Review
Town Parks demonstrated the importance of sticking with
stables in form (as does Chris, most days in the forum, via his ‘trainers to
follow’ threads).
As I said last night, he could have been selected by a
process of elimination, based on stable form – and he also had ‘actual’ form to
support his claims !
His SP of 3/1 was pretty generous, considering – and did
leave me feeling that maybe I should have risked a Lunchtime Nap !
That said, I also fancied Streets of Promise – with the
money for her this morning, adding to the attraction.
However, after racing prominently early, she faded out of
things quite disappointingly…
Over at Plumpton, Two Hoots ran as if he needs a step up in
trip.
He was settled out the back – and never really got into the
race – but ran on quite nicely…
Finally, Ballyhague Bay did followers a nice turn by making
all in the handicap hurdle.
The race looked ripe for a ‘shock’, with Saucysioux a
vulnerable looking favourite.
She drifted all day – making it out to 7/1 on BF at one
point, before being backed in late (supply and demand).
However, she never travelled and looked beaten from a very
early stage.
Ballyhague Bay in the other hand, travelled very nicely – and
under a good ride from Harry Reed, made all.
He was backed in to 9/1 at the off (from 14/1 at
lunchtime) – but that was still a decent return…Lunchtime Update
Town Parks is a drifter in the 3:10 at Hereford – and is now
out to 5/2.
That in itself, wouldn’t put me off (he was arguably a bit
short last night) – but it’s not a race which can be approached with maximum
confidence.
By contrast, Streets of Promise has been well backed in the
3:40 (in to 6/1), which is interesting, as I didn’t see it coming…
In the same race, the market support for Another Venture,
Scotchtown and Goodtoknow was far more predictable…
Over at Plumpton, Two Hoots has been relatively weak in the
market, which tempers enthusiasm for his chances.
It’s a similar story with Ballyheigue Bay – though that
would bother me less.
Saucysioux is now out to 7/2 (from 2/1) – which is
presumably a result of it dawning on people that he’s got quite a job on…
It doesn’t really feel like a day for a Lunchtime Nap (I
know, I know – there’s not been one for ages
!).
We’re guessing on conditions – and fitness – so it’s more a day
for speculative punts – or following the market !
Evening Preview
There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow: at Hereford and
Plumpton.
And for a Monday, they aren’t bad cards – though I suspect
that both will be run on pretty bad ground !
The first race of interest on the Hereford card, is the
novice handicap chase at 3:10.
There are a lot of stables struggling for form at the moment
– and a few of them have representatives in this race !
Evan Williams hasn’t saddled a winner for 15 days (22
runners): whilst Ben Pauling hasn’t saddled one for 40 days (34 runners) !
Neither Colin Tizzard nor Venetia are exactly pulling up
trees – which suggests that Kerrys Lees representative, Town Park, might be the
one to be interested in…
He’s also got good recent form – and has shown himself
capable of handling heavy ground.
Carrying top weight, isn’t ideal – but he’s earnt it.
2/1 is probably a fair price – even if it hardly sets the
pulse racing !
The following race, is probably the best one of the day…
Houblon des Obeaux is a class act – but he’s not overly big
and I wouldn’t fancy his chances of carrying 12 stone + in heavy ground.
In truth, most of the runners can be given a chance of sorts
– and I might be inclined to take a small risk on Streets of Promise.
She finished third in the corresponding race 12 months ago –
well behind Goodtoknow.
However she has plummeted down the weights since then – and
now races from a mark 15lb lower.
She didn’t run too badly on her most recent outing at
Haydock and 8/1 seems like a perfectly reasonable price.
Over at Plumpton, there’s another reasonable novice handicap
chase at 2:25.
I expected Two Hoots to be favourite for this, on the back
of a promising stable debut for Jeremy Scott.
That was over hurdles and he now switches to fences – which
is an interesting move…
He’s relatively unexposed (just 6 previous runs), so could be
capable of taking a step forward.
There’s a lot of guesswork involved – but 5/1 seems like a
fair price…
Finally, I’m inclined to take on Saucysioux in the
conditional jockey handicap hurdle at 3:25.
She has been raised 13lb for her last time out win – and
steps up 2 classes tomorrow (class 5 to class 3).
She may be up to the task – but it’s a big ask and 2/1 is a
short price…
I might be more inclined to tale a risk on Ballyheigue Bay.
He ran well in a similar race on his penultimate outing,
before falling early, last time.
He can be backed at 12/1 this evening, and I think there is
some value in that price…
No comments:
Post a Comment