Wednesday 31 January 2018

Thursday February 1st

Review 



This afternoon provided a couple of timely reminders (not that they were needed - but they never harm !) on how important it is, to be price aware – and not to just go searching for winners…

As I said at lunchtime, if there had been a Nap today, it would probably have been Doc Carver at Towcester  - but there wasn’t sufficient in his price to warrant the risk.

3 from home, everything seemed to be going fine for him (he was trading at 1.5 in-running) – but then he stepped at a hurdle and that was that…

It’s a game of fine margins – and you always need something in the price to justify the risk.

The message was the same in the big race of the day, at Wincanton – even if the delivery was a bit different !

I felt that Le Boizelo was the one to beat – but there was nothing in a price of 5/2.

Grand Vision looked the better value at 8/1 – though there was the slight concern that he may not get home (Colin Tizzards horses have appeared not to be in top form).

The race didn’t pan out exactly as I expected, as they went a bit quick for Grand Vision early.
However, he has plenty of stamina – and that kicked in, once they turned for home. A huge jump at the last, sealed the deal for him.

He was the third winner on the day for the Tizzards – so maybe the stable is back firing again…

In the other race of interest at Wincanton, Captain Cattistock contradicted the value argument a little ! – but that will inevitably happen from time to time…

In fairness, Here’s Herbie didn’t seem to run his race at all – which probably helped the favourite…

Finally, neither Black Narcissus nor Try it Sometime were as strong in the late betting as they had been this morning.

As is invariably the case, it was the late market which proved more accurate: with Try it Sometime taking an early fall and Black Narcissus only finishing fifth.



That’s it on the blog for another week, I’m afraid…

There’s a massive weekend ahead – with the inaugural Dublin festival the feature.

Finals declarations for Saturdays races are already out – so I need to start studying !

I’ll be back on the blog early next week – by which point, hopefully conditions will have improved a little (though I won’t be banking on it !!)




Lunchtime Update


Le Boizol has been well backed at Wincanton and is now a best priced 5/2.

That’s a bit too short in such a competitive race – though obviously, it won’t stop him from winning !

A better play in the race, is probably Grand Vision – backed pre-race at 8/1 and layed off in running.

I’m pretty sure he’ll travel well – the question is whether he’ll last home…

In the previous race on the card (3:00), Here’s Herbie has drifted out to 4/1, in the face of support for Captain Cattisrock.

It’s not my style to recommend each way in a 5 horse race – but at 4/1, Here’s Herbie does look something of an each way bet to nothing.

The other option would be to back him to win – and save stakes on Captain Cattisrock.

Over at Towcester, Doc Carver has remained solid in the market – and still looks as if he’ll take the beating.

Whilst in the 2:50, Try it Sometime and Black Narcissus have been just about the best backed horses in the race.

The former was 16/1 last night – but you’ll now struggle to beat 7/1; whilst the latter has been backed in from 12/1 to 8/1…

The ‘value’ in the prices is obviously not what it was – though they do now seem more accurately priced …

The is a slight temptation to issue a Lunchtime Nap today, just to get things moving again !

However, Doc Carver is the one I’d be most inclined to select – and 5/4 about a handicap debutante in a 5 horse race on heavy ground, doesn’t strike me as the greatest bet ever struck…

I think he’ll win – but so does the market – and I’m guessing on whether his price represents value.

As a consequence, I’m afraid that once again, there is no Lunchtime Nap today…


Evening Preview


There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow: at Wincanton and Towcester.

The theme of small fields, low grade races and desperate ground, continues – and in truth, I could easily have sat the day out (as I’ve done the past 2).
It’s certainly not a day for getting stuck in – but with a bit of effort, I’ve managed to find a few races of interest…

Chief amongst them is the handicap chase at Wincanton, which will be off at 3:35.
It is, by some margin, the best race of the day – but it’s not an easy one to call…

The top 4 in the betting can all be given a chance – and I would only have a slight preference for Le Boizelo (7/2).

He’s an improving sort, who won over course and distance last time – and could be capable of following up, off an 8lb higher mark.

If Colin Tizzards stable were in better form, I would have been tempted by the veteren, Grand Vision.
He’s shown tremendous enthusiasm the last twice he’s run – and if he’s in the same form tomorrow, he will be a tough one to pass.

The only other race of interest on the card, is the handicap hurdle at 3:00.

Captain Cattistock looks the one to beat – though his connections (Paul Nichols and Bryony Frost), plus his potential, may mean that he goes off shorter in the betting than he should…

Here’s Herbie looks a more reliable proposition – and he should relish conditions. He’s the better bet at 7/2.
Captain Cattistock could be different class – but Heres Herbie is a solid bench mark.

It’s low grade stuff at Towcester, with the best race on the card, the handicap hurdle at 2:15.

This is a weak looking contest for the grade – and it will be no surprise if handicap debutante, Doc Carver, is good enough to take it.

He’s pretty short in the betting at 6/5 – but it’s not easy to find something to beat him…

The handicap chase at 2:50 is far more competitive – even if it does lack a bit of quality…

It’s the kind of race where I would be inclined to take a risk on an outsider, who could show improved form.

Black Narcissus and Try it Sometime are the two who catch my eye.

Both are potentially well handicapped, on their best form: with the former sporting first time blinkers – and having his first run after a wind op; and the latter running in the race in which he finished second last year, from a 5lb lower mark.
At 12/1 and 16/1 respectively, they are both worth a small risk…

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