Monday November 13th

Review 

Eyesopenwideawake was sent off 5/1 jt fav at Kempton – and proceeded to make all.

If it hadn’t been for the huge market drift this morning, there would barely be a story to tell !

I guess it just shows that not all market moves are equal !!

Non of the three that I offered against the market leaders, really featured in the 1:50 race.

Duke Debarry did best of the trio (as the market suggested he would) but he could only finish a well beaten fourth…

Somewhat amusingly, You’re so Right returned with a BSP of 470 !

I think it’s fair to say he wasn’t fancied !

In the circumstances, he ran quite well (certainly better than most 470/1 shots !) – and could be one to keep an eye on…

For a horse who was likely to need the run, Le Breuil was surprisingly well backed, in the 2:55.

It’s normally the late money that counts – and the strength of late support (7/1 in to 4/1) led me to believe that he was fitter than connections were suggesting.

He ran a really big race as well – but ultimately, in fairness to Ben Pauling, it did look as if he needed the run.

He’ll be some kind of certainty next time (my guess is at the Newbury, Hennessy meeting).

Kings Tempest was weak in the betting – and never looked likely to win the finale…

Unless there is some rapid improvement, Warren Greatrex may soon be feeling a little anxious..!

At Carlisle, Brio Conti and Nuts Well duly completed a short priced double – though not quite as easily as their odds implied would be the case.

Kings Odyssey ran a very nice race against Nuts Well, and is certainly one to bear in mind next time, over a longer trip…

Despite being very well backed, Danny Cook couldn’t get Dartford Warbler into a race controlling position – and he never really featured.

There will doubtless be a day for him soon – in slightly calmer waters…

Finally, the days Lunchtime Nap, Tepak, was baulked at around half way – and completely lost his position.
In truth, if he had been travelling well enough, it wouldn’t have happened, so he can’t be considered unlucky.

Hopefully tomorrows Nap will do a little better !! 

Lunchtime Update

The movements of the market can be as baffling as they are fascinating – and that has certainly been the case this morning..!

In the 1:20 at Kempton, Eyesopenwideawake was a 4/1 shot last night – which seemed a little short, but not too surprising.

However, he drifted like a barge this morning, out to 11/1 (14 on BF).

That made me feel that someone knew something wasn’t right…

However, at around 11:30, he was backed in from 11/1 to 7/1 at best !

I’ve honestly no idea what is going on (unless he was tipped at around 11:30).

It will be fascinating to see his price at the off…

In the 1:50 race, only Duke Debarry has been backed, of the 3 I mentioned.

I remain mildly interested in Earth Storm however – even if he can be backed at 50 on BF !

Le Breiul drifted a little last night – but has been relatively strong this morning.

If the market strength is maintained to the off, I think he will win.

Nothing to report on Kings Tempest !

At Carlisle, Shades of Midnight is weak – and you have to think that Brio Conti will take a bit of beating (as you would expect of a 1/2 shot !)

Similarly, Kings Odyssey is weak, suggesting that Nuts Well is going to be tough to beat…

Dartford Warbler has been well backed in the 3:10 race.

It certainly won’t surprise me if Danny Cook manages to find a way to get him home in front.

Finally, there hasn’t been as much money as I would have expected for Tepak in the bumper.

He’s been backed a little but 12/1 is still on offer and that seems like fair value…

To help give the mid-week blog a bit more focus, I’m going to introduce a ‘Lunchtime nap’ ! (I think the concept could catch on !).

Based on the study from the evening before – and the market moves of the morning – it will pick out the horse I would be most inclined to back at the odds generally available at lunch time (the Fair Price).

There will only be a Lunchtime nap on days when I post on the mid-week blog – but I will monitor the success of the naps, at Fair Price and at BSP – and post on a monthly basis…

Todays Lunchtime Nap is: Tepak 3:40 Carlisle (Fair Price 12/1)

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow – at Kempton and Carlisle – and there are races of interest, at both courses…

The card at Kempton is a bit weird, with 3 of the 7 races, virtual matches.

However the other 4 are all competitive events…

I wouldn’t really want to call the novice handicap chase at 1:20 – but if forced, I would opt for Eyesopenwideawake.

He makes his fencing debut under rules tomorrow, but has won a PTP in Ireland (so can evidently jump) – and showed a good attitude when winning a novice hurdle at Southwell.

It’s hard to judge what a fair price would be – but anything above 5/1 would seem reasonable…

In the novice hurdle at 1:50, Black Mischief, Secret Investor and Way Back Then, dominate the betting.

However, there are others in the race at bigger odds, which also look interesting…

Duke Debarry, Earth Storm and Youre so Right all appear to have a chance of sorts – and all 3 are likely to be available at double figure prices…

The best race of the day takes place at 2:55.

Bags Groove was an impressive winner last time at Aintree; whilst Who dares Wins finished third in last seasons Coral cup at the Cheltenham festival.

They set a decent standard - but Le Breuil could easily eclipse it.

He trounced Benetar off level weights at Newbury last season – and that one is now rated 148 over fences.

Le Breiul gets in off 139 tomorrow – and if connections have him ready to go, then he could dot up.
Ben Pauling has issued a warning about the horses fitness - though I'd be more inclined to be guided by the market !

Finally in the 4:00, Warren Greatrex said that if he couldn’t get Kings Tempest to win a handicap off its current mark, then he should be shot.

No pressure then Warren..!!

Over at Carlisle, I could be interested in Shades of Midnight, in the novice chase at 1:30.

However, I suspect he will need the run (unless the market says otherwise), so he’s more likely to be one for next time.

Assuming that is the case, then Brio Conti will be hard to beat.

Similarly, in the 2:35, Kings Oddysey is probably one for next time.

He suggested at huge ability a couple of seasons back – but didn’t deliver last season.

2 miles will be too short for him tomorrow - but a good run could easily see his career back on track.

I could fancy Dartford Warbler in the 3:10 – if I thought he was going to get an uncontested lead.

He won off a higher mark at Market Rasen a couple of seasons back, under a trademark forceful ride from Danny Cook.

However, he will face competition for the lead tomorrow, from both Argentix and Brother Scot.

If Cook can find a way to navigate that issue, he could be too good for his rivals – I  would just be keener on his chances, if he didn’t have that potential issue to overcome.

Finally, Shamilan has been well backed for the closing bumper (3:40) – presumably on account of Ronald O’Learys excellent record in the UK with bumper debutants.
He may well be good enough – but at the prices, I’m far more interested in Henry Dalys Tepak.
Daly does quite well with bumper horses himself – and he’s sent this one a long way (from Shropshire).

The horse was thought good enough to makes its debut in a particularly strong bumper at Newbury – and whilst he never featured in that race, he did still finish mid division.

This will be much easier – and with that experience under his belt, there is no way he should be a 16/1 chance (which is the price he can be backed at this evening).