Thursday February 15th

Review 

It was a mixed day for the horses of interest…

Glance Back took the opener at Leicester, having looked beaten, jumping the last.

He drifted out to 15/8 at the off – and was available at over 3 on BF, so hopefully a few of you got involved with him…

Heavenly Promise was backed into 11/2, in the 2:15 – and travelled quite sweetly.

However, she had nothing in reserve when push came to shove.

She’s already rated 78 – so can’t go much lower.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see her sent off to the breeding sheds…

Unbelievably, Crosspark was retuned at odds on, in the 2:45 contest (10/11).

He was 11/4 when I posted last night – but his price just got shorter and shorter.

I couldn’t get involved with him at 6/4, at Lunchtime – so I certainly wasn’t interested in him come the off.

That said, I was very curious to see how he ran – and simply, that was disappointingly !

He was taken on for the lead – which probably didn’t help – and the trip was maybe on the short side for him – but I still would have expected better than a well beaten fourth place…

Over at Kelso, Chti Balko was also backed into a crazy price at the off.
He was 9/2 last night – but returned at 6/4 !

Admittedly there was a non runner – but it was still difficult to fathom the level of support.

As with Crosspark, he came up short – with the race won by eye catcher, Cyrus Darius.

Bruichladdich was yet another one to come in for heavy support – and he was sent off at 11/4 (though again, a NR was a factor in his price).

He was still going well enough when he stepped at the third last and took a fatal fall.

It’s always a bit sobering to watch an animal pay the ultimate price for our entertainment…

Finally, Rothman was backed into 8/11 at Fontwell – and looked to be in control of the race, turning in.

But he then got the third last all wrong – lost momentum – and couldn’t get back at Bramble Brook.

I wouldn’t judge him too harshly – though in truth, he isn’t the most consistent of performers…

I’m afraid that’s it for yet another week on the blog.

There isn’t much of interest tomorrow – and I’d rather spend the time preparing for Saturdays action.

Again, it’s not been possible to find a Nap this week – but the weather looks to be on the improve, so hopefully I’ll be able to get them going again next week.

I hope everyone has a good weekend !

TVB.

  

Lunchtime Update 

Despite already being relatively short prices, all of the horses that I was interested in last night, have been heavily backed this morning.

In the opener at Leicester, Glance Back has been cut from 2/1 to 6/4.

I couldn’t argue with that – but I think there is minimal margin in the current price…

Similarly, Crosspark has been hammered in the betting from 11/4 in to 6/4.

Again, I couldn’t argue with his current price – but there is precious little margin in it.

The price of Heavenly Promise has remained about the same (15/2) – but he is more of a speculative shout…

Over at Kelso, Chti Balko has been cut from 9/2 to 3/1.

Again, I can’t see anything in that price (he has more on his plate than Glance Back and Crosspark)

Whilst Bruichladdich is in to 4/1 from 5//1 yesterday – but as with Chti Balko, isn’t a certainty…

Finally, at Fontwell, Rothman can be backed at even money – which again, is about the right price…

The morning market moves have made it very difficult to get involved this afternoon.

I had earmarked Crosspark as the Lunchtime Nap – or failing that, Glance Back – but both have been backed to the point where there is minimal value…

If either one were to drift out to 2/1, I would become interested – but I can’t justify the risk at current prices.

I could take a risk on Bruichladdich – but he faces 9 rivals and 4/1 fees like the right price for him.

I can only apologise for raising expectations – but the market has moved to such an extent on the horses of main interest, that I can’t bring myself to Nap anything…

If it’s not the weather, it’s the betting – all a bit frustrating, really..!

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Leicester, Kelso and Fontwell – and no less than 5 TVB eye catchers running !

Glance Back is the first of those, in the opener at Leicester – and he looks to have a very good chance.

He finished third over course and distance, on his most recent outing – and could easily be capable of going 2 places better.

Certainly the first 2 home in his last race look better than any of the rivals he faces tomorrow – so off the same mark, if he can run to the same level, then he is very much the one to beat.

The slight concern, is that he tended to jump to his left last time – and 2/1 is hardly a massive price. That said, I wouldn’t want to be laying him…!

Heavenly Promise is the one of most interesting the following race (2:15).

He’s not an official eye catcher – but I have been keeping a close eye on him !

He ran well on his penultimate start at Bangor, before not getting home over 3 miles last time.

Dropped back to 2m4f tomorrow, he must have a fair chance against mostly modest rivals.

He’s 8/1 this evening and that looks a fair price…

Crosspark is the second eye catcher running on the Leicester card and he looks to have a very good chance in the 2:45 race.

He caught the eye last time at Warwick, when travelling really well in the Classic chase - but not getting home.

He’s significantly dropped in trip tomorrow – but won the corresponding race last year, off a mark just 2lb lower.

Soft ground is key to him, so whilst it’s quite tough looking race, I think he’ll take a bit of beating.

Creep Desbois looks the one to beat – but 11/4 about Crosspark looks a fair price.

There are also a couple of eye catchers running at Kelso – Cyrus Darius being the first of them (2:25)

He caught the eye 2 runs ago, when winning on his seasonal debut at Ayr.

I expected him to go on from that – but he’s been beaten the last twice and returns to hurdles tomorrow.

He’s another who won the corresponding race last year – and although he has to carry 6lb more tomorrow, he still has a good chance of doubling up.

That said, I slightly prefer the chances of Chti Balko – particularly as he can be backed at 9/2, as against the 3/1 on offer about Cyrus Darius. 

The big race of the day is at 3:00 – but it has only attracted a field of 4.

Shantou Flyer and Big River look two to concentrate on - but they also head the betting.

It’s a race which is probably best watched…

Bruichladdich is the second eye catcher running on the card – and he looks to have a very good chance in the handicap hurdle at 3:35.

He had no chance against a very well handicapped horse last time – but ran well to finish second.

He’ll be unlucky to come up against such a well treated rival again and 5/1 looks a fair price.

The final eye catcher runs in the 3:10 at Fontwell.

Rothman caught the eye last time, when finishing second in a better race at Kempton.

The winner of that race, Mercian Prince, has subsequently franked the form – and if he runs to the same level tomorrow, Rothman will win.

The issue with him, is that consistency isn’t his strong point – and with just 2 rivals, and a price of 4/5, he can really only be watched.

With a few potential candidates, I suspect there will be a Lunchtime Nap tomorrow.

Make sure you tune in, to find out who it is…!