Friday 13th October

Review

In the 3:10 race, Ballyoptic was sent off at 3/1 (the same price he opened at last night); whilst Winningtry drifted to an SP of 6/1 - and the lack of market strength behind them proved prophetic, as they both ran as if the race was needed.

I would expect improved performances next time…

Similarly, the market was right not to be interested in either Flying Angel (out to 9/2) or Frodon (out to 6/1) in the 3:45, as they too both ran as if the outing was required.

Knockgraffon remained strong in the betting and was sent off 3/1.
However he ran disappointingly (too keen) and was ultimately well beaten.

Twist of Ginge remained strong in the market (SP of 13/2) for the 4:55 and ran a fair race – but could only finish third.
There may be some improvement in him – though he does look quite limited…

Lunchtime Update

Whilst you have to be careful about reading too much into morning price moves (they are often caused by tipsters, who have spotted a bit of value - and pointed it out to numerous others !), there have been a couple of interesting market moves at Newton Abbot, this morning…

Most interesting is Knockgraffon in the 3:45 race.

He was 8/1 early yesterday evening – but is only half that price now.

To balance that, Frodon and Flying Angel (in particular) are very weak, suggesting that both are likely to need the run.

Black Corton is strong in the market and may well prove to be the one that Knockgraffon has to beat…

Twist on Ginge was backed over night, for the 4:55 – which is always an interesting thing (I’m not sure who would be responsible for that !)

He’s remained solid at 7/1, through the morning, suggesting he’s ready to produce a good run.

Nothing else in that field has moved either way, in the morning betting…

There’s not been much market movement in the 3:10 race, either…

Both Ballyoptic and Winningtry remain at the prices they were available at yesterday evening (3/1 and 4/1 respectively).

I wouldn’t have been surprised to see one of them backed down to closer to 2/1 – but the current suggestion is that both may improve for the outing (though the market may take a stronger opinion, closer to the off)

Evening Preview 

There’s a decent card at Newton Abbot tomorrow (for the time of year), which features a couple of quality races (one over hurdles and one over fences):

The hurdle race is off at 3:10 – and Ballyoptic and Winningtry, look very much the pair to focus on (though unfortunately, they head the betting).

The former is a graded animal - and I’m sure he would be capable of defying a mark of 157 – particularly with Zac Bakers 5lb allowance taken into consideration.
In theory, there is a question mark over his fitness - though he won first time last year and NTD usual has his ready.

However, even if he is spot on, he may struggle to concede 26lb to Winningtry.
He looked a horse on the up, last spring and his current mark of 131 could significantly under-estimate his ability.

Ballyoptic is a 3/1 shot this evening – with Winningtry available at 4/1 in places.
The market will doubtless tell the tale – but Winningtry doesn’t strike me as a bad bet at that price (accepting the unknown concernig his fitness).

The next race on the card (3:45) is a good quality intermediate chase.

Based purely on handicap marks, Black Corton is the one to beat - but I don’t like the fact that STD seems to have chosen Frodon ahead of him (leaving 5lb claimer Brony Frost, who is unable to claim, on Black Corton).

Flying Angel is the class act in the field – but he was very inconsistent last season.

The market will likely advise on his chances.

At the prices available this evening, Knockgraffon is the most attractive option. He’s held by Flying Angle on his final run from last season – but I’m not sure that was his form.
He had earlier been very impressive, when winning at Newbury – and if Dan Skelton has got him back to that level, he’ll be tough to beat.

15/2 is the best price currently on offer…

The other race of interest on the card, is the novice handicap chase at 4:55.
It’s an open looking contest, but I quite like the look of Twist of Ginge.

He’s currently the outsider of the field – and will be making his debut over fences.
He’s never won a race - but he’s not had many tries and doesn’t look badly handicapped on his hurdles form.
If he improves for fences – and is fit enough to do himself justice, then he should run well.
10/1 is the price this evening…