Wednesday November 15th

Review 

Plenty of todays winners got a positive mention in last nights preview – the tricky bit was figuring out the right ones to back !

As an aside: I’m sure a few of you are wondering how I myself, use the information that I post on the blog…

As you’ve probably figured out by now, most of my betting is done on BF – and from lunchtime onwards…

I tend to give myself a nominal £20 to risk on each race I preview – and I look to spread that money across the horses I’m interested in – balanced by how much I fancy them and the prices I can secure…

Taking the opener at Exeter today, as an example:

The main fancy was Forgetthesmalltalk – so I allocated £10 to him – and managed to get 5.5.

The next one of interest, was Present Time and I allocated £4 to him – and got an average of 22 (he was a drifter).

I didn’t want to lose on Trans Express – so there was £3 on him at 8.

And finally I had a speculative £2 on Bancos De Logos at 70.

I sometimes over-back horses, if I think their odds are too big and I believe I’ll be able to lay them back in-running (which you can normally do, if they race prominently or travel strongly – tho it’s not as easy as it used to be !).

Anyway, that’s the method I use – and it’s served me well for a number of years !

As for today: then Siruh du Lac was an impressive winner of the opener at Bangor.

I said last night that he was of interest at a big price (14/1) – and the money early this morning, simply re-enforced the interest…

I’ve no idea who backs a horse at 7:00 in the morning – but I’ve seen it happen before – and with the same end result !

The horse was a late drifter – which would generally concern me.

However, I suspect that may be explained by the fact he was awash with sweat when he arrived at the post.

He may have been worked up – but it didn’t stop him performing in the race and he won easily…

I suggested last night that The Nipper and Lady Buttons were over-priced in the mares chase.

I had a slight preference for the former – but it was the latter who attracted the most market support…

And the market was right, with her winning very tidily, on her chasing debut…

I was quite keen on Potters Cross in the 1:45 – whilst acknowledging that he might be vulnerable from a win perspective.

And that was how it panned out – with him running a fair race.

He only finished fourth – but was beaten just 5 lengths.

I’m sure he has a good race in him – though he might be the type who pops up when everyone has given up on him…

Noel Fehily gave a master class in riding a front runner, to get Dashing Oscar home in the 2:50.

I thought that Loverboy might be able to turn the tables on him – but Fehily perfectly judged the pace of the race.

There really is no one better in the game, given an uncontested lead…

At Exeter, in the opener, Present Times got the better of the Lunchtime Nap, Forgetthesmalltalk.

I’d marked the winner down as the main danger to the days nap – and hopefully a few of you covered on him, as his SP of 16/1 (BSP 25/1) was very generous…

Timons Tara never really featured in the handicap chase at 2:00 – whilst the jumping of the favourite, Jepeck, wasn’t good enough…

Another Venture ran a really sound race in the novice handicap chase at 2:30 – but bumped in to a better handicapped rival in the shape of Wotzizname.

That was always a distinct possibility.

Finally, Yanworth landed too steeply after jumping the sixth fence and crumpled on landing.

I wasn’t overly impressed by his jumping on his debut – and this did little to convince me that he’s a natural…

I suspect that he best chance of championship honours will be in the Stayers hurdle (though events out of his control are likely to decide whether he even runs in that race).

There will be no more posts on the blog until next week…

The 3 day Cheltenham November meeting starts on Friday – and my preparations for that, will begin in earnest, tomorrow lunchtime.

I know that most of the readers of this blog are already subscribers to the main TVB service – however for those of you who aren’t, I’m offering the opportunity for you to purchase a 3 day pass to the main TVB service, for the meeting.

It will cost £15 for the 3 days – and for that, you will receive a preview for each race, late on the race day morning – plus a review, after the days racing is complete.

I will also be issuing tips for some of the races – either the day before, or early on the race day morning (prior to issuing the preview).

I will only allow 10 people to buy passes – to be fair to the existing guys on the service.

If you would like to buy a pass – and effectively trial the main TVB service for a weekend - please make your payment of £15 via Paypal, to thevaluebettor@gmail.com.

Payments need to be received before midday tomorrow (Thursday 16^th November), if you want to be sure of receiving all of the official tips for the meeting.

For the rest of you – I hope you enjoy your weekend – and I’ll be back blogging next week !

Lunchtime Update

There has been a lot of activity in the morning markets – with a number of the horses that I high lighted last night, coming in for serious support…

Not more so, that Siruh du Lac in the opener at Bangor…

He was a 14/1 shot yesterday evening – but money came for him at 7:00 this morning, and his price was quickly halved !

He’s eased back out a little now, in the face of support for Just Georgie – and serious support for Agamemmom.

The later is now just 6/4 – having been 5/2 last night.

My feeling is that Agamemmom will take a bit of beating – but he’s evidently up against some fancied rivals…

In the mares chase, The Nipper has been quite well backed and is now an 11/2 shot.

I think that’s a fair enough price…

Support has continued for Potters Legend in the 1:45 – and he’s now best priced at 11/4.

It’s a competitive enough race and I suspect his price might ease slightly before the off.
I still think he’s the one to beat, however…

Bidbadjohn and Battle of Shiloh are the other 2 who have come in for market support – in line with my thinking yesterday evening…

The most significant market move in the 2:50, has been the support for Leoncavallo…

He was 12/1 last night – but is half that price now.

He’s well handicapped – so it could be tipster driven money.

His market strength close to the off is likely to sign post his fate…

Forgetthesmalltalk has been relatively weak in the market for the opener at Exeter, as support has come in for Trans Express and Albert Dolivate.

I respect the chance of them both – plus Present Times – but I still think Forgetthesmalltalk is the one to beat…

Timons Tara has been very weak in the betting for the 2:00.

I still think she’s a fair back to lay in running proposition – but I’ll be surprised if she comes home in front.

Jepeck has been well supported and remains the one to beat.

Another Venture has been surprisingly well backed in the 2:30 race.

I didn’t think his chance was that obvious – and it looks a very competitive race – so a market move from 10/1 to 5/1 seems significant.

I couldn’t back him at such a short price- so it’s now a watching race for me…

Finally, Yanworth has remained very solid in the betting for 3:00 – suggesting that neither of his 2 main rivals are particularly fancied to topple him…

Potters Legend was the other one under consideration – but todays Lunchtime Nap is:

Forgetthesmalltalk 12:50 Exeter (Fair Price 7/2)

Evening Preview 

There is plenty of NH racing again tomorrow, with 4 meetings: at Bangor, Exeter, Ayr and Fairyhouse.

The best quality racing takes place at the 2 English venues, with both hosting few decent quality - and intriguing - contests…

In the opener at Bangor (12:40), I’ll be interested to see if Truckers Tavern can follow up his last time out win at Worcester…

The booking of 5lb claimer, Alex Edwards, effectively offsets the rise in the handicap that he received for his win – so from a pure handicapping perspective, he’s got a good chance…

However, he’s a horse with breathing issues – so not guaranteed to maintain his form.

Furthermore, the 2m4f trip, may stretch him.

He should make a fair in-running play – but I’d worry slightly about his ability to last home (particularly as Just Georgie could well give him a tough time, up front)…

At a much bigger price, I’m quite interested in Siruh du Lac.

He disappointed on his chasing debut last time at Kempton, but it’s too early to be writing him off…

I think that the mares chase at 1:10, is more open than the betting suggests.

It’s possible to make a case for all 5 runners – and whilst the market probably has them in the right sequence, I think The Nipper and Lady Buttons are both potentially over-priced.

In fairness, neither is proven over a fence – so that is a concern.

However, if the do take to the larger obstacles, they are both good enough to put it up to the market leaders.

Of the 2, I would have a slight preference for The Nipper, who is a 7/1 shot this evening…

The best race of the day, takes place at 1:45 – but unfortunately, the horse I fancy most for it, has already been very well backed…

Potters Legend has some very strong form from last season – and ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.
Everything looks perfect for him tomorrow - and the early 6/1 about his chances was a bit of a gift.

You’ll struggle to beat 3/1 now – and that looks about right.

I can’t see him not running his race – though there is a chance that he’ll be vulnerable form a win perspective.

Most of his rivals can be given a chance – with Battle of Shiloh and Bigbadjohn, looking the ones most likely, if Potters Legend is beaten.

At the likely prices, I can see myself getting drawn to Bigbadjohn.

He has a lot of ability – and tomorrows smaller field could prove crucial for him (he’s tended to struggle in big field races).

There’s an interesting handicap hurdle at 2:50 – in which a chance can be given to most of the runners…

Dashing Oscar has been installed favourite - but I’m not sure he’ll confirm last time out Fontwell form with Loverboy…

Certainly the latter makes the greater appeal at respective prices (3/1 and 7/1)…

I could see Bobo Mac out-running his odds (currently 12/1); whilst Leoncavallo is one to keep a close eye on in the betting…

Over at Exeter, favourite Forgetthesmalltalk, looks the one to beat in the opener (12:50).

He finished behind Midnight Request last time, but I would expect him to reverse the form tomorrow.

I’m actually quite keen on his chances – though he does face a few interesting looking rivals.

Present Times heads that list; followed by Trans Express.

I could also see Banco des Logos running better than his odds suggest…

At any price greater than 3/1, I think Forgetthesmalltalk is worth a risk.

In the handicap chase at 2:00, I would expect Timons Tara to run well.

She did so on her seasonal debut at Uttoxeter – and tomorrows softer ground will suit her better.

I have a slight concern over her stamina – but she’s another who should travel well (making her suitable for an in running play).

Jepeck is probably the one to beat – though he’s impossible to assess form-wise, so will have to be monitored in the betting…

There’s a really interesting novice handicap chase at 2:30.

It’s impossible to be categoric about the outcome – but I suspect the line-up contains  plenty of future winners.

As for tomorrow, then I would maybe take a chance on Another Venture.
He ran a reasonable race on his chain debut at Uttoxeter – and I can see him stepping up on that over a longer trip and on softer ground.

He’s a fair price this evening, at 10/1 – particularly considering the form of his stable.

That said, there is a chance that the likes of Longtown, Buster Thomas, Wicked Willie and a few of the others (!), could be a good bit better than their current marks.
I doubt they all will be – but equally, I’ll be surprised if one or two aren’t…

Finally, Yanworth has his second outing over fences in the 3:00 – and he will probably win.
However, he faces a couple of rivals, who on paper at least, should provide a stern test.

His experience and race fitness are likely to be decisive – but I wouldn’t be taking silly odds about him coming home in front…