Thursday October 18th

Both Willie Boy and Midnight Shadow looked likely to win at Wetherby this afternoon – but they faltered over the last couple of obstacles and each could only finish second...

I would expect them to improve for the run – with Midnight Shadow in particular, looking one to be interested in next time...

There are 3 more NH cards tomorrow – and the meetings at Carlisle and Uttoxeter both stage a number of interesting looking races.

Once again, finding winners is likely to be a challenge – but I would expect there to be plenty of clues for the future months...

Carlisle

1:40

This is certainly not a race in which you could be confident - but Conor Brace riding for Micky Hammond, definitely catches my eye...

Brace is the apprentice attached to Fergal O'Briens yard – and I'm sure he will be worth following closely, this season.

He has his first ride for Hammond in this – and his only ride of the day.
The horse he rides, is Night Messenger – and he is making his handicap debut after just 2 runs over hurdles.

Any amount of guesswork is required – but if the horse comes in for market support, I would take it very seriously.

In truth, this is a near impossible race to evaluate: Zabeel Star and Shadow Sadness are two others who look particularly interesting – though the market is already wise to them.

Selection: Night Messenger 12/1

2:10

This is another near impossible race to call, with all of the runners bar Cool Mix making their seasonal debuts – and all bar Cool Mix and Mister Kit, running for the first time over fences.

Cool Mix actually ran today at Wetherby (where he finished a creditable second) – so there must be a chance he won't compete in tomorrows race.
If he does, I think he has a reasonable chance – if he doesn't, then it's hard to find an angle...

Cave Top could be worth a small risk – despite having top weight.

He won 3 races early last season – and then competed in better class contests.

The step down in trip to 2 miles, is a slight concern – but he's a keen going sort, so may get away with it...

Selection: Cool Mix (if absent, Cave Top)

3:45

This is yet another tough race to call...

Tintern Theatre has been installed favourite - and whilst he would have an excellent chance based on his peak form of last season, I wonder if he will be at his peak tomorrow...

It wouldn't surprise me to see this go to an outsider - I just can't figure out which one !

Blakemount and Knock House are both sufficiently well handicapped to go very close – if they are near to peak fitness (and they retain most of their old ability).
The same is true of Carrigdhoun – though at 13, you would have to be a little concerned that age may have caught up with him.

Whilst Connetable has every chance, from a handicapping perspective – if he can translate his hurdles form to fences.

His trainer, James Evans, hasn't had a winner for over a year – which is obviously a concern.

However, at 40/1, I still might be prepared to take a small chance on Connetable breaking that run.

Selection: Connetable at 40/1

Uttoxeter

3:25

This is probably the most interesting race of the day...

Just a Sting is the one that appeals most – provided the ground isn't too soft.
That was apparently the issue when he disappointed at Kempton on his final start last season.

That was in a really strong, Cheltenham consolation race and Just a Sting was sent off the 9/2 fav, suggesting he is very well thought of.

Certainly, his mark of 125 doesn't look overly harsh, based on his novice hurdle form – so if his fencing is up to scratch, I would expect him to go close in this.

The list of dangers, is headed by Station Master – with Another Stowaway and Contended not far behind !

However, the above 4 named head the market, so there is no obvious value angle.

In terms of the winner, then my preference is Just a Sting.

Selection: Just a Sting 11/2

3:55

I was really taken by Mias Storm over fences last season – until the wheels came off on her final 2 runs.
I would expect her to pick up the thread this season – but I suspect tomorrows run over hurdles, could just be to blow away the cobwebs.

Certainly, I think she warrants taking on at 2/1 – the question is, with what..?

Coologue is a horse who has always gone well fresh – and he's ridiculously well handicapped, based on his best chase form.

He was horribly out of form last season – so is risky. However if he can get even close to his best chase form, he should be more than capable of winning this.
At the price on offer this evening, he is worth a risk.

Selection: Coologue at 12/1