Wednesday October 18th

Review 

As it transpired, the morning market moves didn’t provide too good an indicator of the afternoons events at Wetherby (this can happen, it’s the late market moves which tend to be the most significant)

That said Cyrius Moriviere never looked like wining the 2:45 contest.

Instead, Popleys Girl showed massive improvement on her chasing debut, to fend off Cooking Fat.

Finding the winner wouldn’t have been easy, whatever method you had used!

Ballotin defied the morning market weakness to win the feature race at 3:45.

In fairness, he wasn’t quite so weak in the late market, returning an SP of 13/2.
He just managed to hold off Monbeg River, who was sent off a relatively well backed 4/1 shot.

Lough Salt remained suitably strong in the market – and won the 4:20 at 11/2.

He was definitely backable…

Seamor and Keep in Line were both well backed in the finale – but they couldn’t get to Master of Irony.

Both of the placed horses looked as if they would benefit from a step up in trip…

Lunchtime Update

There have been some really significant market moves this morning, in the Wetherby races – and it will be fascinating to see how many of them foretell the outcome of the races…

According to the market, Cyrius Moriviere can’t win the 2:45 !

He was 2/1 last night – but is double that price now, on BF.

The market says the race is between Minella Aris, Cracking Find and Cooking Fat – with Cracking Find probably the best backed (16/1 last night, in to 5/1).

The market is suggesting that Ballotin will need the run in the 3:45: he’s drifted from 4/1 to 8/1.

Monbeg River on the other hand, is very strong (6/1 in to 4/1)…

Lough Salt has been quietly backed in the 4:20 and is now a 7/1 chance.

I do like his profile…

Whilst in the finale: Seamor, Keep in Line and Top Ville Ben have all been backed – with just Utility weak in the market (of the ones I mentioned).

Evening Preview 

They race at Wetherby and Punchestown tomorrow – and it’s the former card which has the best betting opportunities…

Wetherby

Cyrius Moriviere is the one of most interest, in the novice chase at 2:45.

He could be much better than he’s shown so far over fences – but things will need to go right for him  (and that didn’t happen last season).

That said, 2/1 is tight on his seasonal debut – and I’d be more tempted by the 8/1 on offer this evening, about Cooking Fat…

The Bobby Renton chase at 3:45 is the high light of the Wetherby card – and top weight Ballotin is the most interesting runner.

He’s been bought from France and had some good form over there.

The jockey booking (a 7lb claimer rather than Richard Johnson) is a little off putting – but I’m sure the market will advise (he’s 9/2 this evening)…

Monbeg River is the other one of interest – particularly as he can go well fresh.

A general price of 6/1 about him, seems fair…

In the 4:20, Lough Salt is the most interesting one, on his second run (first over hurdles) for Richard Guest.

He can be backed at 9/1 this evening – and that’s tempting.

The final race on the card, is arguably the most interesting of the lot…

Cases can be made for Seamor, Utility, Keep in Line, Top Ville Ben and even Ballyalton.

The market will almost certainly advise on this one – so I’ll be keeping a keen eye on developments (Seamor and Keep in Line are the 2 of most interest, with regard to tomorrows race).

Punchestown

Just a quick mention for the novice chase, at 4:10, where the top class Petit Mouchoir makes his fencing debut.

He’ll probably win – though he does face at least one very talented rival in the shape of Brelade (who also has chasing experience).

It’ll very much be a race to watch, with an eye to the future…

Friday 13th October

Review

In the 3:10 race, Ballyoptic was sent off at 3/1 (the same price he opened at last night); whilst Winningtry drifted to an SP of 6/1 - and the lack of market strength behind them proved prophetic, as they both ran as if the race was needed.

I would expect improved performances next time…

Similarly, the market was right not to be interested in either Flying Angel (out to 9/2) or Frodon (out to 6/1) in the 3:45, as they too both ran as if the outing was required.

Knockgraffon remained strong in the betting and was sent off 3/1.
However he ran disappointingly (too keen) and was ultimately well beaten.

Twist of Ginge remained strong in the market (SP of 13/2) for the 4:55 and ran a fair race – but could only finish third.
There may be some improvement in him – though he does look quite limited…

Lunchtime Update

Whilst you have to be careful about reading too much into morning price moves (they are often caused by tipsters, who have spotted a bit of value - and pointed it out to numerous others !), there have been a couple of interesting market moves at Newton Abbot, this morning…

Most interesting is Knockgraffon in the 3:45 race.

He was 8/1 early yesterday evening – but is only half that price now.

To balance that, Frodon and Flying Angel (in particular) are very weak, suggesting that both are likely to need the run.

Black Corton is strong in the market and may well prove to be the one that Knockgraffon has to beat…

Twist on Ginge was backed over night, for the 4:55 – which is always an interesting thing (I’m not sure who would be responsible for that !)

He’s remained solid at 7/1, through the morning, suggesting he’s ready to produce a good run.

Nothing else in that field has moved either way, in the morning betting…

There’s not been much market movement in the 3:10 race, either…

Both Ballyoptic and Winningtry remain at the prices they were available at yesterday evening (3/1 and 4/1 respectively).

I wouldn’t have been surprised to see one of them backed down to closer to 2/1 – but the current suggestion is that both may improve for the outing (though the market may take a stronger opinion, closer to the off)

Evening Preview 

There’s a decent card at Newton Abbot tomorrow (for the time of year), which features a couple of quality races (one over hurdles and one over fences):

The hurdle race is off at 3:10 – and Ballyoptic and Winningtry, look very much the pair to focus on (though unfortunately, they head the betting).

The former is a graded animal - and I’m sure he would be capable of defying a mark of 157 – particularly with Zac Bakers 5lb allowance taken into consideration.
In theory, there is a question mark over his fitness - though he won first time last year and NTD usual has his ready.

However, even if he is spot on, he may struggle to concede 26lb to Winningtry.
He looked a horse on the up, last spring and his current mark of 131 could significantly under-estimate his ability.

Ballyoptic is a 3/1 shot this evening – with Winningtry available at 4/1 in places.
The market will doubtless tell the tale – but Winningtry doesn’t strike me as a bad bet at that price (accepting the unknown concernig his fitness).

The next race on the card (3:45) is a good quality intermediate chase.

Based purely on handicap marks, Black Corton is the one to beat - but I don’t like the fact that STD seems to have chosen Frodon ahead of him (leaving 5lb claimer Brony Frost, who is unable to claim, on Black Corton).

Flying Angel is the class act in the field – but he was very inconsistent last season.

The market will likely advise on his chances.

At the prices available this evening, Knockgraffon is the most attractive option. He’s held by Flying Angle on his final run from last season – but I’m not sure that was his form.
He had earlier been very impressive, when winning at Newbury – and if Dan Skelton has got him back to that level, he’ll be tough to beat.

15/2 is the best price currently on offer…

The other race of interest on the card, is the novice handicap chase at 4:55.
It’s an open looking contest, but I quite like the look of Twist of Ginge.

He’s currently the outsider of the field – and will be making his debut over fences.
He’s never won a race - but he’s not had many tries and doesn’t look badly handicapped on his hurdles form.
If he improves for fences – and is fit enough to do himself justice, then he should run well.
10/1 is the price this evening…

Wednesday October 11th

Review 

It was another day when it paid to be guided by the market…

Ludlow

In the opener, Sonic Wind was sent off at 7/1 (half the price available last night) – however her BSP was over 10/1, suggesting that the main interest in her was from an EW perspective.

She did look like reaching the frame, as she moved into contention approaching the home turn – but her stamina then ran out and ultimately she finished well beaten.

Tracks don’t come much sharper than Ludlow – so if she can’t stay 2 miles round there, you do wonder whether she has a future over hurdles…

The race was won comfortably by The Statesman, who looks a useful recruit to the game…

On Demand was backed in to 2/1 in the 2:25 race – and ran well – but looked as if she’d improve for the outing…

There was no money for Forever Field in the 3:00 – and he ran accordingly (never in the hunt).

Mount Royale was also friendless in the market - but he ran well and only just missed out on third place.

Status Quo drifted like a barge in the 3:30 – eventually going off at 9/1 (15 on BF !).

He ran precisely the race you would have expected – coming there travelling at the third last, before fading.

He could well be one for next time (assuming the market signs are more positive).

Towcester

Castafiore was a NR in the 3:10 – and Hollywood Road ran so poorly, he may as well not have bothered turning up !

However, Coppperfacejack finally got off the mark over fences in the 4:10 – after 15 tries.

He was backed to do so, as well – going off at just 5/2 (having drifted to 4/1 at lunchtime).

It’s funny the difference having the champion jockey in the saddle, can make..!

Lunchtime Update

There hasn’t been much significant market activity this morning – just a bit of trimming of a few of last nights prices...

In fact, the most notable thing to happen since yesterday evening, is the breaking of the news, that Bryan Cooper will ride the Alan Potts horses in the UK.

That’s a big deal for Cooper, who could really do with a break, after a series of nasty injuries, over the past few years…

Ludlow

Sonic Wind has been well backed in the opener (14/1 in to 10/1) – but that could easily be people trying to avail themselves of some EW 'value'.

The Statesman has been relatively weak – though he’s still at 4/6 shot !!

With a NR in the 2:25, On Demand is now in to 5/2.

That’s a ‘watching’ price…

The market has revealed very little in the 3:00,which I find quite surprising (I’m sure it’ll change by the off time !).

Forever Field can be backed at 9/1 in places – and may be worth a small risk at that price (though if money doesn’t materialise for him, I doubt he will win).

Mont Royal is probably a bit of EW value at 20/1, in a race that could be run to suit (lots of front runners, taking each other on).

Status Quo has been backed in to 5/1 in the 3:30 – but I was half expecting stronger support.

The jury remains out on his chances (though late money would again be significant).

Towcester

Hollywood Road and Castafiore are both slight drifters in the 3:10 – and the latter in particular may be worth a small play at 15/2.

Finally, Copperfacejack is out to 4/1 in places in the 4:10 – and has a bit of a look of an EW bet to nothing…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow – at Ludlow and Towcester – with a few decent races, particularly at the former venue…

Ludlow

It’s interesting to see Bryan Cooper over for a brace of rides for Colin Tizzard/Alan Potts.

Exxaro (3:00) and Mick Thonic (4:00), both have chances – though my feeling is that if they were really fancied, Robbie Power would have come over to ride them…

On his hurdling debut, The Statesman has been installed a short priced favourite for the opener (2:00).

He is very decent on the flat (rated 93) and has been in good form, recently.

If he is able to show the same level of ability over hurdles, he will take a bit of beating.

That said, I’m more interested in Sonic Wind (at the prices, anyway !).

Sabrina Harty brings just him, over from Ireland – and that strikes me as a significant move.

He’s 14/1 this evening – and would be worth a risk (EW), at that kind of price.

In the 2:25 race, I’m most interested in On Demand.
She was very progressive last season – and I can see that continuing this season.

She’s a front-runner, so will be suited by the track – and I suspect she’ll be ready to do herself justice.

She’s a best price of 7/2, this evening…

The best race of the day, is off at 3:00.

A case can be made for a number of the runners (including Exxaro), with Always on the Run, Bob Tucker and Mont Royale, of definite interest (particularly the latter, given the form of Jonjos stable).

That said, Forever Field is possibly the most interesting of all, for Nicky Henderson.

He makes his handicap debut over fences tomorrow - but isn’t badly weighted, based on his hurdles form.

He’s a general 8/1 shot this evening – and if he’s going to win, I would expect that to be taken…

I wouldn’t expect the 13/2 on Status Quo in the 3:30, to last either...

He makes his handicap debut for Harry Fry tomorrow, having shown very little in 4 runs in novice hurdles last season.

However that’s seen him given an opening mark of 105 – which compares favourably with his flat rating of 72.

The application of a tongue tie and hood, suggest that connections mean business – though the market will likely confirm/deny that !

Towcester

Harry Skelton is at Towcester to ride a couple for brother Dan, and I would expect both to run big races…

The 3:10 race looks quite open, with Hollywood Road and Castafiore, the 2 of most interest.
The former has crack 7lb claimer, James Bowen, in the saddle: whilst the latter is the only ride on the card for Johnny Burke.

They are priced up at 3/1 and 7/1 respectively, this evening…

Finally, I’ll be intrigued to see whether Richard Johnson can get Copperfacejack home in front in the 4:10.

The horse is massively consistent – though yet to win in 15 tries over fences.
He’s finished second, 7 times tho – and Dickie replaces Charlie Poste and a 10lb claimer in the saddle...

3/1 is the price on offer, this evening…

Sunday October 8th

Review 

Today gave us a number of fine examples, of why you just have to pay attention to the market at this time of year (or you’ll end up very poor !).

Limerick

Champoleon was a massive drifter in the 2:15 – his BSP was 92 !

Maybe not too surprisingly, he never featured (though the did run on, to take a distant 4^th place).

The Birdie Crowe wasn’t quite as weak in the market – but he didn’t feature either…

On form, Some Plan could reasonably have been sent off favourite in the 3:55 – so the fact he actually went off 5/1 outsider of 4, was always likely to be significant.

And sure enough, he ran like a horse who needed the outing: travelling well in the lead, until making a mistake and weakening rapidly.
He’s likely to be a different proposition next time…

In stark contrast to Champoleon and Some Plan, Total Recall was backed as if defeat was out of the question in the Munster National.

An SP of 2/1 in a competitive 16 runner handicapped chase is bordering on ridiculous – but he won doing hand springs…

Alpha Des Obeaux was the only horse backed against him – and he finished second, well clear of the rest of the field.

I suspect the first 2 are very decent – and I could certainly see them making their mark in graded company…

Kelso

McKenzies Friend went off a well backed 5/1 shot – but started in last place – and stayed there !

The horse is in danger of becoming an enigma.

I’ll be intrigued to see what is changed, the next time he runs (expect a step up in distance – and some head gear).

Just Cameron was very weak in the betting in the 4:20 (SP of 20/1) – and was another who ran accordingly.

I suspect connections will want to see his mark dropped a few pounds before he’s allowed to take a real interest in his races…

Whilst Topham Bay was a little disappointing in the finale…

Ultimately, he finished fifth – but was never in with a chance of winning.

I would expect him to be stepped up further in trip, next time…

Uttoxeter

Solstice Star ran the solid race I expected in the beginners chase at 3:30.

He finished third behind another solid one, in the shape of Aqua Dude.

I suspect it was a decent contest and Templeross, Deauville Crystal and Allee Bleu are all likely to improve for the experience…

Finally, Audacious Plan was another to be backed as if defeat was out of the question (SP of 7/4).

And he did indeed look like collecting for most of the race (touched 1.03 in-running).

However, he didn’t quite get home and was caught after the last.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go one better, next time…

Lunchtime update

Limerick

Champoleon and The Birdie Crowe remain the outsiders of the field in the 2:15 – but that’s fine, I wasn’t expecting them to be backed.

They are worth a tiny interest at best prices (25/1 & 50/1)

Childrens List is weak in the betting in the 3:55, which is understandable – but so too is Some Plan…

The latter is now at a very backable 4/1 – though negative market vibes are always worrying, for a seasonal debutante…

Total Recall is solid enough in the market for the Munster National – but On Fiddlers Green is very weak (presumably on account of the soft ground).

The late market moves are likely to be key in this contest…

Kelso

There has been money for McKenzies Friend in the opener (1:35) – but that’s nothing new !

I certainly wouldn’t chase him down to a silly price (he’s 4/1 in a place, now)

Bohernagore is a NR in the 2:05.

Just Cameron can now be backed at 18/1 in the 4:20 – I did say his price might double !
He’ll probably need the run – though he is likely to make a decent pre-race back to lay in running, at current odds…

Topham Bay has remained solid in the market for the 5:20.

He’s looks a good EW call at 9/1…

Uttoxeter

Solstice Star has been well backed for the beginners chase at 3:30 (in to 8/1).

That said, I suspect it’s mainly because he is the most likely to run his race (so was decent EW value).

Finally, Audacious Plan is now in to 7/4 in the 4:35 (he actually opened at 5/1, yesterday evening).

I couldn’t back him at that price – but it won’t stop him from winning ! 

Evening Preview 

It may not be the ‘mid-week’, but there’s some really interesting races tomorrow – at 3 different courses – and I can’t resist offering an opinion or two !

Limerick

I’ve already posted my view on the Munster national (4:25) in the forum – but just to confirm, I think Total Recall, now under the care of Willie Mullins, is very much the one to beat.

If he is beaten, then I think it will most likely be by On Fiddlers Green...

They can be backed at 9/2 and 12/1, this evening – which strikes me as very fair.

The novice hurdle at 2:15, looks a lot more open than the betting implies…

No result would particularly surprise me, so I’d be inclined to go with the 2 outsiders in the field: Champoleon and The Birdie Crowe.

They can be backed at 22/1 and 40/1 respectively – and are both worth a very small risk at those prices..

Over a trip short of his best - and on his seasonal debut, Childrens List looks a suspect favourite in the 3:55 – the question is what to take him on with…

I think Some Plan is probably the best horse in the race – and hopefully his stamina will last out…

He can be backed at 9/4 this evening. 

Kelso

In the opener (1:35), it’s fascinating to see McKenzies Friend making his debut for Phil Kirby…

I tipped him at Wincanton last season, when he was trained by Oliver Sherwood, and he was backed off the boards.
However, he was very disappointing – and that was also the case on his finally run for Sherwood…

If Kirby can find the key to him, I have little doubt he can win this – and 10/1 seems a price worthy of a small risk…

In the 2:05, Bohernagore, is the one that interests me most…

He did too much, too soon last time – and could benefit from a more patient ride tomorrow and/or a drop back in trip.

He’s 7/1 this evening and that’s a fair price…

The 4:20 race is a cracker – but not really one in which you can have a strong opinion…

Most of the principals are making their seasonal debut, so it’s guess work as to which one will be fittest.

I’m a big fan of Just Cameron – and 8/1 could be a good price. Though if he’s not fully tuned, you’ll probably be able to get double that, close to the off !

The first ‘eye catcher;’ of the season runs in the finale: Topham Bay.
He caught the eye last time, when staying on really well over a trip, 2 furlongs shorter than tomorrow.

Everything looks  in place for him to run a big race tomorrow – but he faces at least a  couple of very dangerous opponents in the shape of Betancourt and Chapel Stile.

In fairness, neither of them is bomb proof - but equally both could be big improvers.

Market moves will be interesting (it's currently 9/4 Betancourt; 6/1 Chapel Stile; 9/1 Topham Bay).

Uttoxeter

There’s a fascinating novice chase at 3:30 – but all of the principals are making their seasonal debuts, so it’s not an easy one to solve…

It’s probably a race to watch, with an eye to the future,  though Deauville Crystal is quite interesting, in receipt of a lot of weight; Whilst Solstice Star has plenty of chasing experience, and that could give him an edge.
They are 7/1 and 10/1 respectively, this evening.

Audacious Plan has already been backed in the 4:35 – but that’s not too surprising…

He makes his debut for Dr Newland tomorrow – and is handicapped to win.

If he’s ready to do himself justice (and I would guess that he is), then 3/1 is a fair price…

Thursday October 5th

Review

The market support for Herewego Herewego, in the opener at Warwick, was unrelenting – and he was eventually sent off at 8/11 (having been 11/8 at lunchtime – and 5/2 last night).

He didn’t really win like an 8/11 shot – but he did win, and ultimately that’s all the counts !
I suspect he will improve as the season progresses…

Sceau Royal was also well backed (1/2 into 1/3) – and he did win like a 1/3 shot.

Again, today is likely to be just the first step of a fruitful campaign…

I was a bit concerned that the apparent market strength of Tanarpino and Aviator in the 3:50, was actually down to the market weakness of the favourite Resolution Bay – and that proved to be the case…

Aviator was back out to 12/1 at the off: and whilst Tanarpino was sent off at 4/1, he wasn’t overly strong in the betting, close to the off.
Ultimately, neither of them was placed – but both ran reasonable races, and I would expect them to improve for the outing.

The weakness in Resolution Bay proved spot on – and he simply looked of limited ability.
I suspect he will be switched to fences, sooner rather than later…

Ballycross continued to be well supported in the 4:00 – and whilst he ran a fair race, he wasn’t quite good enough.

The market suggested that Sego Success would need the run – and that was how it looked in the race, with him just run out of it, close home.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go one better net time (particularly if a visor is applied instead of cheekpieces).

At Huntingdon, Royal Plaza travelled really well in the 2:00 – and looked likely to win (touched 1.2 in running).

However, he wasn’t quite able to hold off Deauvuille Dancer.

Finally, my ‘short list’ of 6 in the bumper, managed to proved the first 3 home – and at odds of 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 !

The forecast paid £297 – and the trifecta £2,800 !
Shame I only thought about the exotic bets, after the runners had crossed the line !!

Lunchtime update

There have been some very interesting market moves, this morning…

In the opener at Warwick, Herewego Herewego has been really strong, and has been cut from a best price of 5/2 last night, to a best price of 11/8.

The suggestion is that he will take a deal of beating…

Conversely, Resolution Bay has been really weak in the 3:50.
He was 6/4 last night – but can now be backed at 3/1.

My feeling was that 6/4 was too short – and at 3/1, he may actually represent a bit of value (the market seems to have over-reacted).

With Resolution Bay so weak, it’s not too surprising to see that a number of his rivals are now significantly shorter in the market.

The 9/1 on Tanarpino is now 4/1: whilst Aviator has also halved in price, from 14/1 to 7/1…

I suspect that the market will swing back a little (in favour of Resolution Bay), before the race gets under way…

In the 4:25, Ballycross has usurped Sego Success at the head of the market.

I don’t find that too surprising – but we will have to wait until closer to the off, for confirmation of the fitness levels of the respective horses (the current suggestion is that Ballycross is straighter than Sego Success).

At Huntingdon, Royal Plaza has drifted to 4/1in the 2:00 race…

I find that a little surprising and would certainly be tempted by him, at that price…

The market is yet revealed anything in the bumper which closes the card (5:15).
Gibeno is favourite - but that was the case last night…

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of meetings tomorrow: at Warwick and Huntingdon, with the former course providing the more interesting action…

In the opener (2:15), it looks highly significant that Barry Geraghty is over, for just the one ride - and on a horse who’s not raced for 18 months…
Provided Herewego Herewego remains strong in the betting (currently 5/2, best) - suggesting he is ready to run his race - then despite the absence, he is likely to take the beating…

There’s a potentially top class novice chaser running in the 3:20, in the shape of Sceau Royal.

He was sixth in last seasons Champion hurdle – and that’s form which non of his rivals can match…

He was also quickly into his stride last season, so I wouldn’t expect fitness to be an issue.

That said, at 1/2, I’ll be watching, rather than backing him…

The 2 most interesting races of the day, from a betting perspective, are 3:50 and 4:25…

Resolution Bay has been put in very short in the 3:50 (6/4) and I couldn’t be interested in him at that kind of price…

I’d be more inclined to take a risk on Tanarpino or Aviator, at much bigger prices…

There is a chance that Tanarpino is using this as a warm up, before returning to fences.

However, he ran really well on his seasonal debut 12 months ago (over fences) – and is the only runner at he course, for Jenny Candlish and Sean Quinlan.

He’s 9/1 tonight and I would expect the market to advise on his chance…

Aviator has only run once in the past 18 months, so is quite speculative.

However, provided he retains his ability, he’s not badly treated off a mark of 118.

He could be worth a small risk at 14/1…

Sego Success is more than capable of winning the 4:25 race – if primed to do so…

The bookies are taking no chances with a price of 9/4 this evening – but it’s arguably a fair price, provided he’s ready to run his race…

Second fav, Ballycross is the other one of major interest.

Again, you are taking a risk on his fitness (though most Nigel Twiston Davies runners are raring to go, at this time of year), but he has potential – and if you can get 5/1, that’s a fair bet.

At Huntingdon, I like the look of Royal Plaza, who is making his debut for Olly Murphy in the 2:00 race.

Formerly trained by Alan King, he always looked capable of being better than his current mark of 120.

He’s a 3/1 shot this evening, which doesn’t strike me as too bad a price (though it’s quite a competitive race)…

Finally, there are lots of potentially interesting horses running in the bumper which closes the card, at 5:00.

The market will doubtless advise on the likely outcome, with Cloud Hopper, Gibeno, Normal Norman, Cuckoos Calling, Queen Montoya and Shaella, all of potential interest, if backed…

Wednesday October 4th

Review

As is so often the case at this time of year (when fitness can only be guessed at), the market proved extremely prophetic…

In the 2:45, It’s a Game was a huge drifter (out to 25 on BF, at the off), suggesting that the run was badly needed.

And that’s exactly how he ran…

He travelled like a well handicapped horse – even touched 2.2 in-running – but ultimately tired and finished a well beaten third…

The expectation will be that he will improve hugely for the run – and therefore be of great interest next time.

That may be the case – but equally, first time back is often the best time to catch a horse, following a long break.
As with today, the market will doubtless guide…

Grand Coureur ran disappointingly in the same race.

He was well supported in the lead up to the race (into 6/1) – however in the crucial 5 mins prior to the off, he was relatively weak in the market (BSP 9.8).

Ultimately, he didn’t run very well – and with no obvious excuse…

The market weakness of It’s a Game in the 2:45, was surpassed by that of Abbotswood in the 3:50…

He was 3/1 last night – but was sent off at 18.5 on BF !

That is a monumental drift, by anyones standard – and illustrated the risks associated with supporting horses which are making their seasonal debut…

Like It’s a Game, he ran really well, considering – and only weakened out of third place, after jumping the last.

However, he was no match for the 2 others of interest in the race…

Cuirassier Dempire was solid throughout the day – and won as he liked.

He looked a horse capable of ranking much higher…

Anteros was also very solid in the market.

12/1 last night, his SP of 5/1 suggested a big run was expected - and that’s precisely what he delivered.

He was just unlucky to bump into a rival who had at least a stone in hand of his mark…

Lunchtime update

It’s a Sting and Grand Coureur, have both been backed in the 2:45 – but in the case of the former, not as much as I thought might have been the case…

I wouldn’t have been surprised to see the 14/1 of last night, 7/1 by now – however, 12/1 is still available in a couple of places…

If he’s going to win, then I expect him to be very well backed (less than 7/1 at the off).

I guess there is still time – though I would really have expected more support to have materialised by now…

I didn’t expect Grand Coureur to be as strongly supported – so a general trimming of 12/1 into 8/1, would count as decent support.

Provided he doesn’t drift prior to the off, I would expect him to run a big race….

Cuirassier Dempire has remained rock solid in the market for the 3:50.

9/4 feels a bit too short – but if he remains at that price, he is the most likely winner…

Abbotswood has drifted out to 11/2 in a few places and is maybe worth a small risk at those odds (he did look a bit too short in the market, last night).

Anteros has been well backed, into 8/1 - pretty much scuppering the EW angle with him...

Evening Preview 

There are a couple of very interesting looking novice handicap chases, on tomorrows Bangor card…

The first of them is off at 2:45 – and I like the look of 2 of the longer priced horses (well, they are longer prices this evening !).

It’s a Sting hasn’t run for nearly 600 days – and he hardly covered himself in glory when he was last on the track.

However, he finished behind some very useful horses in all of his novice hurdles – and was sent off 3/1 fav on his chasing debut in a decent contest at Stratford, 2 years ago.

He did nothing that day – but both his hurdles form and his price that day, suggest he is capable of being much better than his current lowly rating of 105…

Oliver Sherwood has an ability to bring back horses from a long absence – and he is Leighton Aspells only ride of the day.

He’s 14/1 this evening – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him heavily backed tomorrow…

The other one of interest, is Grand Coureur.
Again, he comes with risks, as he is making his chasing debut.
However, his best run over hurdles was also at Bangor - and on that form, he is attractively handicapped off a mark of 101.

Nick Williams has won with his 2 most recent 2 runners (so is in form) – and there is a chance this one can bring up the treble.

Again, 12/1 is an attractive price (which is unlikely to last !)

Things look a little more obvious in the other race of interest, at 3:50…

Anteros is an obvious route in – as we have very fond memories of him !

He’s well handicapped on a mark of 112 – and is likely to run his race. However, he may find a couple of younger, more progressive horses too good for him…

The 2 in question are Cuirassier Dempire and Abbotswood.

The former broke his duck over fences, last time at Worcester and looks the type to keep on improving.

Abbotswood makes his chasing debut tomorrow - but is an ex PTP winner, so could well improve for fences.

The issue, is the prices: with Cuirasser 9/4 fav – and Abbotswood a 10/3 shot.

Maybe they will drift tomorrow…

Anteros is more attractive at 12/1 (in a place) – and if all 8 make it to post, he would hold a fair bit of EW appeal, at that price.

Monday October 2nd

Review 

Stratford

Aunty Ann was ponderous over the first few fences – and never really featured in the 2:30.

There is a chance that she might want further – but there is also a chance that she’s just not that good !

Bramble Brook was backed down to a ridiculous 11/8.

In fairness, he did look like collecting – but found little when put under pressure.

As it was his seasonal debut, he could be worth another chance – though the market suggested that he was ready to do himself justice today.

Riverside Theatre travelled well, until stopping sharply.

Apparently he burst a blood vessel, so would have to be treated with caution, in the future…

Abbreviate was never in with much of a chance in the 4:00 – though he did run on late, in reasonably tenacious style.

The eye catcher in the race, was Valhalla.

He jumped and travelled really well – but didn’t get home.

As over hurdles, an aggressive ride over 2 miles, could well be the answer…

Both Rouergate and Scented Lily, ran fair races in the finale – without looking likely to win.

Both still have scope for improvement – but don’t look world beaters at this point in time.

In the 3:30 race, I thought Tanit River ran better than the result suggests.

He could be of interest, if sent back over fences, next time…

Newton Abbot

Robbie Power managed to get up a double on 2 of the Alan Potts horses, with Sizing Platinum looking the one that he had come over to ride.

He won well – despite continued market support for De Faoithesdream.

In the circumstances that one got a slightly strange ride – as he likes to race prominently, but was held up.

My feeling was that there could still be another race in him – maybe in a bigger field (possibly even at the Showcase meeting !).

Lunchtime update 

Stratford

Aunty Ann has been well backed in the 2:30 race – you can’t now beat 5/1.

That strikes me as a fair price.

Bramble Brook is now favourite – which I can understand, even if I’d struggle to support him at 3/1 !

Riverside Theatre on the other hand, is a big drifter…

Abbreviate is still the outsider of the field in the 4:00 – but a best price of 9/1 has now become 6/1.

Again, that seems fair – though there is a lot of uncertainty in the race…

In the final contest, Rouergate is out to 6/1.

That is probably significant (bearing in mind how well Andrew Brooks bumper horse was backed on Saturday, at Market Rasen) – though there is still a chance he will get backed late…

Scented Lily is a 16/1 shot – and could be worth a tiny play at that price.

Newton Abbot

Passed its early morning inspection – but the ground will be very heavy.

Robbie Power is over to ride a few Alan Potts horses, for Colin Tizzard – which is probably significant.

Heavy ground and lots of seasonal debutantes, mean that extreme caution should be exercised…

However, in the 3:20, I will be very tempted by De Faoithesdream.

He could be in decline – but he will be fitter than most of his rivals; will love the mud – and is very well handicapped.

I can see him making all in this – and whilst I was hoping for better than 11/2 (he was 9/1 yesterday evening), I can understand the market support…

Evening Preview

I’ll resist commenting on Newton Abbot until tomorrow, as it needs to pass an early morning inspection, due to very heavy ground…

There is a fair card at Stratford, however – and a few races of interest:

In the handicap chase at 2:30, Aunty Ann catches the eye, for Charlie Longsdon.

She is a winning pointer, who will be having her second run over fences – and has a 7lb claimer in the saddle (despite Johnny Burke riding at the meeting).

She’s a best price of 8/1, this evening…

Bramble Brook is also quite interesting – but that’s based more on potential, than what he’s actually achieved on the course.

Furthermore, a best price of 7/2 looks tight (though I’ve no doubt it will be shorter, if he’s really fancied !).

Riverside City is the third one worthy of a mention.

I’m sure he’ll be winning sooner rather than later, for Jonjo – but tomorrow’s trip of 2m5f looks too short, to me.

I’ll just be keeping an eye on him…

The novice chase at 4:00, looks a really right contest…

There’s only 5lb between all of the runners, on hurdles ratings – and all are young enough to improve for fences…

In the circumstances, Abbreviate hold most appeal, as outsider of the field (9/1 this evening).

He also ran well on his seasonal debut last year, suggesting that he can be effective, fresh.

I’d struggle to choose between the other 4 – but there is little incentive to do so, when you can’t beat 4/1 on any of them…

Finally, in the bumper at 5:00, Bryan Cooper is back over for a single ride for Andrew Brooks.

He rode an impressive winner for Brooks at Market Rasen on Saturday - and there must be a chance it will be same case tomorrow.

However, the bookies aren’t taking any chances, and it’s hard to recommend a price of 7/2, when you are effectively betting blind…

Scented Lily makes more appeal on debut for Charlie Longsdon.

The stable is in good form – and she’s the only ride on the card for Johnny Burke.

14/1 looks a decent price – and it’ll be interesting to see what the market eventually makes of her…