in the Lanzarote is much stronger form than you normally get at Towcester.

Lady Karina and Brillare Momento are worthy opponents – but I doubt they’ll be up to beating Red Indian – assuming Paulings horses are back in top form…