Tuesday January 16th

Review 

Heavenly Promise ran a decent race to take fourth in the 2:00 at Hereford.

She finished behind a couple of ex PTP horses (who were difficult to quantity) and the favourite.

She looks capable of winning a low-grade contest…

Gassin Gold also finished fourth, in the 3:05 – without ever really looking likely to do much better.

Carlos Du Fruitier was pulled up before the second last in the same race, when it looked as if something went wrong (hopefully nothing too serious).

Finally, Born to Size was a big pre-race drifter in the 3:40.
As I said earlier, it’s impossible to side with ones like him, without knowing what the late market thinks.

He was 4.5 on BF – and seemingly strong, half an hour before the off: but out to 8 and friendless when tapes went up.

Needless to say, he ran as if needing it…

On to tomorrow…

Lunchtime Update

The Ayr card has been washed away, leaving just the meeting at Hereford.

However, as I said last night, all of the races look too trappy to consider serious involvement…

Heavenly Promise can still be backed at 11/1 in the 2:00 – and could be worth a small play at that price.

In the 3:05, Gassin Gold and Carlos du Fruitier continue to dominate the market –with both now a touch shorter in the betting than they were last night (when I considered them a bit too short to get involved with !).

Finally, Born to Size appears reasonable strong in the market for the 3:40 – however, the key market moves will come later in the day.

Provided he hasn’t drifted beyond 6 in the betting on BF at the off, I think he’s the one to beat.

Needless to say, there is no Lunchtime Nap today !

Newbury and Market Rasen tomorrow, will hopefully yield better opportunities…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow at Hereford and Ayr (assuming the latter survives its early morning inspection) – but both cards look like they should be treated with extreme caution !

The Hereford one looks particularly trappy – with it difficult to quantify runners in most of the races... 

Heavenly Promise is the one I will be keeping my eye on, in the 2:00 race.

I marked her down as one to watch on her penultimate outing at Ludlow - but then watched her unship her rider at the seventh fence !

She did much better on her next run, at Bangor a fortnight ago, when finishing third.

I would have thought that run should give her a fair chance in this (even ignoring any possible improvement), so she would seem a reasonable bet at a double figure price…

The best race of the day, is the handicap hurdle at 3:05 – and it looks most likely to go to one of the market leaders, Gassin Golf or Carlos du Fruitier.

The former is potentially well handicapped – but unproven over the trip: whilst the latter has the greatest potential for improvement.
That said, neither one is bomb proof, so quotes of just over 3/1 make limited appeal…

The 3:40 is a fascinating handicap chase – but again, very difficult to call.

Ratify probably sets the standard on the back of his recent win – but at 14 years old, off an 8lb higher mark – and from a stable not in the best of form, he’s hard to side with.

The ex-Irish Born to Size is the most interesting alternative – though you would really want market support if you were to side with him.

There are 3 or 4 others who could be given a chance – so it will be interesting to see what the market makes of things…

I’m disinclined to spend too much time on the Ayr card – with the doubts hanging over it.

If racing does take place, then the ground will be desperate and I’d be inclined to focus on the lowly weighted horses.

In the handicap chase at 2:15, Benarty Hill fits the bill, with just 10st5lb on his back – excluding his jockeys 7lb claim.

He’s very difficult to quantify, but has been sent over from Ireland to contest the race, which only adds to the interest.

He can be backed at 8/1 this evening – and that seems fair.

In the following race, Orioninverness is the one of most interest.

Again, he gets in with a low weight – and has a claiming jockey in the saddle.

He’s also one of the few in the race with scope for improvement.

He’s 4/1 tonight, which is tight – but probably about the right price…