Thursday January 18th

Review 

Vicenzo Mio ran a really good race at Wincanton, just weakening out of the places late on, having been prominent throughout.

He touched 3.15 in running, so anyone who did play him in running, will hopefully have done so with success !

In the same race, Hatchet Jack was backed late and went off at 5/1.
He looked likely to win, approaching the last, but just couldn’t reel in big improver, Savoy Court.

Royal Palladium was disappointing in the following race – and whilst Cyclop ran a fair bit better, he never looked like getting to all the way winner, Themanfrom Minella.

There was nothing wrong with the jumping of Triopas – but the 2m4f trip was too short for him.

He tried to make it into a stamina test, but was outspeeded close home.

I think we can start following him again (Chris) – over fences or hurdles – assuming he is given a trip of at least 3 miles…

Acaro never featured in the 3:20 race and it looks like he has started his life in handicaps from too high a mark.

Todays performance will help a little with that, mind !

Over at Ludlow, Local Show ran a decent race – but was no match for Actinpieces.

Without Local Show in the race, Actinpieces could easily have been todays Nap – but

I just thought Local Show capable of a big run and that put me off the favourite (at the prices).

Finally, Deauville Crystal drifted back out to 20/1 at the off – and whilst she ran a fair race, trying to make all – she was quickly brushed aside when the serious action got underway.

She will drop a few pounds for todays run and will doubtless bounce back to form at some point…

That’s all for the blog this week (don’t the weeks just fly round !).

Due to a variety of circumstances, it has ended up a week with no Lunchtime Naps – but as I’ve said previously, I don’t want to force them.

Hopefully some of you managed to glean a few useful pointers from my daily thoughts.

As always, my focus for the next few days will be on the Main service - and the big races that are taking place over the weekend.

All being well however, I’ll be back on the blog early next week.

Until then…

Lunchtime Update

There isn’t too much to update on, with regard to market moves this morning…

In theory, Vicenzo Mio has been backed in to 12/1 in the 1:40 at Wincanton.

However, as he can still be backed at 19 on BF, I would expect his price to drift, on the opening show.

He’s a strong traveller, so is definitely worth backing with a view to laying in running, at the very least.

In the same race, Contented and Hatchet Jack are now 4/1 and 13/2 respectively, as support has materialised for a few of the other runners.

Hatchet Jack looks a fair bet at that price…

Cyclop has been backed in to 7/2 in the 2:10 race – which is too short, considering how competitive it is.

Royal Palladium is relatively friendless and the 11/1 on him, makes more appeal…

Triopas remains a 7/4 shot in the 2:45 – which may or may not be a good price (time will tell !): whilst Acaro is now an 8/1 shot in the 3:20 – and is probably worth a small risk at that price…

Over at Ludlow, Local Show can still be backed at 14/1 in the 2:00 race – and is definitely worth a risk at that price.

It’s worth saving stakes on Actinpieces at 5/2.

Finally, Deauville Crystal has been backed into 14/1 in the 3:45 – which seems a more accurate reflection of her chances.

She may be worth a small play – with a saver on The Sweeney (at 4/1).

Unfortunately, there is nothing suitable for a Lunchtime Nap today…

Most of the horses of interest, are at big prices and are relatively speculative.

I think that Vicenzo Mio, Acaro, Local Show and Deauville Crystal have all got a chance of winning – and there is definitely ‘value’ in their prices.

Of the 4, I like Local Show best – but that is mainly because I think he’s competing in a winnable race.

He’s still more likely to finish last than first !

Good luck if you do choose to get involved today… 

Evening Preview 

All being well, 2 NH meetings will take place tomorrow: at Wincanton and Ludlow.

It will be interesting to see how the ground is riding, because it looked very soft today, at both Market Rasen and Newbury…

At Wincanton, I can understand why Contented and Hatchet Jack head the market in the 1:40 race.

Both are relatively unexposed: with the former making his handicap debt and the latter, running for just the second time in a handicap, having shaped very promisingly on his first outing.

The question is whether they represent any ‘value’, at 3/1 and 5/1 respectively…

I’m pretty sure that Vicenzo Mio represents value at 20/1 this evening.
He’s a horse who I’ve been watching for a few years – and whilst he’s an under-achiever, he has the talent to win from todays mark.

If the first time cheek pieces have the desired effect, he will make them all go…

Cyclop looks the one to beat in the 2:10.
Generally, I can’t bemoan the luck that the Tips on the Main service, have experienced this season – but he is definitely one that got away when I tipped him at Fontwell and he came second to Cresswell Breeze.

He followed that run up, by winning at Market Rasen on Boxing day and a 3lb rise for that victory may be insufficient to stop him from going in again tomorrow.

That said, it does look quite an open race – in which a chance of sorts can be given to most of the runners.

Royal Palladium looks the other one of particular note, as he’s on a mark he can win from – and he should relish conditions.

Triopas makes his chasing debut in the 2:45 race.

He’s been a repeating eye catcher for most of the season – and not let followers down.

I picked up on him when he won at Chepstow in November – and he’s subsequently won 3 of his next 4 races.

There is no reason why he shouldn’t take to fences – but I’m not sure I’ll be rushing to back him at 7/4, having never seen him jump a fence.

Show the Road is understandably favourite for the 3:20 race.
The form of his win at Exeter on New Years day, was franked when the runner up, Friday Night Light, won the opener at Newbury today.

A mark of 118 looks perfectly fair – and he’s likely to take a bit of beating…

That said, Acaro is even more unexposed – and could also be on an exploitable mark.

Furthermore, he can be backed at 15/2 this evening (as against even money, for the favourite).

Over at Ludlow, Actinpieces looks the solid option in the 2:00 race – even if 5/2 is a bit on the short side.

Local Show is more speculative but he is handicapped to win, if back anywhere near his best.

James Bowen is an eye catching booking – and the 14/1 this evening, is worth a risk…

Finally, The Sweeny is the one of most interest on his handicap debut in the 3:45.
However, a price of 9/2 isn’t overly generous, given he is impossible to properly quantify.

Of more appeal, is the 20/1 about top weight Deauville Crystal.

She didn’t really take to fences earlier in the season – but is potentially well handicapped back over hurdles, if she can re-find her form.

In fact, if you take James Bowens 5lb claim as a gift (which it is !) she is effectively running off the same mark that she was successful from at Warwick last season.

She should have no issue with the ground – and whilst the trip is an unknown, Ludlow is a hardly a demanding course.