Wednesday January 17th

Review 

One of Us was a late withdrawal at Market Rasen, on account of the ground – so we’ll have to wait another day, to see if the Lunchtime Naps can get up the 7 timer !

Whilst his absence was obviously a little disappointing, I would much rather connections act and withdraw horses, if they think the ground has gone against them.

Certainly in this instance, I think One of Us would have struggled to cope with Itsnonofurbusiness, who showed massive improvement on his handicap debut.

Later on the card, the jumping of Cougars Gold let him down.

As I said last night, he was mainly a value call in an open race – and his SP of 5/1 was much closer to the price that I had in mind for him.

Not that the shorter price made much difference to his performance !

Over at Newbury, Doitforthevillage, was the other big hope on the day.

He was weak in the betting (returned at 6/1) – but looked like winning when cruising into the lead, early in the straight.

However, he seemed to empty as soon as he got there, appearing very much like a horse in need of the run.

I’m sure he will do much better next time…

Saint Calvados was an impressive winner of the novice handicap chase – looking like a graded horse in handicap company.

The issue with him was the price – though in truth, even 5/4 he returned at, looked good value for most of the contest.

Finally, Kimberlite Candy was backed into 10/3 favouritism in the 3:00 race – but was badly hampered by the fall of market rival, Indy Five at the second fence.

Barry Geraghty persevered with him for a while – but gave up not long after half way.
There should be other days for him…

Lunchtime Update

The meeting at Fairyhouse was indeed lost to the weather: but Market Rasen survived an inspection – and that was more important !

The price of One of Us seems to have bottomed at 5/2 – which I think is fair.

Red Danahar has materialised in the betting as his biggest threat – which is also how I see it.

He is potentially well handicapped – but he hasn’t got the scope of the favourite…

In the 3:10 race, there has been money for Cougars Gold and he is now an 8/1 shot.
That lessens the appeal a little, as he was more a ‘value’ pick (and the value is now longer as great !).

Over at Newbury, Doitforthevillage is weak in the betting and out to 9/2.

The money has come for Percy Street – though that may be because he has James Bowen in the saddle (and is trained by Nicky Henderson).

Bowen is very good – but even he is not capable of offsetting the 2 stone that Doitforthevillage could have in hand of his hurdles make, and he’s a fair bet at 9/2.

Jameson is quite weak in the betting for the 2:25 – and I think it’s a race just to watch:

Whilst Kimberlite Candy remains a 9/2 shot in the 3:00, and that is still about the right price !

There are 2 options for todays Lunchtime Nap: Doitforthevillage and One of Us.

I am tempted by the former, as I think he’s drifted to a good price.

However, he does face a few rivals who are difficult to quantify.

One of Us is the safer bet – and the Lunchtime Nap is all about finding the most likely winner, so he is todays selection.

Lunchtime Nap: One of Us 1:00 Market Rasen (Fair Price 5/2)

  

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings scheduled for tomorrow: at Newbury and Market Rasen in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland, assuming it survives the expected snow.

Regardless, the days best racing takes place in the UK...

There is a varied card at Newbury, which kicks off with a handicap hurdle at 1:20.

It’s not an easy one to assess, as the principals have all got very different profiles.

That said, if Doitforthevillage can replicate his chase form over hurdles, he will win.
On his most recent outing, he took a class 2 handicap chase at Cheltenham off a mark of 135: tomorrow he is contesting a class 4 handicap hurdle, off a mark of 113.

In short, he could have almost 2 stone in hand of his mark – and even if he jumps the hurdles as though they are fences, that should be sufficient for him to win !

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Prairie Town outrun his 14/1 odds – but the race is really all about Doittothevillage…

There may only be 4 runners in the handicap chase at 2:25 – but it’s not an easy one to call.

I’m quite a fan of Jameson – though he might have his work cut out fending off the unexposed pair, Saint Calvados and Tree of Liberty.

Both were impressive winners last time – and could easily be capable of defying their new marks.

I’d have a slight preference for Saint Calvados – as a 4lb rise for his course and distance win, doesn’t look particularly harsh.
The trouble is, he’s a 6/4 shot – and that’s too short in such a tight contest.

The 3:00 is another tough race to call.

Kimberlite King had shown nothing over fences, prior to winning on his most recent outing.

He only scrambled home by a neck that day - and a 5lb rise looks quite harsh.

However, his new mark over fences, is still 6lb lower than his hurdles mark – and Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle.
He can be backed at 9/2 this evening – and that looks fair.

Over at Market Rasen, One of Us looks very interesting in the handicap hurdle at 1:00.

He won a better race than this at Ascot last time – and a 4lb weight rise or that win, looks very lenient.

He opened up at 7/2 this evening – but you will now struggle to get 5/2.

In theory, that is short in a 12 runner handicap – but I doubt he will be beaten.

Maybe the price will drift a little tomorrow…

Finally, Cougars Gold looks like a value play in the handicap chase at 3:10.

He represents the Peter/Sean Bowen combination and didn’t run too badly on his chasing debut at Ffos Las, last month.

He won on his only previous visit to Market Rasen – and whilst he’s certainly not a good thing, he’s a fair bet at 12/1, in an open looking race.