Tuesday February 20th

Review 

It was a really poor afternoon, with non of the horses of interest winning – and few even featuring…

The ground at both Taunton and Wetherby was quicker than I expected – and that was undoubtedly a factor; however, I think the lack of continuity over the past few weeks, also had a big bearing…

It was clearly a bad day to bring back the Lunchtime Nap – and Northandsouth was never put into the opening race on the Wetherby card.

He’s a quirky individual – but it was still a disappointing effort.

The flat runs of Pistol Park and Vengeur de Guye in the 3:35 – and the win of Dresden – suggested that the ground probably wasn’t heavy.

It’s always hard to get a feel for the going at this time of the year, as it can significantly change from day to day (and course to course).

San Pietro and Luna Flow were also both disappointing – particularly as they were relatively well backed…

Things were no better at Taunton…

Will o’the West put in another shoddy round of jumping in the 3:10.

I suspect he’ll be back over hurdles, sooner rather than later.

In the same race, Speedalong jumped better - but simply wasn’t good enough.

Caid du Lin and Black Mischief at least performed with some credit in the 3:45 – though neither was a match for Unison (whom I’d expected the ground to be too soft for).

Finally, Jayo Time continued to drift – presumably on account of the ground – and never featured in the 4:15 race.

I’m not sure I’ve had a worse day on the blog, all season !

At least on the positive side, things should be better tomorrow…!!

Lunchtime Update

Will o’the West has been backed in to 8/1 in the 3:10 at Taunton, with Speedalong drifting to 11/1.

I don’t really understand the drift on the latter, as I can see no reason why he won’t run his race.

He’s worth a small play at those kind of odds…

In the following race, Black Mischief has been backed into 3/1 favouritism, which doesn’t really surprise me.

He has the right profile – the issue is simply the ground…

In the same race, Caid du Lin has also been backed – but 4/1 on him looks short enough…

Jayo Time is surprisingly weak in the betting for the 4:15 and can now be backed at 5/1.

He’s definitely worth chancing at that price.

Over at Wetherby, Northandsouth is another one who is surprisingly weak, in the opener.

I can only think that it’s because he’s not being ridden by Bryony Frost (so is effectively 3lb higher).

7/2 on him is a decent price…

Pistol Park is now a 5/2 shot in the betting for the 3:35.

If feels too tight – but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s not !

Vengeur de Guye is still a 15/2 shot and splitting stakes across the pair is a fair strategy.

I might deploy the same strategy in the 4:40 – in which Lunar Flow is a 3/1 shot and San Pietro 7/1…

I’m keen to get the Lunchtime Naps up and running again.

The weather has prevented me from having many strong opinions recently – but the fields and races have stood up pretty well today.

That said, I don’t feel as strongly about anything as I would really like – though I do think that Jayo Time and Northandsouth are the most likely winners of their respective races – and fair prices…

I think Northandsouth has the easier task of the pair, so I’m going to make him the Lunchtime Nap.

For those of you who can, he’s currently 9/2 on BF – and is definitely worth backing at that price.

Lunchtime Nap: Northandsouth 2:00 Wetherby (Fair price 7/2)

  

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Taunton and Wetherby in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

And they aren’t bad meetings either – for a Tuesday.

There’s even a Graded event at Clonmel – though it’s a novice hurdle, which would require a fair bit of guesswork, in order to solve !

There are some reasonable handicaps on both the Taunton and Wetherby cards however – giving hope that we might be on the way out of the woods (or more accurately, rain/frost !).

There’s even an eye catcher running at Taunton  - Invicta Lake in 3:10 race.

The only problem is, he was an eye catcher with a view to running in low grade races over hurdles – and this is a handicap chase…

In fairness, he didn’t do too badly on his most recent run – which was also over fences – but equally, he didn’t do enough to persuade me to side with him…

I’d be more inclined to take a risk of Will o’the West.

He is handicapped to win – and Henry Daly couldn’t be in better form.

On the flip side, the horse hasn’t exactly taken to fences – and he bled last time (so he comes with risks !)

I take his 2 month absence as a positive – though Taunton can be a bit tricky to jump round.

He’s 10/1 this evening – and could be worth a small risk at that price.

In the same race, Speedalong also looks quite interesting, on the back of a win in a fair race last time – and he’s a general 7/1 shot…

The feature on the card is the handicap hurdle at 3:45.

Most of the runners seem to be up against it, either on account of the soft ground – or because the handicapper has probably caught up with them.

That makes finding the winner, a bit tricky..!

The ground is the issue with Black Mischief – but if he gets away with it, I think he’s the one to beat.

Caid du Lin is the other one of interest – though there is a possibility that he could do with a rest (he’s been very active, this season).

Assuming the ground is soft, then Jayo Time looks the one to beat in the handicap chase at 4:15.

He was in the process of  running his best rest in ages, last time at Hereford, before falling at the last.

It’s not ideal, arriving on the back of a fall – but provided he’s fully recovered, I think he will take the beating.

He’s certainly very well handicapped, based on his old form – and the run did suggest that a fair bit of the old ability remains.

If the ground wasn’t as soft, I would be very interested in Canicallyouback.
However, he has a marked preference for decent ground and I don’t think he’ll get that…

Northandsouth looks the one to beat in the opener at Wetherby.

He ran really well in a better race at Warwick last time, when he was unlucky to bump into a couple of useful types.

He’s in off the same mark tomorrow, and I think he sets the standard, in what doesn’t look an overly competitive race.

The market suggests the Princess Monoke is the one to beat – but at 5/2 the pair, I’d rather side with Northandsouth.

Pistol Park is the one of most interest in the 3:35 – provided you have a forgiving nature !

His recent form is poor – but he’s slipped down the handicap as a result.

It’s also interesting to note, that he’s been well backed in his last 2 races…

He’s undergone a breathing op since his most recent run – and is fitted with a tongue tie. 

If they do the trick, then on ground he should relish, I think he’ll be hard to beat…

That said, he’s been well found in the market, and it therefore may be a better idea to side with Vengeur de Guye…

He was beaten 8 lengths by Pistol Park last season  - but is 6lb better off tomorrow,

That suggests it should be close between the pair – and Vengeur de Guye doesn’t have the same question marks over him.

Maybe backing him at around 7/1 and saving stakes on Pistol Park, is the way to go …

I like the look of San Pietro in the handicap chase at 4:40.

He’s having his second run for Donald McCain, having run with some promise on his stable debut, last month.
If he can build on that, I would expect him to go close.

Lunar Flow looks a danger, on his first run after a wind op – however he has been well found in the market.

San Pietro can be backed at 15/2 this evening - and that is a fair price.