Wednesday February 21st

Review 

One of the things that puts me off tipping during the mid week, is the predictive power of the markets !

So often, horses are backed (or drift !) to what should be crazy prices - if viewed in conventional terms.

And yet, more often than not, the markets are spot on – and the horses run precisely as they suggest.

It’s almost as if someone knows..!!

Today, there were numerous fine examples of the market predicting the outcome of races: starting with the veterans chase at Doncaster…

On the first show last night, Band of Blood was installed a 5/2 favourite.

In some respects, that was understandable – as he was ‘well in’ following his last time out win.
However, there were also plenty of reasons to oppose him (in conventional terms).

I therefore wasn’t surprised to see him drift this morning – and he was 4/1 on BF at lunchtime.

I saw him touch 11/2 at one point (he may have got even bigger) - however, come the off, he was just 2/1 !

It must have taken a huge amount of money to force his price down to that point – and it clearly came from people in the know.

If ‘form students’ had been backing him, he never would have drifted…

In the race, he did briefly look in trouble, when Sego Success kicked for home, having jumped the third last. However, as that one tired, Band of Blood moved in to over-drive and powered home for a comfortable win.

I suspect there are some happy connections this evening !

Earlier on the Doncaster card, Buckle Street was another very well backed winner.

He was 7/1 early – but come the off he had been backed in to 4/1 favouritism (usurping original favourite, Duke Debarry, who drifted from 4/1 to 8/1).

In the race, Buckle Street was under pressure form before the home straight - but he kept on finding and eventually got the better of Tanarpino – and then managed to hold off Classic Ben.

The latter ran a good race – and looked the most talented horse in the race.
I just fear his attitude may not match his ability…

At Ludlow, Goohar, was another who was very well backed – and somehow found a way to win…

He was 11/1 last night when I first mentioned him; 6/1 at lunchtime – and 3/1 at the off !

If the race had been delayed half an hour, then the way his price was shortening, he would probably have gone odds on !

Again, he didn’t look likely to win for much of the race – but his tenacity saw him home in front.

Finally at Punchestown, Eagle Lion was the horse of major interest in the Pertemps qualifier.

He was put in short last night (9/4) – but looked very solid in the market at lunchtime.

However, 5 mins before the off, he could be backed at 8/1 on BF !

There was some late money for him – but the massive drift clearly told the story, as he was pulled up…

The moral of the stories: in these midweek races, the money is often far more predictive than the form book – but then I guess you already suspected that, didn’t you ?!?!

Lunchtime Update 

Maybe not too surprisingly, Band of Blood is a drifter in the veterans chase at Doncaster.

He was 5/2 last night – but can now be backed (or layed !) at 4/1+ on BF.

Segos Success, Carloes Destrier and Ballynagour, are all solid in the market.

I’ll probably look to dutch them on BF, rather than lay Band of Blood…

Duke Debarry is also quite weak in the market, in the 2:50 race (now 5/1).

Classic Ben and Ballycrystal Court are solid enough.

9/1 on the former is probably a reasonable bet…

Over at Ludlow, Goohar has been hammered in the betting in the 3:30.
He was 11/1 in a couple of places last night – but you now can’t beat 6/1.

I’m not overly surprised – and I’m pretty sure he will be primed to run his race.

In the same race, Federici has also been well backed.
He was 5/1 last night – but is now 7/2.

It’s no longer easy to spot the value in the contest..!

At Punchestown, Eagle Lion has remained very solid in the 4:45.

He was 9/4 last night – and that is still the price.

He’s definitely the one to beat…

That said, Delta Work has also been well supported (8/1 into 11/2) – and I suspect that Eagle Lion will need to put up a decent performance, if he is to win…

As I said yesterday, I’m keen to press on with the Luncthime Naps – but unfortunately, there is nothing suitable today…

I could take a speculative swipe at Sego Success – or Classic Ben – but neither are really Nap material.

Eagle Lion could be – but we are guessing on his ability, and he is prioced up too short, because of his connections.

Consequently, it has to be a day for watching – with maybe a few small bets, to help maintain the interest !

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Doncaster and Ludlow in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

All 3 tracks host a decent race – or two: I just need to remain mindful of the likely quicker ground 😊

The feature race on the Doncaster card, is Leg 2 of the Veterans chase (3:20).

Regular readers will know that I love my veterans chases – and this is a very nice example…

Band of Blood heads the market, following his romp at Exeter, 10 days ago.

That’s understandable – but I’m not sure I would want to take a short price about him…

For a start, it was his first race in over 600 days – so there must be the possibility that he will ‘bounce’.

That’s particularly true, because the race was run on desperate ground - and whilst he didn’t appear to have a hard race, I suspect he did…

He would also have been far better suited to that slog in the mud, than he will be to racing around Doncaster.

I’m not saying he can’t win – just that at 5/2, I would have to take him on…

The 3 of prime interest, are Ballynagour, Sego Success and Carole’s Destrier.

All 3 will be well suited to conditions – and are feasibly handicapped.

I think Sego Success is just about the most interesting of the trio.

He’s won over course and distance – and I suspect he’s been targeted at this race.

7/1 is a fair price.

The other race of major interest on the Doncaster card, is the preceding handicap hurdle at 2:50.

Duke Debarry has been installed 4/1 favourite – and he certainly has a chance.

That said, his chance doesn’t look that much better than quite a few of his rivals…

It’s an open looking contest – but Classic Ben at 10/1 and Ballycrystal Court at 14/1, appear better value.

Both are completely unexposed – and whilst they may not be up to the task, at least you are getting a price to find out !

The best race on the Ludlow card, is the amateur riders chase, at 3:30.

Federici has run really well in a couple of top class handicaps this season - and if he can reproduce that form, he should win.

Unfortunately, he’s not guaranteed to do so…

Goohar is also quite unreliable – but he ran well last time, over tomorrows course.

Henry Daly is in very good form – and tends to have his horses primed to run at his local track.

11/1 about Goohar seems like a decent price…

The most interesting race on the Punchestown card, is the Pertemps qualifier, which is off at 4:45.

All eyes will be on Eagle Lion, as he represents the same connections that have won the past 2 finals of the series.

Unfortunately, because of that, he’s likely to be sent off a very short price – and therefore can’t be a betting proposition.

In theory, he is one who should really be opposed (from a value perspective) – however, it’s not easy to figure out who best to oppose him with…

Delta Work and Hareth are 2 of the likelier types in the race – though I couldn’t feel overly confident about either.

I also couldn’t feel confident about Velocity Boy.

He was an eye catcher, when he last ran – 3 months ago ! 

That was over fences and he was an eye catcher, with a view to him running again over fences, relatively soon ! (and ideally over shorter).
It looks to me as if he’s probably running in this, to get some fitness before tackling a more suitable race, back over fences.