Wednesday November 1st

Review 

There were some bizarre market movements in todays ‘featured’ races – with most of them not easy to figure, even with the benefit of hindsight !

Lady of Longstone was sent off an incredibly well backed 11/4 shot, for the closing race at Taunton.

However, that doesn’t tell the whole story…

10 mins before the off, she had drifted out to 8/1 on BF – a bigger price than she had been available at this morning ! (after the R4).

Presumably that was just caused by market dynamics – as she was clearly well fancied – and in truth, a little unlucky not to win (she bumped into a massive improver).

Hopefully anyone who traded her in running, did OK (she went as low as 1.3)…

The market moves of Enjoy Responsibly, were almost as bizarre, at Fakenham…

He was the most interesting horse in the race, by some margin – though I did think, that if he was going to win, then he would be well backed…

In reality, he drifted from 7/2 at lunchtime, to 6/1 at the off (7/1 on BF) – before preceding to bolt up !

So much for ‘market intelligence’...!

You can only think that he needed the run – in which case, he could prove to be a pretty decent animal…

Earlier on the Fakenham card, Artifice Sivola had remained very solid in the betting – eventually being sent off 7/2 fav.

However, the race didn’t pan out in his favour, as he was never able to get to the front (which is how he likes to run).
He ran a reasonable race, but was beaten when falling at the third last.

Back at Taunton, Limoncello was too keen in first time blinkers – and didn’t last home.

I suspect he has ability – the trick will be harnessing it…

Finally, Nico de Boinville took the initiative early in the handicap hurdle at 3:20.

He controlled the pace of the race – and never looked likely to be passed.

There was always the distinct possibility that it was going to be that easy…

Lunchtime Update

Lady on Longstone has been absolutely hammered in the betting at Taunton, this morning…

She was a 12/1 shot last night – and still that price, in places, first thing morning.

However the money has come for her, since 8:00 – and she’s now a best price of 4/1.

Admittedly there has been a significant NR – but nowhere near significant enough to account for that kind of price crash !

It’s difficult to know what to make of the market move.
She is massively well handicapped – and if connections have her spot on, she really should dot up.

That said, any form student could tell you that – so there is also the possibility that the support is tipster driven.

As always, the key will be the late market: if her price holds (or even shortens), I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t win…

Zalvados is a NR in the 3:20 race – leaving a most unattractive 4 horse contest.

I still think race tactics will be key – so certainly wouldn’t be inclined to back either of the market leaders (in what could effectively become a lottery).

I’ll replace that race, as a race of interest, with the preceding one (2:50) – and offer Limoncello as the one of interest…

He was disappointing on his seasonal debut – but has still been backed this morning.

The same thing happened with Grand Coureur last week at Ludlow – and he should have won.

Maybe Limoncello will provide the stable with some compensation for that…

At Fakenham, Artifice Sivola is now a strong 7/2 shot (from 5/1 – and bigger – yesterday).
I can’t argue with that – even if I would struggle to support him at the price.

It’s also interesting to see that he’s still a 5/1 shot on BF.
There is a chance that he’s been backed too short, too early – and could therefore drift close to the off (which would make him more appealing).

In the 3:40 race, there has been a bit of money for Enjoy Responsibly (in to 7/2) – but I would expect even more, if he is going to win.

That’s the Deal is now a 15/2 shot - but he is almost certainly capable of drifting out further than that !!

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow, at Fakenham and Taunton – though not a lot to get excited about…

At Fakenham, there is a decent little handicap chase at 2:40, where I like the look of Artifice Sivola.
Fakenham is a very tight track, which tends to suit smaller, more nimble animals.

Artifice Sivola has already won 3 times around the circuit – and if he is fit enough to do himself justice and can get a good racing position, I wouldn’t bet against him making it 4.

He’s already been backed (it’s impossible to post early enough !) – but even at 5/1, he may not be a bad bet…

Enjoy Responsibly is the interesting one in the 3:40 race.

He’s making his debut for Oliver Sherwood (formerly trained by Sam Thomas), after 400 days off the track.
Sherwood is more than capable of getting one fit after an absence – but expect him to be backed if he’s ready…
The other one of interest is the 13 year old, That’s the Deal.

He bounced back to form on his most recent outing and is another with very good course form.

I could see his price drifting (currently 7/1 best), which could make him interesting…

The pickings are even more limited at Taunton.

There are only 5 runners for the handicap hurdle at 3:20 – and all of them prefer to be held up !
The chance of a farcical race, must be quite high…

In the circumstance, I might risk Zalvados – and hope Ian Popham takes the initiative.

Alternatively, I might just watch (and possibly back in-running, if any of the runners look like getting an uncontested lead).

Lady of Longstone is the one of interest in the closing contest.

She’s been badly out of form – but has consequently dropped to a mark 19lb lower than the one she last won from.
She showed a little more spark last time – and is now down in to a class 5 contest.

I can see her trying to make all – so at very least should be a good in running play.

The only concern (apart from her inconsistence !) is the presence of fellow front runner, Starlit Night.
Though at her peak Lady of Longstone would easily burn her off…