Saturday October 20th

Of the 3 Saturdays that I’ll be covering during the pre-season, tomorrow is the lowest key...

There are NH meetings taking place at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford - but they are not quite of the calibre of Chepstow last Saturday, or that I expect to see at Cheltenham, in a weeks time...

That said, there should still be some decent action – and more pointers for the season ahead – particularly at Ffos Las, where the Welsh Champion hurdle, is the high-light of the card…

Ffos Las

2:10

I wouldn’t ordinarily bother previewing a class 5 race, as I doubt any of the runners contesting it, will end up in a ‘Big’ race this season.
However, Ruby Fool catches my eye…

She is trained by Richard Mitford-Slade – and he did particularly well with just a handful of horses, last season (Samuel Jackson, being his stable star).

Ruby Fool ran 3 times last season and didn’t trouble the judge.

As a result of  that however, she gets to run off a mark of just 86 of her handicap debut.

The step up to 3 miles should suit – and wearing a first time hood and on the back of a wind op, she looks far more interesting than most of her rivals.

Clearly there is a lot of guess work – but I’m sure others will latch on to her…

If you can get some of the 11/1 on offer this evening, she is worth a small risk.

Selection: Ruby Fool at 11/1

 3:55

This is cracking novice chase – which may well contain one or two horses who go on to prove themselves top notch.

Vision Des Flos finished runner up in grade 1 novice hurdles at both the Aintree and Punchestown festival, last season – and is expected to do even better over fences.

He sets the standard – though a price of 11/8, is tight enough, for a chasing debutante against some potentially tough rivals.

No Comment has chasing experience from last season – and with Barry Geraghty in the saddle, he sets a fair standard.

That said, it would be no surprise to see any of the 7 other runners, perform well…

It really should be a watching race – but I may be tempted to have a small play on Angels Antics.

She was the lowest rated of the field over fences – but is a big scopey mare, who definitely looks the sort to improve for a fence.

She is trained by Nigel Twiston Davies, and his horses are in really good form: she is also owned by Ffos Las supremo, Dai Walters.

Furthermore, she won on her seasonal debut 12 months ago, so I would expect to be ready to do herself justice tomorrow.

With such a strong field, maybe each way, is the best way to play things…

Selection: Angels Antics EW at 33/1

4:25

Unbeaten on his seasonal debut (across 7 seasons !), I’ve no doubt that The New One will be primed to follow up his win in this race, 12 months ago.

And he may well be up to the task – though just a couple of months shy of his eleventh birthday, things aren’t going to be getting any easier for him…

He faces 2 or 3 potentially very tough rivals – and I wouldn’t be too surprised if at least one of them, gets the better of him…

It’s really going to depend on which horse is wound up to run its race – with the betting suggesting that Silver Streak is the most likely.

If that’s the case, then he could well take advantage of the 20lb he receives from The New One.

Mohaayed is the other one that really interests me – and at the prices on offer tonight, he is the more attractive bet.

He won the County hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham festival – and it looks significant that Harry Skelton is on board him, rather than stablemate, Ch’Tbello (who could also be given a chance).

This is definitely a race where I would expect the market to advise close to the off – but without that knowledge, I’d be inclined to side with Mohaayed.

Selection: Mohaayed at 13/2

Market Rasen

2:50

I like the look of Dentley de Mee in this – but wonder whether he will be sufficiently fit to do himself justice.

I tipped him in the EBF final at Sandown last season - and he ran an excellent race to finish second.
From a mark just 4lb higher tomorrow, he must have every chance – provided fitness is not an issue.

Ofcourse we can only guess on that score – and that makes him hard to get involved with…

In truth, he’s not the only one in the race, for whom fitness has to be taken on trust.

All of the other runners, bar North Hill and Just Milly, are making their seasonal debuts.

In the circumstances, if I did play in the race, I would probably take a small speculative stab at Just Milly.

She ran quite well on her most recent outing at Warwick – and has now been eased to a mark from which she was competitive last season.
I don’t think she is the best horse in the race - or even the best handicapped - but she could be the fittest, and that’s definitely worth something at this time of year.

Selection: Just Milly EW at 20/1

4:00

This is the best race on the card by some margin – and again, fitness is likely to be the deciding factor…

There are no question marks over The Unit, in that regard, and with his recent form with Drinks Interval having been franked by that ones performance at Chepstow on Sunday, it’s not too surprising to see him installed favourite…

That said, I would be a little surprised if he were good enough to cope with any of Romain de Senam, Ballyboley, Master Dee – or even Calipto, if they are at their peak…

Of the 4, then I would expect Ballyboley to be closest to his peak.
He was a comfortable winner of the corresponding race 12 months ago - and must have every chance of following up tomorrow, off precisely the same mark.

Based on the efforts of his runners last weekend, then I would also expect the Paul Nichols trained Romain de Senam to be ready to do himself justice.

He looks fairly handicapped - and as a 6 year old, still has plenty of room for improvement.

The booking of Conor Brace for Master Dee, looks interesting - and suggests that his connections are going to be giving it their best shot: whilst Calipto is still potentially well handicapped based on his form from a couple of years ago – provided he’s ready to do himself justice…

It’s a very hard race to call - particularly as non of the other 3 runners can be easily dismissed.

If forced, I would side with Ballyboley – but it’s a race that I might just end up watching…

Selection: Ballyboley at 9/2

Thursday October 18th

Both Willie Boy and Midnight Shadow looked likely to win at Wetherby this afternoon – but they faltered over the last couple of obstacles and each could only finish second...

I would expect them to improve for the run – with Midnight Shadow in particular, looking one to be interested in next time...

There are 3 more NH cards tomorrow – and the meetings at Carlisle and Uttoxeter both stage a number of interesting looking races.

Once again, finding winners is likely to be a challenge – but I would expect there to be plenty of clues for the future months...

Carlisle

1:40

This is certainly not a race in which you could be confident - but Conor Brace riding for Micky Hammond, definitely catches my eye...

Brace is the apprentice attached to Fergal O'Briens yard – and I'm sure he will be worth following closely, this season.

He has his first ride for Hammond in this – and his only ride of the day.
The horse he rides, is Night Messenger – and he is making his handicap debut after just 2 runs over hurdles.

Any amount of guesswork is required – but if the horse comes in for market support, I would take it very seriously.

In truth, this is a near impossible race to evaluate: Zabeel Star and Shadow Sadness are two others who look particularly interesting – though the market is already wise to them.

Selection: Night Messenger 12/1

2:10

This is another near impossible race to call, with all of the runners bar Cool Mix making their seasonal debuts – and all bar Cool Mix and Mister Kit, running for the first time over fences.

Cool Mix actually ran today at Wetherby (where he finished a creditable second) – so there must be a chance he won't compete in tomorrows race.
If he does, I think he has a reasonable chance – if he doesn't, then it's hard to find an angle...

Cave Top could be worth a small risk – despite having top weight.

He won 3 races early last season – and then competed in better class contests.

The step down in trip to 2 miles, is a slight concern – but he's a keen going sort, so may get away with it...

Selection: Cool Mix (if absent, Cave Top)

3:45

This is yet another tough race to call...

Tintern Theatre has been installed favourite - and whilst he would have an excellent chance based on his peak form of last season, I wonder if he will be at his peak tomorrow...

It wouldn't surprise me to see this go to an outsider - I just can't figure out which one !

Blakemount and Knock House are both sufficiently well handicapped to go very close – if they are near to peak fitness (and they retain most of their old ability).
The same is true of Carrigdhoun – though at 13, you would have to be a little concerned that age may have caught up with him.

Whilst Connetable has every chance, from a handicapping perspective – if he can translate his hurdles form to fences.

His trainer, James Evans, hasn't had a winner for over a year – which is obviously a concern.

However, at 40/1, I still might be prepared to take a small chance on Connetable breaking that run.

Selection: Connetable at 40/1

Uttoxeter

3:25

This is probably the most interesting race of the day...

Just a Sting is the one that appeals most – provided the ground isn't too soft.
That was apparently the issue when he disappointed at Kempton on his final start last season.

That was in a really strong, Cheltenham consolation race and Just a Sting was sent off the 9/2 fav, suggesting he is very well thought of.

Certainly, his mark of 125 doesn't look overly harsh, based on his novice hurdle form – so if his fencing is up to scratch, I would expect him to go close in this.

The list of dangers, is headed by Station Master – with Another Stowaway and Contended not far behind !

However, the above 4 named head the market, so there is no obvious value angle.

In terms of the winner, then my preference is Just a Sting.

Selection: Just a Sting 11/2

3:55

I was really taken by Mias Storm over fences last season – until the wheels came off on her final 2 runs.
I would expect her to pick up the thread this season – but I suspect tomorrows run over hurdles, could just be to blow away the cobwebs.

Certainly, I think she warrants taking on at 2/1 – the question is, with what..?

Coologue is a horse who has always gone well fresh – and he's ridiculously well handicapped, based on his best chase form.

He was horribly out of form last season – so is risky. However if he can get even close to his best chase form, he should be more than capable of winning this.
At the price on offer this evening, he is worth a risk.

Selection: Coologue at 12/1

Wednesday October 17th

Sundays action at Chepstow, was on a par with Saturdays...

I need to spend some time re-watching the racing from both days, as I'm sure there were a host of future winners on show.

A couple of things that struck me across the 2 days, were that race fitness was a significant benefit.
It was easy to assume that the reappearing 'better' horses would be able to beat those who had been on the go over the summer – but that was not the case in quite a few of the races...

Also, Paul Nichols seems to have his string well forward.

Almost all of his runners performed creditably, with him securing 4 wins...

There are a couple of reasonable mid-week fixtures tomorrow, at Punchestown and Wetherby - and whilst there isn't quite the quality that was on show over the weekend – there are some fair races taking place at both venues...

Punchestown

3:40

This is a fascinating novice chase, in which at least 4 of the 6 runners, can be given a good chance.

Ornua is just about favourite this evening, on the back of his impressive last time out win at Rosscommon.

However, he has to give 16lb (weight for age, plus sex allowance) to the Gordon Elliot trained Mitchouka – and that could prove to be too much.

Mitchouka would have won last time, if she'd not tipped up at the last - and with a clear round tomorrow, will take all the beating.

Winter Escape could be the one she has to beat, on his third run for Aidan Howard.
Formerly trained in the UK, by Alan King, the horse has always had a huge reputation – and his last time out win at Galway, suggested he might be about to fulfil it.

Cadmium is the 4^th one of major interest – and whilst he was beaten last time by Ornua, there should be little between the pair, at tomorrows revised weights.

Selection: Mitchouka at 7/2

4:10

This is the best race of the day – but it's a hard one to call...

Outlander and Road to Respect, are grade 1 performers running in a grade 3 race – but both are making their seasonal debuts and have to give wight to the other runners.

Sub Lieutenant is best in at the weights – and on the back of a win at Galway last time, is probably the one to beat.

That said, he is pretty exposed – and I would slightly prefer Snow Falcon, if that one is allowed to take his chance (the ground may be too quick for him to run).

With all of the uncertainty, it does feel more of a watching race than a betting race – but it should be a good (and informative) watch !

Wetherby

3:45

The high-light of Wetherbys open meeting of the season, is the Bobby Renton chase.

Ballyandy heads the market and this former Betfair hurdle winner, is undeniably well handicapped – if he is at his peak and able to reproduce his hurdles form over fences.

He was a bit disappointing last season, in his first season over the bigger obstacles, so now has something to prove.

He's not an easy one to take on – because of his class – but at price of 5/4, I would be tempted...

Willie Boy is the obvious alternative, on his debut for Charlie Longsdon.

He won a decent race at Newbury on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, when trained by Venetia – and looked destined for high rank.

However, he only ran twice more last season and disappointed on both occasions.
Back tomorrow, for a new trainer – and having had a wind op – I suspect he will be ready to do himself justice.
If Ballyandy isn't at his best, then I think Willie Boy will beat him.

The other 3 runners are all useful – but non have the potential of the 2 market leaders.

Selection: Willie Boy at 10/3

5:25

He may be a relatively short priced favourite (7/4) - but if Midnight Shadow is tuned up for this, he should win.

On his final outing last seasons, he won the Scottish Champion hurdle - and that was a far better race than tomorrows.

He's been raised 6lb for that win – but that's hardly punitive.

The horse is only 5, so should still have plenty of improvement in him – he also won on his seasonal debut 12 months ago (and on his racecourse debut) – so whilst there are question marks over whether he will be fit enough to do himself justice, his past record gives definite cause for optimism...

There are question marks over his 2 main rivals (Aristo du Plessis – ground: Innocent Touch – class), making it even harder to get away from Midnight Shadow.

I'm sure the betting will tell more nearer the off – but looking at things this evening, I think he should be hard to beat.

Selection: Midnight Shadow at 7/4

Sunday October 14th

The action at Chepstow this afternoon didn’t disappoint – and it was great to see some proper jump racing again !

Non of the days selections managed to come home in front – but I gave a positive mentions to both Spiritofthegame and Grand Sercy, so a few of you may have got involved with those 2.

The days 2 big races were won by horses who it would have been very difficult to select.

However, that happens at this time of the year, which is why I’m not prepared to start tipping just yet…

Of more importance, there were some real eye catching performances - and I’ll be very surprised if a few of the horses that ran today, don’t prove to be money spinners for us over the next few weeks.

That’s in the future, however..!

They race again at Chepstow tomorrow – and the meeting looks just as good as todays.

There is also the Munster National at Limerick – so plenty of action to be watched (with maybe the odd small wager, as well !).

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Chepstow

2:50

As was the case with todays novice chase, this looks a cracking contest – though it's nearly impossible to unravel.

Again, we can only guess the situation with regard to fitness, improvement and jumping ability of the main protagonists – so it's difficult to recommend getting heavily involved.

Debece is the one I like most – but 7/2 is short enough considering all the imponderables. 

Maybe he will drift nearer the off...

At the prices on offer this evening, then Enniscoffey Oscar holds some appeal. Odds of 8/1 probably under-estimate his chance.

One worthy of consideration at a very big price, is Pauls Hill.
There is lots of speculation involved but his defeat of Tommy Rapper over hurdles at Towcester last season, suggest he could be capable of holding his own in this company.

He's also bred to be a chaser - so if he's fit for his seasonal debut, don't expect the current 33/1 to last !

Selection: Enniscoffey Oscar at 8/1

3:25

This looks relatively weak, for a grade 2 event – and I was hoping I might get a price on Gosheven.

He's only run twice over hurdles – but showed reasonable form – and has loads of potential for improvement.

I also think it interesting that Philip Hobbs is prepared to throw him into such a race, bearing in mind his inexperience (it's not really his modus operandi !).

I guess it can be argued that 7/1 is not a bad price – but I was hoping for double figures..!

Of the others, then Coolaney just about sets the standard on the back of his fifth place in a grade 1 at Aintree, last season.

He may be up to winning – but if he is, it won't reflect well on the quality of the race..!

Selection: Gosheven at 7/1

4:00

On initial inspection, I was very keen on Caroles Destrier in this – but I'm cooling a little on him...

Maybe that's unfair, as he is spectacularly well handicapped – starting the season on a mark 18lb lower than he started from last season.

Admittedly, he did show very little during his last campaign – but he only ran 4 times and is still only 10 years old. He could easily bounce back tomorrow...

His current rating of 136 is 12lb lower than he was rated, when he finished second to Native River in the 2016 Hennessy – if he repeats that form tomorrow, he will win...

In fairness, taking that form literally, he doesn't have loads in hand of Double Ross.
He finished third in the 2016 Hennessy – and meets Caroles Destrier on the same terms.

The issue with him is that he's 12 - and may well be in decline. On the plus side however, he has had a recent run, so should be fit enough to do himself justice...

Outside of those 2, there are quite a few who I could be interested in...

Beat That and On Tour head the list – particularly as both are only 10 (the minimum age for a veteran) and also relatively lightly raced.

However, I'm not sure that tomorrows conditions (course, trip, ground) will ideally suit either one...

Neither Bishops Road, nor Bob Ford will have an issue with conditions – but they are risky for other reasons (form/consistency).

That said, if either one were to put its best foot forward they are handicapped to win.

Selection: Caroles Destrier at 7/1

4:35

Ballymoy is an understandable favourite for this.

He was very impressive when taking handicap hurdle at Sandown on the final day of last season – and even off a 7lb higher mark tomorrow, must have a very good chance.

The problem is a price of 9/4 in a competitive 10 runner race...

I'm a Game Changer and Vado Forte both have fair chances – but there doesn't look to be much margin in their prices, either...

At the odds available, Scheu Time is the one I like best.

Trained in Ireland by James Nash, he looked set to win a fair handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, when he took a fall at the last.
He gets to run from a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow – and it's interesting that Nash has seen fit to again travel over with him.

He can be backed at 10/1 this evening – and it strikes me that there is a bit of value in that price...

Selection: Scheu Time at 10/1

5:10

This is another really good race - and I'm quite keen on the chance of Ballyhill...

He won a decent race at Cheltenham on New Years day, getting the better of Shantou Flyer.
That one went on to finish runner up at the festival, thereby franking the form.

Ballyhill, on the other hand, did little in 3 subsequent runs.
However, as a result, he gets to run tomorrow off a mark just 1lb higher than he won from.

He's still only 7, so if anything, he should be improving.
Trip, track and ground will be fine for him – it's just a question of whether he is fit and if he copes with the fences.

At a price of 7/1, he is probably worth a small risk...

There are plenty of other potential dangers/horses of interest, headed by Barney Dwan.

That said, most of them are best watched tomorrow, with a view to the future...

Selection: Ballyhill at 7/1

Limerick

4:45

I'm not sure whether it will be tomorrow – but Blast of Koeman will win a decent race this year, mark my words...

He was unlucky not to win one last season, just touched off by the much improved Patricks Park at the Punchestown festival, having made a real mess of the final fence.

He gets to wear blinkers for the first time tomorrow, in an attempt to sharpen up his jumping. 

If they have the desired affect – and don't make him race keenly over a trip which could stretch his stamina - I think he will go very close...

Gordon Elliot saddles 5 in the race – and whilst Rogue Angel appears to be his Number 1, with Jack Kennedy on board, Our Father is the one who catches my eye.
He's always been a huge talent – but has consistently failed to deliver at the highest level.

He's 12 now – so he's not going to scale the heights that once seemed possible – however off a mark of just 130 (he was 154 at his peak) he could be absolutely thrown in.

You can't properly back him, because he's not run for 1382 days ! However, he has always run well fresh - and if Elliot does have him back close to his best, he could dot up.

He's saver material - even if a price of 6/1 is quite short...

Selection: Blast of Koeman at 14/1

Saturday October 13th - 2018-19 pre-season, day 1 !

There’s was a decent card at Newton Abbot today - and there’s an even better one at Chepstow tomorrow !

There is no ‘official’ start date for the new jumps season – but the quality of horses on show tomorrow suggest it’s now underway !

Certainly the TVB pre-season has now begun – and will run until the TVB season proper, starts on November 1st.

I’ll aim to post my views here, on any decent racing that takes place during the next few weeks – hopefully you will find them of interest, and it will also force me back into the routine of form study ! 

As for tomorrow: there are 4 races which I’ve looked closely at:

Chepstow

3:35

This really doesn’t look like a race to get involved with – particularly at early prices.

A case can be made for the 4 main protagonists – and even the outsider, Lisdoonvarna Lad, can be given a chance of sorts…

It’s going to come down to which horse is most ‘ready’: along with ability to jump fences – and improvement over the summer – and we are guessing in all those areas !

If forced, I would side with Poetic Rhythm.

He won over hurdles at this meeting last season – and also won a grade 1 over hurdles.

He should set a decent standard – assuming his jumping is up to scratch – and 10/3 seems like a fair price…

Spiritiofthgames can’t match Poetic Rhythms level of form over hurdles - but he could still have plenty of improvement in him – and 9/2 seems like a fair price.

Master Tommytucker could be anything – but he is short enough in the betting, for what he’s actually achieved: and whilst Monbeg Legend is the one runner in the field, proven over fences – and I could see him running creditably, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is good enough to win.

Selection: Poetic Rhythm at 10/3

 4:10

This is another race where I would struggle to make a compelling case for anything…

Grand Sancy is just about the most interesting runner – partially because his trainer, Paul Nicholls, has an excellent record in the race (he’s trained 4 of the past 8 winners).

4/1 is a tight enough price, based on what he’s achieved – but he could plenty of room for improvement.

The other 2 that particularly interest me, are Comrade Cotton and Knight Destroyer.

The former looks to have been primed for the race – with first time blinkers and a recent wind op.

He would be worth taking a small chance on, if you could get the best price of 7/1.

Knight Destroyer is a little more risky – but I like that fact that he’s had a recent run on the flat, to blow away the cobwebs.

He’s a similar price, which again, might represent a little bit of value.

On balance though, probably another watching race…

Selection: Comrade Cotton at 7/1

4:45

The first of 2 excellent races on the card – and I would be far more inclined to take a risk in this, than in the 2 races that precede it…

That said, it is still extremely trappy – so I won’t be betting with a huge amount of confidence !

My short list, consists of Le Patriote, Dans Le Vent, Court Minstrel and Zalvados.

Le Patriote is the one that interests me most.
He won a decent race at Ascot, before flopping in the Imperial Cup.

I’m prepared to forgive that run – and suspect he is still well handicapped off a mark of 135.

6/1 is tight enough, given the guess work involved – but he could easily go off shorter, if he is fancied by his stable.

Dans le Vent has more to prove – but has plenty of scope for improvement.

He’s very difficult to get a handle on (even ignoring fitness concerns) – but could potentially be well handicapped.

At 14/1, he is also worth having on side…

Court Minstrel won this race 12 months ago – and races off a mark 11lb lower tomorrow !

He’s 11 now (12 in the new year) – but I’m not sure that will stop him. Soft ground would tho – as he needs it to be riding on the quick side.

If it is, then he has to be backed.

Zalvados is the final one of interest.

He is actually held on form by Whatmore – but I suspect that one will run over a shorter trip on Sunday.

As his odds imply (25/1), he has a bit to prove – but I suspect the betting under-estimates him.

My tactic for the race, will be to split stakes across the 4 of them (3 in the ground is soft).
I’ll have the most on Le Patriote – and the least on Zalvados !

Selection: Le Patriote at 6/1

Dangers: Dans le Vent, Court Minstrel, Zalvados

5:30

This is such a good race ! It really wouldn’t look out of place at the Cheltenham festival !

The top 3 in the weights are all progressive young chasers, who each won a big race at the end of last season.

All 3 could easily go on to better things this season – the question is whether they will be fully tuned up for tomorrow.

I suspect not…

Rock the Kasbah almost certainly will !

He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and there is every chance he will follow up tomorrow, off a mark just 5lb higher.
He is probably the right favourite, simply because he will be trying the hardest !

The issue with him, is the price. 11/4 is very short is such a competitive race…

I’m more inclined to take a chance on a couple at bigger odds.

Silverhow is another young, progressive chaser, who was improving rapidly, at the end of last season.

He won on at Sandown on the final day of the season – and whilst that saw him raised 8lb in the handicap, he still gets in with just 10st8lb on his back, in this.

The doubt with him, is the trip – but if he gets it, I think he can go close.

Bigbadjohn will have no issue with the trip – though I’m little unsure about him going left handed.

He also doesn’t have the potential of a few of his rivals – but I suspect he will be cherry ripe and trying his hardest !

In the circumstances, 12/1 is a fair price – possibly each way.

Of the others, then Cobra de Mai could be interesting – if he stays the trip; whilst I could see Our Kaempfer out running his dismissive odds.

Selections: Silverhow at 14/1 and Bigbadjohn at 12/1

Saturday 28th April

There is some ridiculously competitive racing tomorrow – which I could easily spend hours pouring over !

However, I need to remind myself that the TVB season is now over – and for good reason !

Races are particularly difficult to solve at this time of year…

The rain at Sandown won’t help things either – so you should think of the following more as final day musings, rather than solid advice !

Good luck if you do choose to get involved !!

Sandown

1:50

4 against the field: Show on the Road; Burrows Edge; Friday Night Light and Going Gold.

At 28/1, the last named is probably the most interesting – but it’s a wide open race, in which most of the runners can be given a chance.

2:25

This looks between Top Notch and Art Mauresque.

The former should win – but is priced accordingly. The latter represents better value (provided the ground remains quick-ish) - and is certainly worth considering EW, if you can get 5/1…

3:00

Needless to say, Altior should win this – but he makes limited appeal at 1/4.

The question is whether it is worth taking him on…

On decent ground – and with an uncontested lead –  I would be tempted by Special Tiara. However, Ar Mad will almost certainly take him on – plus, he may not get his ground.

Diego de Charmil was really impressive at Aintree last time – even if his race probably took very little winning.

It would be a major shock if he were to beat Altior – but at least he arrives in top form…

3:35

This doesn’t strike me as an overly strong race (considering the value).

I was really keen on The Young Master when he fell at the first in last weeks Scottish national.

I don’t know how much that took out of him – but if he’s still in top form, I think he’s the one to beat.

I think Minella Daddy and Rathlin Rose have both got chances – but at a really big price, I’ll take a small chance of Relentless Dreamer.
Rebecca Curtis has had a horrible season – but she won the Scottish national – and it would be kind of typical, if she were to take this as well !

4:05

I think Call me Lord should win this – but I won’t be backing him at 7/4 !

4:40

War Sound will undoubtedly run well in this – but he’s got to be vulnerable over the trip – and with a hill at the end.

The tricky bit is finding one to beat him…

Ramonex is probably over priced at 16/1 – and could be worth a small play.

5:15

What a race to finish the season with !

Wait for Me won it last year – and must have a good chance of following up off a 5lb higher mark.

Le Breiul win last time – but was still a bit disappointing !

However, he gets first time cheek pieces tomorrow, so I have to keep him on side (as I thought he could be a really good horse).

I thought Ordo ab Chao ran well on his debut for Olly Murphy – and he would be interesting if strong in the betting.

Whilst I really fancied Landin at Aintree – but he ran no sort of a race.

Maybe first time cheek pieces will sort him out !
Another ‘short’ list of 4 !

Punchestown

2:35

I fancied Hurricane Darwin for the cross country chase at Cheltenham – but I fancy him even more for this !

8/1 is a perfectly acceptable price – even though you’ll probably get bigger tomorrow (I would suggest waiting).

3:10

Wicked Willie is a rare runner in Ireland for Nigel TD – and this looks a winnable race.

Rogue Angel and Fine Rightly  are both of some interest – maybe from a back to lay in running perspective (the former front runs, whilst the latter is a strong traveller)

3:50

Apples Jade or Benie des  Dieu..?

Apples Jade, of course ! If only they were all that simple J

4:25

It’s hard to look beyond the market principals in this…
Farclas, Mr Adjudicator and Stormy Island.

I’ll probably bide my time and see if I can get 4/1 on one of them.

I’d like it to be on Mr Adjudicator – but there really is very little between them…

5:00

Isleofhopesendreams has the form to win this – if he is in top form.

That’s far from guaranteed after a couple of recent hard races – but on the flip side, he is trained by Willie Mullins !

5:35

Time to get the pin out !
Spades are Trumps is unexposed – and his defeat of Paloma Blue reads very well.

He’s maybe worth a small risk at 20/1 (if you can get it !)

Friday 27th April - Punchestown Day 4

Just the 3 winners at Punchestown for Willie Mullins today ! – but they were the 3 most valuable races on the card – and he also had one beaten a short head !

It was heartening to see Faugheen bounce back and win the big race of the day.
As I said last night, 8/1 was a bit of a gift – and even his SP of 11/2 was quite generous, given that he was the outstanding horse in the field (accepting he had a couple of question marks over him).

It’s more of the same tomorrow – and it will be no surprise if Willie again bags a few winners…

4:20

He’s certainly got a good chance in this race, as he saddles favourite, Kemboy.

I respect his chance – but it’s one of  his other runners, which really catches my eye…

Pylononthepresure would have gone close at Cheltenham, if he’d not tried to take most of the fences home with him !

His jumping also let him down at Tramore last time – so it’s a concern,

However, if he does manage to get it right, he’s got the talent to go very close in this off a mark of 135.

At 25/1, he’s worth a small risk…

4:55

Willie won’t be winning this race, as he’s not got a runner ! – but I’m not sure what will !

La Bella Vida should run her race and is not a bad EW option, if you can get 16/1…

5:30

It will be fascinating to see how the unbeaten novice Samcro, fares against Champion hurdle runner up, Melon.

I do think that Samcro is the real deal – but this will be by far his stiffest task to date – and over a trip arguably short of his best.

I’d like to see him win, because it’s always good to see a top class horse – but I won’t be betting on it…

I won’t bet on Melon either, despite the fact he’s the obvious alternative.

Instead, I’ll be siding with Wicklow Brave.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago – and at 12/1, looks a good bet to repeat the feat.

6:05

Pallasator is understandably favourite for this – but he looks vulnerable to me…

Willie fields 6 against him – and again, it is quite likely that he’ll have the winner.

Scarpeta is the most strongly fancied of his runners – but that is because Paul Townend rides.

It strikes me as very interesting that Willie is prepared to let Getabird take his chance in this, just 3 days after disappointing in the 2 mile novice.

He’s the highest rated horse in the race – and is a decent bet at 7/1…

6:40

I can’t see Balnalsow winning this.

He was clearly primed for Aintree and Derek O Connor abandons him for Uxizandre.

He’s the one to beat – but comes with plenty of risks for a 5/2 shot.

Sambremont is a more interesting option, at 25/1.

He was a fair performer under rules a couple of seasons back – and is still only 8.

He may not be quite good enough to win, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds.