Wednesday November 15th

Review 

Plenty of todays winners got a positive mention in last nights preview – the tricky bit was figuring out the right ones to back !

As an aside: I’m sure a few of you are wondering how I myself, use the information that I post on the blog…

As you’ve probably figured out by now, most of my betting is done on BF – and from lunchtime onwards…

I tend to give myself a nominal £20 to risk on each race I preview – and I look to spread that money across the horses I’m interested in – balanced by how much I fancy them and the prices I can secure…

Taking the opener at Exeter today, as an example:

The main fancy was Forgetthesmalltalk – so I allocated £10 to him – and managed to get 5.5.

The next one of interest, was Present Time and I allocated £4 to him – and got an average of 22 (he was a drifter).

I didn’t want to lose on Trans Express – so there was £3 on him at 8.

And finally I had a speculative £2 on Bancos De Logos at 70.

I sometimes over-back horses, if I think their odds are too big and I believe I’ll be able to lay them back in-running (which you can normally do, if they race prominently or travel strongly – tho it’s not as easy as it used to be !).

Anyway, that’s the method I use – and it’s served me well for a number of years !

As for today: then Siruh du Lac was an impressive winner of the opener at Bangor.

I said last night that he was of interest at a big price (14/1) – and the money early this morning, simply re-enforced the interest…

I’ve no idea who backs a horse at 7:00 in the morning – but I’ve seen it happen before – and with the same end result !

The horse was a late drifter – which would generally concern me.

However, I suspect that may be explained by the fact he was awash with sweat when he arrived at the post.

He may have been worked up – but it didn’t stop him performing in the race and he won easily…

I suggested last night that The Nipper and Lady Buttons were over-priced in the mares chase.

I had a slight preference for the former – but it was the latter who attracted the most market support…

And the market was right, with her winning very tidily, on her chasing debut…

I was quite keen on Potters Cross in the 1:45 – whilst acknowledging that he might be vulnerable from a win perspective.

And that was how it panned out – with him running a fair race.

He only finished fourth – but was beaten just 5 lengths.

I’m sure he has a good race in him – though he might be the type who pops up when everyone has given up on him…

Noel Fehily gave a master class in riding a front runner, to get Dashing Oscar home in the 2:50.

I thought that Loverboy might be able to turn the tables on him – but Fehily perfectly judged the pace of the race.

There really is no one better in the game, given an uncontested lead…

At Exeter, in the opener, Present Times got the better of the Lunchtime Nap, Forgetthesmalltalk.

I’d marked the winner down as the main danger to the days nap – and hopefully a few of you covered on him, as his SP of 16/1 (BSP 25/1) was very generous…

Timons Tara never really featured in the handicap chase at 2:00 – whilst the jumping of the favourite, Jepeck, wasn’t good enough…

Another Venture ran a really sound race in the novice handicap chase at 2:30 – but bumped in to a better handicapped rival in the shape of Wotzizname.

That was always a distinct possibility.

Finally, Yanworth landed too steeply after jumping the sixth fence and crumpled on landing.

I wasn’t overly impressed by his jumping on his debut – and this did little to convince me that he’s a natural…

I suspect that he best chance of championship honours will be in the Stayers hurdle (though events out of his control are likely to decide whether he even runs in that race).

There will be no more posts on the blog until next week…

The 3 day Cheltenham November meeting starts on Friday – and my preparations for that, will begin in earnest, tomorrow lunchtime.

I know that most of the readers of this blog are already subscribers to the main TVB service – however for those of you who aren’t, I’m offering the opportunity for you to purchase a 3 day pass to the main TVB service, for the meeting.

It will cost £15 for the 3 days – and for that, you will receive a preview for each race, late on the race day morning – plus a review, after the days racing is complete.

I will also be issuing tips for some of the races – either the day before, or early on the race day morning (prior to issuing the preview).

I will only allow 10 people to buy passes – to be fair to the existing guys on the service.

If you would like to buy a pass – and effectively trial the main TVB service for a weekend - please make your payment of £15 via Paypal, to thevaluebettor@gmail.com.

Payments need to be received before midday tomorrow (Thursday 16^th November), if you want to be sure of receiving all of the official tips for the meeting.

For the rest of you – I hope you enjoy your weekend – and I’ll be back blogging next week !

Lunchtime Update

There has been a lot of activity in the morning markets – with a number of the horses that I high lighted last night, coming in for serious support…

Not more so, that Siruh du Lac in the opener at Bangor…

He was a 14/1 shot yesterday evening – but money came for him at 7:00 this morning, and his price was quickly halved !

He’s eased back out a little now, in the face of support for Just Georgie – and serious support for Agamemmom.

The later is now just 6/4 – having been 5/2 last night.

My feeling is that Agamemmom will take a bit of beating – but he’s evidently up against some fancied rivals…

In the mares chase, The Nipper has been quite well backed and is now an 11/2 shot.

I think that’s a fair enough price…

Support has continued for Potters Legend in the 1:45 – and he’s now best priced at 11/4.

It’s a competitive enough race and I suspect his price might ease slightly before the off.
I still think he’s the one to beat, however…

Bidbadjohn and Battle of Shiloh are the other 2 who have come in for market support – in line with my thinking yesterday evening…

The most significant market move in the 2:50, has been the support for Leoncavallo…

He was 12/1 last night – but is half that price now.

He’s well handicapped – so it could be tipster driven money.

His market strength close to the off is likely to sign post his fate…

Forgetthesmalltalk has been relatively weak in the market for the opener at Exeter, as support has come in for Trans Express and Albert Dolivate.

I respect the chance of them both – plus Present Times – but I still think Forgetthesmalltalk is the one to beat…

Timons Tara has been very weak in the betting for the 2:00.

I still think she’s a fair back to lay in running proposition – but I’ll be surprised if she comes home in front.

Jepeck has been well supported and remains the one to beat.

Another Venture has been surprisingly well backed in the 2:30 race.

I didn’t think his chance was that obvious – and it looks a very competitive race – so a market move from 10/1 to 5/1 seems significant.

I couldn’t back him at such a short price- so it’s now a watching race for me…

Finally, Yanworth has remained very solid in the betting for 3:00 – suggesting that neither of his 2 main rivals are particularly fancied to topple him…

Potters Legend was the other one under consideration – but todays Lunchtime Nap is:

Forgetthesmalltalk 12:50 Exeter (Fair Price 7/2)

Evening Preview 

There is plenty of NH racing again tomorrow, with 4 meetings: at Bangor, Exeter, Ayr and Fairyhouse.

The best quality racing takes place at the 2 English venues, with both hosting few decent quality - and intriguing - contests…

In the opener at Bangor (12:40), I’ll be interested to see if Truckers Tavern can follow up his last time out win at Worcester…

The booking of 5lb claimer, Alex Edwards, effectively offsets the rise in the handicap that he received for his win – so from a pure handicapping perspective, he’s got a good chance…

However, he’s a horse with breathing issues – so not guaranteed to maintain his form.

Furthermore, the 2m4f trip, may stretch him.

He should make a fair in-running play – but I’d worry slightly about his ability to last home (particularly as Just Georgie could well give him a tough time, up front)…

At a much bigger price, I’m quite interested in Siruh du Lac.

He disappointed on his chasing debut last time at Kempton, but it’s too early to be writing him off…

I think that the mares chase at 1:10, is more open than the betting suggests.

It’s possible to make a case for all 5 runners – and whilst the market probably has them in the right sequence, I think The Nipper and Lady Buttons are both potentially over-priced.

In fairness, neither is proven over a fence – so that is a concern.

However, if the do take to the larger obstacles, they are both good enough to put it up to the market leaders.

Of the 2, I would have a slight preference for The Nipper, who is a 7/1 shot this evening…

The best race of the day, takes place at 1:45 – but unfortunately, the horse I fancy most for it, has already been very well backed…

Potters Legend has some very strong form from last season – and ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.
Everything looks perfect for him tomorrow - and the early 6/1 about his chances was a bit of a gift.

You’ll struggle to beat 3/1 now – and that looks about right.

I can’t see him not running his race – though there is a chance that he’ll be vulnerable form a win perspective.

Most of his rivals can be given a chance – with Battle of Shiloh and Bigbadjohn, looking the ones most likely, if Potters Legend is beaten.

At the likely prices, I can see myself getting drawn to Bigbadjohn.

He has a lot of ability – and tomorrows smaller field could prove crucial for him (he’s tended to struggle in big field races).

There’s an interesting handicap hurdle at 2:50 – in which a chance can be given to most of the runners…

Dashing Oscar has been installed favourite - but I’m not sure he’ll confirm last time out Fontwell form with Loverboy…

Certainly the latter makes the greater appeal at respective prices (3/1 and 7/1)…

I could see Bobo Mac out-running his odds (currently 12/1); whilst Leoncavallo is one to keep a close eye on in the betting…

Over at Exeter, favourite Forgetthesmalltalk, looks the one to beat in the opener (12:50).

He finished behind Midnight Request last time, but I would expect him to reverse the form tomorrow.

I’m actually quite keen on his chances – though he does face a few interesting looking rivals.

Present Times heads that list; followed by Trans Express.

I could also see Banco des Logos running better than his odds suggest…

At any price greater than 3/1, I think Forgetthesmalltalk is worth a risk.

In the handicap chase at 2:00, I would expect Timons Tara to run well.

She did so on her seasonal debut at Uttoxeter – and tomorrows softer ground will suit her better.

I have a slight concern over her stamina – but she’s another who should travel well (making her suitable for an in running play).

Jepeck is probably the one to beat – though he’s impossible to assess form-wise, so will have to be monitored in the betting…

There’s a really interesting novice handicap chase at 2:30.

It’s impossible to be categoric about the outcome – but I suspect the line-up contains  plenty of future winners.

As for tomorrow, then I would maybe take a chance on Another Venture.
He ran a reasonable race on his chain debut at Uttoxeter – and I can see him stepping up on that over a longer trip and on softer ground.

He’s a fair price this evening, at 10/1 – particularly considering the form of his stable.

That said, there is a chance that the likes of Longtown, Buster Thomas, Wicked Willie and a few of the others (!), could be a good bit better than their current marks.
I doubt they all will be – but equally, I’ll be surprised if one or two aren’t…

Finally, Yanworth has his second outing over fences in the 3:00 – and he will probably win.
However, he faces a couple of rivals, who on paper at least, should provide a stern test.

His experience and race fitness are likely to be decisive – but I wouldn’t be taking silly odds about him coming home in front…

Tuesday November 14th

Review 

Beni Light looked like a horse that would improve for the run, at Lingfield.

His jumping was a little ponderous – and everything seemed to be happening a stride to fast for him.

He was eventually pulled up - but I suspect he’ll leave this form behind, in the fullness of time and he is one to remain interested in…

In the 2:50 race, Un Prophet ran in snatches – and didn’t really build on his reappearance (which was a bit concerning, from Venetias perspective).

De Faoithesdream is of more immediate interest, going forward…

He was well backed late – and whilst the race wasn’t run to suit him, he still ran with credit.

He’ll be dropped a few pounds for the run – and if he finds the right race, he is likely to take it apart…

The early money for Sirop De Menthe had dried up by the off, and he was sent off at 8/1 (10/1 on BF).

He ran a reasonable race – and if he can build on it, he should be back in the winners enclosure before too long…

At Huntingdon, I was a bit aggrieved that I couldn’t find anything to take on Call me Lord – and my uncertainty regarding him, proved well founded.

He was relatively weak in the market and never looked to be travelling particularly well.

The race was ultimately won by the rank outsider, Unison, which maybe explained why I struggled to find one to oppose him with…

I as a little surprised that Cyrname has been backed in to 3/1 at lunchtime – and even more so that he was sent off at 15/8.

However, I was far less surprised that he subsequently came home unchallenged !

When horses are consistently strong in the market, they invariably run very big races (it’s almost as if somebody knows !).

Finally, the Lunchtime Nap, Cheltenham de Vaige was arguably a little unlucky not to win the 3:10 race.

That said, with 14 opponents and 10 hurdles to navigate, you are always going to require a bit of luck.

He managed to avoid a few early fallers – and was slick over most of his obstacles.

However, put under pressure approaching the last, he completely fluffed it – and that cost him the race.

I think his performance shows why it is always dangerous to chase down the price of a horse in NH racing.

There are so many variables (quite a few of them out of your control), you always need something in the odds, to compensate for the element of lottery…

Lunchtime Update

At Lingfield, there has been little movement in the price of Beni Light, who remains an 8/1 shot (best).

I wouldn’t put anyone off a small play on him at that price…

Un Prophet has contracted slightly in price – but I think this is more a watching race (though if he travels as he did on his debut, there should be little damage done by, backing him pre-race with a view to laying in-running).

Sirop de Menthe is the really interesting one on the Lingfield card !

I didn’t expect him to be backed – but 14/1 last night has now become 6/1.

He is potentially well handicapped, so it could be tipster driven money – but if the support is maintained to the off, I would be inclined to take notice…

Call me Lord has remained very strong in the market at Huntington – but as I said last night, that’s probably because options to take him on with, are limited…

Cyrname is another who I’m surprised to see has been backed this morning.

He was 9/2 last night – but you’ll struggle to get 3/1 now.

I’m less attracted to him at the shorter price…

Finally, Cheltenham de Vaige remains very solid in the market for the 3:10.

It appears that he’s only got 2 serious rivals – and neither of those is strong in the market.

Having thought a little more about the Lunchtime Nap, I think my objective should primarily be to find a winner (as opposed to a value bet).

Beni Light and Sirop de Menthe are both worthy of consideration today –

however the honour of Lunchtime Nap, goes to: Cheltenham de Vaige 3:10 Huntingdon (Fair price 6/4)

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow – at Lingfield, Huntingdon and Worcester.

Needless to say, there are plenty of races – but most of them are quite mundane (particularly at Worcester) – and I can’t see many betting opportunities, either…

The best card takes place at Lingfield, and whilst he is speculative, I do like the look of Beni Light in the novice handicap chase at 1:50.

He is making his fencing debut tomorrow, but looks as if he may be a typical Tom George improver…

He ran a couple of decent races in bumpers; 3 low key runs over hurdles to get a mark: and now makes his chasing debut in a handicap…

He’ll be winning sooner rather than later – and George is capable of getting them ready to win first time out…

I’ll be very interested to see how Un Prophet gets on in the handicap chase at 2:50.

Most of Venetias seasonal debutantes have appeared to need the run – and that seems to be the case with Un Prophet at Fakenham.

It will be interesting to see how much that run has brought him on…

In truth, it’s a race where I could make a case for most of the runners – but the other one of particular interest, is De Faoithesdream.

He is handicapped to win – and whilst he may not do so tomorrow – if he were to get an uncontested lead (unlikely with Get Rhythm in the field), he is likely to prove difficult to pass…

Sirop de Menthe is the one I’ll be keeping an eye on in the 3:20 contest.

I was a fan of the horse 2 seasons ago – though my love of him waned a little last season, when he beat a horse I’d tipped, on his seasonal debut !

He runs from a mark 4lb lower tomorrow - so if he returns in the same form, he should go very close.

That said, there are a few unexposed horses up against him, so it’s not a race you could feel confident about…

At Huntingdon, the most valuable race of the day, is run at 2:10.

I’d like to offer something to take on Call me Lord, as he looks very short at 8/11 (particularly as he’s only a 4 year old).

However, the race doesn’t have great strength in depth, so there’s a fair chance he will prove good enough to win.
Certainly the form of his UK debut win at Sandown last spring, is strong – so if he’s improved for that (which you would expect to be the case), he’s likely to be tough to beat…

I could be half tempted to take a risk on Cyrname in the novice handicap chase at 2:40.

I’m sure he has sufficient ability to defy his current mark – though getting him to show it, is proving a bit tricky,

The horse is very keen (which is why he wears a hood) and really doesn’t give himself a chance.

Maybe fences and Sean Bowen will do the trick – 9/2 to find out, is moderately tempting…

Finally, I’ll be surprised if Cheltenham de Vaige is beaten in the 3:10 race.

He travelled supremely well on his debut for Fergal O’Brien last time, but maybe just needed the run.
I suspect he’ll be straighter tomorrow –and the extra half mile will also help.

He’s a best price of 6/4 – which seems crazy in a 15 runner handicap – but I struggle to see him getting beaten.

Monday November 13th

Review 

Eyesopenwideawake was sent off 5/1 jt fav at Kempton – and proceeded to make all.

If it hadn’t been for the huge market drift this morning, there would barely be a story to tell !

I guess it just shows that not all market moves are equal !!

Non of the three that I offered against the market leaders, really featured in the 1:50 race.

Duke Debarry did best of the trio (as the market suggested he would) but he could only finish a well beaten fourth…

Somewhat amusingly, You’re so Right returned with a BSP of 470 !

I think it’s fair to say he wasn’t fancied !

In the circumstances, he ran quite well (certainly better than most 470/1 shots !) – and could be one to keep an eye on…

For a horse who was likely to need the run, Le Breuil was surprisingly well backed, in the 2:55.

It’s normally the late money that counts – and the strength of late support (7/1 in to 4/1) led me to believe that he was fitter than connections were suggesting.

He ran a really big race as well – but ultimately, in fairness to Ben Pauling, it did look as if he needed the run.

He’ll be some kind of certainty next time (my guess is at the Newbury, Hennessy meeting).

Kings Tempest was weak in the betting – and never looked likely to win the finale…

Unless there is some rapid improvement, Warren Greatrex may soon be feeling a little anxious..!

At Carlisle, Brio Conti and Nuts Well duly completed a short priced double – though not quite as easily as their odds implied would be the case.

Kings Odyssey ran a very nice race against Nuts Well, and is certainly one to bear in mind next time, over a longer trip…

Despite being very well backed, Danny Cook couldn’t get Dartford Warbler into a race controlling position – and he never really featured.

There will doubtless be a day for him soon – in slightly calmer waters…

Finally, the days Lunchtime Nap, Tepak, was baulked at around half way – and completely lost his position.
In truth, if he had been travelling well enough, it wouldn’t have happened, so he can’t be considered unlucky.

Hopefully tomorrows Nap will do a little better !! 

Lunchtime Update

The movements of the market can be as baffling as they are fascinating – and that has certainly been the case this morning..!

In the 1:20 at Kempton, Eyesopenwideawake was a 4/1 shot last night – which seemed a little short, but not too surprising.

However, he drifted like a barge this morning, out to 11/1 (14 on BF).

That made me feel that someone knew something wasn’t right…

However, at around 11:30, he was backed in from 11/1 to 7/1 at best !

I’ve honestly no idea what is going on (unless he was tipped at around 11:30).

It will be fascinating to see his price at the off…

In the 1:50 race, only Duke Debarry has been backed, of the 3 I mentioned.

I remain mildly interested in Earth Storm however – even if he can be backed at 50 on BF !

Le Breiul drifted a little last night – but has been relatively strong this morning.

If the market strength is maintained to the off, I think he will win.

Nothing to report on Kings Tempest !

At Carlisle, Shades of Midnight is weak – and you have to think that Brio Conti will take a bit of beating (as you would expect of a 1/2 shot !)

Similarly, Kings Odyssey is weak, suggesting that Nuts Well is going to be tough to beat…

Dartford Warbler has been well backed in the 3:10 race.

It certainly won’t surprise me if Danny Cook manages to find a way to get him home in front.

Finally, there hasn’t been as much money as I would have expected for Tepak in the bumper.

He’s been backed a little but 12/1 is still on offer and that seems like fair value…

To help give the mid-week blog a bit more focus, I’m going to introduce a ‘Lunchtime nap’ ! (I think the concept could catch on !).

Based on the study from the evening before – and the market moves of the morning – it will pick out the horse I would be most inclined to back at the odds generally available at lunch time (the Fair Price).

There will only be a Lunchtime nap on days when I post on the mid-week blog – but I will monitor the success of the naps, at Fair Price and at BSP – and post on a monthly basis…

Todays Lunchtime Nap is: Tepak 3:40 Carlisle (Fair Price 12/1)

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow – at Kempton and Carlisle – and there are races of interest, at both courses…

The card at Kempton is a bit weird, with 3 of the 7 races, virtual matches.

However the other 4 are all competitive events…

I wouldn’t really want to call the novice handicap chase at 1:20 – but if forced, I would opt for Eyesopenwideawake.

He makes his fencing debut under rules tomorrow, but has won a PTP in Ireland (so can evidently jump) – and showed a good attitude when winning a novice hurdle at Southwell.

It’s hard to judge what a fair price would be – but anything above 5/1 would seem reasonable…

In the novice hurdle at 1:50, Black Mischief, Secret Investor and Way Back Then, dominate the betting.

However, there are others in the race at bigger odds, which also look interesting…

Duke Debarry, Earth Storm and Youre so Right all appear to have a chance of sorts – and all 3 are likely to be available at double figure prices…

The best race of the day takes place at 2:55.

Bags Groove was an impressive winner last time at Aintree; whilst Who dares Wins finished third in last seasons Coral cup at the Cheltenham festival.

They set a decent standard - but Le Breuil could easily eclipse it.

He trounced Benetar off level weights at Newbury last season – and that one is now rated 148 over fences.

Le Breiul gets in off 139 tomorrow – and if connections have him ready to go, then he could dot up.
Ben Pauling has issued a warning about the horses fitness - though I'd be more inclined to be guided by the market !

Finally in the 4:00, Warren Greatrex said that if he couldn’t get Kings Tempest to win a handicap off its current mark, then he should be shot.

No pressure then Warren..!!

Over at Carlisle, I could be interested in Shades of Midnight, in the novice chase at 1:30.

However, I suspect he will need the run (unless the market says otherwise), so he’s more likely to be one for next time.

Assuming that is the case, then Brio Conti will be hard to beat.

Similarly, in the 2:35, Kings Oddysey is probably one for next time.

He suggested at huge ability a couple of seasons back – but didn’t deliver last season.

2 miles will be too short for him tomorrow - but a good run could easily see his career back on track.

I could fancy Dartford Warbler in the 3:10 – if I thought he was going to get an uncontested lead.

He won off a higher mark at Market Rasen a couple of seasons back, under a trademark forceful ride from Danny Cook.

However, he will face competition for the lead tomorrow, from both Argentix and Brother Scot.

If Cook can find a way to navigate that issue, he could be too good for his rivals – I  would just be keener on his chances, if he didn’t have that potential issue to overcome.

Finally, Shamilan has been well backed for the closing bumper (3:40) – presumably on account of Ronald O’Learys excellent record in the UK with bumper debutants.
He may well be good enough – but at the prices, I’m far more interested in Henry Dalys Tepak.
Daly does quite well with bumper horses himself – and he’s sent this one a long way (from Shropshire).

The horse was thought good enough to makes its debut in a particularly strong bumper at Newbury – and whilst he never featured in that race, he did still finish mid division.

This will be much easier – and with that experience under his belt, there is no way he should be a 16/1 chance (which is the price he can be backed at this evening).

Thursday November 9th

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Review 

Aside from Cheltenham, there are few better courses in the country to watch jump racing, than Newbury – and it was great to see some decent horses competing there, this afternoon…

In the handicap hurdle at 1:10, Onefitzall fell at around halfway – which was ironic, as I thought he’d jumped particularly well until that point (though that can sometimes happen).

That said, he was weak in the late betting, so I wasn’t overly optimistic that he was going to win – despite the fact that trainer, Philip Hobbs, subsequently managed to notch a treble on the card…

The other 2 horses mentioned last night, Dell Arca and Whataknight, ended up finishing first and second the race - which only compounded the frustration !

It was a similar story in the next race, where Henri Parry Morgan showed himself back to close to his best - but was unfortunate to bump into one, in the shape of Willie Boy.

All of Venetias having been running as if they needed the outing – and Willie Boy was harried for the lead throughout.

It therefore says much for his ability that he not only won that battle - but then had enough left to fend off host of challenger up the straight.

In addition to the first 2 home, I was also taken by the runs of the third and the fourth.

I suspect it was strong form, for the grade…

Despite the fall of favourite, Topofthegame, Beat That didn’t manage to beat a rival in the beginners chase.

His jumping wasn’t great – but if he retained his old engine, I still think he would have won.

The conclusion has to be that he’s simply nowhere near as good as he once was…

In the closing bumper, Nicky Henderson’s Burrows Edge remained very strong in the market – eventually sent off the 7/4 favourite.

By contrast, his stable companion, Du Destin, was a weak 10/1 shot (16 on BF).

And not too surprisingly, it was the former who went close to winning – denied only by Tidal Flow.

One of the other nominated dangers, Dont Ask, also ran well, to finish third…

Over at Market Rasen, Briary Belle was very weak in the market for the mares chase.

That’s always a danger at this time of year, when you are dealing with lots of seasonal debutantes.

And sure enough, she ran as if she needed the race – never really threatening to get involved.

With the run under her belt, I’m sure she’ll be better able to do herself justice, next time.

Just so you are aware, there will be no previews on the blog, for the next few days…

It’s been a relatively short week, blog-wise – due to the Haldon Gold cup meeting at Exeter on Tuesday (which I previewed for the subscription service).

I’ll be spending tomorrow studying the form for the weekends ‘Big’ races – and then tipping/writing things up, on Saturday and Sunday.

I should be back posting on the blog on Monday though – when there looks to be a couple of fair meetings at Kempton and Carlisle…

Lunchtime Update

At Newbury, Onefitzall can still be backed at 5/1 in the 1:10 race – and that holds some appeal.

The morning support has been for Beneagles and Whataknight – and both can definitely be given a chance.

Henri Parry Morgan has been hammered in the morning market (1:40) – and is now a 3/1 shot (half the price he was available at last night).

However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the money is tipster driven: he’s so well handicapped, anyone was even a rudimentary understanding of the form book, is likely to be all over him.

It will be interesting to see how strong he is in the market, close to the off…

Fortunate George has held his place in the market – which is arguably more interesting.

Whilst Crosspark has been very well backed (considering he has a preference for heavy ground – and he won’t get it).

Beat That has been strong in the market for the 2:45 (in to 5/2).

He seems to have Topofthegame to beat (assuming he gets round OK !).

Burrows Edge has maintained his position at the head of the market for the closing bumper.

I thought that stablemate Du Destin, might prove more popular – but that’s not been the case…

Cuddles McGraw is the one for money: he has halved in price from 14/1 last night to 7/1 now.

The Fergal O’Brien horses have been in excellent form – so the money could simply be in response to that…

Over at Market Rasen, Briery Belle has remained solid in the market for the mares chase (2:00).

I will be interested to see whether there is any late money for her…

Evening Preview 

There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow; at Newbury, Market Rasen and Ludlow in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

There is some decent racing as well, for a Thursday – especially at Newbury…

The first race of particular interest, is the Pertemps qualifier, off at 1:10.

These are never easy races to solve – but I do like the look of Onefitzall in this one.
He was a good winner over the course, last November and must have every chance of repeating the dose tomorrow, off a mark just 4lb higher.

He’s a horse who seems to perform best fresh – and whilst he has an additional 4 furlongs to travel tomorrow, I doubt that will be an issue.

He can be backed at 5/1 this evening, which seems fair…

I would expect Dell ‘Arca to run his race: and Whataknight also has a chance – but Onefitzall definitely looks the one to beat…

In the following race (1:40) Henri Parry Morgan is the one who appeals most…

He was sent off at 10/1 for last years Hennessy, off a mark 17lb higher than he races from tomorrow (and that excludes James Bowens 7lb claim !).

He disappointed that day – and that was the story for the rest of the season as well – but if Peter Bowen has him back to form tomorrow, I can’t see him getting beaten…

If that isn’t the case, then it looks an open contest.
Fortunate George looks over priced at 14/1.

He’s got limited experience over fences – but I thought he ran a decent race last time at Worcester.

This will be harder – but based on his hurdles form, he is well handicapped – and Newbury provides a fair jumping test.

I’ve always been a big fan of Beat That and he has a good chance of breaking his duck over fences in the Beginners chase at 2:45.
I honestly expected him to be contesting Grade 1 events by this point in his career - but injuries have plagued him.

He’s also fallen on his 2 starts this season – which isn’t great – but I can see Newbury suiting him, as a jumping test.

Topofthegame and Strong Pursuit won’t make things easy for him – but if the Beat That of old turns up, I think he'll be too good for them…

In the closing bumper, the early betting suggests that Burrows Edge is the one to beat. However, I’m not sure that he’ll turn out to be Nicky Hendersons number 1…

Du Destin has been the subject of rave stable reviews - and he could see significant market support tomorrow.

Whichever one of them is preferred by the betting, is likely to turn out to be the one to beat.
Of the others, then Tidal Flow, Cuddles McGraw and Don’t Ask, all look interesting…

Away from Newbury, then the best race of the day, takes place at Market Rasen…

The mares chase at 2:00 is a fascinating affair and a case can be made for most of the runners.

That said, I’m quite keen on the chances of Henrys Dalys Briary Belle…

She was an impressive winner of her first 2 stats over fences last season – before going off the boil a little.

If she returns in top form tomorrow, then I think she will take the beating – and a general 6/1 this evening, is quite an attractive price…

Wednesday November 8th

Review 

For a horse with a BSP of 130, Eddiemaurice ran really well at Chepstow this afternoon.
In truth, he never looked good enough to win – but with a bit of fortune, he could easily have placed.
On a more suitable course - and with better ground – he is definitely capable of scoring…

Swift Crusader was the best backed of the market leaders – and he went very close to collecting, just losing out to a power packed Dickie finish, on Itshard to No.

Eddiemaurices BSP was nothing compared to that of Catching On: he was sent off  at 200 !

But again, he ran much better than those odds suggested: travelling strongly into the straight (where he traded at 16 in-running) – before backing out of things.
If he wasn’t already an official eye catcher, he would be after today !

Mark my words, he’ll win a decent race before season is out – the tricky bit will be figuring out when – and then backing him at a reasonable price…

The race was won, with consummate ease, by Steely Addition.

He was one of the unexposed runners in the contest – and he clearly had pounds in hand of his mark.

The assessor is unlikely to take kindly to his romp !

Allchilledout drifted back out to 9/1 at the off – and ran like a horse in need of the outing…

That was a shame, as Daklondike bombed – and the places were all filled by horses that could be given a chance, pre-race…

Finally, in the bumper, Monks View drifted to 6/1 at the off (11 on BF !).

I can’t believe that I was laying him at 3 on BF last night (someone managed to lay him at 2.62 !).

Not surprisingly, he ended up well beaten…

Sunset Showdown was backed in to an equally silly 11/8 at the off (it was a competitive race) – and whilst he ran well, he could only finish fifth.
The race was won by Good Boy Bobby.

He looked a likely type on breeding – and had top connections.

The 8/1 available earlier in the day appeared attractive at the time – and so it proved !!

Lunchtime Update 

The ground at Chepstow is described as ‘soft’ – and that may be a bit much for Eddiemaurice (soft at Chepstow tends to be hard work !).

However, at 33/1, I might still be tempted by a tiny play – just in case !

The morning market hasn’t been particularly positive about either Muffins for Tea or Swift Crusader – with Capsy de Mee the one receiving support.

That said, I would expect market movements close to the off, to be more revealing…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:00, Catching On is a very weak 33/1 shot…

That doesn’t overly surprise me – and he probably won’t win.
However, he’s a horse who tends to travel powerfully though his races, so may be suitable for a pre-race back with a view to laying in-running…

The favourite, Red Rising, is another who has been relatively weak in the morning betting.
That could be because he was installed quite short in the early market.

His strength (or otherwise) close to the off, is likely to reveal his fate…

Allchilledout has been backed down to 7/1 in the 3:40 race – thereby lessening the EW appal.

Favourite, Daklondike, has remained strong at 5/4 – though that could easily be due to the fact that Andy Holding has tipped him…

Finally, I was very pleased with my reading of the market for the closing bumper…

Sunset Showdown has now usurped Monks View a the head of the market – and I can back the latter at 7/2 (if I wish), having layed him last night at 2/1…

I’ll probably do that – and also have a small dabble on Good boy Bobby, who strikes me as Sunset Showdowns biggest danger…

Evening Preview 

There was a glut of big races over the weekend – and the Haldon Gold Cup today – but it’s back down to earth tomorrow, with meetings at Musselburgh and Chepstow…

The former holds little appeal: but there are a few races of interest, at the Welsh Venue…

In the handicap chase at 2:00, I’m strangely drawn to outsider, Eddiemaurice.

His chance will diminish if the going is really soft (and that could well be the case) – but on decent ground, I think he would have a definite chance.
Certainly, his hurdle form compares favourably to that of most of his rivals - even if he lacks the scope of some of them.

The top 2: Swift Crusader And Muffins for Tea, have the greatest potential – and they will probably handle soft ground. That said they are both already pretty short in the betting…

There’s an official TVB eye catcher running in the 3:10 – in the shape of Catching On…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter, travelling nicely until lack of a recent run took its toll.

I would expect him to do better tomorrow – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him place.
Certainly he’ll handle the ground if it gets very soft – and he won’t want for stamina…

The main issue is that he faces a couple of up-and–coming rivals in the shape of Red Rising and Steely Addition.

Both are un-exposed - and the former in particular, could be anything.
The other slight concern, is that Jonjo is letting Richie McLernan take the ride - and if he was really serious about Catching On, I suspect he would have a 10lb claimer in the saddle (or maybe Aiden Coleman)…

I guess the object of tomorrow may simply be, to get a few more pounds off his rating…

The handicap chase at 3:40 doesn’t look a particularly strong event.

It’s possible to put a line through at least half of the field – leaving just 5 or 6 to focus on.

Maybe not too surprisingly, most of those are at the head of the market – though favourite Daklondike, looks plenty short enough at 11/8.

I’d be more inclined to back Allchilledout EW, at 10/1.

He ran very well over course and distance, back in January and if he can repeat that form tomorrow, he should go close,

The biggest concern is his fitness – and I would expect the market to advise on that, close to the off…

It strikes me as very significant that Barry Geraghty goes to Chepstow for just the one ride: Sunset Showdown in the bumper that closes the card.

The horse owned by JP McManus – and trained by Rebecca Curtis.

Curtis’s star is in the descendency at the moment – but she’s more than capable of getting a bumper horse ready for its debut – and Sunset Showdown strikes me as a fair bet at 4/1.

That said, this looks a competitive contest – with 5 or 6 very interesting runners.

Consequently, it strikes me as a wrong, that Monks View has been installed a 7/4 favourite.

True, his trainer Ben Pauling has been doing very well with his bumper horses recently – but that price looks too short.
I’ve actually been laying him on BF this evening at 2/1 (it’s far easy to lay a horse the evening before than it is to back one !).

I’ll be very surprised if he goes off at less than 3/1…

Thursday November 2nd

Review 

It turned out to be a bit of a dull day – in terms of the featured races…

Aside from Volt Face, all of the fancied market leaders were well backed (or very well backed !) – and duly obliged…

At Stratford, having drifted a little this morning, Starchitect was strong come the off and won tidily at 15/8.

I suspect he’ll get back the 3lb that the handicapper dropped him at the end of last season – plus maybe one or two more, for good measure !

I suspect that Mercian Prince was the one to take out of the race.
He was also relatively well backed – and shaped promisingly on his seasonal debut…

In the finale, Play the Ace was very well backed – and also won quite comfortably.
Unlike Starchitect, he was strong in the market this morning – and the support continued right to the off.

There were a couple of NRs – but they didn’t account for his price shortening from 11/4 early, to 6/4.

I think the key was the lack of fancied opposition against him.

I suspect he didn’t achieve a great deal in winning…

At Sedgefield, Volt Face was the one fancied horse on the day, to let down supporters…

In truth, he was under pressure from before the off, with second favourite Crackdeloust, very well backed (in to 2/1).

However he fell at the first which should have made things much easier for Volt Face.

That’s not how it turned out though.

Volt Face would have liked an uncontested lead, but Robbing the Prey harassed him throughout.

Robbing the Prey eventually won their private battle – but he had left himself vulnerable to late finisher, Beggars Wish and that one collared him close home.

Finally, Audacious Plan was backed as if defeat was out of the question and was  eventually sent off at 6/4.

Considering he had 3m5f to travel – and 21 fences to negotiate, that seemed like a crazy price !

In fairness, it didn’t seem quite so crazy approaching the last – and although he was chased all the way to the line by the very game Boric, he held on – with Delusionsofgrandeur back in third…

Just to say, I won’t be posting on the blog tomorrow (or indeed Saturday or Sunday !).

There is a very busy weekend on the horizon - packed full of ‘big’ races, which I need to give myself the maximum amount of time to preview.

Best of luck if you get involved… 

Lunchtime Update

There is precious little to report, in terms of market activity, for todays races of interest…

At Sedgefield, Volt Face and Creckdelout remain first and second favourite - at pretty much the prices they were available at last night.

Maybe there will be some late market activity…

Similarly, in the Durham National, at 3:10, Audacious Plan and Delusionofgrandeur continue to head the market – and at roughly the same prices as yesterday evening.

Smooth Stepper has apparently been backed with the bookmakers – but that’s not really reflected on BF.

Things have been a touch more interesting at Stratford – but only a little…

Starchitect doesn’t seem particularly strong in the 2:45 – with the Geegeez Geegee, the one for money.

Olivers Hill has drifted out to a backable 9/1 – and Whispering Harry is definitely worth a tiny play at 25/1+

Play the Ace has been very strong in the finale – and is now a general 2/1 shot.

Kalifourchon and Until Winning have received some support against him – but probably tipster inspired.

Again, any late money will be far more interesting…

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Clonmel in Ireland; plus Stratford and Sedgefield in the UK – and there are a couple of particularly interesting races at both of the UK meetings…

The handicap chase at Stratford (2:45) is arguably the best race of the day…

The most interesting runner is the David Pipe trained Starchitect.

He was sent off at just 6/1 for a 24 runner handicap, at last seasons Cheltenham festival – and finished a very creditable fifth.

He gets to run off a mark 3lb lower tomorrow – and if connections want, I suspect he will take the beating.

The question is whether connections will want to blow his handicap mark, for a first prize of just £6.5K.
He’s a 7/4 shot this evening – and the betting will likely tell…

In fairness, he does face some credible rivals: with Mercian Prince potentially the most interesting.

At a really big price, I could be tempted by Whispering Harry…

There are doubts over both the ground and the trip – though they may cancel each other out (from a stamina perspective).
He’s certainly well handicapped - and Henry Oliver has been in reasonable form.

At 20/1, he could be worth a small, speculative risk…

The other race of significant interest on the card, is the closing handicap chase (4:20).

Play the Ace is the safe call in this – though he is also favourite…

His fourth place at Market Rasen on his penultimate outing, is good form – and he runs from a mark 2lb lower tomorrow.

He also has James Bowen in the saddle, which adds to the appeal…

He’s an 11/4 shot this evening, which isn’t really an EW price – and that’s a shame, because it’s hard to see him out of the frame…

It’s less hard to see him beaten however, as there are a few potential dangers in the field.

Non of them are solid – but he certainly faces some rivals who could cause issues, if they arrive in top form…

In the opening race at Sedgefield (1:00), Volt Face is very much the one to beat.
He ran really well at Kempton last time and must have every chance of going one better tomorrow, off the same mark – and with Paul O’Brien on top, claiming 5lb…

The danger is, that the unexposed Crackdeloust will have been primed by Brian Ellison, for a race that he sponsors.

The betting will probably guide (Volt Face is 6/4 this evening and Crackdeloust, 7/2).

The Durham National is off at 3:10 – and Audacious Plan looks a worthy favourite.
That said, whether he is worthy enough to warrant backing at 5/2, is a different matter…

Again, the market seems to have it right, with second favourite, Delusionsofgrandeur looking the most likely danger…

At bigger prices, the Sue Smiths apparent second string, Smooth Stepper is of some interest (though Danny Cook does invariably ride the stables main hope).
Whilst Boric also holds a bit of appeal.

He should be better for a recent run and a price of 14/1 this evening, seems fair…

Wednesday November 1st

Review 

There were some bizarre market movements in todays ‘featured’ races – with most of them not easy to figure, even with the benefit of hindsight !

Lady of Longstone was sent off an incredibly well backed 11/4 shot, for the closing race at Taunton.

However, that doesn’t tell the whole story…

10 mins before the off, she had drifted out to 8/1 on BF – a bigger price than she had been available at this morning ! (after the R4).

Presumably that was just caused by market dynamics – as she was clearly well fancied – and in truth, a little unlucky not to win (she bumped into a massive improver).

Hopefully anyone who traded her in running, did OK (she went as low as 1.3)…

The market moves of Enjoy Responsibly, were almost as bizarre, at Fakenham…

He was the most interesting horse in the race, by some margin – though I did think, that if he was going to win, then he would be well backed…

In reality, he drifted from 7/2 at lunchtime, to 6/1 at the off (7/1 on BF) – before preceding to bolt up !

So much for ‘market intelligence’...!

You can only think that he needed the run – in which case, he could prove to be a pretty decent animal…

Earlier on the Fakenham card, Artifice Sivola had remained very solid in the betting – eventually being sent off 7/2 fav.

However, the race didn’t pan out in his favour, as he was never able to get to the front (which is how he likes to run).
He ran a reasonable race, but was beaten when falling at the third last.

Back at Taunton, Limoncello was too keen in first time blinkers – and didn’t last home.

I suspect he has ability – the trick will be harnessing it…

Finally, Nico de Boinville took the initiative early in the handicap hurdle at 3:20.

He controlled the pace of the race – and never looked likely to be passed.

There was always the distinct possibility that it was going to be that easy…

Lunchtime Update

Lady on Longstone has been absolutely hammered in the betting at Taunton, this morning…

She was a 12/1 shot last night – and still that price, in places, first thing morning.

However the money has come for her, since 8:00 – and she’s now a best price of 4/1.

Admittedly there has been a significant NR – but nowhere near significant enough to account for that kind of price crash !

It’s difficult to know what to make of the market move.
She is massively well handicapped – and if connections have her spot on, she really should dot up.

That said, any form student could tell you that – so there is also the possibility that the support is tipster driven.

As always, the key will be the late market: if her price holds (or even shortens), I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t win…

Zalvados is a NR in the 3:20 race – leaving a most unattractive 4 horse contest.

I still think race tactics will be key – so certainly wouldn’t be inclined to back either of the market leaders (in what could effectively become a lottery).

I’ll replace that race, as a race of interest, with the preceding one (2:50) – and offer Limoncello as the one of interest…

He was disappointing on his seasonal debut – but has still been backed this morning.

The same thing happened with Grand Coureur last week at Ludlow – and he should have won.

Maybe Limoncello will provide the stable with some compensation for that…

At Fakenham, Artifice Sivola is now a strong 7/2 shot (from 5/1 – and bigger – yesterday).
I can’t argue with that – even if I would struggle to support him at the price.

It’s also interesting to see that he’s still a 5/1 shot on BF.
There is a chance that he’s been backed too short, too early – and could therefore drift close to the off (which would make him more appealing).

In the 3:40 race, there has been a bit of money for Enjoy Responsibly (in to 7/2) – but I would expect even more, if he is going to win.

That’s the Deal is now a 15/2 shot - but he is almost certainly capable of drifting out further than that !!

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow, at Fakenham and Taunton – though not a lot to get excited about…

At Fakenham, there is a decent little handicap chase at 2:40, where I like the look of Artifice Sivola.
Fakenham is a very tight track, which tends to suit smaller, more nimble animals.

Artifice Sivola has already won 3 times around the circuit – and if he is fit enough to do himself justice and can get a good racing position, I wouldn’t bet against him making it 4.

He’s already been backed (it’s impossible to post early enough !) – but even at 5/1, he may not be a bad bet…

Enjoy Responsibly is the interesting one in the 3:40 race.

He’s making his debut for Oliver Sherwood (formerly trained by Sam Thomas), after 400 days off the track.
Sherwood is more than capable of getting one fit after an absence – but expect him to be backed if he’s ready…
The other one of interest is the 13 year old, That’s the Deal.

He bounced back to form on his most recent outing and is another with very good course form.

I could see his price drifting (currently 7/1 best), which could make him interesting…

The pickings are even more limited at Taunton.

There are only 5 runners for the handicap hurdle at 3:20 – and all of them prefer to be held up !
The chance of a farcical race, must be quite high…

In the circumstance, I might risk Zalvados – and hope Ian Popham takes the initiative.

Alternatively, I might just watch (and possibly back in-running, if any of the runners look like getting an uncontested lead).

Lady of Longstone is the one of interest in the closing contest.

She’s been badly out of form – but has consequently dropped to a mark 19lb lower than the one she last won from.
She showed a little more spark last time – and is now down in to a class 5 contest.

I can see her trying to make all – so at very least should be a good in running play.

The only concern (apart from her inconsistence !) is the presence of fellow front runner, Starlit Night.
Though at her peak Lady of Longstone would easily burn her off…