Saturday October 13th - 2018-19 pre-season, day 1 !

There’s was a decent card at Newton Abbot today - and there’s an even better one at Chepstow tomorrow !

There is no ‘official’ start date for the new jumps season – but the quality of horses on show tomorrow suggest it’s now underway !

Certainly the TVB pre-season has now begun – and will run until the TVB season proper, starts on November 1st.

I’ll aim to post my views here, on any decent racing that takes place during the next few weeks – hopefully you will find them of interest, and it will also force me back into the routine of form study ! 

As for tomorrow: there are 4 races which I’ve looked closely at:

Chepstow

3:35

This really doesn’t look like a race to get involved with – particularly at early prices.

A case can be made for the 4 main protagonists – and even the outsider, Lisdoonvarna Lad, can be given a chance of sorts…

It’s going to come down to which horse is most ‘ready’: along with ability to jump fences – and improvement over the summer – and we are guessing in all those areas !

If forced, I would side with Poetic Rhythm.

He won over hurdles at this meeting last season – and also won a grade 1 over hurdles.

He should set a decent standard – assuming his jumping is up to scratch – and 10/3 seems like a fair price…

Spiritiofthgames can’t match Poetic Rhythms level of form over hurdles - but he could still have plenty of improvement in him – and 9/2 seems like a fair price.

Master Tommytucker could be anything – but he is short enough in the betting, for what he’s actually achieved: and whilst Monbeg Legend is the one runner in the field, proven over fences – and I could see him running creditably, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is good enough to win.

Selection: Poetic Rhythm at 10/3

 4:10

This is another race where I would struggle to make a compelling case for anything…

Grand Sancy is just about the most interesting runner – partially because his trainer, Paul Nicholls, has an excellent record in the race (he’s trained 4 of the past 8 winners).

4/1 is a tight enough price, based on what he’s achieved – but he could plenty of room for improvement.

The other 2 that particularly interest me, are Comrade Cotton and Knight Destroyer.

The former looks to have been primed for the race – with first time blinkers and a recent wind op.

He would be worth taking a small chance on, if you could get the best price of 7/1.

Knight Destroyer is a little more risky – but I like that fact that he’s had a recent run on the flat, to blow away the cobwebs.

He’s a similar price, which again, might represent a little bit of value.

On balance though, probably another watching race…

Selection: Comrade Cotton at 7/1

4:45

The first of 2 excellent races on the card – and I would be far more inclined to take a risk in this, than in the 2 races that precede it…

That said, it is still extremely trappy – so I won’t be betting with a huge amount of confidence !

My short list, consists of Le Patriote, Dans Le Vent, Court Minstrel and Zalvados.

Le Patriote is the one that interests me most.
He won a decent race at Ascot, before flopping in the Imperial Cup.

I’m prepared to forgive that run – and suspect he is still well handicapped off a mark of 135.

6/1 is tight enough, given the guess work involved – but he could easily go off shorter, if he is fancied by his stable.

Dans le Vent has more to prove – but has plenty of scope for improvement.

He’s very difficult to get a handle on (even ignoring fitness concerns) – but could potentially be well handicapped.

At 14/1, he is also worth having on side…

Court Minstrel won this race 12 months ago – and races off a mark 11lb lower tomorrow !

He’s 11 now (12 in the new year) – but I’m not sure that will stop him. Soft ground would tho – as he needs it to be riding on the quick side.

If it is, then he has to be backed.

Zalvados is the final one of interest.

He is actually held on form by Whatmore – but I suspect that one will run over a shorter trip on Sunday.

As his odds imply (25/1), he has a bit to prove – but I suspect the betting under-estimates him.

My tactic for the race, will be to split stakes across the 4 of them (3 in the ground is soft).
I’ll have the most on Le Patriote – and the least on Zalvados !

Selection: Le Patriote at 6/1

Dangers: Dans le Vent, Court Minstrel, Zalvados

5:30

This is such a good race ! It really wouldn’t look out of place at the Cheltenham festival !

The top 3 in the weights are all progressive young chasers, who each won a big race at the end of last season.

All 3 could easily go on to better things this season – the question is whether they will be fully tuned up for tomorrow.

I suspect not…

Rock the Kasbah almost certainly will !

He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and there is every chance he will follow up tomorrow, off a mark just 5lb higher.
He is probably the right favourite, simply because he will be trying the hardest !

The issue with him, is the price. 11/4 is very short is such a competitive race…

I’m more inclined to take a chance on a couple at bigger odds.

Silverhow is another young, progressive chaser, who was improving rapidly, at the end of last season.

He won on at Sandown on the final day of the season – and whilst that saw him raised 8lb in the handicap, he still gets in with just 10st8lb on his back, in this.

The doubt with him, is the trip – but if he gets it, I think he can go close.

Bigbadjohn will have no issue with the trip – though I’m little unsure about him going left handed.

He also doesn’t have the potential of a few of his rivals – but I suspect he will be cherry ripe and trying his hardest !

In the circumstances, 12/1 is a fair price – possibly each way.

Of the others, then Cobra de Mai could be interesting – if he stays the trip; whilst I could see Our Kaempfer out running his dismissive odds.

Selections: Silverhow at 14/1 and Bigbadjohn at 12/1