Wednesday November 8th

Review 

For a horse with a BSP of 130, Eddiemaurice ran really well at Chepstow this afternoon.
In truth, he never looked good enough to win – but with a bit of fortune, he could easily have placed.
On a more suitable course - and with better ground – he is definitely capable of scoring…

Swift Crusader was the best backed of the market leaders – and he went very close to collecting, just losing out to a power packed Dickie finish, on Itshard to No.

Eddiemaurices BSP was nothing compared to that of Catching On: he was sent off  at 200 !

But again, he ran much better than those odds suggested: travelling strongly into the straight (where he traded at 16 in-running) – before backing out of things.
If he wasn’t already an official eye catcher, he would be after today !

Mark my words, he’ll win a decent race before season is out – the tricky bit will be figuring out when – and then backing him at a reasonable price…

The race was won, with consummate ease, by Steely Addition.

He was one of the unexposed runners in the contest – and he clearly had pounds in hand of his mark.

The assessor is unlikely to take kindly to his romp !

Allchilledout drifted back out to 9/1 at the off – and ran like a horse in need of the outing…

That was a shame, as Daklondike bombed – and the places were all filled by horses that could be given a chance, pre-race…

Finally, in the bumper, Monks View drifted to 6/1 at the off (11 on BF !).

I can’t believe that I was laying him at 3 on BF last night (someone managed to lay him at 2.62 !).

Not surprisingly, he ended up well beaten…

Sunset Showdown was backed in to an equally silly 11/8 at the off (it was a competitive race) – and whilst he ran well, he could only finish fifth.
The race was won by Good Boy Bobby.

He looked a likely type on breeding – and had top connections.

The 8/1 available earlier in the day appeared attractive at the time – and so it proved !!

Lunchtime Update 

The ground at Chepstow is described as ‘soft’ – and that may be a bit much for Eddiemaurice (soft at Chepstow tends to be hard work !).

However, at 33/1, I might still be tempted by a tiny play – just in case !

The morning market hasn’t been particularly positive about either Muffins for Tea or Swift Crusader – with Capsy de Mee the one receiving support.

That said, I would expect market movements close to the off, to be more revealing…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:00, Catching On is a very weak 33/1 shot…

That doesn’t overly surprise me – and he probably won’t win.
However, he’s a horse who tends to travel powerfully though his races, so may be suitable for a pre-race back with a view to laying in-running…

The favourite, Red Rising, is another who has been relatively weak in the morning betting.
That could be because he was installed quite short in the early market.

His strength (or otherwise) close to the off, is likely to reveal his fate…

Allchilledout has been backed down to 7/1 in the 3:40 race – thereby lessening the EW appal.

Favourite, Daklondike, has remained strong at 5/4 – though that could easily be due to the fact that Andy Holding has tipped him…

Finally, I was very pleased with my reading of the market for the closing bumper…

Sunset Showdown has now usurped Monks View a the head of the market – and I can back the latter at 7/2 (if I wish), having layed him last night at 2/1…

I’ll probably do that – and also have a small dabble on Good boy Bobby, who strikes me as Sunset Showdowns biggest danger…

Evening Preview 

There was a glut of big races over the weekend – and the Haldon Gold Cup today – but it’s back down to earth tomorrow, with meetings at Musselburgh and Chepstow…

The former holds little appeal: but there are a few races of interest, at the Welsh Venue…

In the handicap chase at 2:00, I’m strangely drawn to outsider, Eddiemaurice.

His chance will diminish if the going is really soft (and that could well be the case) – but on decent ground, I think he would have a definite chance.
Certainly, his hurdle form compares favourably to that of most of his rivals - even if he lacks the scope of some of them.

The top 2: Swift Crusader And Muffins for Tea, have the greatest potential – and they will probably handle soft ground. That said they are both already pretty short in the betting…

There’s an official TVB eye catcher running in the 3:10 – in the shape of Catching On…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter, travelling nicely until lack of a recent run took its toll.

I would expect him to do better tomorrow – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him place.
Certainly he’ll handle the ground if it gets very soft – and he won’t want for stamina…

The main issue is that he faces a couple of up-and–coming rivals in the shape of Red Rising and Steely Addition.

Both are un-exposed - and the former in particular, could be anything.
The other slight concern, is that Jonjo is letting Richie McLernan take the ride - and if he was really serious about Catching On, I suspect he would have a 10lb claimer in the saddle (or maybe Aiden Coleman)…

I guess the object of tomorrow may simply be, to get a few more pounds off his rating…

The handicap chase at 3:40 doesn’t look a particularly strong event.

It’s possible to put a line through at least half of the field – leaving just 5 or 6 to focus on.

Maybe not too surprisingly, most of those are at the head of the market – though favourite Daklondike, looks plenty short enough at 11/8.

I’d be more inclined to back Allchilledout EW, at 10/1.

He ran very well over course and distance, back in January and if he can repeat that form tomorrow, he should go close,

The biggest concern is his fitness – and I would expect the market to advise on that, close to the off…

It strikes me as very significant that Barry Geraghty goes to Chepstow for just the one ride: Sunset Showdown in the bumper that closes the card.

The horse owned by JP McManus – and trained by Rebecca Curtis.

Curtis’s star is in the descendency at the moment – but she’s more than capable of getting a bumper horse ready for its debut – and Sunset Showdown strikes me as a fair bet at 4/1.

That said, this looks a competitive contest – with 5 or 6 very interesting runners.

Consequently, it strikes me as a wrong, that Monks View has been installed a 7/4 favourite.

True, his trainer Ben Pauling has been doing very well with his bumper horses recently – but that price looks too short.
I’ve actually been laying him on BF this evening at 2/1 (it’s far easy to lay a horse the evening before than it is to back one !).

I’ll be very surprised if he goes off at less than 3/1…