Sunday October 8th

Review 

Today gave us a number of fine examples, of why you just have to pay attention to the market at this time of year (or you’ll end up very poor !).

Limerick

Champoleon was a massive drifter in the 2:15 – his BSP was 92 !

Maybe not too surprisingly, he never featured (though the did run on, to take a distant 4^th place).

The Birdie Crowe wasn’t quite as weak in the market – but he didn’t feature either…

On form, Some Plan could reasonably have been sent off favourite in the 3:55 – so the fact he actually went off 5/1 outsider of 4, was always likely to be significant.

And sure enough, he ran like a horse who needed the outing: travelling well in the lead, until making a mistake and weakening rapidly.
He’s likely to be a different proposition next time…

In stark contrast to Champoleon and Some Plan, Total Recall was backed as if defeat was out of the question in the Munster National.

An SP of 2/1 in a competitive 16 runner handicapped chase is bordering on ridiculous – but he won doing hand springs…

Alpha Des Obeaux was the only horse backed against him – and he finished second, well clear of the rest of the field.

I suspect the first 2 are very decent – and I could certainly see them making their mark in graded company…

Kelso

McKenzies Friend went off a well backed 5/1 shot – but started in last place – and stayed there !

The horse is in danger of becoming an enigma.

I’ll be intrigued to see what is changed, the next time he runs (expect a step up in distance – and some head gear).

Just Cameron was very weak in the betting in the 4:20 (SP of 20/1) – and was another who ran accordingly.

I suspect connections will want to see his mark dropped a few pounds before he’s allowed to take a real interest in his races…

Whilst Topham Bay was a little disappointing in the finale…

Ultimately, he finished fifth – but was never in with a chance of winning.

I would expect him to be stepped up further in trip, next time…

Uttoxeter

Solstice Star ran the solid race I expected in the beginners chase at 3:30.

He finished third behind another solid one, in the shape of Aqua Dude.

I suspect it was a decent contest and Templeross, Deauville Crystal and Allee Bleu are all likely to improve for the experience…

Finally, Audacious Plan was another to be backed as if defeat was out of the question (SP of 7/4).

And he did indeed look like collecting for most of the race (touched 1.03 in-running).

However, he didn’t quite get home and was caught after the last.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go one better, next time…

Lunchtime update

Limerick

Champoleon and The Birdie Crowe remain the outsiders of the field in the 2:15 – but that’s fine, I wasn’t expecting them to be backed.

They are worth a tiny interest at best prices (25/1 & 50/1)

Childrens List is weak in the betting in the 3:55, which is understandable – but so too is Some Plan…

The latter is now at a very backable 4/1 – though negative market vibes are always worrying, for a seasonal debutante…

Total Recall is solid enough in the market for the Munster National – but On Fiddlers Green is very weak (presumably on account of the soft ground).

The late market moves are likely to be key in this contest…

Kelso

There has been money for McKenzies Friend in the opener (1:35) – but that’s nothing new !

I certainly wouldn’t chase him down to a silly price (he’s 4/1 in a place, now)

Bohernagore is a NR in the 2:05.

Just Cameron can now be backed at 18/1 in the 4:20 – I did say his price might double !
He’ll probably need the run – though he is likely to make a decent pre-race back to lay in running, at current odds…

Topham Bay has remained solid in the market for the 5:20.

He’s looks a good EW call at 9/1…

Uttoxeter

Solstice Star has been well backed for the beginners chase at 3:30 (in to 8/1).

That said, I suspect it’s mainly because he is the most likely to run his race (so was decent EW value).

Finally, Audacious Plan is now in to 7/4 in the 4:35 (he actually opened at 5/1, yesterday evening).

I couldn’t back him at that price – but it won’t stop him from winning ! 

Evening Preview 

It may not be the ‘mid-week’, but there’s some really interesting races tomorrow – at 3 different courses – and I can’t resist offering an opinion or two !

Limerick

I’ve already posted my view on the Munster national (4:25) in the forum – but just to confirm, I think Total Recall, now under the care of Willie Mullins, is very much the one to beat.

If he is beaten, then I think it will most likely be by On Fiddlers Green...

They can be backed at 9/2 and 12/1, this evening – which strikes me as very fair.

The novice hurdle at 2:15, looks a lot more open than the betting implies…

No result would particularly surprise me, so I’d be inclined to go with the 2 outsiders in the field: Champoleon and The Birdie Crowe.

They can be backed at 22/1 and 40/1 respectively – and are both worth a very small risk at those prices..

Over a trip short of his best - and on his seasonal debut, Childrens List looks a suspect favourite in the 3:55 – the question is what to take him on with…

I think Some Plan is probably the best horse in the race – and hopefully his stamina will last out…

He can be backed at 9/4 this evening. 

Kelso

In the opener (1:35), it’s fascinating to see McKenzies Friend making his debut for Phil Kirby…

I tipped him at Wincanton last season, when he was trained by Oliver Sherwood, and he was backed off the boards.
However, he was very disappointing – and that was also the case on his finally run for Sherwood…

If Kirby can find the key to him, I have little doubt he can win this – and 10/1 seems a price worthy of a small risk…

In the 2:05, Bohernagore, is the one that interests me most…

He did too much, too soon last time – and could benefit from a more patient ride tomorrow and/or a drop back in trip.

He’s 7/1 this evening and that’s a fair price…

The 4:20 race is a cracker – but not really one in which you can have a strong opinion…

Most of the principals are making their seasonal debut, so it’s guess work as to which one will be fittest.

I’m a big fan of Just Cameron – and 8/1 could be a good price. Though if he’s not fully tuned, you’ll probably be able to get double that, close to the off !

The first ‘eye catcher;’ of the season runs in the finale: Topham Bay.
He caught the eye last time, when staying on really well over a trip, 2 furlongs shorter than tomorrow.

Everything looks  in place for him to run a big race tomorrow – but he faces at least a  couple of very dangerous opponents in the shape of Betancourt and Chapel Stile.

In fairness, neither of them is bomb proof - but equally both could be big improvers.

Market moves will be interesting (it's currently 9/4 Betancourt; 6/1 Chapel Stile; 9/1 Topham Bay).

Uttoxeter

There’s a fascinating novice chase at 3:30 – but all of the principals are making their seasonal debuts, so it’s not an easy one to solve…

It’s probably a race to watch, with an eye to the future,  though Deauville Crystal is quite interesting, in receipt of a lot of weight; Whilst Solstice Star has plenty of chasing experience, and that could give him an edge.
They are 7/1 and 10/1 respectively, this evening.

Audacious Plan has already been backed in the 4:35 – but that’s not too surprising…

He makes his debut for Dr Newland tomorrow – and is handicapped to win.

If he’s ready to do himself justice (and I would guess that he is), then 3/1 is a fair price…